Trita Parsi is the co-founder and Executive Vice President of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft. Follow his excellent Substack: https://tritaparsi.substack.com/
President Donald Trump warned Thursday that the United States may launch further strikes against Iran, as Washington and Israel prepare for a possible new offensive following the November midterm elections.
La Armada de EEUU ofrece protección aérea y naval a una flota de más de 400 'petroleros fantasma' que cruzan el Estrecho de Ormuz de noche y con todos sus sistemas de identificación apagados Leer
La Armada de EEUU ofrece protección aérea y naval a una flota de más de 400 'petroleros fantasma' que cruzan el Estrecho de Ormuz de noche y con todos sus sistemas de identificación apagados
Iran is rebuilding Eagle 44, a hardened underground airbase carved into the side of a mountain that can shelter fighter aircraft, drones, and potentially cruise and ballistic missiles, despite the remote facility absorbing at least three rounds of airstrikes this year. High-resolution satellite imagery captured by Planet Labs in late September and reviewed by TWZ shows a new section of taxiway completed, several support buildings still destroyed or damaged, wrecked equipment cleared off the pavement, and obstacles that were placed to obstruct the runway now removed. Construction is ongoing at a time when the Pentagon and Trump administration maintain there is little remaining of the Iranian air force for such a facility to protect.
Eagle 44, also called ‘Oghab 44’ after the 44th anniversary of the 1979 revolution, was unveiled by Iranian state media in February 2023 when senior officials visited what was described as the country’s newest underground airbase. Islamic Republic of Iran Air Force (IRIAF) F-4D/E Phantom IIs, armed with AGM-65 Maverick air-to-ground missiles, laser and electro-optically guided bombs, unguided ‘dumb’ bombs, as well as domestically produced anti-ship missiles, were shown using the facility in the footage. The IRIAF had roughly 60 examples in service at the time, its most numerous combat jet by some margin, though how many remain today, and are actually operational, is unknown. In addition to the Phantoms, one-way attack drones were also seen in the background.
F-4 Phantom at Eagle 44. Photo: Iranian state media Another view of an F-4 Phantom at Eagle 44. Photo: Iranian state media
The IRIAF, rather than the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Aerospace Force, operates the base, which is located in Hormozgan province and sits in the foothills of the Zagros Mountains, approximately 100 miles northwest of the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian state media described it as “one of the army’s most important air force bases, with fighters equipped with long-range cruise missiles and built in the depths of the Earth.” Then-Chief of Staff of the Armed Forces Maj. Gen. Mohammad Bagheri, who was present at the unveiling, warned that “any attack on Iran from our enemies, including Israel, will see a response from our many air force bases including Eagle 44.” He was eliminated in the opening strikes of the Twelve-Day War, which Israel dubbed Operation Rising Lion, in June 2025.
Location of Eagle 44 airbase in southern Iran. Photo: Google Earth
Work on the cavernous underground tunnel complex began in 2013. Construction of a 2.7-mile main runway, situated on the northern side of the base on a valley floor below the mountain range, started roughly eight years later. Two taxiways run through a smaller ridge connecting the runway to four entrances to the primary tunnel complex, where the jets and weapons are stored, although only one taxiway is currently operational.
The promotional video released in 2023 revealed at least one internal blast door, as well as branches from the main tunnel to revetment areas to park fighters and drones. A support compound of several buildings is on the west side of the base, next to the unfinished taxiway. The purpose of each structure is unclear, but a functioning airbase requires maintenance and repair facilities, crew quarters, reserves of fuel and munitions, security and force protection assets, and infrastructure to coordinate air traffic control and command and control functions.
Video released by Iranian state media in February 2023 reportedly showing the inside of the tunnel complex at Eagle 44.
The United States kicked off Operation Epic Fury alongside Israel on February 28, launching a massive wave of strikes against Iran from the west and south. Eagle 44 is located within striking distance of the munitions carried by air wings embarked on U.S. Navy aircraft carriers operating in the northern Arabian Sea and missiles fired by the guided-missile destroyers that escort them, as well as Air Force tactical and strategicaircraft and Army assets in the region. However, low-resolution images reviewed by TWZ through March 16 indicated that while the base was targeted, little damage was visible.
HIMARS fired during OEF. CENTCOM photo B-1B fuels for OEF mission. USAF photo Super Hornets launch during OEF. Navy photo Guided-missile destroyer USS Spruance fires a Tomahawk Land Attack Missile (TLAM) in support of Operation Epic Fury (OEF). U.S. Navy photo
As the U.S. and Israel continued the relentless air campaign over the next several weeks, the base was targeted again at the end of March, with greater effect, according to a report from The New York Times. High-resolution images the paper reviewed revealed impact craters on the taxiways near the tunnel entrances, one building leveled, and small mounds placed along the runway, presumably to prevent enemy aircraft from landing. Battle damage assessments suggested the strikes were intended to cut the underground caverns off from the runway, trapping whatever was inside and preventing takeoff. The report did not state whether U.S. or Israeli aircraft carried out the attack, and Israeli officials declined to comment. However, the U.S. was primarily responsible for pressuring Iran’s southern flank, while the Israelis attacked the western front.
After the fragile April ceasefire collapsed and the U.S. imposed a second blockade, U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM), based out of MacDill Air Force Base in Tampa, Florida, and responsible for executing day-to-day operations of the war, launched multiple strikes across Iran on July 15, and Eagle 44 was hit for at least a third time. An analysis published by Soar Atlas, a satellite imagery provider, identified four aimpoints on July 16, with cratered taxiways and damage to additional infrastructure. According to that analysis, the structures targeted were related to the base’s construction unit, but TWZ has not independently verified this claim. The Pentagon and CENTCOM have not specifically named Eagle 44 in any press briefing or release, and Iran has not acknowledged the base was struck.
United States Navy forces on station in mid-July 2026 when the second blockade began and strikes resumed. TWZ/IAN ELLIS-JONES
The Planet Labs satellite imagery from September 29, obtained exclusively by TWZ, indicates that Iran began reconstruction after the July attacks and that the effort is ongoing.
The main runway, previously blocked by obstacles meant to deter and prevent unauthorized aircraft from landing, is now clear. On the western taxiway (marked in red below), a new section leading into the ridge ‘pass-through’ is complete, with its finished upper cement-concrete layer visible. On the other side of the pass, construction of the next segment is underway, with a subgrade layer of stabilized, compacted dirt laid down but not yet paved (orange). Farther south, in front of the western tunnel entrances, impact craters (blue) are still visible. When finished, the second taxiway will provide a direct link between the western hangars and the runway, allowing additional aircraft to move freely without sharing a single taxiway, a major bottleneck for higher operational tempos and more complex sortie launches and recoveries. A second functional taxiway and tunnel would also provide critical redundancy if the other is hit.
On the primary eastern taxiway, two dark streaks (green) that appeared following the strikes in July run off the edge of the pavement, likely debris left by equipment that was struck and removed. Notably, the streak marks match the width of the wreckage, suggesting it was bulldozed or pushed off the taxiway to reopen it. There is no sign of the equipment being recovered, only that it was cleared out of the way.
In the main support compound (yellow) next to the western taxiway, two buildings are clearly destroyed and a third is damaged. They have not been rebuilt yet, which is consistent with previous reporting from The Times and Soar Atlas that the attacks degraded construction capabilities, and suggests the regime may be focused on completing and repairing the taxiways rather than the installations.
The four entrances to the main tunnel complex (white), arranged in two pairs less than half a mile apart at the end of each taxiway on the southern part of the base, appear to be intact, although the angle makes it unclear whether they are open or sealed. What’s inside the mountain, and how many fighters remain in Iran’s inventory, is unknown. Regardless of the status of the fighter fleet, as we noted earlier, the base can also store drones and could be packed with cruise or ballistic missiles.
The U.S. and Israel have a range of bunker buster bombs that could be used in an attempt to collapse the tunnel entrances, a major choke point for any underground weapons storage site. While not destroying what is being held within, doing so would block anything inside from leaving — and being used — for a period of time. Additionally, the pass-through tunnels make for easy targets, and hitting them would keep fixed-wing aircraft from reaching the runway. No impact points on the mountain itself or damage to the portals inside is apparent, but they could have been sealed and hit farther in, which may not be highly visible via satellite imagery. Reaching the main storage caverns themselves would likely be far harder. Larger bunker busters in the U.S. inventory include the GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP) guided munition, which could be capable of reaching deeper into the main site, but these are very limited in number and can only be delivered by the Air Force’s B-2A Spirit stealth bombers. It’s highly unlikely the U.S. would expend such resources on a site like this over many others of higher strategic importance.
Eagle 44 is not the only base that Iran is fixing during the lull in hostilities. By the end of May, Iran had cleared 50 of 69 tunnel entrances struck at 18 underground facilities, including some “missile cities,” according to a report by CNN− and that number is likely higher now. Planet Labs, Airbus, and Vantor imagery reviewed by The Wall Street Journal in July showed rebuilt entrances near Kangavar, fresh excavation at Dezful, and repairs near Kermanshah. “They have very impressive industrialization and reconstruction capabilities,” Israeli Brig. Gen. Ran Kochav told the paper. “They refilled their stockpiles,” he added.
A Western official toldBloomberg earlier this month that Iran “remains well-stocked with ballistic missiles and some anti-ship missiles, and can quickly add more,” and a U.S. official posited in May that “the Iranians have exceeded all timelines the IC [Intelligence Community] had for reconstitution.” Both assessments are at odds with what the White House and Pentagon have repeatedly claimed. Secretary Pete Hegseth stated in April that Iran’s air force was “wiped out” and its missile program was “functionally destroyed; launchers, production facilities, and existing stockpiles depleted and decimated,” while acknowledging a week later that the regime was “digging out” launchers, missiles, and bombed facilities but had “no ability to replenish offensive or defensive capabilities.” In May, CENTCOM Commander Adm. Brad Cooper told Congress, “Before Operation Epic Fury, the Iranian Air Force flew between 30 and 100 sorties each day; today that number is zero.” More recently, at a campaign rally in Kansas on Monday, U.S. President Donald Trump said, “They have no air force… their 229 beautiful fighter jets are now scattered all over the runways, the beautiful runways of the Islamic Republic of Iran.”
Video released by Iranian state media in May 2022 showing a different underground missile and drone complex.
At the very least, strikes on Eagle 44 cratered the taxiways and degraded support infrastructure, which likely put at least some of whatever airpower is stored there, if any, out of action. But even after enduring months of war and extreme economic pressure due to the ongoing U.S. blockade and sanctions, as well as dealing with damage across the country, Tehran continues to prioritize construction on the remote base. That fact alone could put it back on the target list if the U.S. and Israel launch another operation. But above all else, it points to how important this facility is to the regime, for whatever reason.
Iran is ready to face any new aggression and will take the war to new levels, Iran claimed on Wednesday, October 21, after reports indicated the resumption of joint US-Israeli strikes on the country’s nuclear sites and other targets is imminent.
Several reports appeared on Wednesday and Thursday pointing towards the end of an undeclared ceasefire since July and growing possibilities of fresh US-Israeli strikes on Iran.
AFPreported on Thursday, that the US has asked its embassy staff and their family members in Saudi Arabia and family members of the embassy staff in several other countries in the region to leave.
Drop Site News has reported on Thursday that the US was currently involved in large-scale preparations, including the deployment of new warships and around 10,000 additional sailors and marines in the region.
The US preparations are largely linked to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s attempts to push a fresh offensive against Iran, Drop Site claimed. It cited both the Iranian and US officials that the US-Israeli joint strikes against Iran may begin probably before the Tuesday Israeli elections.
Last week there were reports about Netanyahu pressing Trump to re-start the bombing of Iran, as it may boost his chances of winning the elections which he is reportedly trailing at the moment.
On Wednesday, Netanyahu again, without any evidence, alleged that Iran was developing nuclear weapons. He claimed he has directed the Israeli military and Mossad, its secret agency involved in various covert operations, to “topple the regime in Iran.”
An unnamed Iranian official also confirmed to Drop Site that the country has received an intelligence assessment about the resumption of joint US-Israeli bombing of the country’s strategic sites before Tuesday.
The Iranian official reportedly also claimed that the US may also carry out a “token” strike on Iran’s nuclear site such as the Pickaxe Mountain, to claim “victory.”
Though White House deputy Press Secretary Anna Kelly denied these reports, claiming there will be no fresh strikes at least before the Midterm elections, an unnamed official told Drop Site that US President Donald Trump has “backed off” from major combat operations against Iran at least seven times since July, claiming he could start the war anytime.
Trump’s vindictiveness may cause the resumption of the war
Recent statements by President Trump about Pickaxe Mountain and also about the failure of negotiations with Iran have fueled speculations about the imminent strikes.
On Wednesday, Trump told the press that the US is not negotiating with Iran and “something one way or the other” will happen “fairly soon.”
Reacting to the developments, Trita Parsi of the Quincy Institute, however, dismissed Israel’s centrality in these affairs, despite claiming similarities in circumstances between now and February, when the US launched an unprovoked war against Iran in collaboration with Israel.
Rather, he pointed out Trump’s “vindictiveness” as the main reason for the fresh overtures of war, claiming Trump blames Iran for “ruining his presidency” and the humiliation his Republican party may face in the upcoming Midterm elections.
Iran will respond with a “broader plan”
Iran has repeatedly claimed it was ready to face the US-Israeli aggression. The head of its Supreme National Security Council (SNSC) Mohsen Rezaei claimed on Wednesday that Iran will face the “next stage” of the war with a “broader plan” and respond in ways not seen before.
In the event of fresh aggressions, Iran will expand the war and target all kinds of US assets in the region including its communication cables, and AI data centers, Rezaei claimed in dialogue with Drop Site.
Rezaei also warned the regional countries to not participate in the US aggression in any way if they want to avoid Iranian retaliation, claiming “those governments should not assume they can participate in warfare against Iran without putting themselves at risk.”
At least seven vessels attacked for violating restrictions
Meanwhile, the naval wing of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) claimed on Thursday that it targeted four vessels in the northern Persian Gulf for violating its restrictions on “unauthorized routes.” The vessels caught fire and were burning, Press TVreported.
The IRGC also claimed three other vessels were hit by mines in the west of the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday night. It claimed these vessels were forced by the US, despite Iran’s warnings, to cross the Strait of Hormuz through the “unauthorized route.”
The number of vessels hit after trying to cross the Strait of Hormuz has increased many fold this week, despite the repeated claims made by the US about it being in full control over the waterway.
The US has also claimed that the shipment of oil through the Persian Gulf has returned to the pre-war level and that the Iranian blockade was ineffective.
However, Iran has repeatedly denied the US claims. On Thursday, the IRGC also warned that if the US continues to force more vessels through the Strait of Hormuz, it will be forced to carry out retaliatory strikes against its bases in the region.
Iran's state television reported that seven oil tankers either caught fire or were damaged by mines overnight Wednesday into Thursday after being targeted or striking naval mines in the Strait of Hormuz.
President Trump told reporters on Wednesday night that the US was “not negotiating” with Iran and that something would be happening “fairly soon,” one of his latest vague threats against the Islamic Republic. Trump made the comments at Joint Base Andrews, Maryland, after returning from a rally in South Carolina with former professional boxer Evander […]
The Islamic republic has long used billboards in Tehran to mock its opponents and hammer home its messaging, but this piece of performance propaganda is perhaps the most eccentric yet.
Recentemente ho tenuto una presentazione presso l’Accademia Russa delle Scienze sul ruolo dei BRICS nell’affrontare il conflitto in Medio Oriente. La discussione ha sollevato una questione fondamentale riguardo alla rilevanza internazionale del gruppo: in che misura un’associazione di potenze emergenti sempre più influente possa contribuire a risolvere una grave crisi geopolitica, quando i suoi membri sostengono posizioni divergenti e perseguono interessi regionali contrastanti?
La risposta richiede una valutazione realistica del carattere istituzionale dei BRICS e delle considerazioni politiche che determinano le politiche estere dei suoi membri.
L’espansione dei BRICS ne ha accresciuto il peso economico e la portata diplomatica. Ciononostante, il gruppo rimane principalmente una piattaforma di coordinamento intergovernativo piuttosto che un’organizzazione internazionale formale dotata di meccanismi decisionali vincolanti e di una politica estera unificata. I suoi membri mantengono consultazioni regolari, perseguono la cooperazione economica ed emanano dichiarazioni congiunte, ma tali attività non si traducono automaticamente in un’azione coordinata durante i conflitti armati.
Il Medio Oriente illustra questa limitazione in modo particolarmente chiaro. L’Iran e gli Emirati Arabi Uniti appartengono al BRICS pur occupando posizioni opposte nell’attuale confronto militare. Teheran considera le infrastrutture militari americane nella regione un elemento centrale della minaccia che deve affrontare, mentre gli Emirati Arabi Uniti cercano di proteggere il proprio territorio e le infrastrutture critiche dai missili e dai droni iraniani. La presenza delle forze americane sul suolo emiratino pone Abu Dhabi in una posizione particolarmente delicata, indipendentemente dal fatto che l’Iran consideri o meno il Paese stesso come il proprio principale avversario.
Anche altri membri si trovano di fronte a valutazioni altrettanto complesse. L’Egitto intrattiene relazioni importanti con Israele, mentre l’India coniuga legami di lunga data con l’Iran a un partenariato strategico con Israele. Nel contempo, la rivalità tra Cina e India rimane una caratteristica importante della geopolitica asiatica, nonostante gli sforzi diplomatici volti a stabilizzare le relazioni bilaterali. Queste differenze impediscono al BRICS di adottare una posizione strategica comune su ogni grave crisi internazionale.
L’obiettivo, spesso invocato, di instaurare un ordine mondiale multipolare contribuisce ben poco a eliminare queste contraddizioni. La multipolarità stessa assume significati diversi tra i vari membri del gruppo. Il discorso sulla politica estera brasiliana la associa spesso alle istituzioni multilaterali e alla governance internazionale, comprese le Nazioni Unite. Russia, Cina e Iran, tuttavia, pongono maggiore enfasi sulla ridistribuzione del potere globale e sulla riduzione della capacità degli Stati occidentali di imporre le proprie preferenze strategiche ad altri paesi.
Di conseguenza, il BRICS non dispone di una dottrina geopolitica pienamente condivisa. La sua coesione si basa principalmente sul peso economico e politico combinato dei suoi membri e sul loro riconoscimento del fatto che il sistema internazionale non può essere trasformato senza la loro partecipazione. Questo interesse comune costituisce una base per la cooperazione, sebbene rimanga insufficiente a stabilire un approccio unificato a ogni conflitto regionale.
Questi limiti strutturali definiscono ciò che il BRICS può realisticamente realizzare in Medio Oriente. Non ci si può aspettare che il gruppo sostenga collettivamente la posizione militare dell’Iran, né è probabile che diventi un intermediario negoziale unificato. Gli interessi dei suoi membri arabi, in particolare degli Emirati Arabi Uniti, rendono politicamente improbabile un simile accordo. Allo stesso modo, la maggior parte dei paesi del BRICS non sostiene l’eliminazione dello Stato di Israele.
Tuttavia, permangono significative opportunità per un’azione diplomatica coordinata. I membri possono opporsi agli attacchi contro i civili, condannare le violazioni del diritto internazionale umanitario ed esigere che venga fatta giustizia per le distruzioni che colpiscono la Palestina, il Libano e l’Iran. Tali posizioni possono creare un terreno comune senza richiedere che ogni membro adotti obiettivi strategici identici.
Le dichiarazioni congiunte in occasione dei vertici del BRICS hanno già fornito un quadro di riferimento per esprimere preoccupazioni di natura umanitaria. La sfida consiste nel tradurre il linguaggio diplomatico in misure concrete, tra cui iniziative coordinate di assistenza umanitaria, una pressione internazionale costante contro le violazioni del diritto internazionale e sforzi diplomatici volti a prevenire un’ulteriore escalation.
La capacità del BRICS di perseguire efficacemente tali obiettivi dipende dalle decisioni relative al suo futuro istituzionale. Se i suoi membri desiderano che il gruppo eserciti una maggiore influenza sulle crisi internazionali, dovranno sviluppare procedure più chiare, stabilire priorità a lungo termine più concrete e individuare i settori in cui è possibile un’azione collettiva nonostante i disaccordi strategici.
Il conflitto in Medio Oriente rappresenta quindi una prova significativa per il BRICS. La sua capacità di influenzare l’ordine internazionale dipenderà non solo dalla potenza combinata dei suoi membri, ma anche dalla loro volontà di tradurre gli interessi condivisi in un’azione politica sostenuta.
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