Across Europe, officials are issuing unprecedented warnings about a sharp escalation in Russian aggression and an even larger one that could soon come. As a result, they are scrambling to protect against the rapidly evolving threat Russia poses.
The dire messaging, growing louder by the day, is being delivered amid concerns about intensifying hybrid attacks that Russia is using to spread fear throughout the continent, fray the NATO alliance, and make it think twice about continuing support for Ukraine. Intel has increasingly pointed to the possibility that this could culminate in a much more severe operation, one that would be aimed to challenge NATO at its core.
All this is taking place against the backdrop of the Russian full-scale invasion of Ukraine that shows no signs of abating. Kyiv just launched its largest drone attack on Moscow, which is burning on a near nightly basis amid ongoing strikes while Ukraine has introduced a new ballistic missile to its long-range arsenal. Russia for its part continues to try to advance on the ground in the east and south as it carries out daily airstrikes across Ukraine.
Our long-range responses had a very significant impact in the Moscow region last night. One of Russia’s key oil industry facilities and the aggressor’s logistics facility were hit. These are billions of dollars that sustain the war machine. The systems used included FP-1, RZ-100,… pic.twitter.com/ka5mlDSgb7
— Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) September 20, 2026
“There has definitely been an uptick” in Russian so-called hybrid warfare actions of late, a senior NATO military official told TWZ on Monday morning. “Despite its accusatory statements towards NATO, which remains a purely defensive alliance, Russia remains the aggressor. We see that clearly in Ukraine, where Russia is losing more than just the war it started. It therefore may incorrectly perceive the only way out is through increasing its hybrid campaign. That’s a losing proposition, because we are ready to respond, which we have shown.”
The official’s comments come after the shoot down last week of a suspected Russian drone that entered Lithuanian airspace from Belarus and in the wake of recent defensive actions by several European nations.
On Friday, French President Emmanuel Macron told reporters that his country had recently been targeted by Russian hybrid attacks. He ordered “the government to prepare a plan to protect our critical infrastructure” and the “most sensitive” defense industry and technology sites against drone and cyberattacks.”
Macron said the “intention behind it is to intimidate us and to derail the effort to support the Ukrainians. The consequence will be the opposite.”
In addition to Macron’s warnings, the French newspaper Le Monde reported that the French military was carrying out clandestine operations against Russia. However, the unnamed source cited offered no details and TWZ cannot independently verify that claim.
A day before Macron’s statements, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk warned in a speech to the Polish parliament that Russia is planning hybrid strikes with drones or rockets on European countries supporting Ukraine, including Poland.
The Polish leader offered an assessment about Moscow’s motives similar to Macron’s.
Russia will pretend the attacks are “accidental” in order to “paralyze or at least weaken the motivation of NATO countries” to rush to the defense of the member state coming under attack, The Associated Press noted.
“There is a real risk that drones or other types of projectiles will enter the territory of one or several countries on the eastern flank and even cause destruction,” Tusk cautioned. In July, a Russian AS-23 cruise missile crashed in Poland.
In the face of these growing threats, officials in Lithuania are updating evacuation plans in case of a Russian attack.
“Poland is to be one of the evacuation destinations from the capital,” Žygimantas Solovjovas, head of the Civil Defense Department at Vilnius City Hall, told Polish Radio.
Evacuation should begin before a direct threat arises, Solovjovas stressed. “Vilnius residents should not assume that they will flee the city along an evacuation route while under fire,” Solovjovas explained, adding that in such a situation, one must seek shelter.
“One of the reasons for preparing this plan was to get residents accustomed to the idea that this should be a controlled process,” he noted. “If we allow chaos to ensue, the entire operation will be much more difficult.”
In Germany, where Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said Russia could attack by 2029, hospitals are preparing for a future influx of war-related casualties.
“In a report that gamed out potential scenarios should Russia invade NATO territory, the Bundeswehr calculated that as many as 1,000 wounded soldiers could arrive in Germany each day,” Bloomberg News reported last week. “As the country’s five military hospitals would quickly reach capacity — and the law requires that civilian hospitals help during wartime — the system would likely come under unprecedented strain, and could be forced to triage soldier and civilian care.”
As we noted last week, the alliance writ large is taking action against the growing Russian threats as well.
NATO’s air commander, U.S. Air Force Lt. Gen. Jason T. Hinds, told reporters, including from TWZ, last week that he was tasked with implementing two NATO air and missile defense plans. Hinds is also the Air Force’s top officer in Europe, serving as the commander of U.S. Air Forces in Europe/U.S. Air Forces Africa (USAFE).
Adding to the concerns about Moscow’s actions, Russia’s client state Belarus just wrapped up mechanized and tank battalion training adjacent to the Suwalki Gap. That’s the border between Poland and Lithuania that separates the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad from Belarus. It has long been considered a potential flashpoint for a war in Europe and the training exercise exacerbated concerns that NATO allies are not prepared for a Russian attack there.
Russia is also making some potentially concerning preparations.
The Defense Ministry is reportedly seeking “an additional 16,000 to 20,000 hospital beds for wounded soldiers in the Northwestern Federal District,” according to the Russian Volya Telegram channel. That district is located near the Baltics.
“Military hospitals have been struggling to cope with the influx of wounded since 2023, so the Ministry of Defense is increasingly using civilian hospitals (including maternity hospitals and specialized medical facilities) for its needs,” Volya stated. “Some of these hospitals are being completely repurposed for military use, but more often, civilian hospitals allocate a few departments to treat the wounded, while continuing to provide care for civilian patients in other departments.”
The expansion “will primarily affect regions within the Northwestern Federal District: Karelia, St. Petersburg, Leningrad and Novgorod regions, as well as Smolensk,” which are near the Baltics “and the Moscow regions.”
While Russia is framing this as a way to handle the influx of wounded from the ongoing conflict, Ukrainian analysts see this as a move to prepare for an expansion of hostilities into Europe.
— MAKS 26
In addition, the Border Service Directorate for St. Petersburg and the Leningrad Region announced that from September 16 to September 26, 2026, there would be a restriction on access to the border of the Slantsevsky and Kingiseppsky districts near the Estonian border.
“These measures aim to prevent violations regarding border regulations, migration laws, and the protection of aquatic biological resources,” the directorate claimed, according to Russian regional officials.
The new rules prohibit people from being on the shorelines or in small vessels along a portion of the Narva River and from hunting or carrying firearms in the border area. In addition, they forbid the “presence and movement of individuals and vehicles during hours of darkness outside of populated areas within the five-kilometer strip of territory along the state border in the Kingiseppsky and Slantsevsky districts.”
Obviously, the stated reasoning behind this was taken with great skepticism from neighboring Baltic NATO countries who are already on edge.
Russia's FSB imposes a nighttime curfew along the Estonian border near Narva, banning people and vehicles outside towns and villages within 5 km of the border in the Slantsy and Kingisepp districts from Sept 16–26 pic.twitter.com/8Ez8AvMXFy
— Faytuks Network (@FaytuksNetwork) September 20, 2026
Though Russia remains bogged down in its war on Ukraine and is suffering heavy losses of personnel and equipment, some European intelligence officials suggest Vladimir Putin could still carry out a small-scale invasion of NATO territory.
“It’s possible,” Michal Koudelka, the head of the Czech Republic’s BIS security service, told The Guardian about a potential Russian thrust into NATO. “It could involve a limited incursion, false-flag provocations, a massive influence campaign,” he told the publication, adding that this scenario could play out in a matter of “months, not years.”
While Russia has been carrying out a range of hybrid actions against Europe for years, including cyberattacks, drone incursions and sabotage, last month’s foiled attack on Germany’s Leipzig-Halle airport is seen in European intelligence circles as an inflection point.
As we previously reported, a drone discovered inside the secured area of Leipzig/Halle Airport during the night of August 4-5, was carrying approximately 1.3 pounds of explosives. It was found close to a Ukrainian-operated Antonov An-124 heavy cargo aircraft used to transport weapons to Ukraine. German authorities blamed Russia for that incident.
“To have an armed UAV drone sent into a busy airport in the middle of Europe … If you have attacks that could result in losses of life or losses of very critical infrastructure that have a huge implication for society, I think that is a gamechanger,” Thomas Nilsson, the head of Sweden’s military intelligence and security service, told The Guardian.
It is unknown at this point whether Putin will decide to expand his hybrid actions against Europe to a more traditional conflict. However, as the attacks increase, officials across the continent are committing greater resources and planning to be prepared should that happen.
At the same time, the heat is only being turned up on Moscow as Ukraine accelerates its long range attacks. Now it has a whole new weapon, one that has been long in the works, to reach into Russian territory with while bypassing most air defenses.
Zelensky has officially unveiled the FP-7 Pelican ballistic missile and said it was used in the attack on Moscow. This is a monumental advance for Ukraine that has lacked modern ballistic missile capabilities since the war started. Still, Ukrainian media has raised doubts about whether the FP-7 — with an estimated operational range of 200-350 kilometers (124-217 miles) — can reach the Russian capital, which is about 450-500 kilometers (280-311 miles) from the Ukrainian border.
However, one expert suggested “that the ballistic weapon may have played an integral role within a coordinated, multi-axis combined strike,” according to the Kyiv Post.
Regardless, even if it can’t hit Moscow, it can hit plenty of other targets and it represents a major escalation in Ukraine’s weapons capabilities.
Ukrainian President Zelensky said that during an attack on Moscow, Ukraine used its Pelican FP-7 ballistic missile for the first time. pic.twitter.com/KqM9bqk9ur
— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) September 20, 2026
There is no avoiding the reality that the security situation in Europe is deteriorating, where exactly that leads is unclear apparently to everyone at the moment.
UPDATE: 7:04 PM Eastern –
Airspace restrictions have been imposed over Vilnius Airport due to a suspected “hybrid attack” from Belarus after the detection of what is suspected to be balloons in Lithuanian airspace, airport officials announced.
The restrictions were imposed from 11:45 p.m. local time on September 21 to 02:45 a.m. on September 22, the airport announced on its Facebook page.
“Aircraft arrivals are temporarily suspended; however, departures are permitted from 12:55 a.m. subject to all safety requirements,” the airport explained. “These restrictions were introduced due to a hybrid attack by Belarus against Lithuania, civil aviation, and the public, involving the detection of navigational markers—characteristic of balloons—in areas posing risks to aviation.”
Belarus launched balloons toward the Vilnius Airport area, in what Lithuanian authorities are describing as a hybrid attack. pic.twitter.com/U7Etg3xn5o
— GMI (@Global_Mil_Info) September 21, 2026
Contact the author: howard@twz.com
The post Alarm Bells Ring Across Europe As Security Situation With Russia Deteriorates At Accelerating Pace appeared first on TWZ.
by Fabio Giuseppe Carlo Carisio
UPDATE ON OCTOBER, 2, 2026
«A mysterious breakup of a decades-old American spy satellite has sent debris hurtling through low-Earth orbit, with the U.S. Space Force now tracking the fragments for potential threats to other spacecraft, according to Space-Track» the famous American Journalist Tyler Durden has reported yesterday under the title “Mystery Shrouds Destruction Of US Spy Satellite” relaunching a huge fake news….
On September 21st, we published an investigation to clear up the mystery surrounding the alleged explosion of the American spy satellite USA-32 (NORAD 19460).
We did so by publishing orbital radar tracking data showing the satellite was still fully operational, noting that the shedding of minor debris is a normal occurrence for a satellite.
Since our site is banned by Google and many other mainstream outlets, the story did not receive the coverage it deserved; now, the self-styled investigative journalist Tyler Durden is reviving the report—just as many American and Italian sites have done—basing it solely on a false confirmation from Google Gemini AI derived from completely unverified social media posts.
For this reason, we deem it necessary to publish another video from a satellite-tracking site, ALLMYSAT.COM; it shows the satellite—which various articles claimed had exploded—passing over the UK and Spain, and finally reaching Morocco, starting at 16:34 (Italian time, GMT+2) today.
The shedding of debris, as highlighted in our investigation below, is a fairly routine occurrence for a satellite.
However, it is a very different matter from an explosion. We regret that, nearly ten days after our detailed investigation, journalist Tyler Durden has also shown himself to be a believer in fake news…
NB The primary source of the news was not the Spake.Tracker site cited by Durden but—as we highlighted in our investigation—the experimental TRACSS site affiliated with the US Department of Commerce; the report on the explosion we documented via screenshots can no longer be found there, as the inevitable cover-up of a blatant lie has taken place.
ARTICLE POSTED ON SEPTEMBER, 21. 2026
The explosion of the largest American spy satellite in space ought to be breaking news for many international newspapers, even in this era of censorship regarding events involving Western governments—and the US government in particular.
Instead, news of the fragmentation of USA-32 has been circulating on various social media platforms for days, bouncing from one to another, without any official confirmation…
True to our practice, we launched an in-depth investigation to verify the facts and uncovered a bafflingly contradictory mystery…
The TRACSS website—a pilot project of the Office of US Department of Commerce—issued a “Break-Up Notification” stating the following:
“U.S. Space Forces–Space (S4S) confirms the fragmentation of USA 32 (#19460) in LEO on 13 Sep 2026 (JDay 256) at approximately 2113 UTC. All tracked debris are being incorporated into routine conjunction assessment screenings to support spaceflight safety. No immediate threats have been identified; further analysis is ongoing.”
USA 32 (NORAD 19460) is a satellite launched Sep 5, 1988 by NRO of US. It operates in LEO, CIRCULAR, POLAR orbit with a mass of 1450.00 kg. The NRO – National Reconnaissance Office makes the world a better, safer, stronger place and ensures America remains the undisputed leader in space.
However, the Orbital Radar website, which provides real-time satellite positioning, continues to track the movements of USA-32 (#19460), showing it as active.
While the details mention occasional debris shedding, there is no reference to an explosion or a resulting cessation of operations.
«USA 32 orbits at an average altitude of 777 km in the mid-LEO band, where atmospheric drag is minimal but radiation exposure remains manageable. Objects at this altitude persist for decades to centuries, making debris mitigation critical» we can read in the website among many other information.
Who is right? It is almost impossible to say with absolute certainty, for now…
But let’s try to unravel the mystery by delving into every detail.
In the last few hours, even Italian website “Sorvegliati Speciali” aka “Space Sentinels”—a project launched in Italy in 2019 by INAF (National Institute for Astrophysics) using PNRR funding—reported the story.
«”Space Sentinel” (Sorvegliati Spaziali)—”Understanding Space to Protect the Planet”—is a public outreach project by the National Institute for Astrophysics (INAF) dedicated to Planetary Defense. This term encompasses the study of celestial events that could affect Earth’s environment—such as potential asteroid and comet impacts during close approaches, meteors, and meteorite impacts—as well as the necessary prevention or mitigation measures» explained the website.
We can read in this website (obviously in Italian…)
USA 32, launched in 1988 to intercept Soviet radar signals, has generated a cloud of debris in a highly congested region of Earth’s orbit. The cause remains unknown. This incident highlights the importance of “passivating” satellites at the end of their operational lives.
An aging U.S. spy satellite broke apart after spending 38 years in orbit around Earth. U.S. Space Forces–Space confirmed that the event involved USA 32—identified as object number 19460 in the NORAD catalog, the system used to track artificial objects in orbit under the North American Aerospace Defense Command. The breakup occurred on September 13, 2026, at approximately 21:13 UTC (23:13 Italian time).
The fragmentation took place in low Earth orbit, at an altitude of about 775 kilometers. The identified fragments are being progressively added to the systems used to assess potential close encounters with operational satellites. A definitive fragment count has not yet been released, and the cause of the event remains unknown.
They essentially republished the conttents of a Reddit post that is circulating globally and has even been validated by Google’s AI—confirming that Artificial Intelligence is not yet intelligent enough to perform fact-checking…
SpaceWeather.com is cited as the source of the news, yet no information regarding the incident appears on that site. Other sites, however, cite Space-Track.org, which in turn points to TRACSS.
We can read in this alleged US Governement project:
NOAA’s Office of Space Commerce (OSC) is developing the Traffic Coordination System for Space (TraCSS) to provide basic space situational awareness (SSA) data and services to civil and private space operators in support of spaceflight safety.
And more:
TraCSS is being developed to implement President Trump’s direction in Space Policy Directive 3 for the Department of Commerce to provide space operators with space traffic safety data and services.
But at the top of the site, right before the breaking news about the exploded American satellite, it reads:
TraCSS is currently in a pilot phase. Data and products are intended to be used for evaluation purposes only at this time.
The suspicion is that this is actually an experiment to monitor media reactions to the site.
Consequently, one might be led to believe that Orbital Radar is more reliable and that USA-32 never exploded.
However, for the sake of completeness, we include below a video on the topic and a link to an article published on *VT UnCensored Foreign Policy* by a space and science fiction enthusiast.
Fabio Giuseppe Carlo Carisio – founder and director of Gospa News
VIDEO SOURCE: 7even via social YouTube
On September 13, the U.S. Space Force detected the unexpected breakup of USA-32, a nearly 38-year-old satellite orbiting about 775 kilometers above Earth. Originally launched in 1988 for a highly classified Cold War mission, USA-32 was designed to monitor Soviet radar systems and remained largely hidden from public view for decades.
ALL SOURCES
Login