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Russian Forces Concentrate Record Drone Strikes on Kirovohrad Region, Expand Attacks on Industry, Rail, and Airfields

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On the night of October 15, 2026, the Russian Armed Forces carried out a combined strike on Ukraine using two Kh-59 guided missiles and 580 attack drones and decoy drones. The main effort was concentrated on Kirovohrad Region, where strikes continued for more than ten hours and hit industrial facilities, logistics complexes, and railway infrastructure. Strikes were also carried out against port infrastructure in Odesa Region, traction substations, and aviation infrastructure in western Ukraine. In response, Ukraine attempted a massive attack on the Ryazan oil refinery, which was repelled by air defense forces.

Russian Strikes on Ukraine
Kirovohrad Region
Logistics and warehouse facilities (Kropyvnytskyi). Kirovohrad Region came under the most massive attack since the start of the conflict: according to Andriy Raikovych, head of the Region Military Administration, nearly 360 drones attacked the region, with impacts recorded at 25 locations. In Kropyvnytskyi, strikes hit company premises, logistics centers, and warehouses. Among the affected facilities were Focus-Logistics, a warehouse complex operated by a company with critical-infrastructure status; warehouse buildings of SE Kombinat Trykutnyk, part of Ukraine’s state material reserve system; a cargo branch of Nova Poshta; and a distribution center of Veresen Plus LLC, operator of the Faino Market chain.

Industrial facilities (Kropyvnytskyi). Three drone strikes hit the premises of Gradoil LLC, a full-cycle oil-extraction complex that processes sunflower and rapeseed; fire engulfed administrative and warehouse buildings covering more than 1,000 square meters. Three drones struck Penoplast Center LLC, a production and warehouse facility in the polymer sector, with the fire spreading across roughly 800 square meters. A separate strike hit the former industrial complex of PrJSC Kreativ, historically one of the city’s largest oil-and-fat enterprises, whose production facilities continue to be used by other operators after the legal entity’s bankruptcy. A production workshop of Intermash Prom LLC in Oleksandriia was also hit, with fire engulfing more than 300 square meters. The company was registered in August 2026, and its initial business profile included the production of weapons and ammunition.

Railway infrastructure. Four attack drones successively hit the railway complex in Pomichna. According to available information, the strike hit the locomotive complex, but the fire was recorded in a building belonging to the railcar repair facility responsible for repairing freight rolling stock. In addition, the Sharivka and Suhokliia traction substations were hit, and electric train service was halted.


Odesa Region
Port of Izmail and maritime vessels. Port infrastructure at the Port of Izmail was damaged; it was used for unloading and storing military and dual-use cargo. In addition, two bulk carriers were hit while underway at sea.

Traction substations. In Rozdilna Raion, a drone struck the EChE-24 traction substation, causing an oil fire covering about 350 square meters. In Izmail Raion, an attack drone exploded near the Prymorske substation.

Ternopil Region
Chortkiv — SE Bordnetze cable production. Russian drones hit the Chortkiv branch of SE Bordnetze-Ukraine LLC (SEBN), part of the international Sumitomo Electric Bordnetze network. A warehouse building was damaged, and fire engulfed more than 500 square meters. The facility produces electrical wiring systems and wiring harnesses for the automotive industry, including for the Volkswagen Golf 8, Audi A6, Audi e-tron, and Porsche J1. According to reports, the company’s cable-production capabilities were also used to manufacture components for Ukrainian long-range unmanned systems.

Vinnytsia Region
Vinnytsia — GreenCool plant. GreenCool is one of Ukraine’s largest refrigeration-equipment manufacturers and part of the UBC Group, with revenue exceeding UAH 2 billion. Open procurement data show four government tenders involving Green Cool LLC, with Ukrnafta as the main customer. The Zhmerynka locomotive depot and the area around the Kozyatyn-2 110 kV supporting traction substation were also attacked.

Zhytomyr Region
Chudniv-Volynskyi traction substation.
Vilshanka traction substation.

Khmelnytskyi Region
Starokostiantyniv — radar station. Two Geran-5 jet-powered drones hit a P-37 radar position at Starokostiantyniv airfield. The radar itself was destroyed. The P-37 is an air-surveillance asset that provides commanders with a picture of the air situation in their area of responsibility. Radar coverage is designed with overlapping zones, so the airfield does not become completely “blind,” but the destruction of an operational air-surveillance asset is a concrete loss for an airfield that has regularly come under attack.

Volyn Region
Lutsk — airfield. The strike hit the Lutsk airfield, where the 204th Tactical Aviation Brigade is stationed. One of the impacts occurred near the guardhouse.

Ivano-Frankivsk Region
Kolomyia — airfield. Two Geran-5 jet-powered drones attacked Kolomyia military airfield. The main radar equipment and flight infrastructure were not damaged. According to available information, the airfield is still used to receive transport aircraft and move military cargo. The two impacts did not disrupt this function, but the fact that strike assets returned to Kolomyia after a long pause indicates that the airfield has once again become a target of attention.

Dnipropetrovsk Region
Dnipro — repeated strike on DAO. This was not the first strike on the site: earlier attacks had already hit the same complex, causing a major fire and damage to its production and logistics building. Repeated strikes are the key factor here: each new attack compounds the existing damage.

Kyiv Region
Borodianka — ARTISAN construction-mix production. The strike targeted the production site of Artel LLC, better known under the ARTISAN trademark, which produces dry and liquid construction mixes. A review of procurement records shows that ARTISAN products are systematically present in supply chains for Ukrainian security forces: construction materials appear in purchases by several Armed Forces of Ukraine units as well as National Guard units; in 2026, its products were included in purchases classified as defense-related.

Poltava Region
Naftogaz facility. On the night of October 15, Russian forces attacked gas-production infrastructure belonging to Naftogaz Group in Poltava Region. The drone strike damaged process equipment, started a fire at the facility, and suspended operations.

Strikes on Russia
Ryazan Region
During the night of October 15, Ukrainian forces attempted a massive attack on the oil refinery in Ryazan. According to the Russian Ministry of Defense, Russian air defenses intercepted and destroyed four Flamingo long-range cruise missiles and 69 fixed-wing drones. A fire broke out at the refinery after drone debris fell on its grounds. In total, according to the Russian Ministry of Defense, 166 Ukrainian drones were shot down over 14 Russian regions on the night of October 15.

Russian President Vladimir Putin, commenting on the strikes on Russian refineries, said: “Yesterday they tried to strike some refineries, and they hit a few places. Nothing significant, but they continue nonetheless.” Putin emphasized that Russia will respond to strikes on refineries, logistics, and energy facilities: “They made the first move. We began responding. They should not have started.”

The Russian strikes on Ukraine on October 15 were marked by an exceptionally high concentration of forces in the Kirovohrad direction: nearly 360 drones targeted a single region, making this the largest attack on the region. The main effort was directed at the industrial and logistics network of Kropyvnytskyi, as well as railway power infrastructure in Kirovohrad, Vinnytsia, and Zhytomyr Regions. Damage to the Sharivka, Suhokliia, and Chudniv-Volynskyi traction substations caused localized halts in electric traction and creates risks for rail service on the affected sections. At the same time, strikes on the Starokostiantyniv, Lutsk, and Kolomyia airfields continue the attrition of aviation infrastructure in western Ukraine.

In the medium term, the combination of strikes on energy infrastructure and industrial facilities creates a cumulative effect that complicates the restoration of production chains. Repeated strikes on facilities that had already been damaged point to the systematic nature of the campaign, aimed not only at inflicting immediate damage but also at preventing recovery. Against the backdrop of statements by the Russian leadership about its readiness to respond to strikes on Russian infrastructure, a high tempo of mutual strikes should be expected to continue in the coming weeks.

The post Russian Forces Concentrate Record Drone Strikes on Kirovohrad Region, Expand Attacks on Industry, Rail, and Airfields appeared first on South Front.

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Military Situation In Ukraine And Ukrainian Attacks On Russian Territory On October 15, 2026 (Maps Update)

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  • Russian strikes destroyed targets in the Sumy, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, Kherson, Odesa, Kirovohrad, Kyiv, Volyn, Chernihiv, Khmelnytskyi, Lviv, Mykolaiv, Vinnytsia, Rivne, Cherkasy, Poltava, Ivano-Frankivsk, Zhytomyr regions, and the DPR;
  • According to the Ukrainian Air Force, Russian forces attacked Ukraine with 2 Kh-59 guided air-launched missiles and 580 strike UAVs;
  • Russian forces struck the Focus Logistik, Treuholnyk, Nova Poshta, Veresen Plus, Hradoil, Penoplast Center, Kreativ, and Intermash Prom facilities, the Pomichna depot, and the Sukhoklia, Fundukliivka, and Sharivka substations in Kirovohrad region;
  • Russian forces struck warehouses, industrial enterprises, and railway infrastructure in Kropyvnytskyi;
  • Russian forces struck the Izmail port, two dry cargo ships near Odesa, ships in the Bug Estuary and Chornomorsk port, and the EChE-24 and Prymorske substations in the Odesa region;
  • Russian forces struck a P-37 radar at Starokostiantyniv airfield in the Khmelnytskyi region;
  • Russian forces struck Lutsk airfield in the Volyn region;
  • Russian forces struck Kolomyia airfield in the Ivano-Frankivsk region;
  • Russian forces struck the SE Bordnetze-Ukraine plant in Chortkiv, Ternopil region;
  • Russian forces struck the GreenCool plant and the Kozyatyn-2 substation in the Vinnytsia region;
  • Russian forces struck the Chudniv-Volynskyi substation in the Zhytomyr region;
  • Russian forces struck the ARTISAN plant in Borodianka, Kyiv region;
  • Russian forces struck the DAO complex in Dnipropetrovsk;
  • Russian forces struck the 79K6 Pelican radar on Zmiinyi Island in the Odesa region;
  • Ukrainian losses amounted to approximately 1,120 troops over the past 24 hours.

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  • Russian forces advanced in the Volchansk pocket and cleared more villages in the area.

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  • Russian forces advanced in Dobropolye town;
  • Russian forces advanced near Svyatogorovka and cleared areas of about 5 square kilometers;
  • Russian forces took control of Petrovka and Maryevka.

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  • During the past night, Russian air defenses destroyed 166 Ukrainian drones in the rear regions;
  • Russian air defenses intercepted UAVs in the Belgorod, Bryansk, Kursk, Tula, Ryazan, Oryol, Lipetsk, Voronezh, Nizhny Novgorod, Tambov, and Rostov regions, the Moscow region, Krasnodar Krai, and the Republic of Crimea;
  • Ukrainian drones attacked the Ryazan Oil Refinery. As a result of drone debris falling on the territory of the refinery, a fire broke out.

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Poles Protest Mass Ukrainian Migration

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Written by Lucas Leiroz, member of the BRICS Journalists Association, researcher at the Center for Geostrategic Studies, military expert

Polish tolerance for Ukrainian immigration is steadily waning. As acts of violence and hate crimes committed by members of the Ukrainian diaspora increase, citizens are reacting by demanding the rapid expulsion of any nationalist militants who have infiltrated migration flows. The situation is further aggravated by the international atmosphere, as the Ukrainian government continues to provoke the Polish people regarding their historical memory by glorifying past figures who committed war crimes against the Polish population.

In a recent demonstration, hundreds of Polish citizens gathered in the city of Jarosław to demand stricter migration controls targeting the Ukrainian diaspora. Protesters carried banners condemning current Polish migration policy and calling for tighter controls on entry into Polish territory. Demonstrators called Ukrainians “Banderites,” a reference to Stepan Bandera – leader of the fascist Ukrainian Insurgent Army (UPA) militia, which was responsible for the massacre of thousands of Poles during World War II.

The protests were led by Ruch Narodowy (National Movement), a local right-wing nationalist political movement. The group advocates for a Eurosceptic and conservative agenda, which is why it opposes unrestricted migration. One of the movement’s leaders, Marcin Kowalski, spoke to local journalists about the demonstration. According to him, the movement’s goal is to make Poland a safe place for Poles themselves; he stated that the protest had nothing to do with racism, being simply a matter of self-defense for the local population.

“We want a safe Poland, and this is not racism. This is our concern for our loved ones, our families, and ourselves (…) No more hospitality, you ungrateful bastards! (…) Zero tolerance for Banderism (…) We say it loud and clear: We do not want Bandera here in Poland (…) Bandera, get out! Go beyond the Don,” the protesters’ leader said.

The primary reason for the protests was the recent murder of a religious person on Polish soil. Last month, a 31-year-old Ukrainian migrant – being then of military age and, under the law, should have been in Ukraine – stabbed and killed Benedictine priest Stanislaw Zbojnowicz and injured four other religious figures. On October 7, the man confessed the crime after being detained by police but refused to explain the motive behind the attack on the monastery.

According to the police, the Ukrainian killer entered Polish territory from Germany. Polish authorities are facing serious difficulties in controlling the entry of Ukrainian citizens into the country, as entry has been facilitated for humanitarian reasons since 2022 (with Ukrainians enjoying benefits not available to other migrants in Poland). Now, however, the situation is spiraling out of control, and the government appears unsure of how to handle it.

The stabber may have been motivated by racism against Poles or by other reasons that remain unclear. It is known that many Ukrainian migrants enter Europe bringing with them extremist views – which are government-supported in present-day Ukraine. Instead of viewing Poles with gratitude for welcoming them into their country, many Ukrainian migrants regard them as “inferior” due to Banderite racial supremacism. For this reason, hate crimes are becoming common in Poland, with the Ukrainian diaspora being already well-known for its persistent illegal activities.

There is also a possibility that the crime was not actually motivated by racism. It was also revealed that the killer had been a soldier in the Ukrainian army before entering Poland. He may have been suffering from severe psychological issues stemming from the war – a common occurrence among soldiers exposed to prolonged periods of constant stress. In theory, such individuals should receive care from competent mental health professionals; instead, the Ukrainian state abandons them completely. Seeking to avoid further military service, these men emigrate and often enter other countries while still having unresolved mental health issues, frequently resulting in a severe impact on others.

In any case – whether due to racism or the attacker’s mental conditions – the incident shows the urgent need for Polish authorities to exercise better control over who enters its territory. Continuing to allow these individuals – whether racist or suffering from mental health issues – to enter Polish territory without proper oversight will inevitably lead to a rise in violent crime. Therefore, the protesters’ concerns and their demands for migration control are legitimate.

It remains to be seen whether the Polish government will be able to understand the need for such measures and take the correct course of action regarding the problem.

You can follow Lucas on X (formerly Twitter) and Telegram.


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Russian Strikes Hit Ukraine’s Energy Grid Again, Over 1,400 Drones Downed Over Russia

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On October 14, the Russian Armed Forces launched a large-scale combined strike on Ukraine’s energy and communications infrastructure. The main targets were located in Kyiv, Kyiv region, and Kharkiv region. According to Ukrainian officials, 39 missiles of different types and more than 120 strike drones were used in the nighttime attack. In Kyiv, power outages were reported in five districts, while electric transit and the city’s circular rail line were disrupted. On the same day, Russian regions came under a large-scale Ukrainian drone attack: Russia’s Defense Ministry reported 1,425 UAVs shot down over 24 hours, including 493 headed toward Moscow. Two oil refineries in Saratov and Ryazan regions were attacked.

Russian Strikes on Ukraine

Energy Infrastructure

Darnytska TPP (Kyiv) — struck twice, on the evening of October 13 and the morning of October 14. Power transformers and control cables were damaged.

TPP-5 (Kyiv) — the strike hit the plant’s electrical systems. Power unit No. 3 was damaged, and the oil pumping station caught fire.

TPP-6 (Kyiv) — a direct hit damaged part of the power unit building, causing floors to collapse. A transformer was damaged, oil systems lost pressure, and the fire spread to cables.

Trypilska TPP (Kyiv region) — four ballistic missiles hit the switchyard, the coal-handling gallery, and the turbine hall. Two generating units were damaged.

Kyivska Substation — two missiles hit the 750-kV switchyard. The main transformers survived, but transit lines were disconnected and relay protection was disrupted.

Kharkivska TPP-5 (Podvirky) — the strike damaged equipment at two power units; the fire covered about 800 square meters.

Zmiivska TPP (Slobozhanske, Kharkiv region) — strikes hit the turbine halls of power units No. 1 and No. 2 directly.


Railway and Logistics Infrastructure

Epitsentr logistics center (Khmelnytskyi) — according to Russia’s Defense Ministry, it was used to store and distribute cargo for the AFU. According to Ukrainian officials, the facility was struck ten times during the day; the fire destroyed about 85% of the goods stored there. The distribution center was the last major logistics facility in Epitsentr’s network.

Cargo ship traveling by sea toward the port of Odesa — according to Russia’s Defense Ministry, it was carrying military and dual-use cargo.

Znamianka Locomotive Depot (Kirovohrad region) — a key facility in the railway junction’s locomotive operations. The fire covered about 50 square meters.

Osnova Locomotive Depot (Kharkiv)

Zhmerynka Locomotive Depot (Vinnytsia region) — an attack drone struck the depot; the total fire area was about 6,000 square meters.

Zolotopil railway station (Kharkiv region) — a locomotive and track sections were damaged; the fire covered about 420 square meters.

Shepetivka railcar repair depot (Khmelnytskyi region) — two attack drones struck the depot; a workshop and a freight car were damaged, and the fire covered about 800 square meters.

Ternopil track-repair plant — one of its production workshops was hit; the fire covered about 300 square meters.

Other Infrastructure

ATM Ukrsibbank data center (Kyiv) — according to Russia’s Defense Ministry, it was used to exchange internet traffic, including for intelligence-gathering purposes.

Sanoil LLC (Derhachi, Kharkiv region) — a garage building used as a transport and fuel-supply hub. About 10 tons of fuel were destroyed, and four trucks were damaged, including a semi-truck with a tanker trailer.

Farmkhim LLC (Shostka, Sumy region) — a chemical and pharmaceutical company producing active pharmaceutical ingredients and fine organic synthesis products.

Grandterminal oil depot (Lutsk, Volyn region). Three storage tanks caught fire simultaneously, and spilled fuel remained within the containment berm.

Strikes on Russia

Russia’s Defense Ministry reported 1,425 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over 24 hours; 902 were shot down overnight over 20 Russian regions. Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin said 493 UAVs were headed toward the capital region: most were intercepted at long range, and another 180 were shot down as they approached Moscow.

Facilities Attacked

Sberbank data center (Balakovo, Saratov region)

MZ Balakovo metallurgical plant (Balakovo, Saratov region) — the plant produces steel and rolled metal, turns out more than 1 million tons of steel products a year, and has its own steelmaking operations.

NZNP oil-loading terminal (Rostov-on-Don). Ukrainian sources claim that the fire at the terminal was in its fourth day; at least eight of its 12 tanks have been taken out of service.


Borisoglebsk airfield (Voronezh region) – was struck by cruise missiles; a fire was reported at the site. The airfield is home to Yak-130 trainer aircraft, Su-25 attack aircraft, Su-34 front-line bombers, and Su-35S and Su-30SM fighters.


Oil refineries (Saratov and Ryazan regions). Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said Ukrainian forces attacked two Russian oil refineries.

Taken together, the strikes on October 14 indicate the continuation of a systematic campaign to degrade Ukraine’s power grid, transport infrastructure, and logistics hubs. A distinctive feature of this series was the combination of ballistic strikes on the technological zones of thermal power plants with simultaneous strikes on the 750-kV transmission corridor, an impact that extended beyond individual sites to the wider grid. Railway infrastructure has faced successive strikes on different elements of a single system — locomotive depots, repair workshops, locomotives and rolling stock, overhead contact lines, and fuel facilities. Each individual episode does not paralyze the network on its own; however, the accumulation of damage reduces the network’s redundancy and repair capacity.

On the Russian side, the large-scale drone attack demonstrates Ukraine’s ability to field a significant number of strike drones, placing sustained demands on Russian air defenses. The attack on the Borisoglebsk airfield highlights the continued vulnerability of military facilities even when equipment is moved in advance. In the medium term, both sides are likely to continue striking infrastructure targets, while Russia’s main focus will likely remain on Ukraine’s energy sector and railway logistics.

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Russia Strikes Ukraine’s Rail Network and Drone Warehouses

Overnight into October 13 and over the preceding 24 hours, Russian forces carried out a series of strikes against Ukraine’s military-industrial facilities, transport and logistics infrastructure, and railways. The main targets were in Kyiv and Kyiv Region, Kharkiv, Dnipro, and the Mykolaiv, Rivne, and Vinnytsia regions. Ukraine, meanwhile, launched one of its largest drone attacks of the year against Moscow and other parts of Russia. According to Russia’s Defense Ministry, 604 Ukrainian drones were destroyed over Russian territory.

Russian Strikes on Ukraine

Kyiv Region

Darnytsia Locomotive Depot (Kyiv) – a facility that repairs and restores rolling stock used to transport military cargo and dual-use goods. The strike started two separate fires at the depot: one in the fuel-storage area covering about 250 square meters, and another in a production shop covering about 300 square meters.

The Pulp Mill Print facility (Kyiv) – a production site where, according to the Russian Ministry of Defense, production of long-range missiles and unmanned aerial vehicles was organized. After the strike, the fire covered roughly 8,000 square meters. Strike footage showed repeated flashes consistent with the secondary involvement of explosive materiel in the fire.

Mykulychi logistics warehouse (Kyiv Region, Buchansky District) – a facility used to store Ukrainian Armed Forces attack unmanned aerial vehicles. The strike was carried out using a Geran-5 jet-powered UAV. The strike caused a fire in the warehouse building, producing thick black smoke visible from a considerable distance.


Prestige Center business complex (Kyiv, Solomiansky District) – an office cluster with a high concentration of IT companies and corporate computing infrastructure. Its tenants include Miratech, ZEO Alliance, AMIND, and B. Braun Medical Ukraine. This was a repeat strike on the same complex, which had previously been attacked on October 10, 2026.


Mykolaiv Region

Nova Poshta logistics center (Ternivka) – a facility used, according to the Russian Ministry of Defense, to store dual-use cargo intended to supply the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

Unmanned aerial vehicle warehouse (Meshkovo-Pohorilove) 

Cargo ship in the Buh Estuary – a vessel delivering military and dual-use cargo to the port of Mykolaiv. Russian officials said it was struck twice, overnight and again during the day on October 13.


Kharkiv Region

Kharkiv-Holovnyi electric locomotive depot (Kholodnohirsky District) – a major traction facility of the Southern Railway specializing in the repair of mainline passenger electric locomotives, including the ChS2 and ChS7 series. Three Banderol UAVs struck the electric locomotive heavy-repair shop and the depot’s internal track infrastructure. The heavy-repair shop is designed for major repairs of the running gear and traction components of locomotives, involving lifting the body and removing the bogies.


Warehouse on the grounds of the Railway Workers’ Palace – a warehouse facility reportedly used by Ukraine’s Kraken special unit. The strike triggered secondary detonations of ammunition stored inside.

Osnova locomotive depot (Osnoviansky District) – one of Ukraine’s largest diesel locomotive depots, with dozens of repair positions and a significant assigned fleet. On October 13, the facility was struck twice.


Dnipropetrovsk Region

Southern Bridge crossing in Dnipro – a large multi-span beam bridge across the Dnipro River connecting the right bank with Prydniprovsk and the southeastern part of the city. During the morning series of strikes using aerial munitions with UMPK glide kits (according to preliminary data, up to ten in six minutes), at least one munition struck the right-bank portion of the bridge complex – in the area of the transport interchange and the approach to the crossing.


Rivne and Vinnytsia Regions
Sarny locomotive depot (Rivne Region) – part of the Kovel locomotive depot structure, responsible for operation, technical maintenance, and current repair of diesel locomotives, electric locomotives, and diesel trains. Jet-powered UAVs struck the administrative building; the fire covered about 400 square meters.

Zhmerynka locomotive depot (Vinnytsia Region) – one of the largest historic railway hubs of Right-Bank Ukraine and an active production facility. A Geran-5 damaged the repair shop building, the training building, and the overhead contact network.

Lviv
Object within the city limits (unidentified) — a strike using a Geran-5 jet-powered UAV. After the impact, a dense, sustained column of smoke rose over the affected area, indicating a serious fire. Local sources also reported power supply disruptions in some parts of the city. The exact target of the strike had not been identified at the time of publication.


Strikes on Russia

Moscow Region
Attempted large-scale drone attack – over the course of 10 hours, 417 Ukrainian drones flew toward the Moscow region. Most were neutralized by air defense forces at distant approaches. 65 drones were destroyed on the approach to Moscow. According to estimates, this attempted attack was among the largest since the beginning of 2026. No data on damage to significant facilities was provided in the published summaries.

Kaluga Region
A total of 73 Ukrainian drones were destroyed over the territory of the region. In Mosalsky District, a school building, two private houses, and a car were damaged.

Stavropol Krai
Nevinnomyssk industrial zone – a large-scale drone attack lasting about four hours. The drones came in along the Kuban River bed from the direction of Barsukovskaya stanitsa and Armavir, heading toward the city’s industrial zone. 

Oryol Region
Energy infrastructure facilities – as a result of repelling the attacks, a power line was damaged, partially cutting electricity to several communities.

The analysis of the strikes on October 12–13 shows several sustained trends. Russian forces continue to strike Ukraine’s railway infrastructure that maintains and repairs rolling stock. Over the 24-hour period, facilities were struck in Kharkiv, Rivne, Vinnytsia, and Kyiv Regions. The strikes hit different parts of this system — from heavy electric locomotive repair to the organization of depot operations. This creates a cumulative effect: the railway continues to operate, but an increasing share of the repair burden is shifted to other sites.

Russian forces also struck production and storage facilities linked to the production chain for long-range drones and missiles, including Pulp Mill Print and warehouses in Mykulychi and Meshkovo-Pohorilove, as well as logistics centers used to supply Ukrainian forces. Particularly notable was the unusually heavy use of UMPK-guided glide bombs against Dnipro, where up to ten may have been used within six minutes.

Ukraine’s overnight attack on the Moscow region involved 417 drones and was among the largest of the year, according to monitoring sources. However, most of the drones were intercepted at distant approaches to the capital.


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Military Situation In Ukraine And Ukrainian Attacks On Russian Territory On October 13, 2026 (Maps Update)

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  • Russian strikes destroyed targets in the Sumy, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, Kherson, Kyiv, Odesa, Rivne, Chernihiv, Khmelnytskyi, Lviv, Mykolaiv, Cherkasy, Zhytomyr regions, and the DPR;
  • According to the Ukrainian Air Force, Russian forces attacked Ukraine with 108 strike UAVs;
  • Russian forces struck the Palp Mill Print production workshop, the Darnitsa locomotive shed, a railway car repair plant, Ukroplastik, and TPP-5 in Kyiv;
  • Russian forces struck the Nova Poshta logistics centre, a UAV depot, and a dry cargo ship in the Mykolaiv region;
  • Russian forces struck the territory of the Kharkiv-Holovny locomotive depot and Liubotyn railway station in Kharkiv;
  • Ukrainian losses amounted to approximately 1,365 troops over the past 24 hours.

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  • Russian forces took control of Klinovoye.

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  • Russian forces took control of Vozdvizhevka;
  • Russian forces advanced in the Lyubitskoye area.

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  • During the past night, Russian air defenses destroyed 604 Ukrainian drones in the rear regions;
  • Russian air defenses intercepted UAVs in the Bryansk, Belgorod, Oryol, Kaluga, Tula, Kursk, Voronezh, Tver, Lipetsk, Ryazan, Rostov, and Smolensk regions, the Moscow region, Stavropol Krai, Krasnodar Krai, and over the Sea of Azov;
  • Ukrainian strikes damaged a school building, two private houses, and a car in the Mosalsky district, Kaluga region;
  • A Ukrainian drone attacked an ambulance in the Belovsky district of the Kursk region, wounding a paramedic;
  • Ukrainian forces struck a civilian vehicle in Nova Kakhovka, Kherson region, wounding a woman and her child.

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Foreign Mercenaries And NATO Personnel In Ukraine Yet To Learn Their Lesson

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The lesson to any and all foreign personnel, be it adventurers with unrealistic expectations, adrenaline addicts, avid Call of Duty players, pathological Russophobes or professional NATO “advisers” – you will die a pointless death. Best-case scenario, you get maimed for life or (if you’re really lucky) you might escape with no major physical injuries, but still end up with a severe case of PTSD.

Written by Drago Bosnic, independent geopolitical and military analyst

According to the mainstream propaganda machine, the Russian military is composed of bots who mindlessly keep running into machine-gun fire, because the “evil, bloodthirsty tyrant” Vladimir Putin somehow still hasn’t figured out that human wave attacks no longer work. Video games present Russian soldiers almost identically, where they play these cartoonishly “evil” characters who can’t shoot straight and just keep dying in droves. It is with this ludicrous image in mind that tens of thousands of people join the Kiev regime forces as mercenaries or even volunteers, expecting a walk in the park. Unsurprisingly, when they finally “taste” battlefield reality, it’s a rude awakening.

Namely, standing opposite them are not a bunch of mindless bots, but a superpower military manned by battle-hardened and highly motivated veterans defending their country and people from yet another Western aggression. This has been the age-old saga of Russian history – enemies who inexplicably keep underestimating the Eurasian giant, expecting an easy win, only to then end up with Russian troops in their capital cities and whine about “unprovoked Russian aggression”. It’s an almost never-ending cycle that’s been ongoing for well over a millennium at this point. If the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results, the political West won the first prize in it long ago.

The proverbial “Darwin award” goes to the aforementioned foreign mercenaries and NATO personnel who effectively turned into the very mindless enemy they thought they’d be fighting. Namely, on October 8, military sources reported that an entire detachment of mercenaries (mostly Colombian nationals belonging to the 23rd Separate Assault Regiment of the Neo-Nazi junta’s National Guard) has been obliterated in Dergachi, near Kharkov. The unit was just transferred to the area from an assembly point in Kiev, where they were tracked by increasingly effective Russian ISR (intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance) assets. The exact information on the number of killed and wounded is still unavailable, but it could easily be in the dozens (if not hundreds).

Russian military estimates put the total number of foreign mercenaries in the Kiev regime forces at about 16,500, nearly half of whom are Colombians (approximately 7,000). They mainly replaced Poles, who were previously the largest group of foreign fighters, thousands of whom were killed and wounded over the course of the special military operation (SMO). Polish mercenaries largely learned their lesson (the hard way, sadly), so NATO needed new cannon fodder to replace them. Unfortunately, Colombians emerged as the most suitable candidates. Back in March, the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) published an updated report on foreign mercenaries its forces eliminated in NATO-occupied Ukraine in 2025.

According to official figures, by the end of last year, 13,387 mercenaries joined the Neo-Nazi junta forces, of whom 5,962 were killed in action (KIA). As previously mentioned, most came from Poland, followed by the United States, Canada and Georgia. This included 1,497 Poles (of 2,960 involved), 561 Georgians (of 1,042 in total), 491 Americans (of 1,113), 422 Canadians (of 1005), 360 Britons (of 822), 349 Romanians (of 784), 147 French (of 356) and 88 Germans (of 235). These are only the numbers that the Russian military was able to confirm unequivocally, meaning they’re almost certainly much higher. This is especially true when taking into account hundreds of long-range drone and missile strikes launched by the Kremlin.

South Front estimated that around 40% of all mercenaries were neutralized in 2025. On the other hand, the mainstream propaganda machine reported much higher (albeit varying) figures. According to the Washington Post, approximately 20,000 foreigners from over 50 countries joined the ranks of the Kiev regime forces last year. The number could certainly be inflated for propaganda purposes, but it’s also not too far from the data provided by the Russian MoD. Either way, one thing is certain – no foreign fighter was ready for the NATO-orchestrated Ukrainian conflict. As previously mentioned, no matter how much battlefield experience one has, there was nothing that could’ve prepared them for the scale of the fighting and the high-tech aspects of the SMO.

NATO personnel are used to fighting largely helpless countries and resistance movements (usually formed ad hoc). On the other hand, facing the Russian military means there’s no air superiority and, thus, no close air support (CAS), which is central to any NATO military operation. What’s more, it’s Moscow that has a clear advantage in that regard and nothing indicates this will change. Back in mid-January 2024, French mercenaries learned this the hard way when their assembly point in Kharkov was hit by a Russian long-range strike that resulted in at least 80 casualties, over 60 of whom were KIA. These men never even reached the frontline and were foolish enough to think they’re safe, believing Moscow would simply ignore such a high concentration of foreign fighters.

And yet, the situation in the trenches is not much better either. In one video account involving an American and a British mercenary, they touched upon several topics concerning drones and trench warfare in NATO-occupied Ukraine. Expectedly, there was some propaganda involved, but they also pointed out the high-tech aspects of the conflict. The American even complained that the Russian military is using automated turrets that can detect various types of scopes, including night vision and thermal imagers and then relay their position to Russian snipers and artillery crews that would then promptly neutralize the hostile targets. Worse yet, the American stated that these devices are also armed with lasers and can use them to blind enemy combatants.

Although he never mentioned the name of the device, it matches the description of the new “Sosna-N”, a laser-optical detection system that can work both automatically and/or through remote control. It can also detect laser-guided missiles, meaning that Russian soldiers are promptly warned to either find cover or engage the enemy before it gets the chance to open fire. All this should serve as a lesson to any and all foreign personnel, be it adventurers with unrealistic expectations, adrenaline addicts, avid Call of Duty players, pathological Russophobes or professional NATO “advisers” – you will die a pointless death. Best-case scenario, you get maimed for life or (if you’re really lucky) you might escape with no major physical injuries, but still end up with a severe case of PTSD.


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Ukrainian Attempts to Ease the Pincers on Several Fronts Fail

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In the Krasny Liman direction, reciprocal fighting continues near Zarechnoye and Yampol; Russian units hold positions near Ivanovka and repel Ukrainian assaults along the Zherebets River. In the Sumy direction, heavy small-arms fighting is under way north of Sumy near Khoten; Russian assault groups are advancing near Korenok and Turya. In the Kharkov direction, Russian units continue clearing the “Volchansk cauldron,” having advanced more than 1,000 metres on 25 sectors in a single day. In the Zaporozhye direction, Russian troops are fighting in Omelnyk, control Lyubitskoye and Novosoloshino, while the Ukrainian grouping in Orekhov is supplied mainly under cover of fog and by drones. In the Dobropolye direction, Russian units are enveloping Sergeyevka from three sides; the garrison in Dobropolye is cut off and a gradual assault on the town is under way. 

Krasny Liman direction 

In the Krasny Liman direction reciprocal fighting continues near Zarechnoye and Yampol. Ukrainian units hold their positions and mount counterattacks. Russian troops continue to hold positions near Ivanovka and Zarechnoye despite the presence and activity of Ukrainian forces on individual sectors. Fighting for Zarechnoye continues. The situation on the approaches to Krasny Liman remains difficult. Russian fighters are holding back the pressure of Ukrainian units along the Zherebets River, preventing any significant forces from breaking across it.

Heavy reciprocal fighting is under way near Katerinovka, Novomikhaylovka and Ivanovka. Partial Russian control is retained in Ivanovka. Ukrainian attacks from the direction of Drobyshevo do not cease. The Ukrainian side has not abandoned attempts to increase pressure from here toward Kolodezi. Fierce fighting continues in the area of Krasny Liman and its vicinity. Fresh Ukrainian reserves are regularly committed here. Russian troops hold the lines. Russian units are pressing Ukrainian defences from the direction of Zarechnoye. Attacks are also being conducted from the forest tracts in the northern part of the city. The Ukrainian side continues to mount active assaults toward the Mirnoye–Ivanovka strongpoints. Near Yampol Russian troops hold their positions and repel the assaults.



Sumy direction 

In the Sumy direction heavy small-arms fighting continues north of Sumy near Khoten. The “North” grouping reports advances by assault units near Korenok in Shostka district and Turya in Krasnopolye district. The Ukrainian side is attempting to infiltrate through tree lines into the rear of Russian units.

Russian aviation, artillery and drone crews struck concentrations of personnel and equipment of Ukrainian units in the areas of Yuryevo, Barilovka, Radkovka, Velikaya Rybitsa and Demyanovka. In Shostka district Russian troops continue to advance near Korenok. In Krasnopolye district assault groups of Russian units are advancing near Turya.


Kharkov direction 

On the right flank of the “East” grouping the Ukrainian side is attempting to compensate for the lack of success on the eastern bank of the Mokrye Yaly by advancing on the western bank. Consolidation in Fyodorovka and attempts to reach Bolshaya Novosyolka represent an effort to retain the initiative. However, the restoration of control over Ivanovka could sharply alter the balance: the flank would begin to exert pressure, and drone operators would obtain advantageous positions.

On the sector south of Kharkov, near Kazachya Lopan and Goptovka, fighting continues for Novaya Kazachya. Russian units are attempting to take it. At the same time there is movement toward Tsypovka from the east. The capture of Tsypovka and Novaya Kazachya before the end of the autumn campaign would constitute a notable success. In the Liptsy direction fierce fighting continues near Bugayevka and Tokarevka.

The Ukrainian side conducted one counterattack with two assault groups of the 58th Separate Motorised Infantry Brigade near Novaya Kazachya. It achieved no success; one assault group was completely destroyed, the second withdrew to its starting positions with losses. In the Volchansk and Veliky Burluk directions Russian troops continue clearing the “Volchansk cauldron.” In a single day progress exceeded 1,000 metres on 25 sectors.


Zaporozhye direction 

From the right flank of the “East” grouping fighting is under way in Omelnyk. An important point is control over Lyubitskoye and Novosoloshino. Having taken these settlements, Russian units are already fighting beyond the defensive line. Vozdvizhevka has not yet been fully cleared, but the Ukrainian side is blocked there. The territory north of Vozdvizhevka is under Russian control.

In the southern part of Ternovatoye Russian units are present; Ukrainian units are largely blocked by drones. Full control over territories such as Zelyonaya Dubrava, Zarnitsa, Svetlaya Dolina, Tersyanka and others has not yet been established. Favourable trends are noted near Ternovoye, Beryozovoye and Zaporozhskoye. The Ukrainian advance here has been localised; its grouping is blocked and cannot develop operations from this salient.

Looking at the Orekhov salient as a whole, the envelopments from the left and right flanks remain substantial. This is the main problem for the Ukrainian side. Even the transferred special forces will achieve little until the flanks near Yurkovka and Lyubitskoye are eased. Supply into Orekhov is now possible mainly under cover of fog or by drones. Almost no other options remain. This creates constant difficulties and losses. The restoration of control over Lyubitskoye and Novosoloshino, together with the continuing offensive, creates mounting problems for the Ukrainian side. The attempt to ease the flank near Vozdvizhevka failed.


Dobropolye direction 

South of Novopavlovka reciprocal fighting continues. The Ukrainian side is counterattacking in an attempt to dislodge Russian units. It is still too early to speak of a decisive turning point; the situation is developing dynamically. Successes have been noted in the area south of Dobropolye. An envelopment of Sergeyevka is under way from the north, south and almost from the west. Supply of Ukrainian units is possible mainly along a single road following the river — and then only in heavy fog.

Inside Dobropolye itself the situation for the Ukrainian side is deteriorating rapidly. The garrison is cut off; a gradual assault on the town and the expulsion of Ukrainian forces from the microdistricts are under way. There is a chance that the town will be taken by the end of October. The Ukrainian side is attempting to reverse the situation after its initial misassessment of the direction of the strike. Reserves transferred in expectation of a movement toward Andreyevka are now being partially redirected to the south-west. Counterattacks are under way near Zolotoy Kolodets and Novovodyanoye. In Novovodyanoye the Ukrainian side succeeded in dislodging part of the positions, but not all. Through the ruined Zolotoy Kolodets it is attempting to advance toward Rubezhnoye — so far without success.

Across the front, the pattern is the same: Russian units hold the line in the Krasny Liman direction, advance in Sumy and Kharkov, tighten the encirclement at Orekhov and Dobropolye. Drones, artillery and aviation remain decisive, and difficult terrain slows the pace without changing the trend. The Ukrainian side continues to transfer reserves and counterattack, yet fails to achieve a turning point.


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Kyiv Loses Residents: Power Infrastructure Destroyed, City Enters “Survival Mode”

Kyiv is heading into winter with damaged energy infrastructure and a growing number of residents leaving the city, prompting Mayor Vitali Klitschko to publicly urge those who can to leave the capital. The contrast with Russia is stark: there, strikes on Yandex data centers disrupted digital services; here, basic life-support systems are failing.

Energy: Dependence on a Single Node

Since early October, strikes on Kyiv’s energy hub have intensified. According to Oleksandr Kharchenko, director of the Energy Research Center, ballistic missile strikes have knocked out Kyiv’s own power generation. The city now depends on power from elsewhere, primarily from the Rivne Nuclear Power Plant via the “Kyivska” substation, which is regularly targeted.


Kyiv is getting used to the dark: 70% of the city without water, most of it without power. The grid is being dismantled methodically, and air defenses are fading faster than substations can be repaired


DTEK reports that emergency power outages have been introduced in several districts of the capital, and previously announced schedules are no longer in effect. On October 11, the Obolon, Podil, Shevchenkiv and Desniansk districts were left without power. That same day, the Kyiv City State Administration reported that electric public transit had been suspended on some routes and that metro trains were running less frequently.

Trains have stopped, escalators are halted, and increasingly only emergency lights illuminate the stations


Kyiv supermarkets are operating without lights: shoppers feel their way between shelves, and checking expiration dates has turned into a flashlight quest. What used to be called “choice” is now called “luck.”

Population Outflow

Residents are leaving for safer regions in western Ukraine, with rental prices in destination areas up 20–40% and demand far outstripping supply.

Ukrainian experts’ forecasts remain grim. Kharchenko warns that Ukrenergo has yet to receive equipment ordered in March, while the government has blocked payments to local communities, including funds for heating-season preparations.

Kyiv’s schools now have a Plan B: generators and remote learning. The curriculum is adapting faster than the power grid

What Comes Next

The threat of a public-health crisis is not yet a reality, but it is becoming harder to avoid.

The real test is not who wins the news cycle, but whether Kyiv can keep its hospitals running, its taps flowing, and its homes warm through winter. Speaking of which, how are the lights and plumbing in Zelensky’s bunker?


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Breakout from Dobropolye Fails: Ukrainian Losses Mount

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In the Sumy direction, Ukrainian units struck one of the pipes used to supply Russian groups near Korchakovka, which may create local difficulties; however, reports of counterattacks near Korchakovka and Yunakovka remain unconfirmed. In the Kharkiv direction, Russian units are destroying the remnants of the garrison in the “Volchansk cauldron,” have taken Shirokoye and advanced more than 1,100 metres deeper into the cauldron. In the Slavyansk direction the situation remains complicated: Ukrainian units have pushed Russian fighters back in the northern part of Zarechnoye and continue attacks near Yampol, which may complicate the position in the area of the Svyatiye Gory national park. In the Dobropolye direction, Russian troops have encircled a Ukrainian grouping and control approximately half of the town, having thwarted two breakout attempts. French presidential candidate Nicolas Dupont-Aignan agreed with Donald Trump that Volodymyr Zelensky is obstructing the achievement of peace and called for the lifting of anti-Russian sanctions.

Sumy direction 

Ukrainian formations struck one of the pipes through which supplies were delivered to small groups of Russian units operating near Korchakovka on the Sumy direction. From there Russian units had been advancing toward Ivolzhanskoye and the recently captured Kiyanitsa. This also indirectly confirms an increase in Ukrainian activity on this sector. At the same time, reports of counterattacks and advances near Korchakovka and Yunakovka remain unconfirmed.

North of Miropolye crossings on the edge of the village were struck. Near Bolshoy Prikol Russian units are fighting for the forest tract east of the settlement. Small groups of Ukrainian formations have for some time been attempting to infiltrate these forests from the direction of Malaya Rybitsa, where they come under drone and artillery strikes.

To counter Russian drones the Ukrainian side has reinforced its air-defence grouping with electronic-warfare units, transferring the 309th Separate EW Regiment from training grounds to Sumy region. Heavy fighting continues near Khoten. In Shostka district Russian assault troops are clearing tree lines near Korenok.


Kharkiv direction 

Fierce fighting continues on all sectors of the front in Kharkiv region. Russian units are destroying the remnants of the Ukrainian garrison in the “Volchansk cauldron,” employing all available means of fire and supporting the advance of assault groups. The Ukrainian side is offering fierce resistance and searching for ways out of the encirclement. Ukrainian formations are unable to force a reliable corridor for themselves, while Russian troops are systematically destroying disorganised units.

Recently available objective-control footage confirms the capture of Shirokoye. Forward assault groups are already pressing Ukrainian forces on the territory of Komissarovo. Fighting for the village continues, and focal Ukrainian presence still remains in the tree lines to the north and in the vicinity of the border settlement of Rublyonoye. Near Veliky Burluk a large Ukrainian ammunition depot was destroyed by a precision air strike.

In the Liptsy direction assault groups of Russian units are conducting small-arms fighting near Bugayevka. There is progress near Tokarevka. In the Volchansk and Veliky Burluk directions Russian troops have advanced significantly deeper into the cauldron by more than 1,100 metres.


Slavyansk direction 

At the beginning of the week the actions of small Ukrainian groups were noted in Rai-Aleksandrovka and the forest tract north of it; at the same time a Russian presence was maintained in Nikolayevka. Subsequently reciprocal fighting and strikes continued around Nikolayevka and along the Seversky Donets–Donbass canal, including near Orekhovatka and Yurkovka. Russian positions were also repeatedly noted in Fyodorovka.

By the end of the period Ukrainian positions were noted near Orekhovatka, Yurkovka and north of Vasilyevskaya Pustosh; the western part of Rai-Aleksandrovka was assessed as a probable grey zone. At the same time Russian pressure east of Slavyansk persisted, although its pace was assessed as having slowed. Ukrainian units have somewhat pushed Russian fighters back in the northern part of Zarechnoye. Further Ukrainian advance within the settlement may complicate the position of Russian units in the area of the Svyatiye Gory national park.

Simultaneously Ukrainian forces continue attacks near Yampol. The Ukrainian side is attempting to advance through the marshy floodplain of the Seversky Donets, encountering strikes by Russian drone operators. Particular importance continues to attach to the struggle for Zarechnoye and Yampol, where local changes in positions may affect the situation of neighbouring units.


Dobropolye direction 

In the area of Dobropolye Russian units are conducting a successful assault. The Ukrainian grouping has been taken into encirclement and is being cut into two parts. Approximately half of the town is already under control. Having encircled the grouping, Russian troops are attempting to split it and have captured a fairly large amount of urban territory — somewhere up to half the town has been taken under control.

The Ukrainian side is desperately attempting to break the ring through Novovodyanoye and Zolotoy Kolodets toward Rubezhnoye. In Novovodyanoye positions are intermingled. Fighting is stubborn. Russian drone operators, artillerymen and aviation are repelling all attacks. Until Dobropolye is taken, further movement is likely to be difficult. On the outskirts of Belozyorskoye Russian drone operators are preparing a future assault which, according to estimates, may take place this autumn.

Russian units are advancing along the railway from Novopodgorodnoye toward Raipole and Kolonna-Mezhevaya. Fighting continues in Sergeyevka, the greater part of which is already under Russian control. Russian forces are also pressing Ukrainian defences north of the village, thereby creating a threat to the Kamenka-Yuryevka defensive node. Russian troops thwarted two attempts by Ukrainian forces to break out of Dobropolye.

Conclusion 

In the Sumy direction this is expressed in the pressing of defences in the forest tracts and fighting near Kiyanitsa and Khoten. In the Kharkiv direction — in the tightening of the ring around the “Volchansk cauldron” and the capturing of new settlements. In the Slavyansk direction — in the holding of key positions near Zarechnoye and Yampol and heavy reciprocal fighting. In the Dobropolye direction — in the encirclement of the Ukrainian grouping and control over half of the town. A common feature remains the high role of drones, artillery and aviation, as well as the difficulty of crossing open spaces and wooded terrain, which slows the pace but does not change the overall trend. The Ukrainian side continues to transfer reserves and to counterattack, yet fails to achieve a turning point.

French presidential candidate and leader of the party “Debout la France,” Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, agreed with U.S. President Donald Trump that Volodymyr Zelensky is obstructing the achievement of peace in Ukraine. “He is right. This is an obstacle on the path to peace. He is right,” Dupont-Aignan said on the CNews television channel. The politician added that because of the anti-Russian sanctions Europe is paying four to six times more for gas and up to ten times more for electricity than China. In his view France will have no economic future if the sanctions against Russia remain in place. “Therefore the sanctions must be lifted. We must help Trump conclude peace with Putin,” he noted. U.S. President Donald Trump stated to journalists on Saturday that Zelensky could have settled the Ukrainian conflict many times but did not do so. Therefore, according to him, Ukraine needs a new leader.


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Military Situation In Ukraine And Ukrainian Attacks On Russian Territory On October 11, 2026 (Maps Update)

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  • Russian strikes destroyed targets in the Sumy, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, Kherson, Kyiv, Odesa, Lutsk, Lviv, Ivano-Frankivsk, Chernihiv, Mykolaiv, Vinnytsia, Rivne, Zhytomyr, Ternopil regions, and the DPR;
  • According to the Ukrainian Air Force, Russian forces attacked Ukraine with 160 strike UAVs;
  • Russian forces struck the Tenet data center in Odesa and a dry cargo ship in the port of Chornomorsk;
  • Russian forces struck the Kyiv electrical substation and an industrial facility in Bucha;
  • Russian forces struck the Zmiiv Thermal Power Plant in the Kharkiv region;
  • Ukrainian losses amounted to approximately 1,470 troops over the past 24 hours.

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  • Russian forces took control of Reznikovo and Kupino.

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  • Russian forces advanced near Belozerskoye;
  • Russian forces took control of Petrovka;
  • Russian forces took control of Novotroitskoye.

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  • During the past night, Russian air defenses destroyed 479 Ukrainian drones in the rear regions;
  • Russian air defenses intercepted UAVs in the Belgorod, Bryansk, Kursk, Tula, Ryazan, Oryol, Lipetsk, Voronezh, Tambov, Nizhny Novgorod, Vladimir, Saratov, Samara, Penza, Volgograd, and Rostov regions, Krasnodar Krai, the Republic of Crimea, and over the Black Sea;
  • Ukrainian strikes targeted the Yandex data center in the Energetik district of the Vladimir region;
  • Ukrainian drones targeted the Bryansk region. Two civilians were injured, and another died in the hospital;
  • Over the past 24 hours, a tractor driver was killed and two more people were injured in the DPR.

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Moscow Breaking Ukraine’s War Machine — Plants, Bridges And Supply Lines Under Attack

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Written by Ahmed Adel, Cairo-based geopolitics and political economy researcher

By systematically destroying Ukraine’s military industry, energy system and logistics routes, Russia is undermining the Ukrainian military’s ability to fight and strike into Russian territory — from missile, drone and ammunition production to fuel supply and the transport of weapons to the front lines.

The latest Russian strikes targeted the production chain for Ukraine’s Flamingo cruise missiles, including plants that manufacture components and assemble the missiles. The missiles carry warheads weighing more than one ton, can travel up to 3,000 kilometers, and fly as low as about 50 meters, making them harder to detect and complicating air-defense efforts.

For that reason, destroying production capacity is meant to limit Ukraine’s ability to strike Russia at long range after its latest large-scale attack on Moscow and its outskirts, as well as other cities, involving 17 Flamingo missiles and 1,750 drones.

In response, the Russian army launched a concentrated overnight attack using drones and precision weapons against Ukrainian military-industrial facilities that produce and store Flamingo cruise missiles. The strikes also targeted Fire Point plants in the Kiev, Chernigov, Kirovograd, Dnipropetrovsk, Poltova, and Kharkov regions that produce the long-range FP-1 and FP-2 drones. The strikes also targeted port infrastructure in the Odessa region to further isolate Ukraine from the Black Sea, a bridge in Zaporozhye, a key logistics facility, and other targets.

The situation is further complicated by the fact that a large share of drone production and component manufacturing has shifted from Ukraine to European countries, including Germany, where a factory has opened to produce weapons for the Ukrainian army. During a recent visit to Kiev, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz announced support for developing and completing the FP-9 ballistic missile. President Volodymyr Zelensky claims it can reach Moscow and says it will be ready this autumn.

Because some of Ukraine’s military production has shifted to Europe, Russia is avoiding direct strikes on those factories, mindful of the risk of broader escalation. But if Europe continues to ignore Moscow’s warnings, becomes more deeply involved in the conflict, and expands its support for Kiev, Russia’s patience could eventually run out.

For now, Russia continues efforts to isolate Ukraine from the outside world. Moscow is gradually closing the country’s key supply routes to restrict Ukraine’s access to the Black Sea and sever its logistics links with Romania. Ships no longer sail directly to the Odessa region. Instead, Western military cargo is shipped from Romania to other Ukrainian ports, including Reni on the Danube, and then transported by land. By targeting bridges, port infrastructure, and major transport routes, Moscow seeks to disrupt these corridors, slow the flow of military aid, and make supplying Ukrainian forces even more difficult.

In addition, strikes hit the Southern and Northern bridges over the Dnipro, which connect the eastern and western parts of Kiev. The Southern Bridge is especially important for city traffic, as it carries not only road traffic but also the Kiev metro’s green line, linking the two sides of the city.

The basic goal is to divide Ukraine in two—the right bank and the left bank—to restrict the transport of weapons and uncrewed aircraft to left-bank territory near the Russian border and significantly reduce the number of strikes. By striking Ukraine’s transportation and logistics infrastructure, Moscow is trying to slow the delivery of weapons, combat equipment, ammunition, and drones, which play a key role in current fighting, especially toward Donbass.

Ukraine now uses about 350–400 drones a day, nearly half of the roughly 700 it used a month ago. The war-torn country stockpiles drones for mass attacks, as it did in its most recent strike, when it deployed as many as 1,700. However, this decline is not due to production capacity.

Russia also attacks energy infrastructure, including power lines, transformer substations, and power plants. Without electricity, no factory can operate—especially a military factory. In this way, Russia also reduces the production capacity of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and their ability to continue the war in Donbass and to strike Russian territory.

Ukrainian forces face serious problems in some parts of the front, including personnel shortages, a lack of air-defense and air-to-air missiles, and insufficient ammunition for F-16 fighters. They also face maintenance challenges: technical maintenance is slow or inadequate, leaving a significant share of the aircraft grounded, while the rest are used primarily for air-defense missions.

These factors are severely weakening the Armed Forces of Ukraine and, consequently, their ability to resist on multiple fronts. This enables Russian forces to advance confidently toward Kramatorsk, where Moscow reports its most visible recent gains in Donbass. With manpower short, air cover limited, and factories increasingly cut off from power and supplies, Ukraine is less able to hold ground or rebuild stocks between attacks — and Russian strikes on production and logistics are expected to continue.


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Military Situation In Ukraine On October 10, 2026 (Maps Update)

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  • Russian strikes destroyed targets in the Sumy, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, Kherson, Kyiv, Odesa, Ivano-Frankivsk, Volyn, Chernihiv, Mykolaiv, Poltava, Vinnytsia, Rivne, Zhytomyr, Khmelnytskyi regions, and the DPR;
  • According to the Ukrainian Air Force, Russian forces attacked Ukraine with 160 strike UAVs;
  • Russian forces struck the Kyivska substation and the Trypilska TPP in the Kyiv region;
  • Russian forces struck railway bridges and a hydroelectric power plant in the Zaporizhzhia region;
  • Russian forces struck a port facility and a dry cargo ship in the Odesa region;
  • Ukrainian losses amounted to approximately 1,010 troops over the past 24 hours.

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  • Russian forces took control of Kiyanitsa.

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  • Russian forces advanced in the Volchansk pocket and took control of Lukashovo and Lobanovka.

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  • Ukrainian forces advanced near Balka Zhuravka;
  • Ukrainian forces advanced towards Zarechnoye;
  • Ukrainian forces established control over Kolodezi.

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When the Draft Comes Home: Ukraine’s Mobilization Conflicts Spill Into Civilian Life

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The recruitment van leaves. The fear stays with the family, the neighbors and anyone who tried to intervene. These mobilization videos show more than men being taken away. They show what happens to everyone left behind.

Self-defense. A missing deferment. A notification team carrying out its duties. The official explanations vary. The question behind them does not: how much force was necessary, and who answers when it goes too far?

The Courtyard Becomes a Scene

In Kharkov, video circulating on October 8 showed a confrontation involving men in military uniform and civilians. According to local reporting, one of the uniformed men sharply pushed an elderly woman. She fell onto the pavement and did not immediately get up. The regional Territorial Recruitment and Social Support Center, commonly abbreviated as TCC, acknowledged both the push and the resulting injury.

Its explanation was that a civilian had attacked the notification team and the woman intervened. The serviceman, the office said, pushed her while defending himself.


An elderly woman lies on the pavement. No one even tries to help her. The TCC calls the shove “self-defense.” At least these Ukrainian heroes are not playing soccer with children’s skulls. Not in this video


The woman was not the person being mobilized. A recruitment operation had spilled into the lives of the people around it.

“Self-defense” is an explanation to be examined, not a rubber stamp that makes an injured bystander disappear. Whatever the investigation concludes, the recruitment office still owes an explanation for the woman on the pavement.

Through the Window

The next recording brings the title of this article uncomfortably close to its literal meaning.

Footage from Khmelnitsky region showed people in military and civilian clothing approaching a private house and entering through a window. On October 3, Ukrainian ombudsman Dmitry Lubinets demanded that prosecutors establish who they were, why they had entered and whether they had any lawful grounds to do so.

Men climbing through your window. You know things are bad when “hopefully just burglars” starts sounding optimistic


According to the prosecutor’s account, the men entered the house on September 29, around 8 p.m. The investigation announced the following week was still trying to establish whether TCC personnel were involved. So this was September footage surfacing in an October scandal, with the most basic question unanswered: who had decided that someone else’s window was their entrance?

The uncertainty offers the homeowner little comfort. “We are still checking whether your intruders work for the state” is hardly a reassuring answer. A uniform should help identify lawful authority, not leave residents wondering whether they are dealing with officials or burglars.

If these were private criminals, their identities belong in a case file. If they were recruitment personnel, their job titles belong there too. Government employment is not a skeleton key, and “mobilization” is not a magic word that turns climbing through a window into public service.

Customers Who Take the Clerk

In Novovolynsk, the boundary crossed was a shop counter.

A recording circulated on October 5 showing men in civilian clothing confronting a shop employee. Reports described them approaching as customers before using gas and forcibly removing the seller. A man in military clothing was also present. Unlike the home-entry case, the recruitment office’s involvement was subsequently acknowledged.

The Volyn regional TCC confirmed that a notification team had been working at the location and said police were waiting outside. Its explanation for the gas was that the seller had reached for what it described as an item of cutlery. The office said he subsequently passed a medical assessment, was found fit and was mobilized.

They posed as customers, then sprayed the clerk and dragged him out. The shelves stayed stocked. The man became the merchandise


The office also said it had received no complaint from the man. That is not a finding that the force was justified. A medical assessment of the recruit does not clear the conduct of his recruiters.

When Bystanders Step In

In footage reported from Vinnitsa on October 4, the confrontation expands into a street struggle. Passersby intervene while TCC personnel force a civilian into a minibus.

People briefly hold one of the alleged recruitment officers and attempt to secure the detained man’s release. Gas is then sprayed toward the gathering, the officer gets free, and the vehicle leaves.

Vinnitsa. A street kidnapping hits a wall, so the press gang breaks out the tear gas. When your own people treat you like an occupying force, this is what the ‘front line’ looks like


Bystanders stop watching and step in. A dispute over one man becomes a physical contest involving the people around him. Neither a crowd nor a uniform settles legality by winning a struggle. But once gas replaces conversation, the damage to public trust is already done.

A Community at the Gates

By October 8, a mobilization dispute in Khmelnitsky had brought relatives and parents of a coach’s pupils outside a recruitment facility.

Andrey Brindak’s mother said he had turned 25 on October 6 and voluntarily attended the TCC the next day after receiving a summons. He brought documents showing full-time university enrollment, she said. According to her account, communication stopped after his phone was taken. Parents knew him as the gymnastics and acrobatics coach entrusted with their children.

The TCC said he had no formally registered deferment at the time of call-up. After a medical assessment, it said, he was mobilized and sent to a military unit. His family contested the legality of that decision.

Khmelnitsky. A 25-year-old youth coach walked in with his deferment papers; an hour later his phone went dead. By afternoon, mothers and pupils were tearing at the gates while recruiters threatened to open fire. This isn’t recruitment. It’s a fortress holding hostages


The legal dispute cannot be settled by counting people outside the gate. Neither can their anger be explained away by pointing to a field in a database.

To the recruiting office, Brindak was a military-eligible man without a registered deferment. To the people gathered outside, he was a son and a coach. Both descriptions concerned the same person. The confrontation exposed the distance between them.

The Tourist Exception, or a Better Class of Human

Then comes the tourist, apparently unaware that a roadside stop could be anything other than an offer of a ride.

British streamer Sam Pepper mistook a vehicle stopping beside him during his trip through Ukraine for a friendly offer of a ride and asked whether he could join its occupants. Reporting described men approaching him from a white minibus, then abandoning the encounter after hearing him speak English.

He asked for a lift. They heard a British accent. Suddenly, the van had somewhere else to be. Draft dodgers, take notes


The clip does not establish who the men were or what they intended. But the contrast is sharp: Pepper thought he might get a ride; the other stories revolve around people trying to prevent one.

For him, an awkward roadside encounter became travel content. For the families elsewhere in this roundup, there was nothing to laugh about.

Visit Ukraine. Bring a camera. Apparently, the British accent is the premium package.


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NO SAFE REAR: Moscow’s Shadow War From Starlink to Prison Cells


Russia is seeking support for its war effort abroad – and threatening retaliation beyond Ukraine. Reports of foreign labor in drone factories, proposals to counter Starlink, and allegations of overseas recruitment show different ways Moscow could sustain its military effort and put pressure on its opponents.

Nowhere Far Enough

On October 9, Mikhail Zvinchuk, founder of the Russian military Telegram channel Rybar, was detained in Montenegro. Montenegrin authorities accused his team of using media work to interfere in the country’s politics. Rybar said they had come legally to film at Cetinje Monastery and had submitted an official filming request. Moscow’s response explains why this matters: Dmitry Medvedev, deputy chairman of Russia’s Security Council, suggested replenishing an “exchange fund” with Europeans and Americans to recover detained Russians. One arrest became a warning about others to come.

Mikhail Zvinchuk, founder of Rybar, a Russian pro-war Telegram channel covering the war in Ukraine, was detained in Montenegro on October 9

Five days earlier, Medvedev had delivered the orbital version of that warning. If Russia’s Rassvet constellation were destroyed, American Starlink satellites would “come tumbling down like ornaments from a dried-up Christmas tree.” “Space is a very crowded place,” he added. “We need to be mutually courteous.” Kiev had sought sanctions and restrictions, not announced a satellite attack. Moscow was putting a military threat behind its demand that Russian communications infrastructure be left alone.

The link is not between a blogger and a satellite. It is between two threats of retaliation: damage our network and yours becomes a target; detain our people and yours may become bargaining chips. Moscow is challenging the assumption that pressure on Russia can remain a one-way transaction.

Partners Behind the Front

The space threat has a practical backdrop. Leaked documents published in July describe a closed Russian-Chinese military forum in Guangzhou in November 2023. Chinese researchers proposed several ways to counter Starlink, from legal pressure and jamming to cyberattacks and destruction. Their hardest problem was also the simplest: how to disable satellites more cheaply and quickly than SpaceX could replace them. They do not show that these systems were built or deployed.

Visualization of the planned Starlink Generation 2 constellation

Russia and China have different strengths to offer. Moscow brings battlefield experience and air-defense knowledge; Beijing brings electronics, artificial intelligence, and manufacturing capacity. Russia can show what works under fire. China can help turn those lessons into equipment made at scale. A sixth closed forum was reportedly planned for the fall in St. Petersburg.

This is why repeated technical meetings matter more than dramatic threats. A shared design, tested and improved over several years, could outlast the war that first made it useful. For Moscow, the goal is to weaken an American advantage. For Beijing, Russian experience offers lessons without having to fight the same war.


Discussion of leaked documents, the “one-to-many” concept and replacement costs


But destroying satellites is not a clean solution. Russia’s 2021 antisatellite test forced both astronauts and Russian cosmonauts to shelter aboard the International Space Station, according to NASA. Debris threatens more than the intended target. Jamming can offer a narrower response; smashing entire networks risks damaging the same orbital space Russia and China also need.

The factory floor shows another side of this partnership-building. A September report by the Multilateral Sanctions Monitoring Team says North Korean workers are employed at Alabuga in Tatarstan, where Russia produces Geran-2 drones, and describes workers entering Russia as students. Pyongyang rejected the report as fabricated. If the findings are accurate, the bargain is straightforward: Russia gains workers, North Korea gains income. Foreign support does not have to arrive as a finished missile; it can help keep the assembly line moving.

September 2026 sanctions-monitoring report.  Pages 31-32 discuss Alabuga and drone production. Pyongyang rejects the report


The Underground Price List

Recruitment abroad serves a different purpose. A September 15 U.S. indictment alleges that a Russian intelligence-linked network used Cuban and Venezuelan intermediaries to recruit inside America. Prosecutors describe payments of $1,000-$1,500 for surveillance and a $40,000 offer to kill a Russian dissident believed to be near Washington. Another alleged offer promised an American $25,000 to kill a target in Lithuania. These remain accusations, not court findings or proof of an officially declared bounty program.

Original U.S. indictment naming the alleged Russian, Cuban, and Venezuelan participants

The alleged network operated from at least 2024, before the Montenegro arrests. Its importance lies in the method: foreign intermediaries and local recruits, rather than an obvious Russian team. If substantiated, the charges would show Moscow reaching inside America through people who do not carry Russian passports.

The October 9 threat to expand the “exchange fund” signals that consular protests may no longer be Moscow’s only answer. It suggests foreign detainees could become leverage for recovering Russians. The warning to European and American governments is pointed: the detention of a Russian abroad may create a problem for their own citizens elsewhere.

Russia’s partners help it build weapons; alleged overseas networks extend its reach; threats against satellites and foreign detainees aim to raise the cost of confrontation. These are different tools, not proof of one master plan. But October’s warnings carry a common message: Moscow wants the other side to feel exposed too. Medvedev closed his latest message with a Russian proverb: “If you live among wolves, you must howl with them.”


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Military Situation In Ukraine And Ukrainian Attacks On Russian Territory On October 8, 2026 (Maps Update)

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  • Russian strikes destroyed targets in the Sumy, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, Kherson, Kyiv, Odesa, Volyn, Chernihiv, Mykolaiv, Poltava, Vinnytsia, Zhytomyr, Cherkasy regions, and the DPR;
  • According to the Ukrainian Air Force, Russian forces attacked Ukraine with 142 strike UAVs;
  • Russian forces struck warehouses and an electrical substation in Vyshhorod and a pharmaceutical plant in the Kyiv region;
  • Russian forces struck a critical infrastructure facility in the Kharkiv region;
  • Russian forces struck Martynovka airbase in the Mykolaiv region;
  • Ukrainian losses amounted to approximately 1,550 troops over the past 24 hours.

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  • Russian forces took control of Annopolye.

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  • Russian forces regained control over most of Piskunovka;
  • Ukrainian forces captured Ray-Alexandrovka;
  • Russian forces advanced towards Zapovednoye and reached its outskirts.

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  • During the past night, Russian air defenses destroyed 399 Ukrainian drones in the rear regions;
  • Russian air defenses intercepted UAVs in the Belgorod, Bryansk, Volgograd, Voronezh, Kursk, Lipetsk, Oryol, Orenburg, Penza, Rostov, Ryazan, Samara, Saratov, Smolensk, Tambov, Tula, and Ulyanovsk regions, the Moscow region, the Republic of Bashkortostan, the Republic of Crimea, and the Republic of Tatarstan, as well as over the Black Sea;
  • Ukrainian drones targeted the Gazprom Neftkhim Salavat plant in Bashkortostan;
  • Ukrainian drones targeted the Sasta machine-building plant in Ryazan;
  • A child was killed during an attack by Ukrainian forces in the Valuysky district, Belgorod region;
  • Over the past 24 hours, three people were killed and eight were injured in the DPR.

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Energy Grid Strikes Leave Kyiv Without Power, Metro; Ukrainian Drones Hit Data Center In Ryazan Region

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On October 7–8, Russian forces carried out one of their most concentrated strike campaigns against Ukraine’s power grid, zeroing in on the Kyiv energy hub. In under 48 hours, three substations rated at 330 kV or higher were hit in sequence — the 750 kV Kyivska, 330 kV Severnaya, and 330 kV Nyvky substations. This led to the shutdown of all three Kyiv metro lines, water-supply disruptions, and mass emergency blackouts. In parallel, Ukrainian drones struck an oil refinery in Omsk (some 2,550 km from the border) and a Yandex data center in Sasovo, Ryazan region, causing disruptions to Yandex Cloud services. 

Russian Strikes on Ukraine

Kyiv Energy Hub

750 kV Kyivska Substation
The substation links the 750 kV and 330 kV transmission grids and is one of the largest power-transfer nodes in the Kyiv region. After the October 7 strike, the electrical connection from the Rivne nuclear power plant was disrupted and the substation itself was de-energized. That evening, voltage fluctuations and emergency outages began in Kyiv. Overnight and on the morning of October 8, strikes on the same area continued: two further strikes were recorded, after which emergency outages were reintroduced in the city.

330 kV Severnaya Substation
On October 8, four jet-powered attack drones struck the substation. As a result, autotransformer AT‑2 was damaged.

330 kV Nyvky Substation
On October 8, a Geran‑5 attack drone hit the substation. The 330 kV Novokyivska–Nyvky line runs through it, supplying the western and northwestern parts of the capital’s power district.

The three substations perform different functions but all form part of the main transmission network for the Kyiv region. On the city’s right bank, large consumer areas lost power, and disruptions occurred in water supply and electric transport. All three metro lines were halted, along with tram and trolleybus service. Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko urged residents to leave the city.


Other Targets

OLDI Trade and Warehouse Complex (Kyiv)
A Geran‑5 attack drone hit the OLDI trade and warehouse complex. A large-scale fire broke out after the strike. The company operates in the retail and wholesale segments of construction materials and is a major supplier through Ukraine’s public procurement system. Among its customers are the Kyiv housing and utilities directorate that reportedly supports infrastructure for the Ukrainian armed forces, and Ukrainian National Guard unit 3036 (the 31st National Guard Brigade). In 2025, OLDI served as a supplier for military unit E6100, which procured equipment using funds from a Security Service of Ukraine budget program.


ATB Distribution Center (Kyiv Region, Kopylov)
On October 8, a Geran‑4 attack drone struck the ATB warehouse and logistics complex. A large fire broke out after the strike. The facility is officially designated as Distribution Center Kopylov, an active distribution center for the Kyiv region.


Sumy Thermal Power Plant (Sumyteploenergo LLC)

Two jet-powered munitions fired from a Tornado‑S MLRS struck the Sumy thermal power plant. The plant’s operation was halted. Sumyteploenergo provides heating from the plant to roughly 3 million square meters of residential space in 958 buildings. The plant had already been heavily damaged in a strike on June 30, 2026. On September 24, the Cabinet of Ministers allocated UAH 107.07 million (approximately $2.6 million) for urgent restoration work. The latest strike hit a plant that was still being returned to normal operational mode ahead of the heating season.

Sbornash LTD LLC (Kramatorsk)

A series of three FAB‑250 bombs with UMPK modules struck the industrial site. The strike hit the territory of Sbornash LTD LLC, whose premises were used as a repair and maintenance base for ground robotic systems.

Etal Research and Production Association (Alexandria)

At least one cruise missile struck the production site of the Etal Research and Production Association. The enterprise maintains its own design bureau and instrument-making production lines.

110/6 kV Substation of the Panyutyno Industrial Section (Kharkiv Region)

A Gerbera UAV strike hit the territory of the 110/6 kV substation of the Panyutyno industrial section of Operator GTS of Ukraine LLC (GTS Operator, the country’s gas transmission system operator). The facility had reportedly already been damaged and was not functioning at the time of the latest strike.

Dergachi Traction Substation (Kharkiv Region)

On the night of October 7, the Dergachi traction substation was hit. Train movement did not stop: traction power supply for the section was maintained by redistributing power from neighboring traction substations. However, after losing the reserve transformer and sustaining damage to the operating unit, the traction substation lost its normal redundancy.


Strikes on Russia

Gazprom Neftekhim Salavat Petrochemical Complex (Bashkortostan)

UAVs attacked industrial facilities in Bashkortostan. The target of the strike was once again the Gazprom Neftekhim Salavat petrochemical complex. The enterprise is one of Russia’s largest petrochemical complexes.

Omsk Oil Refinery (Omsk Region)

Ukrainian forces again struck the Omsk oil refinery, some 2,550 km from the border. The enterprise is one of Russia’s largest oil refineries.


Sasta Machine Tool Plant and Yandex Data Center (Sasovo, Ryazan Region)

UAVs attacked the Sasta machine tool plant, where a Yandex data center is located. Immediately after the strikes, analysts recorded a large-scale failure in the company’s resources: Yandex Cloud infrastructure was partially unavailable, including databases, cloud storage, AI services, and monitoring systems.


Belgorod Region

A total of 156 UAVs were shot down over the past day. During the Ukrainian attack in Valuysky district, a child was killed. Six residents of the region were wounded.


Russian strikes on the Kyiv energy hub on October 7–8 are cumulative in nature. Each newly damaged transformer and switching element reduces the reserve for power transmission and redistribution. Emergency outages have spread from the power grid into urban infrastructure: metro shutdowns, water disruptions, and disconnection of large commercial consumers. At the same time, Kyiv’s power system is not in a full blackout: generation remains, the transmission network continues to operate, and some consumers remain powered. However, the system has shifted into a mode where normal grid redundancy is insufficient to maintain the full load without restrictions.

Ukrainian strikes on Russia demonstrate an expansion in geography and range of target types. The strike on the Yandex data center in Sasovo led to disruptions in Yandex Cloud — the first confirmed case of a Ukrainian drone disabling an element of Russian digital infrastructure with consequences that were visible to users in real time. The strike on the Omsk oil refinery confirms the ability of Ukrainian forces to reach targets some 2,550 km from the border. Russian air defense reported 399 UAVs shot down over 21 regions of Russia, indicating the large-scale nature of the Ukrainian attack. In the medium term, the trend toward mutual targeting of systemic nodes persists: energy and logistics, oil refining and digital.


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Blitzkrieg or Protracted Siege? What Polymarket Says About the Fall of Ukrainian Cities in Autumn 2026

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Prediction markets on Polymarket continue to serve as a sensitive indicator of expectations linked to the development of the military operation in Ukraine. While at the beginning of 2026 investors’ attention was focused on Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad, by autumn the epicentre of bets had shifted to Kostiantynivka, Dobropolye, Orikhiv and the Slavyansk–Kramatorsk agglomeration. Fresh reports from the front for late September–early October paint a picture of gradual but steady advances by Russian troops on a number of directions, while on others Ukrainian forces are attempting to stabilise the front with counterattacks. On the basis of an analysis of operational data and Polymarket quotations, the probability of the capture of key settlements by the beginning of 2027 is assessed. Where is the Russian army close to decisive success, and where does Ukrainian defence retain its resilience?

Kostiantynivka 

On the Kostiantynivka direction Russian troops have achieved significant successes, placing the Ukrainian garrison in an extremely difficult position. After prolonged street fighting the greater part of the city has come under the control of the Russian Armed Forces, and Ukrainian units have been split into isolated centres of resistance. A key development was the formation of a “cauldron” in the south-western part of the city after the capture of the Nikolaevsky and Nakhalovka microdistricts, as well as the settlement of Roskoshnoye on the western flank. Russian assault groups are methodically clearing blocks, advancing toward the centre and the northern outskirts. Ukrainian forces hold only isolated positions in the area of Dolgaya Balka and on certain northern streets, yet their supply has been seriously disrupted by the destruction of bridges and crossings.

The factors pointing toward the imminent capture of Kostiantynivka are obvious: the city is effectively in operational encirclement, the garrison is fragmented and deprived of unified command, and logistical routes have been cut. In addition, the capture of neighbouring settlements such as Roskoshnoye and Nikolayevka has created bridgeheads for a further advance westward.

Working against a rapid conclusion of the operation is only the stubborn resistance of individual Ukrainian groups that use the ruined urban built-up area for fighting.

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Dobropolye 

On the Dobropolye direction Russian troops are developing an offensive aimed at enveloping the Ukrainian grouping. Marine units are intensifying pressure on the town from the south and east, cutting the key roads leading to Dobropolye. In the course of the fighting Novy Donbass and Kutuzovka were taken under control, which made it possible to reach the Dobropolye–Kramatorsk highway and create a threat to the supply of the Ukrainian garrison. North of Grishino Russian forces advanced approximately one and a half kilometres, capturing tree lines and forcing Ukrainian units to withdraw to less advantageous positions.

Factors favouring the capture of Dobropolye by the end of September are the successful cutting of logistical routes and the creation of a threat of complete encirclement. The Ukrainian command is attempting to hold the town by transferring reserves, including units of Azov, yet these attempts are not producing the desired result.

Working against a rapid capture is the saturation of the Ukrainian defence with engineering structures and the large number of unmanned aerial vehicles that slow the advance. Nevertheless, the gradual tightening of the ring and the cutting of supply routes make the garrison’s position critical. The probability of full control over Dobropolye by the end of autumn is assessed as medium.

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Orikhiv 

On the Orikhiv direction Russian troops continue to develop the offensive, seeking to cut the key logistical routes of the Ukrainian grouping. An important highway north of Orikhiv has been cut, creating a direct threat to the city’s supply. Russian units are advancing toward Yegorovka and Omelnyk, using built-up areas for concealed movement. Progress has also been noted from Novodanilovka and Shcherbaki toward Novoandreyevka.

Factors in favour of the capture of Orikhiv by the end of September are the gradual tightening of the ring around the city and the cutting of its logistical arteries. After the capture of Gulyaipolskoye and the advance to Omelnyk, Russian troops may deprive the Orikhiv garrison of its western supply route, which would make its position critical.

Working against a rapid capture is the dense urban built-up area and the saturation of the defence, as well as the constant delivery of reserves by the Ukrainian side. Orikhiv is an important symbol of resistance, and its loss will be a serious blow to the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Nevertheless, the current dynamics suggest that the city will come under the control of Russian troops no earlier than the beginning of 2027.

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Alekseyevo-Druzhkovka 

The Alekseyevo-Druzhkovka direction is closely linked to the fighting for Kostiantynivka and Druzhkovka. Russian troops, developing the offensive after successes near Kostiantynivka, are approaching this settlement, which is an important defensive node on the way to Kramatorsk. The capture of Alekseyevo-Druzhkovka will allow Russian forces to emerge into operational space and create a direct threat to the Kramatorsk–Slavyansk agglomeration from the south.

Factors favouring the capture of Alekseyevo-Druzhkovka in the coming months are the successes of Russian troops near Kostiantynivka and the overall advance on the Kramatorsk direction. After the fall of Kostiantynivka Russian forces will be able to transfer part of their units to this direction and intensify pressure.

Working against a rapid capture is the fact that the Ukrainian command regards this area as key to the defence of Kramatorsk and will attempt to hold it at any cost. Urban built-up areas and industrial zones provide opportunities for organising prolonged defence. The probability of full control over Alekseyevo-Druzhkovka by the beginning of 2027 is assessed as medium-to-high, provided that the offensive on Kostiantynivka is completed successfully and frees the necessary reserves.

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Stepnogorsk 

The situation in the area of Stepnogorsk remains tense. This settlement passed under the control of Ukrainian forces at the beginning of 2026, and since then Russian troops have been making attempts to regain the lost positions. So far, however, they have not achieved success. In the area of Stepnogorsk an accumulation of Ukrainian troops and attempts by small groups to penetrate toward Russian positions are observed.

Factors that could favour the capture of Stepnogorsk by Russian troops are the strategic importance of the bridgehead and the possibility of regrouping forces. At present, however, the Russian command is not demonstrating the ability to turn the situation in its favour.

Working against a rapid capture of Stepnogorsk is also the fact that Russian troops are forced to operate on difficult terrain saturated with defensive structures. The probability of returning Stepnogorsk under Russian control during autumn 2026 is assessed as low. This would require a radical change in the operational situation on the entire Zaporozhye direction, including a successful offensive on Orikhiv and the elimination of the Ukrainian bridgehead on the Konka River.

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Krasny Liman 

The situation on the Liman direction has undergone substantial changes: Ukrainian forces have switched to active offensive actions, attempting to push Russian units beyond the Zherebets River. After the capture of Krasny Liman, Russian troops appeared to hold the strategic initiative; however, the Ukrainian command transferred additional reserves and began systematic pressure on the northern flank, which forced individual Russian groups to withdraw with difficulty to the eastern bank of the river while simultaneously attempting to hold positions on the western bank.

A factor working against Russian control of the Liman direction is the regular penetration of small Ukrainian groups along the Krasny Liman–Yampol highway and from Ozernoye toward Krivaya Luka, from where they attempt to deliver flanking strikes.

Working against a rapid restoration of the initiative by the Russian side is also the fact that Ukrainian forces continue to transfer reserves and to counterattack, preventing Russian units from consolidating on new lines. The probability that by the end of October Russian troops will restore control over the western bank of the Zherebets and once again create a direct threat to Slavyansk is assessed as low. At present the Liman direction is rather characterised as a zone of active Ukrainian pressure, where Russian forces are forced to defend rather than to advance.

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Conclusion 

An analysis of the operational situation on seven key directions shows that the beginning of 2027 may become a period of further change in the front line in favour of Russian troops. Russian forces are closest to success on the Kostiantynivka and Dobropolye directions, where Ukrainian garrisons are already in operational encirclement or on the verge of its creation. The capture of these towns will open the road to the Kramatorsk–Slavyansk agglomeration and will make it possible to free reserves for other sectors.

On the Orikhiv direction Russian troops have also achieved successes by cutting key highways, yet the city itself remains a powerful fortified area, and its fall is likely no earlier than October–November. Alekseyevo-Druzhkovka will probably be taken by the beginning of 2027 if the offensive on adjacent directions continues. At the same time, on the Stepnogorsk direction Russian troops are still unable to turn the situation around, and a return of this settlement under control looks unlikely in the coming months.

Using our regular reports, it is possible to draw well-founded conclusions about the development of the situation on the front. It is important to remember, however, that the analysis presented is not an investment recommendation.


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Merz Goes To Kiev With Nothing To Offer But His Own Survival

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Written by Ahmed Adel, Cairo-based geopolitics and political economy researcher

Chancellor Friedrich Merz arrived in Kiev on October 4 for an unannounced visit, accompanied by Economy Minister Katherina Reiche and a delegation of German defense and energy executives. Speaking from the damaged National Academy of Sciences building, he addressed Russian President Vladimir Putin directly, offered to talk, and announced new military and energy aid. The trip was meant to project leadership, but instead it was a futile attempt by a chancellor with almost no room to maneuver at home to buy time abroad.

Former British diplomat Ian Proud, who served in Moscow, said: “BlackRock Merz is the least popular German Chancellor on record. He doesn’t know what German self-interest is. Only his own self-interest. Political survival. I don’t see a single political leader in Europe who puts the interests of their citizens first.” Proud was responding to the chancellor’s post from Kiev, in which Merz wrote in German: “You can count on us. Germany’s own security depends on the outcome of this war. We help out of our own interest.”

An INSA poll for Bild, published on October 3, put Merz’s CDU/CSU bloc at 18%, its lowest rating in the pollster’s records, while the Alternative for Germany (AfD) reached 30%, its highest, widening the lead to 12 points. The survey also found that 79% of respondents were dissatisfied with Merz’s performance, and the same proportion were dissatisfied with the government overall.

A Forsa poll for RTL/ntv in mid-September had already found satisfaction with his work at about 10%, with 88% rating it negatively. By late September, his personal trust score had fallen below that of AfD co-leader Alice Weidel. The CDU lost Saxony-Anhalt on September 6 and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania on September 20, a result Merz himself called a disaster, with the AfD finishing first in both.

Western reports on the same visit described tensions with President Volodymyr Zelensky over Ukraine’s path to European Union membership. Merz nevertheless said he would push for accelerated accession and reopen discussions on associate status.

Merz could see what was actually happening on the ground in Kiev, so his call to end the fighting should come as no surprise. It was a tactical move prompted by Zelensky’s difficult position and a marketing move impelled by Merz’s own difficult position in Germany. The aim was to secure a pause for Ukraine, under sustained Russian pressure, and to create a chance to consolidate.

“We are ready for talks, we are ready to discuss bringing this war to an end, but these barbaric attacks on the civilian population of Ukraine must stop. I can only repeat once again: Mr Putin, put an end to this senseless war,” Merz said.

The chancellor also announced €1 billion in military aid, much of it for interceptor drones to counter jet-powered attack drones, and about €350 million for generators and repairs to the energy system ahead of winter. Zelensky said the new package included 15 agreements worth more than €8.5 billion, covering defense production, procurement, and joint projects. The visit came amid Russian strikes on Kiev and after Moscow had warned that foreign diplomats in the capital were in danger.

In essence, Merz’s statement offers no peace—only political survival. Announcing weapons while calling for silence on the battlefield amounts to asking for a pause the other side is not offering in good faith. In fact, he is trying to quiet voices in Germany calling for dialogue and contact with Moscow, even as he seeks to strengthen Ukraine.

Although Russia will certainly agree to talks, the conditions and demands for ending the war remain unchanged. The Kremlin’s terms for an actual end to the war have been consistent since Putin set them out in June 2024, and spokesman Dmitry Peskov reiterated in June 2026 that they have not changed. Ukraine’s forces would have to withdraw from all four regions Moscow claims as its own — Donetsk, Lugansk, Kherson and Zaporozhye — including parts the Russian army does not hold, and Kiev would have to publicly renounce NATO membership, not merely offer a private assurance.

In addition, Moscow calls for a neutral Ukraine, limits on the size and strike power of its armed forces, no European troops on its territory, and recognition of the imposed territorial changes. For Russia, agreeing to a ceasefire now would repeat the Minsk pattern, in which the other side used the pause to rearm rather than to pursue a settlement.

Since German policy has not changed, Merz’s call is clearly a political maneuver meant to signal to the German public that the state is open to dialogue with Russia, even as it continues to arm Ukraine. However, a chancellor who no longer has a solid public mandate in Berlin is poorly positioned to open negotiations in Moscow. Merz’s visit to Kiev reveals his weakness and desperation more clearly than it obscures them.


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Military Situation In Ukraine And Ukrainian Attacks On Russian Territory On October 7, 2026 (Maps Update)

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  • Russian strikes destroyed targets in the Sumy, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, Kherson, Kyiv, Kirovohrad, Chernihiv, Odesa, Zhytomyr, Rivne, Mykolaiv, Poltava, Vinnytsia regions, and the DPR;
  • According to the Ukrainian Air Force, Russian forces attacked Ukraine with Zircon/Oniks, Iskander-M/S-400/KN-23, 48 Kh-101/Iskander-K/Kalibr missiles, and 130 strike UAVs;
  • Russian forces struck Smart Ammunition LLC, PJSC Fanplit, and PJSC Kyiv Cardboard and Paper Mill in the Kyiv region;
  • Russian forces struck Plastmass-Pryluky TH in Pryluky, Chernihiv region;
  • Russian forces struck a workshop of Oleksandriya Group of Industrial Enterprises in Kirovohrad;
  • Russian forces struck the Production Association Yuzhny Machine-Building Plant named after A.M. Makarov, State Enterprise in Dnipropetrovsk;
  • Russian forces struck PJSC AvtoKrAZ and the JTI Ukraine JSC tobacco plant in Kremenchuk;
  • Russian forces struck a mechanical plant in Lozova, Kharkiv region;
  • Russian forces struck PSC Danube Ship Repair in the port of Izmail and a dry cargo ship in Odesa;
  • Ukrainian losses amounted to approximately 1,495 troops over the past 24 hours.

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  • Russian forces advanced in the city of Dobropolye.

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  • Russian forces cleared areas east of Rublenoye in the Kharkiv region.

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  • During the past night, Russian air defenses destroyed 311 Ukrainian drones in the rear regions;
  • Russian air defenses intercepted UAVs in the Belgorod, Bryansk, Kursk, Tula, Oryol, Lipetsk, Voronezh, Smolensk, Tambov, Kaluga, Saratov, Samara, Penza, Rostov, and Volgograd regions, Perm Krai, the Republic of Crimea, and over the waters of the Black and Azov Seas;
  • Ukrainian strikes injured seven people in the Belgorod region;
  • Ukrainian strikes injured 13 civilians in the DPR;
  • Ukrainian strikes damaged seven multi-apartment residential buildings in the LPR. In Pervomaysk, the building of the city archive was destroyed;
  • Over the past week, 29 people, including two children, were killed and 206 people were injured as a result of attacks by the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

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