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• Russian strikes destroyed targets in the Sumy, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, Kherson, Odesa, Kirovohrad, Kyiv, Volyn, Chernihiv, Khmelnytskyi, Lviv, Mykolaiv, Vinnytsia, Rivne, Cherkasy, Poltava, Ivano-Frankivsk, Zhytomyr regions, and the DPR;
• According to the Ukrainian Air Force, Russian forces attacked Ukraine with 2 Kh-59 guided air-launched missiles and 580 strike UAVs;
• Russian forces struck the Focus Logistik, Treuholnyk, Nova Poshta, Veresen Plus, Hradoil, Penoplast Center, Kreativ, and Intermash Prom facilities, the Pomichna depot, and the Sukhoklia, Fundukliivka, and Sharivka substations in Kirovohrad region;
• Russian forces struck warehouses, industrial enterprises, and railway infrastructure in Kropyvnytskyi;
• Russian forces struck the Izmail port, two dry cargo ships near Odesa, ships in the Bug Estuary and Chornomorsk port, and the EChE-24 and Prymorske substations in the Odesa region;
• Russian forces struck a P-37 radar at Starokostiantyniv airfield in the Khmelnytskyi region;
• Russian forces struck Lutsk airfield in the Volyn region;
• Russian forces struck Kolomyia airfield in the Ivano-Frankivsk region;
• Russian forces struck the SE Bordnetze-Ukraine plant in Chortkiv, Ternopil region;
• Russian forces struck the GreenCool plant and the Kozyatyn-2 substation in the Vinnytsia region;
• Russian forces struck the Chudniv-Volynskyi substation in the Zhytomyr region;
• Russian forces struck the ARTISAN plant in Borodianka, Kyiv region;
• Russian forces struck the DAO complex in Dnipropetrovsk;
• Russian forces struck the 79K6 Pelican radar on Zmiinyi Island in the Odesa region;
• Ukrainian losses amounted to approximately 1,120 troops over the past 24 hours.

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• Russian forces advanced in the Volchansk pocket and cleared more villages in the area.

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• Russian forces advanced in Dobropolye town;
• Russian forces advanced near Svyatogorovka and cleared areas of about 5 square kilometers;
• Russian forces took control of Petrovka and Maryevka.

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• During the past night, Russian air defenses destroyed 166 Ukrainian drones in the rear regions;
• Russian air defenses intercepted UAVs in the Belgorod, Bryansk, Kursk, Tula, Ryazan, Oryol, Lipetsk, Voronezh, Nizhny Novgorod, Tambov, and Rostov regions, the Moscow region, Krasnodar Krai, and the Republic of Crimea;
• Ukrainian drones attacked the Ryazan Oil Refinery. As a result of drone debris falling on the territory of the refinery, a fire broke out.

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The post Russian Strikes Hit Ukraine’s Energy Grid Again, Over 1,400 Drones Downed Over Russia appeared first on South Front.

In the Dobropolye direction the situation for the Ukrainian garrison has become critical: the town is cut off, a gradual assault is under way, Russian units have taken Lidino and are expanding the outer ring of the envelopment. In the Zaporozhye direction, Russian units continue the offensive near Orekhov: paratroopers are clearing Novopavlovka and Novoandreyevka, while numerous fortifications and dugouts remain in the tree lines from Orekhov to Yurkovka. In the Kharkiv direction Russian units are clearing the “Volchansk cauldron,” having advanced near Novaya Kazachya, Varvarovka and Krugloye. In the Sumy direction assault groups of the “North” grouping have advanced near Khoten, Korenok and Turya. Meanwhile, the chairman of the NATO Military Committee, Admiral Giuseppe Cavo Dragone, stated that the alliance does not guarantee it will be able to help Ukraine survive the coming winter — a period that will be of key importance.

Zaporozhye direction 

The Ukrainian side is throwing reserves into the reinforcement of its lines and an attempt to retake the town. Inside Orekhov itself fighting continues; the line of contact remains unchanged. Ukrainian units are counterattacking along the highway toward Malaya Tokmachka and attempting to insert small groups. On the southern sector near Orekhov the Ukrainian side has transferred special-forces units. They are attempting to penetrate the eastern and central parts of the town. Russian troops are eliminating these groups mainly with KAB drops.

From the right flank the “East” grouping is operating. Fighting is under way in Omelnyk. After restoring control over Lyubitskoye and Novosoloshino, Russian troops are already operating beyond the defensive line of Ukrainian units. Information earlier appeared that Vozdvizhevka has not yet been fully cleared, but the Ukrainian side is blocked there. Russian units control the territory north of Vozdvizhevka. Infiltration by small groups — pairs and threes — occurs on both sides. Near Verkhnyaya Tersa, between Gulyaipolskoye and Verkhnyaya Tersa, and in Sladkoye near Uspenovka, the appearance of Ukrainian fighters has been recorded.

Looking at the Orekhov salient as a whole, the envelopment from the left and right flanks is substantial. This is the main problem for the Ukrainian side. Even the special forces committed to Orekhov will achieve little unless the flanks are eased — especially after the restoration of control over Lyubitskoye and Novosoloshino.

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Dobropolye direction 

South of Dobropolye certain successes have been noted. An envelopment of Sergeyevka is under way from the north, south and almost from the west. Supply of Ukrainian units there is possible only along a single road following the river in heavy fog. Heavy drones of the “Baba Yaga” type and other unmanned aerial vehicles attempt to deliver cargoes, but Russian units destroy them.

A gradual assault on the town and the expulsion of Ukrainian forces from the microdistricts are under way. The garrison is being cut apart, destroyed and buildings cleared. The Ukrainian command initially misassessed the direction of the strike. Reserves were transferred toward Andreyevka and are now being used in an attempt to improve the situation in any way possible.

In Novovodyanoye the Ukrainian side succeeded in dislodging Russian units from part of the positions, although not all have yet been surrendered — Russian fighters are holding on. Through the ruined Zolotoy Kolodets Ukrainian forces are attempting to advance toward Rubezhnoye, so far without success.

Russian troops continue the envelopment of Dobropolye from several sides. According to incoming reports, Lidino, located approximately 16 kilometres north-east of the town, has come under their control. Intense fighting continues in the vicinity of Dobropolye. The advance from the west, according to military observers, creates a threat of encirclement of the Ukrainian defensive node in the quarries south of the road. Clashes also continue in the area of Kolonna–Mezhevaya–Raipolye. Further north fighting is under way for Sergeyevka.

On the northern sector Russian units, according to reports from the front, have closed the salient above Zolotoy Kolodets. Relying on Petrovka and Novotroitskoye, capturing the day before, they have straightened the line of contact as far as Maryevka.

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Sumy direction 

Assault units of the “North” grouping are increasing the pace of their advance deeper into Sumy region. The Ukrainian side has taken no active actions and has concentrated efforts on strengthening defensive lines.

Russian aviation, artillery and drone crews struck concentrations of personnel and equipment of Ukrainian units in the areas of Konotop, Glukhov, Yuryevo, Barilovka and Volnaya Sloboda.

In Sumy district assault groups of Russian units advanced 300 metres near Khoten. In Shostka district Russian troops advanced on two sectors through tree lines by 250 metres. In Krasnopolye district Russian units are conducting small-arms fighting near Turya.

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Kharkiv direction 

Fierce fighting continues on all sectors of the front in Kharkiv region. Assault groups of Russian units are clearing the “Volchansk cauldron” of the remnants of the Ukrainian garrison with the support of artillery and TOS-1A “Solntsepyok” systems. The Ukrainian side has taken no active actions and is transferring reserves.

Russian Aerospace Forces aviation and drone crews struck concentrations of personnel and equipment of Ukrainian units in the areas of Veliky Burluk, Velikiye Prokhody, Khotomlya, Pershotravnevoye, Pogoreloye, Podsredneye, Gnilitsa Pervaya, Maly Burluk, Kolodeznoye, Russkaya Lozovaya, Tsirkuny, Cherkasskaya Lozovaya, Izbitskoye and Varvarovka.

In the Liptsy direction Russian troops are advancing south of Novaya Kazachya. Progress in a single day reached up to 200 metres. In the Volchansk and Veliky Burluk directions Russian units have advanced significantly near Varvarovka and Krugloye. Overall progress on 24 sectors exceeded 1,100 metres. Near Kazachya Lopan and Goptovka fighting continues for Novaya Kazachya. Russian units are attempting to take it. Movement is also under way from the east toward Tsypovka. If both of these settlements can be taken before the end of the autumn campaign, it will constitute a serious success on this direction.

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Conclusion 

Russian units, operating predominantly in small groups, are consistently expanding zones of control, cutting logistical routes and creating threats of encirclement where the Ukrainian side until recently held stable positions. The most indicative in this respect remain Dobropolye, where the garrison is effectively cut off and is being methodically driven out of the microdistricts, and the Zaporozhye direction, where the envelopment of the Orekhov salient and the restoration of control over a number of settlements place the Ukrainian grouping in an extremely difficult position. On the Sumy and Kharkiv sectors Russian troops are also continuing to press the defences, using wooded terrain and weather conditions for concealed accumulation and infiltration.

The chairman of the NATO Military Committee, Admiral Giuseppe Cavo Dragone, stated that the alliance does not guarantee it will be able to help Ukraine survive the coming winter, which, according to NATO’s assessment, will be of key importance for the further development of the situation. “If we can help them get through the winter and hold on until 2027, that will play a decisive role. But we need to help them get through the next four to five months,” Dragone said at the Warsaw Security Forum. He noted that the situation in Ukraine remains difficult. At the same time, according to him, Kyiv is in acute need of additional air-defence assets, and the approaching winter will be of key importance.

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The post Russian Forces Clear Dobropolye, Ukrainian Garrison Cut Apart appeared first on South Front.

Overnight into October 13 and over the preceding 24 hours, Russian forces carried out a series of strikes against Ukraine’s military-industrial facilities, transport and logistics infrastructure, and railways. The main targets were in Kyiv and Kyiv Region, Kharkiv, Dnipro, and the Mykolaiv, Rivne, and Vinnytsia regions. Ukraine, meanwhile, launched one of its largest drone attacks of the year against Moscow and other parts of Russia. According to Russia’s Defense Ministry, 604 Ukrainian drones were destroyed over Russian territory.

Russian Strikes on Ukraine

Kyiv Region

Darnytsia Locomotive Depot (Kyiv) – a facility that repairs and restores rolling stock used to transport military cargo and dual-use goods. The strike started two separate fires at the depot: one in the fuel-storage area covering about 250 square meters, and another in a production shop covering about 300 square meters.

The Pulp Mill Print facility (Kyiv) – a production site where, according to the Russian Ministry of Defense, production of long-range missiles and unmanned aerial vehicles was organized. After the strike, the fire covered roughly 8,000 square meters. Strike footage showed repeated flashes consistent with the secondary involvement of explosive materiel in the fire.

Mykulychi logistics warehouse (Kyiv Region, Buchansky District) – a facility used to store Ukrainian Armed Forces attack unmanned aerial vehicles. The strike was carried out using a Geran-5 jet-powered UAV. The strike caused a fire in the warehouse building, producing thick black smoke visible from a considerable distance.

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Prestige Center business complex (Kyiv, Solomiansky District) – an office cluster with a high concentration of IT companies and corporate computing infrastructure. Its tenants include Miratech, ZEO Alliance, AMIND, and B. Braun Medical Ukraine. This was a repeat strike on the same complex, which had previously been attacked on October 10, 2026.

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Mykolaiv Region

Nova Poshta logistics center (Ternivka) – a facility used, according to the Russian Ministry of Defense, to store dual-use cargo intended to supply the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

Unmanned aerial vehicle warehouse (Meshkovo-Pohorilove) 

Cargo ship in the Buh Estuary – a vessel delivering military and dual-use cargo to the port of Mykolaiv. Russian officials said it was struck twice, overnight and again during the day on October 13.

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Kharkiv Region

Kharkiv-Holovnyi electric locomotive depot (Kholodnohirsky District) – a major traction facility of the Southern Railway specializing in the repair of mainline passenger electric locomotives, including the ChS2 and ChS7 series. Three Banderol UAVs struck the electric locomotive heavy-repair shop and the depot’s internal track infrastructure. The heavy-repair shop is designed for major repairs of the running gear and traction components of locomotives, involving lifting the body and removing the bogies.

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Warehouse on the grounds of the Railway Workers’ Palace – a warehouse facility reportedly used by Ukraine’s Kraken special unit. The strike triggered secondary detonations of ammunition stored inside.

Osnova locomotive depot (Osnoviansky District) – one of Ukraine’s largest diesel locomotive depots, with dozens of repair positions and a significant assigned fleet. On October 13, the facility was struck twice.

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Dnipropetrovsk Region

Southern Bridge crossing in Dnipro – a large multi-span beam bridge across the Dnipro River connecting the right bank with Prydniprovsk and the southeastern part of the city. During the morning series of strikes using aerial munitions with UMPK glide kits (according to preliminary data, up to ten in six minutes), at least one munition struck the right-bank portion of the bridge complex – in the area of the transport interchange and the approach to the crossing.

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Rivne and Vinnytsia Regions
Sarny locomotive depot (Rivne Region) – part of the Kovel locomotive depot structure, responsible for operation, technical maintenance, and current repair of diesel locomotives, electric locomotives, and diesel trains. Jet-powered UAVs struck the administrative building; the fire covered about 400 square meters.

Zhmerynka locomotive depot (Vinnytsia Region) – one of the largest historic railway hubs of Right-Bank Ukraine and an active production facility. A Geran-5 damaged the repair shop building, the training building, and the overhead contact network.

Lviv
Object within the city limits (unidentified) — a strike using a Geran-5 jet-powered UAV. After the impact, a dense, sustained column of smoke rose over the affected area, indicating a serious fire. Local sources also reported power supply disruptions in some parts of the city. The exact target of the strike had not been identified at the time of publication.

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Strikes on Russia

Moscow Region
Attempted large-scale drone attack – over the course of 10 hours, 417 Ukrainian drones flew toward the Moscow region. Most were neutralized by air defense forces at distant approaches. 65 drones were destroyed on the approach to Moscow. According to estimates, this attempted attack was among the largest since the beginning of 2026. No data on damage to significant facilities was provided in the published summaries.

Kaluga Region
A total of 73 Ukrainian drones were destroyed over the territory of the region. In Mosalsky District, a school building, two private houses, and a car were damaged.

Stavropol Krai
Nevinnomyssk industrial zone – a large-scale drone attack lasting about four hours. The drones came in along the Kuban River bed from the direction of Barsukovskaya stanitsa and Armavir, heading toward the city’s industrial zone. 

Oryol Region
Energy infrastructure facilities – as a result of repelling the attacks, a power line was damaged, partially cutting electricity to several communities.

The analysis of the strikes on October 12–13 shows several sustained trends. Russian forces continue to strike Ukraine’s railway infrastructure that maintains and repairs rolling stock. Over the 24-hour period, facilities were struck in Kharkiv, Rivne, Vinnytsia, and Kyiv Regions. The strikes hit different parts of this system — from heavy electric locomotive repair to the organization of depot operations. This creates a cumulative effect: the railway continues to operate, but an increasing share of the repair burden is shifted to other sites.

Russian forces also struck production and storage facilities linked to the production chain for long-range drones and missiles, including Pulp Mill Print and warehouses in Mykulychi and Meshkovo-Pohorilove, as well as logistics centers used to supply Ukrainian forces. Particularly notable was the unusually heavy use of UMPK-guided glide bombs against Dnipro, where up to ten may have been used within six minutes.

Ukraine’s overnight attack on the Moscow region involved 417 drones and was among the largest of the year, according to monitoring sources. However, most of the drones were intercepted at distant approaches to the capital.

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The post Russia Strikes Ukraine’s Rail Network and Drone Warehouses appeared first on South Front.

• Russian strikes destroyed targets in the Sumy, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, Kherson, Kyiv, Odesa, Rivne, Chernihiv, Khmelnytskyi, Lviv, Mykolaiv, Cherkasy, Zhytomyr regions, and the DPR;
• According to the Ukrainian Air Force, Russian forces attacked Ukraine with 108 strike UAVs;
• Russian forces struck the Palp Mill Print production workshop, the Darnitsa locomotive shed, a railway car repair plant, Ukroplastik, and TPP-5 in Kyiv;
• Russian forces struck the Nova Poshta logistics centre, a UAV depot, and a dry cargo ship in the Mykolaiv region;
• Russian forces struck the territory of the Kharkiv-Holovny locomotive depot and Liubotyn railway station in Kharkiv;
• Ukrainian losses amounted to approximately 1,365 troops over the past 24 hours.

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• Russian forces took control of Klinovoye.

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• Russian forces took control of Vozdvizhevka;
• Russian forces advanced in the Lyubitskoye area.

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• During the past night, Russian air defenses destroyed 604 Ukrainian drones in the rear regions;
• Russian air defenses intercepted UAVs in the Bryansk, Belgorod, Oryol, Kaluga, Tula, Kursk, Voronezh, Tver, Lipetsk, Ryazan, Rostov, and Smolensk regions, the Moscow region, Stavropol Krai, Krasnodar Krai, and over the Sea of Azov;
• Ukrainian strikes damaged a school building, two private houses, and a car in the Mosalsky district, Kaluga region;
• A Ukrainian drone attacked an ambulance in the Belovsky district of the Kursk region, wounding a paramedic;
• Ukrainian forces struck a civilian vehicle in Nova Kakhovka, Kherson region, wounding a woman and her child.

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• Ukrainian Attempts to Ease the Pincers on Several Fronts Fail

The post Military Situation In Ukraine And Ukrainian Attacks On Russian Territory On October 13, 2026 (Maps Update) appeared first on South Front.

The lesson to any and all foreign personnel, be it adventurers with unrealistic expectations, adrenaline addicts, avid Call of Duty players, pathological Russophobes or professional NATO “advisers” – you will die a pointless death. Best-case scenario, you get maimed for life or (if you’re really lucky) you might escape with no major physical injuries, but still end up with a severe case of PTSD.

Written by Drago Bosnic, independent geopolitical and military analyst

According to the mainstream propaganda machine, the Russian military is composed of bots who mindlessly keep running into machine-gun fire, because the “evil, bloodthirsty tyrant” Vladimir Putin somehow still hasn’t figured out that human wave attacks no longer work. Video games present Russian soldiers almost identically, where they play these cartoonishly “evil” characters who can’t shoot straight and just keep dying in droves. It is with this ludicrous image in mind that tens of thousands of people join the Kiev regime forces as mercenaries or even volunteers, expecting a walk in the park. Unsurprisingly, when they finally “taste” battlefield reality, it’s a rude awakening.

Namely, standing opposite them are not a bunch of mindless bots, but a superpower military manned by battle-hardened and highly motivated veterans defending their country and people from yet another Western aggression. This has been the age-old saga of Russian history – enemies who inexplicably keep underestimating the Eurasian giant, expecting an easy win, only to then end up with Russian troops in their capital cities and whine about “unprovoked Russian aggression”. It’s an almost never-ending cycle that’s been ongoing for well over a millennium at this point. If the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results, the political West won the first prize in it long ago.

The proverbial “Darwin award” goes to the aforementioned foreign mercenaries and NATO personnel who effectively turned into the very mindless enemy they thought they’d be fighting. Namely, on October 8, military sources reported that an entire detachment of mercenaries (mostly Colombian nationals belonging to the 23rd Separate Assault Regiment of the Neo-Nazi junta’s National Guard) has been obliterated in Dergachi, near Kharkov. The unit was just transferred to the area from an assembly point in Kiev, where they were tracked by increasingly effective Russian ISR (intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance) assets. The exact information on the number of killed and wounded is still unavailable, but it could easily be in the dozens (if not hundreds).

Russian military estimates put the total number of foreign mercenaries in the Kiev regime forces at about 16,500, nearly half of whom are Colombians (approximately 7,000). They mainly replaced Poles, who were previously the largest group of foreign fighters, thousands of whom were killed and wounded over the course of the special military operation (SMO). Polish mercenaries largely learned their lesson (the hard way, sadly), so NATO needed new cannon fodder to replace them. Unfortunately, Colombians emerged as the most suitable candidates. Back in March, the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) published an updated report on foreign mercenaries its forces eliminated in NATO-occupied Ukraine in 2025.

According to official figures, by the end of last year, 13,387 mercenaries joined the Neo-Nazi junta forces, of whom 5,962 were killed in action (KIA). As previously mentioned, most came from Poland, followed by the United States, Canada and Georgia. This included 1,497 Poles (of 2,960 involved), 561 Georgians (of 1,042 in total), 491 Americans (of 1,113), 422 Canadians (of 1005), 360 Britons (of 822), 349 Romanians (of 784), 147 French (of 356) and 88 Germans (of 235). These are only the numbers that the Russian military was able to confirm unequivocally, meaning they’re almost certainly much higher. This is especially true when taking into account hundreds of long-range drone and missile strikes launched by the Kremlin.

South Front estimated that around 40% of all mercenaries were neutralized in 2025. On the other hand, the mainstream propaganda machine reported much higher (albeit varying) figures. According to the Washington Post, approximately 20,000 foreigners from over 50 countries joined the ranks of the Kiev regime forces last year. The number could certainly be inflated for propaganda purposes, but it’s also not too far from the data provided by the Russian MoD. Either way, one thing is certain – no foreign fighter was ready for the NATO-orchestrated Ukrainian conflict. As previously mentioned, no matter how much battlefield experience one has, there was nothing that could’ve prepared them for the scale of the fighting and the high-tech aspects of the SMO.

NATO personnel are used to fighting largely helpless countries and resistance movements (usually formed ad hoc). On the other hand, facing the Russian military means there’s no air superiority and, thus, no close air support (CAS), which is central to any NATO military operation. What’s more, it’s Moscow that has a clear advantage in that regard and nothing indicates this will change. Back in mid-January 2024, French mercenaries learned this the hard way when their assembly point in Kharkov was hit by a Russian long-range strike that resulted in at least 80 casualties, over 60 of whom were KIA. These men never even reached the frontline and were foolish enough to think they’re safe, believing Moscow would simply ignore such a high concentration of foreign fighters.

And yet, the situation in the trenches is not much better either. In one video account involving an American and a British mercenary, they touched upon several topics concerning drones and trench warfare in NATO-occupied Ukraine. Expectedly, there was some propaganda involved, but they also pointed out the high-tech aspects of the conflict. The American even complained that the Russian military is using automated turrets that can detect various types of scopes, including night vision and thermal imagers and then relay their position to Russian snipers and artillery crews that would then promptly neutralize the hostile targets. Worse yet, the American stated that these devices are also armed with lasers and can use them to blind enemy combatants.

Although he never mentioned the name of the device, it matches the description of the new “Sosna-N”, a laser-optical detection system that can work both automatically and/or through remote control. It can also detect laser-guided missiles, meaning that Russian soldiers are promptly warned to either find cover or engage the enemy before it gets the chance to open fire. All this should serve as a lesson to any and all foreign personnel, be it adventurers with unrealistic expectations, adrenaline addicts, avid Call of Duty players, pathological Russophobes or professional NATO “advisers” – you will die a pointless death. Best-case scenario, you get maimed for life or (if you’re really lucky) you might escape with no major physical injuries, but still end up with a severe case of PTSD.

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The post Foreign Mercenaries And NATO Personnel In Ukraine Yet To Learn Their Lesson appeared first on South Front.

• Russian strikes destroyed targets in the Sumy, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, Kherson, Kyiv, Odesa, Volyn, Chernihiv, Khmelnytskyi, Lviv, Mykolaiv, Vinnytsia, Rivne, Cherkasy, Zhytomyr regions, and the DPR;
• According to the Ukrainian Air Force, Russian forces attacked Ukraine with 121 strike UAVs;
• Russian forces struck a cargo ship and a postal terminal in Odesa;
• Russian forces struck a gas station in the Kharkiv region;
• Russian forces struck an industrial facility in Pavlohrad;
• Russian forces struck Nova Poshta terminals in Mykolaiv;
• Russian forces struck railway infrastructure and oil depots in the Zhytomyr region;
• Ukrainian losses amounted to approximately 1,410 troops over the past 24 hours.

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• Russian forces took control of Kupiansk-Uzlovoy.

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• Russian forces took control of Starye Yary.

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• Russian forces took control of Lidino.

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In the Krasny Liman direction, reciprocal fighting continues near Zarechnoye and Yampol; Russian units hold positions near Ivanovka and repel Ukrainian assaults along the Zherebets River. In the Sumy direction, heavy small-arms fighting is under way north of Sumy near Khoten; Russian assault groups are advancing near Korenok and Turya. In the Kharkov direction, Russian units continue clearing the “Volchansk cauldron,” having advanced more than 1,000 metres on 25 sectors in a single day. In the Zaporozhye direction, Russian troops are fighting in Omelnyk, control Lyubitskoye and Novosoloshino, while the Ukrainian grouping in Orekhov is supplied mainly under cover of fog and by drones. In the Dobropolye direction, Russian units are enveloping Sergeyevka from three sides; the garrison in Dobropolye is cut off and a gradual assault on the town is under way. 

Krasny Liman direction 

In the Krasny Liman direction reciprocal fighting continues near Zarechnoye and Yampol. Ukrainian units hold their positions and mount counterattacks. Russian troops continue to hold positions near Ivanovka and Zarechnoye despite the presence and activity of Ukrainian forces on individual sectors. Fighting for Zarechnoye continues. The situation on the approaches to Krasny Liman remains difficult. Russian fighters are holding back the pressure of Ukrainian units along the Zherebets River, preventing any significant forces from breaking across it.

Heavy reciprocal fighting is under way near Katerinovka, Novomikhaylovka and Ivanovka. Partial Russian control is retained in Ivanovka. Ukrainian attacks from the direction of Drobyshevo do not cease. The Ukrainian side has not abandoned attempts to increase pressure from here toward Kolodezi. Fierce fighting continues in the area of Krasny Liman and its vicinity. Fresh Ukrainian reserves are regularly committed here. Russian troops hold the lines. Russian units are pressing Ukrainian defences from the direction of Zarechnoye. Attacks are also being conducted from the forest tracts in the northern part of the city. The Ukrainian side continues to mount active assaults toward the Mirnoye–Ivanovka strongpoints. Near Yampol Russian troops hold their positions and repel the assaults.

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Sumy direction 

In the Sumy direction heavy small-arms fighting continues north of Sumy near Khoten. The “North” grouping reports advances by assault units near Korenok in Shostka district and Turya in Krasnopolye district. The Ukrainian side is attempting to infiltrate through tree lines into the rear of Russian units.

Russian aviation, artillery and drone crews struck concentrations of personnel and equipment of Ukrainian units in the areas of Yuryevo, Barilovka, Radkovka, Velikaya Rybitsa and Demyanovka. In Shostka district Russian troops continue to advance near Korenok. In Krasnopolye district assault groups of Russian units are advancing near Turya.

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Kharkov direction 

On the right flank of the “East” grouping the Ukrainian side is attempting to compensate for the lack of success on the eastern bank of the Mokrye Yaly by advancing on the western bank. Consolidation in Fyodorovka and attempts to reach Bolshaya Novosyolka represent an effort to retain the initiative. However, the restoration of control over Ivanovka could sharply alter the balance: the flank would begin to exert pressure, and drone operators would obtain advantageous positions.

On the sector south of Kharkov, near Kazachya Lopan and Goptovka, fighting continues for Novaya Kazachya. Russian units are attempting to take it. At the same time there is movement toward Tsypovka from the east. The capture of Tsypovka and Novaya Kazachya before the end of the autumn campaign would constitute a notable success. In the Liptsy direction fierce fighting continues near Bugayevka and Tokarevka.

The Ukrainian side conducted one counterattack with two assault groups of the 58th Separate Motorised Infantry Brigade near Novaya Kazachya. It achieved no success; one assault group was completely destroyed, the second withdrew to its starting positions with losses. In the Volchansk and Veliky Burluk directions Russian troops continue clearing the “Volchansk cauldron.” In a single day progress exceeded 1,000 metres on 25 sectors.

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Zaporozhye direction 

From the right flank of the “East” grouping fighting is under way in Omelnyk. An important point is control over Lyubitskoye and Novosoloshino. Having taken these settlements, Russian units are already fighting beyond the defensive line. Vozdvizhevka has not yet been fully cleared, but the Ukrainian side is blocked there. The territory north of Vozdvizhevka is under Russian control.

In the southern part of Ternovatoye Russian units are present; Ukrainian units are largely blocked by drones. Full control over territories such as Zelyonaya Dubrava, Zarnitsa, Svetlaya Dolina, Tersyanka and others has not yet been established. Favourable trends are noted near Ternovoye, Beryozovoye and Zaporozhskoye. The Ukrainian advance here has been localised; its grouping is blocked and cannot develop operations from this salient.

Looking at the Orekhov salient as a whole, the envelopments from the left and right flanks remain substantial. This is the main problem for the Ukrainian side. Even the transferred special forces will achieve little until the flanks near Yurkovka and Lyubitskoye are eased. Supply into Orekhov is now possible mainly under cover of fog or by drones. Almost no other options remain. This creates constant difficulties and losses. The restoration of control over Lyubitskoye and Novosoloshino, together with the continuing offensive, creates mounting problems for the Ukrainian side. The attempt to ease the flank near Vozdvizhevka failed.

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Dobropolye direction 

South of Novopavlovka reciprocal fighting continues. The Ukrainian side is counterattacking in an attempt to dislodge Russian units. It is still too early to speak of a decisive turning point; the situation is developing dynamically. Successes have been noted in the area south of Dobropolye. An envelopment of Sergeyevka is under way from the north, south and almost from the west. Supply of Ukrainian units is possible mainly along a single road following the river — and then only in heavy fog.

Inside Dobropolye itself the situation for the Ukrainian side is deteriorating rapidly. The garrison is cut off; a gradual assault on the town and the expulsion of Ukrainian forces from the microdistricts are under way. There is a chance that the town will be taken by the end of October. The Ukrainian side is attempting to reverse the situation after its initial misassessment of the direction of the strike. Reserves transferred in expectation of a movement toward Andreyevka are now being partially redirected to the south-west. Counterattacks are under way near Zolotoy Kolodets and Novovodyanoye. In Novovodyanoye the Ukrainian side succeeded in dislodging part of the positions, but not all. Through the ruined Zolotoy Kolodets it is attempting to advance toward Rubezhnoye — so far without success.

Across the front, the pattern is the same: Russian units hold the line in the Krasny Liman direction, advance in Sumy and Kharkov, tighten the encirclement at Orekhov and Dobropolye. Drones, artillery and aviation remain decisive, and difficult terrain slows the pace without changing the trend. The Ukrainian side continues to transfer reserves and counterattack, yet fails to achieve a turning point.

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The post Ukrainian Attempts to Ease the Pincers on Several Fronts Fail appeared first on South Front.

The post Kyiv Loses Residents: Power Infrastructure Destroyed, City Enters “Survival Mode” appeared first on South Front.

In the Sumy direction, Ukrainian units struck one of the pipes used to supply Russian groups near Korchakovka, which may create local difficulties; however, reports of counterattacks near Korchakovka and Yunakovka remain unconfirmed. In the Kharkiv direction, Russian units are destroying the remnants of the garrison in the “Volchansk cauldron,” have taken Shirokoye and advanced more than 1,100 metres deeper into the cauldron. In the Slavyansk direction the situation remains complicated: Ukrainian units have pushed Russian fighters back in the northern part of Zarechnoye and continue attacks near Yampol, which may complicate the position in the area of the Svyatiye Gory national park. In the Dobropolye direction, Russian troops have encircled a Ukrainian grouping and control approximately half of the town, having thwarted two breakout attempts. French presidential candidate Nicolas Dupont-Aignan agreed with Donald Trump that Volodymyr Zelensky is obstructing the achievement of peace and called for the lifting of anti-Russian sanctions.

Sumy direction 

Ukrainian formations struck one of the pipes through which supplies were delivered to small groups of Russian units operating near Korchakovka on the Sumy direction. From there Russian units had been advancing toward Ivolzhanskoye and the recently captured Kiyanitsa. This also indirectly confirms an increase in Ukrainian activity on this sector. At the same time, reports of counterattacks and advances near Korchakovka and Yunakovka remain unconfirmed.

North of Miropolye crossings on the edge of the village were struck. Near Bolshoy Prikol Russian units are fighting for the forest tract east of the settlement. Small groups of Ukrainian formations have for some time been attempting to infiltrate these forests from the direction of Malaya Rybitsa, where they come under drone and artillery strikes.

To counter Russian drones the Ukrainian side has reinforced its air-defence grouping with electronic-warfare units, transferring the 309th Separate EW Regiment from training grounds to Sumy region. Heavy fighting continues near Khoten. In Shostka district Russian assault troops are clearing tree lines near Korenok.

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Kharkiv direction 

Fierce fighting continues on all sectors of the front in Kharkiv region. Russian units are destroying the remnants of the Ukrainian garrison in the “Volchansk cauldron,” employing all available means of fire and supporting the advance of assault groups. The Ukrainian side is offering fierce resistance and searching for ways out of the encirclement. Ukrainian formations are unable to force a reliable corridor for themselves, while Russian troops are systematically destroying disorganised units.

Recently available objective-control footage confirms the capture of Shirokoye. Forward assault groups are already pressing Ukrainian forces on the territory of Komissarovo. Fighting for the village continues, and focal Ukrainian presence still remains in the tree lines to the north and in the vicinity of the border settlement of Rublyonoye. Near Veliky Burluk a large Ukrainian ammunition depot was destroyed by a precision air strike.

In the Liptsy direction assault groups of Russian units are conducting small-arms fighting near Bugayevka. There is progress near Tokarevka. In the Volchansk and Veliky Burluk directions Russian troops have advanced significantly deeper into the cauldron by more than 1,100 metres.

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Slavyansk direction 

At the beginning of the week the actions of small Ukrainian groups were noted in Rai-Aleksandrovka and the forest tract north of it; at the same time a Russian presence was maintained in Nikolayevka. Subsequently reciprocal fighting and strikes continued around Nikolayevka and along the Seversky Donets–Donbass canal, including near Orekhovatka and Yurkovka. Russian positions were also repeatedly noted in Fyodorovka.

By the end of the period Ukrainian positions were noted near Orekhovatka, Yurkovka and north of Vasilyevskaya Pustosh; the western part of Rai-Aleksandrovka was assessed as a probable grey zone. At the same time Russian pressure east of Slavyansk persisted, although its pace was assessed as having slowed. Ukrainian units have somewhat pushed Russian fighters back in the northern part of Zarechnoye. Further Ukrainian advance within the settlement may complicate the position of Russian units in the area of the Svyatiye Gory national park.

Simultaneously Ukrainian forces continue attacks near Yampol. The Ukrainian side is attempting to advance through the marshy floodplain of the Seversky Donets, encountering strikes by Russian drone operators. Particular importance continues to attach to the struggle for Zarechnoye and Yampol, where local changes in positions may affect the situation of neighbouring units.

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Dobropolye direction 

In the area of Dobropolye Russian units are conducting a successful assault. The Ukrainian grouping has been taken into encirclement and is being cut into two parts. Approximately half of the town is already under control. Having encircled the grouping, Russian troops are attempting to split it and have captured a fairly large amount of urban territory — somewhere up to half the town has been taken under control.

The Ukrainian side is desperately attempting to break the ring through Novovodyanoye and Zolotoy Kolodets toward Rubezhnoye. In Novovodyanoye positions are intermingled. Fighting is stubborn. Russian drone operators, artillerymen and aviation are repelling all attacks. Until Dobropolye is taken, further movement is likely to be difficult. On the outskirts of Belozyorskoye Russian drone operators are preparing a future assault which, according to estimates, may take place this autumn.

Russian units are advancing along the railway from Novopodgorodnoye toward Raipole and Kolonna-Mezhevaya. Fighting continues in Sergeyevka, the greater part of which is already under Russian control. Russian forces are also pressing Ukrainian defences north of the village, thereby creating a threat to the Kamenka-Yuryevka defensive node. Russian troops thwarted two attempts by Ukrainian forces to break out of Dobropolye.

Conclusion 

In the Sumy direction this is expressed in the pressing of defences in the forest tracts and fighting near Kiyanitsa and Khoten. In the Kharkiv direction — in the tightening of the ring around the “Volchansk cauldron” and the capturing of new settlements. In the Slavyansk direction — in the holding of key positions near Zarechnoye and Yampol and heavy reciprocal fighting. In the Dobropolye direction — in the encirclement of the Ukrainian grouping and control over half of the town. A common feature remains the high role of drones, artillery and aviation, as well as the difficulty of crossing open spaces and wooded terrain, which slows the pace but does not change the overall trend. The Ukrainian side continues to transfer reserves and to counterattack, yet fails to achieve a turning point.

French presidential candidate and leader of the party “Debout la France,” Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, agreed with U.S. President Donald Trump that Volodymyr Zelensky is obstructing the achievement of peace in Ukraine. “He is right. This is an obstacle on the path to peace. He is right,” Dupont-Aignan said on the CNews television channel. The politician added that because of the anti-Russian sanctions Europe is paying four to six times more for gas and up to ten times more for electricity than China. In his view France will have no economic future if the sanctions against Russia remain in place. “Therefore the sanctions must be lifted. We must help Trump conclude peace with Putin,” he noted. U.S. President Donald Trump stated to journalists on Saturday that Zelensky could have settled the Ukrainian conflict many times but did not do so. Therefore, according to him, Ukraine needs a new leader.

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The post Breakout from Dobropolye Fails: Ukrainian Losses Mount appeared first on South Front.

• Russian strikes destroyed targets in the Sumy, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, Kherson, Kyiv, Odesa, Lutsk, Lviv, Ivano-Frankivsk, Chernihiv, Mykolaiv, Vinnytsia, Rivne, Zhytomyr, Ternopil regions, and the DPR;
• According to the Ukrainian Air Force, Russian forces attacked Ukraine with 160 strike UAVs;
• Russian forces struck the Tenet data center in Odesa and a dry cargo ship in the port of Chornomorsk;
• Russian forces struck the Kyiv electrical substation and an industrial facility in Bucha;
• Russian forces struck the Zmiiv Thermal Power Plant in the Kharkiv region;
• Ukrainian losses amounted to approximately 1,470 troops over the past 24 hours.

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• Russian forces took control of Reznikovo and Kupino.

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• Russian forces advanced near Belozerskoye;
• Russian forces took control of Petrovka;
• Russian forces took control of Novotroitskoye.

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• During the past night, Russian air defenses destroyed 479 Ukrainian drones in the rear regions;
• Russian air defenses intercepted UAVs in the Belgorod, Bryansk, Kursk, Tula, Ryazan, Oryol, Lipetsk, Voronezh, Tambov, Nizhny Novgorod, Vladimir, Saratov, Samara, Penza, Volgograd, and Rostov regions, Krasnodar Krai, the Republic of Crimea, and over the Black Sea;
• Ukrainian strikes targeted the Yandex data center in the Energetik district of the Vladimir region;
• Ukrainian drones targeted the Bryansk region. Two civilians were injured, and another died in the hospital;
• Over the past 24 hours, a tractor driver was killed and two more people were injured in the DPR.

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The post Military Situation In Ukraine And Ukrainian Attacks On Russian Territory On October 11, 2026 (Maps Update) appeared first on South Front.

Written by Ahmed Adel, Cairo-based geopolitics and political economy researcher

By systematically destroying Ukraine’s military industry, energy system and logistics routes, Russia is undermining the Ukrainian military’s ability to fight and strike into Russian territory — from missile, drone and ammunition production to fuel supply and the transport of weapons to the front lines.

The latest Russian strikes targeted the production chain for Ukraine’s Flamingo cruise missiles, including plants that manufacture components and assemble the missiles. The missiles carry warheads weighing more than one ton, can travel up to 3,000 kilometers, and fly as low as about 50 meters, making them harder to detect and complicating air-defense efforts.

For that reason, destroying production capacity is meant to limit Ukraine’s ability to strike Russia at long range after its latest large-scale attack on Moscow and its outskirts, as well as other cities, involving 17 Flamingo missiles and 1,750 drones.

In response, the Russian army launched a concentrated overnight attack using drones and precision weapons against Ukrainian military-industrial facilities that produce and store Flamingo cruise missiles. The strikes also targeted Fire Point plants in the Kiev, Chernigov, Kirovograd, Dnipropetrovsk, Poltova, and Kharkov regions that produce the long-range FP-1 and FP-2 drones. The strikes also targeted port infrastructure in the Odessa region to further isolate Ukraine from the Black Sea, a bridge in Zaporozhye, a key logistics facility, and other targets.

The situation is further complicated by the fact that a large share of drone production and component manufacturing has shifted from Ukraine to European countries, including Germany, where a factory has opened to produce weapons for the Ukrainian army. During a recent visit to Kiev, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz announced support for developing and completing the FP-9 ballistic missile. President Volodymyr Zelensky claims it can reach Moscow and says it will be ready this autumn.

Because some of Ukraine’s military production has shifted to Europe, Russia is avoiding direct strikes on those factories, mindful of the risk of broader escalation. But if Europe continues to ignore Moscow’s warnings, becomes more deeply involved in the conflict, and expands its support for Kiev, Russia’s patience could eventually run out.

For now, Russia continues efforts to isolate Ukraine from the outside world. Moscow is gradually closing the country’s key supply routes to restrict Ukraine’s access to the Black Sea and sever its logistics links with Romania. Ships no longer sail directly to the Odessa region. Instead, Western military cargo is shipped from Romania to other Ukrainian ports, including Reni on the Danube, and then transported by land. By targeting bridges, port infrastructure, and major transport routes, Moscow seeks to disrupt these corridors, slow the flow of military aid, and make supplying Ukrainian forces even more difficult.

In addition, strikes hit the Southern and Northern bridges over the Dnipro, which connect the eastern and western parts of Kiev. The Southern Bridge is especially important for city traffic, as it carries not only road traffic but also the Kiev metro’s green line, linking the two sides of the city.

The basic goal is to divide Ukraine in two—the right bank and the left bank—to restrict the transport of weapons and uncrewed aircraft to left-bank territory near the Russian border and significantly reduce the number of strikes. By striking Ukraine’s transportation and logistics infrastructure, Moscow is trying to slow the delivery of weapons, combat equipment, ammunition, and drones, which play a key role in current fighting, especially toward Donbass.

Ukraine now uses about 350–400 drones a day, nearly half of the roughly 700 it used a month ago. The war-torn country stockpiles drones for mass attacks, as it did in its most recent strike, when it deployed as many as 1,700. However, this decline is not due to production capacity.

Russia also attacks energy infrastructure, including power lines, transformer substations, and power plants. Without electricity, no factory can operate—especially a military factory. In this way, Russia also reduces the production capacity of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and their ability to continue the war in Donbass and to strike Russian territory.

Ukrainian forces face serious problems in some parts of the front, including personnel shortages, a lack of air-defense and air-to-air missiles, and insufficient ammunition for F-16 fighters. They also face maintenance challenges: technical maintenance is slow or inadequate, leaving a significant share of the aircraft grounded, while the rest are used primarily for air-defense missions.

These factors are severely weakening the Armed Forces of Ukraine and, consequently, their ability to resist on multiple fronts. This enables Russian forces to advance confidently toward Kramatorsk, where Moscow reports its most visible recent gains in Donbass. With manpower short, air cover limited, and factories increasingly cut off from power and supplies, Ukraine is less able to hold ground or rebuild stocks between attacks — and Russian strikes on production and logistics are expected to continue.

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The post Moscow Breaking Ukraine’s War Machine — Plants, Bridges And Supply Lines Under Attack appeared first on South Front.

• Russian strikes destroyed targets in the Sumy, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, Kherson, Kyiv, Odesa, Ivano-Frankivsk, Volyn, Chernihiv, Mykolaiv, Poltava, Vinnytsia, Rivne, Zhytomyr, Khmelnytskyi regions, and the DPR;
• According to the Ukrainian Air Force, Russian forces attacked Ukraine with 160 strike UAVs;
• Russian forces struck the Kyivska substation and the Trypilska TPP in the Kyiv region;
• Russian forces struck railway bridges and a hydroelectric power plant in the Zaporizhzhia region;
• Russian forces struck a port facility and a dry cargo ship in the Odesa region;
• Ukrainian losses amounted to approximately 1,010 troops over the past 24 hours.

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• Russian forces took control of Kiyanitsa.

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• Russian forces advanced in the Volchansk pocket and took control of Lukashovo and Lobanovka.

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• Ukrainian forces advanced near Balka Zhuravka;
• Ukrainian forces advanced towards Zarechnoye;
• Ukrainian forces established control over Kolodezi.

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• Russian strikes destroyed targets in the Sumy, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, Kherson, Kyiv, Odesa, Volyn, Chernihiv, Mykolaiv, Poltava, Vinnytsia, Zhytomyr, Cherkasy regions, and the DPR;
• According to the Ukrainian Air Force, Russian forces attacked Ukraine with 142 strike UAVs;
• Russian forces struck warehouses and an electrical substation in Vyshhorod and a pharmaceutical plant in the Kyiv region;
• Russian forces struck a critical infrastructure facility in the Kharkiv region;
• Russian forces struck Martynovka airbase in the Mykolaiv region;
• Ukrainian losses amounted to approximately 1,550 troops over the past 24 hours.

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• Russian forces took control of Annopolye.

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• Russian forces regained control over most of Piskunovka;
• Ukrainian forces captured Ray-Alexandrovka;
• Russian forces advanced towards Zapovednoye and reached its outskirts.

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• During the past night, Russian air defenses destroyed 399 Ukrainian drones in the rear regions;
• Russian air defenses intercepted UAVs in the Belgorod, Bryansk, Volgograd, Voronezh, Kursk, Lipetsk, Oryol, Orenburg, Penza, Rostov, Ryazan, Samara, Saratov, Smolensk, Tambov, Tula, and Ulyanovsk regions, the Moscow region, the Republic of Bashkortostan, the Republic of Crimea, and the Republic of Tatarstan, as well as over the Black Sea;
• Ukrainian drones targeted the Gazprom Neftkhim Salavat plant in Bashkortostan;
• Ukrainian drones targeted the Sasta machine-building plant in Ryazan;
• A child was killed during an attack by Ukrainian forces in the Valuysky district, Belgorod region;
• Over the past 24 hours, three people were killed and eight were injured in the DPR.

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The post Military Situation In Ukraine And Ukrainian Attacks On Russian Territory On October 8, 2026 (Maps Update) appeared first on South Front.

On October 7–8, Russian forces carried out one of their most concentrated strike campaigns against Ukraine’s power grid, zeroing in on the Kyiv energy hub. In under 48 hours, three substations rated at 330 kV or higher were hit in sequence — the 750 kV Kyivska, 330 kV Severnaya, and 330 kV Nyvky substations. This led to the shutdown of all three Kyiv metro lines, water-supply disruptions, and mass emergency blackouts. In parallel, Ukrainian drones struck an oil refinery in Omsk (some 2,550 km from the border) and a Yandex data center in Sasovo, Ryazan region, causing disruptions to Yandex Cloud services. 

Russian Strikes on Ukraine

Kyiv Energy Hub

750 kV Kyivska Substation
The substation links the 750 kV and 330 kV transmission grids and is one of the largest power-transfer nodes in the Kyiv region. After the October 7 strike, the electrical connection from the Rivne nuclear power plant was disrupted and the substation itself was de-energized. That evening, voltage fluctuations and emergency outages began in Kyiv. Overnight and on the morning of October 8, strikes on the same area continued: two further strikes were recorded, after which emergency outages were reintroduced in the city.

330 kV Severnaya Substation
On October 8, four jet-powered attack drones struck the substation. As a result, autotransformer AT‑2 was damaged.

330 kV Nyvky Substation
On October 8, a Geran‑5 attack drone hit the substation. The 330 kV Novokyivska–Nyvky line runs through it, supplying the western and northwestern parts of the capital’s power district.

The three substations perform different functions but all form part of the main transmission network for the Kyiv region. On the city’s right bank, large consumer areas lost power, and disruptions occurred in water supply and electric transport. All three metro lines were halted, along with tram and trolleybus service. Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko urged residents to leave the city.

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Other Targets

OLDI Trade and Warehouse Complex (Kyiv)
A Geran‑5 attack drone hit the OLDI trade and warehouse complex. A large-scale fire broke out after the strike. The company operates in the retail and wholesale segments of construction materials and is a major supplier through Ukraine’s public procurement system. Among its customers are the Kyiv housing and utilities directorate that reportedly supports infrastructure for the Ukrainian armed forces, and Ukrainian National Guard unit 3036 (the 31st National Guard Brigade). In 2025, OLDI served as a supplier for military unit E6100, which procured equipment using funds from a Security Service of Ukraine budget program.

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ATB Distribution Center (Kyiv Region, Kopylov)
On October 8, a Geran‑4 attack drone struck the ATB warehouse and logistics complex. A large fire broke out after the strike. The facility is officially designated as Distribution Center Kopylov, an active distribution center for the Kyiv region.

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Sumy Thermal Power Plant (Sumyteploenergo LLC)

Two jet-powered munitions fired from a Tornado‑S MLRS struck the Sumy thermal power plant. The plant’s operation was halted. Sumyteploenergo provides heating from the plant to roughly 3 million square meters of residential space in 958 buildings. The plant had already been heavily damaged in a strike on June 30, 2026. On September 24, the Cabinet of Ministers allocated UAH 107.07 million (approximately $2.6 million) for urgent restoration work. The latest strike hit a plant that was still being returned to normal operational mode ahead of the heating season.

Sbornash LTD LLC (Kramatorsk)

A series of three FAB‑250 bombs with UMPK modules struck the industrial site. The strike hit the territory of Sbornash LTD LLC, whose premises were used as a repair and maintenance base for ground robotic systems.

Etal Research and Production Association (Alexandria)

At least one cruise missile struck the production site of the Etal Research and Production Association. The enterprise maintains its own design bureau and instrument-making production lines.

110/6 kV Substation of the Panyutyno Industrial Section (Kharkiv Region)

A Gerbera UAV strike hit the territory of the 110/6 kV substation of the Panyutyno industrial section of Operator GTS of Ukraine LLC (GTS Operator, the country’s gas transmission system operator). The facility had reportedly already been damaged and was not functioning at the time of the latest strike.

Dergachi Traction Substation (Kharkiv Region)

On the night of October 7, the Dergachi traction substation was hit. Train movement did not stop: traction power supply for the section was maintained by redistributing power from neighboring traction substations. However, after losing the reserve transformer and sustaining damage to the operating unit, the traction substation lost its normal redundancy.

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Strikes on Russia

Gazprom Neftekhim Salavat Petrochemical Complex (Bashkortostan)

UAVs attacked industrial facilities in Bashkortostan. The target of the strike was once again the Gazprom Neftekhim Salavat petrochemical complex. The enterprise is one of Russia’s largest petrochemical complexes.

Omsk Oil Refinery (Omsk Region)

Ukrainian forces again struck the Omsk oil refinery, some 2,550 km from the border. The enterprise is one of Russia’s largest oil refineries.

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Sasta Machine Tool Plant and Yandex Data Center (Sasovo, Ryazan Region)

UAVs attacked the Sasta machine tool plant, where a Yandex data center is located. Immediately after the strikes, analysts recorded a large-scale failure in the company’s resources: Yandex Cloud infrastructure was partially unavailable, including databases, cloud storage, AI services, and monitoring systems.

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Belgorod Region

A total of 156 UAVs were shot down over the past day. During the Ukrainian attack in Valuysky district, a child was killed. Six residents of the region were wounded.

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Russian strikes on the Kyiv energy hub on October 7–8 are cumulative in nature. Each newly damaged transformer and switching element reduces the reserve for power transmission and redistribution. Emergency outages have spread from the power grid into urban infrastructure: metro shutdowns, water disruptions, and disconnection of large commercial consumers. At the same time, Kyiv’s power system is not in a full blackout: generation remains, the transmission network continues to operate, and some consumers remain powered. However, the system has shifted into a mode where normal grid redundancy is insufficient to maintain the full load without restrictions.

Ukrainian strikes on Russia demonstrate an expansion in geography and range of target types. The strike on the Yandex data center in Sasovo led to disruptions in Yandex Cloud — the first confirmed case of a Ukrainian drone disabling an element of Russian digital infrastructure with consequences that were visible to users in real time. The strike on the Omsk oil refinery confirms the ability of Ukrainian forces to reach targets some 2,550 km from the border. Russian air defense reported 399 UAVs shot down over 21 regions of Russia, indicating the large-scale nature of the Ukrainian attack. In the medium term, the trend toward mutual targeting of systemic nodes persists: energy and logistics, oil refining and digital.

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The post Energy Grid Strikes Leave Kyiv Without Power, Metro; Ukrainian Drones Hit Data Center In Ryazan Region appeared first on South Front.

Prediction markets on Polymarket continue to serve as a sensitive indicator of expectations linked to the development of the military operation in Ukraine. While at the beginning of 2026 investors’ attention was focused on Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad, by autumn the epicentre of bets had shifted to Kostiantynivka, Dobropolye, Orikhiv and the Slavyansk–Kramatorsk agglomeration. Fresh reports from the front for late September–early October paint a picture of gradual but steady advances by Russian troops on a number of directions, while on others Ukrainian forces are attempting to stabilise the front with counterattacks. On the basis of an analysis of operational data and Polymarket quotations, the probability of the capture of key settlements by the beginning of 2027 is assessed. Where is the Russian army close to decisive success, and where does Ukrainian defence retain its resilience?

Kostiantynivka 

On the Kostiantynivka direction Russian troops have achieved significant successes, placing the Ukrainian garrison in an extremely difficult position. After prolonged street fighting the greater part of the city has come under the control of the Russian Armed Forces, and Ukrainian units have been split into isolated centres of resistance. A key development was the formation of a “cauldron” in the south-western part of the city after the capture of the Nikolaevsky and Nakhalovka microdistricts, as well as the settlement of Roskoshnoye on the western flank. Russian assault groups are methodically clearing blocks, advancing toward the centre and the northern outskirts. Ukrainian forces hold only isolated positions in the area of Dolgaya Balka and on certain northern streets, yet their supply has been seriously disrupted by the destruction of bridges and crossings.

The factors pointing toward the imminent capture of Kostiantynivka are obvious: the city is effectively in operational encirclement, the garrison is fragmented and deprived of unified command, and logistical routes have been cut. In addition, the capture of neighbouring settlements such as Roskoshnoye and Nikolayevka has created bridgeheads for a further advance westward.

Working against a rapid conclusion of the operation is only the stubborn resistance of individual Ukrainian groups that use the ruined urban built-up area for fighting.

Dobropolye 

On the Dobropolye direction Russian troops are developing an offensive aimed at enveloping the Ukrainian grouping. Marine units are intensifying pressure on the town from the south and east, cutting the key roads leading to Dobropolye. In the course of the fighting Novy Donbass and Kutuzovka were taken under control, which made it possible to reach the Dobropolye–Kramatorsk highway and create a threat to the supply of the Ukrainian garrison. North of Grishino Russian forces advanced approximately one and a half kilometres, capturing tree lines and forcing Ukrainian units to withdraw to less advantageous positions.

Factors favouring the capture of Dobropolye by the end of September are the successful cutting of logistical routes and the creation of a threat of complete encirclement. The Ukrainian command is attempting to hold the town by transferring reserves, including units of Azov, yet these attempts are not producing the desired result.

Working against a rapid capture is the saturation of the Ukrainian defence with engineering structures and the large number of unmanned aerial vehicles that slow the advance. Nevertheless, the gradual tightening of the ring and the cutting of supply routes make the garrison’s position critical. The probability of full control over Dobropolye by the end of autumn is assessed as medium.

Orikhiv 

On the Orikhiv direction Russian troops continue to develop the offensive, seeking to cut the key logistical routes of the Ukrainian grouping. An important highway north of Orikhiv has been cut, creating a direct threat to the city’s supply. Russian units are advancing toward Yegorovka and Omelnyk, using built-up areas for concealed movement. Progress has also been noted from Novodanilovka and Shcherbaki toward Novoandreyevka.

Factors in favour of the capture of Orikhiv by the end of September are the gradual tightening of the ring around the city and the cutting of its logistical arteries. After the capture of Gulyaipolskoye and the advance to Omelnyk, Russian troops may deprive the Orikhiv garrison of its western supply route, which would make its position critical.

Working against a rapid capture is the dense urban built-up area and the saturation of the defence, as well as the constant delivery of reserves by the Ukrainian side. Orikhiv is an important symbol of resistance, and its loss will be a serious blow to the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Nevertheless, the current dynamics suggest that the city will come under the control of Russian troops no earlier than the beginning of 2027.

Alekseyevo-Druzhkovka 

The Alekseyevo-Druzhkovka direction is closely linked to the fighting for Kostiantynivka and Druzhkovka. Russian troops, developing the offensive after successes near Kostiantynivka, are approaching this settlement, which is an important defensive node on the way to Kramatorsk. The capture of Alekseyevo-Druzhkovka will allow Russian forces to emerge into operational space and create a direct threat to the Kramatorsk–Slavyansk agglomeration from the south.

Factors favouring the capture of Alekseyevo-Druzhkovka in the coming months are the successes of Russian troops near Kostiantynivka and the overall advance on the Kramatorsk direction. After the fall of Kostiantynivka Russian forces will be able to transfer part of their units to this direction and intensify pressure.

Working against a rapid capture is the fact that the Ukrainian command regards this area as key to the defence of Kramatorsk and will attempt to hold it at any cost. Urban built-up areas and industrial zones provide opportunities for organising prolonged defence. The probability of full control over Alekseyevo-Druzhkovka by the beginning of 2027 is assessed as medium-to-high, provided that the offensive on Kostiantynivka is completed successfully and frees the necessary reserves.

Stepnogorsk 

The situation in the area of Stepnogorsk remains tense. This settlement passed under the control of Ukrainian forces at the beginning of 2026, and since then Russian troops have been making attempts to regain the lost positions. So far, however, they have not achieved success. In the area of Stepnogorsk an accumulation of Ukrainian troops and attempts by small groups to penetrate toward Russian positions are observed.

Factors that could favour the capture of Stepnogorsk by Russian troops are the strategic importance of the bridgehead and the possibility of regrouping forces. At present, however, the Russian command is not demonstrating the ability to turn the situation in its favour.

Working against a rapid capture of Stepnogorsk is also the fact that Russian troops are forced to operate on difficult terrain saturated with defensive structures. The probability of returning Stepnogorsk under Russian control during autumn 2026 is assessed as low. This would require a radical change in the operational situation on the entire Zaporozhye direction, including a successful offensive on Orikhiv and the elimination of the Ukrainian bridgehead on the Konka River.

Krasny Liman 

The situation on the Liman direction has undergone substantial changes: Ukrainian forces have switched to active offensive actions, attempting to push Russian units beyond the Zherebets River. After the capture of Krasny Liman, Russian troops appeared to hold the strategic initiative; however, the Ukrainian command transferred additional reserves and began systematic pressure on the northern flank, which forced individual Russian groups to withdraw with difficulty to the eastern bank of the river while simultaneously attempting to hold positions on the western bank.

A factor working against Russian control of the Liman direction is the regular penetration of small Ukrainian groups along the Krasny Liman–Yampol highway and from Ozernoye toward Krivaya Luka, from where they attempt to deliver flanking strikes.

Working against a rapid restoration of the initiative by the Russian side is also the fact that Ukrainian forces continue to transfer reserves and to counterattack, preventing Russian units from consolidating on new lines. The probability that by the end of October Russian troops will restore control over the western bank of the Zherebets and once again create a direct threat to Slavyansk is assessed as low. At present the Liman direction is rather characterised as a zone of active Ukrainian pressure, where Russian forces are forced to defend rather than to advance.

Conclusion 

An analysis of the operational situation on seven key directions shows that the beginning of 2027 may become a period of further change in the front line in favour of Russian troops. Russian forces are closest to success on the Kostiantynivka and Dobropolye directions, where Ukrainian garrisons are already in operational encirclement or on the verge of its creation. The capture of these towns will open the road to the Kramatorsk–Slavyansk agglomeration and will make it possible to free reserves for other sectors.

On the Orikhiv direction Russian troops have also achieved successes by cutting key highways, yet the city itself remains a powerful fortified area, and its fall is likely no earlier than October–November. Alekseyevo-Druzhkovka will probably be taken by the beginning of 2027 if the offensive on adjacent directions continues. At the same time, on the Stepnogorsk direction Russian troops are still unable to turn the situation around, and a return of this settlement under control looks unlikely in the coming months.

Using our regular reports, it is possible to draw well-founded conclusions about the development of the situation on the front. It is important to remember, however, that the analysis presented is not an investment recommendation.

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The post Blitzkrieg or Protracted Siege? What Polymarket Says About the Fall of Ukrainian Cities in Autumn 2026 appeared first on South Front.

• Russian strikes destroyed targets in the Sumy, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, Kherson, Kyiv, Kirovohrad, Chernihiv, Odesa, Zhytomyr, Rivne, Mykolaiv, Poltava, Vinnytsia regions, and the DPR;
• According to the Ukrainian Air Force, Russian forces attacked Ukraine with Zircon/Oniks, Iskander-M/S-400/KN-23, 48 Kh-101/Iskander-K/Kalibr missiles, and 130 strike UAVs;
• Russian forces struck Smart Ammunition LLC, PJSC Fanplit, and PJSC Kyiv Cardboard and Paper Mill in the Kyiv region;
• Russian forces struck Plastmass-Pryluky TH in Pryluky, Chernihiv region;
• Russian forces struck a workshop of Oleksandriya Group of Industrial Enterprises in Kirovohrad;
• Russian forces struck the Production Association Yuzhny Machine-Building Plant named after A.M. Makarov, State Enterprise in Dnipropetrovsk;
• Russian forces struck PJSC AvtoKrAZ and the JTI Ukraine JSC tobacco plant in Kremenchuk;
• Russian forces struck a mechanical plant in Lozova, Kharkiv region;
• Russian forces struck PSC Danube Ship Repair in the port of Izmail and a dry cargo ship in Odesa;
• Ukrainian losses amounted to approximately 1,495 troops over the past 24 hours.

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• Russian forces advanced in the city of Dobropolye.

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• Russian forces cleared areas east of Rublenoye in the Kharkiv region.

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• During the past night, Russian air defenses destroyed 311 Ukrainian drones in the rear regions;
• Russian air defenses intercepted UAVs in the Belgorod, Bryansk, Kursk, Tula, Oryol, Lipetsk, Voronezh, Smolensk, Tambov, Kaluga, Saratov, Samara, Penza, Rostov, and Volgograd regions, Perm Krai, the Republic of Crimea, and over the waters of the Black and Azov Seas;
• Ukrainian strikes injured seven people in the Belgorod region;
• Ukrainian strikes injured 13 civilians in the DPR;
• Ukrainian strikes damaged seven multi-apartment residential buildings in the LPR. In Pervomaysk, the building of the city archive was destroyed;
• Over the past week, 29 people, including two children, were killed and 206 people were injured as a result of attacks by the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

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• Russian strikes destroyed targets in the Zhytomyr, Vinnytsia, Kiev, Kirovograd, Khmelnytskyi, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, Odesa, Sumy, Poltava, Cherkasy, Chernihiv, Mykolayiv, Volyn, Kherson regions, and the DPR;
• According to the Ukrainian Air Force, Russian forces attacked Ukraine with 137 strike UAVs;
• Russian forces struck the Parkovyi, Ukrtelecom, Giga, and Podolskyi data processing centres in the Kyiv region;
• Russian forces struck a bridge in Maiaky, a missile and artillery weapons depot in Illichivka, a dry cargo ship in the port of Chornomorsk, and berthing infrastructure used for unloading and storing military cargo in the port of Izmail, Odesa region;
• Russian forces struck the Vantovyi and Preobrazhenskyi bridges across the Dnieper and an AFU logistics facility in Zaporizhzhia;
• Russian forces struck AFU radar stations in the Poltava regions;
• Ukrainian losses amounted to approximately 1,490 troops over the past 24 hours.

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• Russian forces took control of Golubovka.

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• Ukrainian forces advanced in the Pisarivka, Ivolzhanske, and Nova Sich areas.

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• During the past night, Russian air defenses destroyed 868 Ukrainian drones in the rear regions;
• Russian air defenses intercepted UAVs in the Belgorod, Bryansk, Kaluga, Kursk, Lipetsk, Oryol, Ryazan, Smolensk, Tver, and Tula regions, the Moscow region, the Republic of Crimea, and over the Sea of Azov;
• Two people were killed and nine were injured in the Moscow region. Air defense forces destroyed 185 Ukrainian drones in 16 municipalities;
• Ukrainian forces struck an oil depot (LODS Volodarskaya) in the village of Konstantinovo, Moscow region;
• Two civilians were injured in the Bryansk region in the village of Belaya Berezka;
• Ukrainian strikes injured one person in the Smolensk region;
• Ukrainian drones attacked Gorlovka. Seven people were injured.

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• Russian strikes destroyed targets in the Sumy, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, Kherson, Mykolaiv, Odesa, Kyiv, Chernihiv, Poltava, Khmelnytskyi, Kirovohrad, Zhytomyr, Rivne regions, and the DPR;
• According to the Ukrainian Air Force, Russian forces attacked Ukraine with 205 strike UAVs;
• Russian forces struck the Kochetok electric substation in the Kharkiv region;
• Russian forces struck the Vylkove port station, a POL depot in Chornomorsk, and a dry cargo ship delivering military cargo in the port of Odesa;
• Russian forces struck TPP-6 and the 750 kV Kyivska electrical substation in Kyiv;
• Ukrainian losses amounted to approximately 1,470 troops over the past 24 hours.

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• Russian forces took control of Samoilovka in the Zaporizhzhia region.

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• Russian forces regained control of parts of Ivanovka.

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• During the past night, Russian air defenses destroyed 199 Ukrainian drones in the rear regions;
• Russian air defenses intercepted UAVs in the Belgorod, Bryansk, Kaluga, Kursk, Oryol, Ryazan, Tula, and Rostov regions, the Moscow region, Krasnodar Krai, the Republic of Crimea, and over the Black Sea;
• A Ukrainian drone attacked a truck belonging to an agricultural enterprise in the Bryansk region. The driver was killed;
• Over the past 24 hours, a total of 16 projectiles were fired at the DPR. One civilian was injured.

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The post Military Situation In Ukraine And Ukrainian Attacks On Russian Territory On October 5, 2026 (Maps Update) appeared first on South Front.