Abkhazian independence would have been a Western favorite show, if it was a vassal for their interests, or a launching pad against Russian targets. If that was the case, they would have recognized its independence, or even granted Teymuraz Tania the title of “Servant of the People”, and organized a campaign to elect him president. […]

Was in Ungarn derzeit passiert, ist nur schwer zu verstehen. Dort tobt ein Skandal wegen eines banalen Vorfalls aus dem Jahr 2024, bei dem der heutige ungarische Regierungschef Magyar in einem Nachtclub einem Gast, der ihn filmte, das Mobiltelefon entrissen und in die Donau geworfen hat. Das entsprechende Strafverfahren war bereits eingestellt, wurde nun aber […]

As its war on multipolarism expands, Washington is converting the Western economy to arms production, draining its client states, and eroding its own social foundations — repeating the terminal trajectory of the British Empire. For decades, the US has leveraged its many client states as extensions of its own military, economic, financial, and political power, […]

Imperialism, considered by public intellectuals to be a thing of the past, has been resurrected; this time, the actions of the American President Donald Trump clearly reflect that. Defined as the raw exercise of power in order to conquer territories and appropriate resources for the establishment of an empire, imperialism has had a long and […]

Ich berichte schon sehr lange darüber, wie die Staaten Europas vor allem im Ostseeraum einen Krieg gegen Russland zu provozieren versuchen. Eines der Instrumente dazu ist die sogenannte Joint Expeditionary Force (JEF), ein von Großbritannien gegründetes Militärbündnis, das die baltischen und skandinavischen Staaten umfasst und immer wieder provokante Manöver unmittelbar an der russischen Grenze durchführt. […]

On 4 October Brazil will hold an election which involves more than just the choice between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro. It is a struggle concerning sovereignty, democracy and Brazil’s position in a rapidly changing world, with Washington keeping a close watch. Brazil will vote on 4 October, in just a few days, in an election […]

Amidst a deep socio-economic crisis and acute political confrontation in the US, President Donald Trump is trying to turn around negative forecasts ahead of the congressional elections through populist measures and aggressive rhetoric, which only deepens the rift in American society and undermines the country’s standing on the world stage. Over the past few weeks, […]

The Trump-Xi summit did not mark a US-China rapprochement, but it demonstrates that sustained diplomacy and strategic guardrails are essential to prevent intensifying competition from becoming direct conflict. The recent summit between Chinese President Xi Jinping and US President Donald Trump in Washington has demonstrated a significant paradox in contemporary international politics: the two superpowers […]

In Russland gibt es seit 2022 das sogenannte „Internationale öffentliche Tribunal zu den Verbrechen ukrainischer Neonazis“, an dessen Gründung ich beteiligt war und bei dem ich bis heute, wenn auch derzeit passives, Mitglied bin. Das Tribunal ist eine zivilgesellschaftliche Initiative zur Dokumentierung von ukrainischen Kriegsverbrechen und kein Gericht, wie der Name vermuten lassen könnte. Am […]

Während der UN-Generalversammlung hat der deutsche Außenminister Wadephul um ein Treffen mit dem russischen Außenminister Lawrow gebeten und es wurde gewährt, aber wie schon nach dem Treffen von Lawrow mit seiner Vorgängerin Baerbock hat die russische Seite nicht verstanden, was der Sinn des Treffens war, denn Neues hatte Wadephul nicht zu sagen. Überhaupt hatte die […]

Trump’s speech at the 81st General Assembly shows that warmongering USA may accelerate in practice. Whether other nations respond appropriately is a separate matter. Trump’s Military Threat at the UNGA While the UN Charter, the document that established the United Nations (UN), prioritized the cultivation and maintenance of peace among nations, US president Donald Trump […]

Letzte Woche fand die alljährliche UN-Generalversammlung statt, bei der jeder Staat in einer kurzen Grundsatzrede seine wichtigsten Ansichten zur Außenpolitik darlegt. Für Russland hat das dieses Mal der russische Außenminister Lawrow getan, der in seiner Rede die Politik des Westens heftig kritisierte. Ich habe seine Rede übersetzt, weil es in Deutschland nicht viele Möglichkeiten gibt, […]

Not to be disheartened by adversity or elated by happiness—
that is the mark of a strong spirit and a mighty power.

Niccolò Machiavelli

 

Should we expect the future to be worse than before? As trivial as this might sound, it all depends on us. No matter how complex and confused, the international environment can be apprehended and adjusted, as well as managed. All the elements forming today’s global palette are obvious, and they existed before. Today, they have manifested themselves in a new quality (with greater intensity) and in a different sequence with everything happening all at once.

The accumulated experience must be treated as a guideline rather than a dogma, including negative experiences, which teach us what we should not do. The last three decades have been a case in point. There can be different ways of evaluating the intentions of those who shaped history in late 20^th century, but the results that are visible today demonstrate that this stage in the development of international relations cannot and should not be replicated.

Instead of crowning global political development, this era was marked by the post-WWII model falling into crisis. In itself, this is not a tragedy since no system has ever been nor will be set in stone. Even the most outstanding projects have a limited lifespan.

The expectation that the “end of history” would address all the challenges and lead us towards a brighter future for the so-called “last man” failed to materialise, which was to be expected.

If becoming the last man is not what people really want, they should realise that charting the future is not the apanage of neither natural forces, nor social development patterns, nor sophisticated robots, nor AI. It is in their hands. Taking responsibility for the future is not a slogan but a behavioural imperative. Over the course of history, humankind has invented so many effective ways of destroying itself ranging from physical annihilation to moral destruction. These are the fruits of progress too. We do not need a future that would be better than the past. We need a future that will not be worse. Overall, having a future is what matters the most.

Authors: Oleg Barabanov, Anton Bespalov, Timofei Bordachev, Fyodor Lukyanov, Andrey Sushentsov, Ivan Timofeev.

You can download the report here.

Valdai Discussion Club

On August 19, 2026, the United States national debt officially crossed the $40 trillion mark. The number has become so large that it risks becoming meaningless. That is precisely why it matters. Forty trillion dollars is no longer a projection or a warning about the future. It is the Treasury’s current balance-sheet reality. This is […]

In New York fand die UN-Generalversammlung statt und der deutsche Außenminister Wadephul hat bei der Gelegenheit überraschend um ein Treffen mit dem russischen Außenminister Lawrow gebeten. Lawrow hat das Treffen gewährt und damit haben zum ersten Mal seit Anfang 2022 wieder ein russischer und ein deutscher Außenminister miteinander gesprochen. Wadephul hat sich dabei jedoch in […]

by Owei Lakemfa The French, following its revolution in 1790, gave humanity the enduring slogan “Liberty, Equality, Fraternity.” They are ideals worth dying for; but the same French turned out to be some of the most bestial colonialists for whom human life meant nothing. The French colonialists were so vicious that famous African psychiatrist Franz […]

From Trump’s earlier push to acquire Greenland to the 2026 security agreement with Denmark and Greenland, Washington’s approach has shifted from territorial acquisition to strategic access — a shift that reflects a broader contest for control over the Arctic, supply chains and spheres of influence. Since his first term as the American President, Trump has […]

Torn between its Russian, Chinese, Iranian and North Korean issues, American foreign policy has nonetheless revealed, over the decades, a constant hierarchy: the Sino-American rivalry remains the major geopolitical issue that structures Washington’s Asian policy. With one month to go before the midterm elections, the American election campaign, despite being structured by deep partisan divides, […]

The U.S.-Canada relationship is entering a period of strategic change as economic tensions, U.S. pressure and Canada’s push for diversification challenge the foundations of their traditional partnership. From Closest Partners to Strategic Friction The Trump administration imposed 50% tariffs on Canadian goods, in response to which Ottawa has imposed retaliatory 15%- 50% tariffs on the […]

The persistence of current geopolitical alignments, the attention of Eastern actors to the region, the strengthening of Sanaa’s position in the Red Sea, and the expansion of regional opposition to the UAE’s role will diminish Abu Dhabi’s role in the region. UAE approach For the past ten years, the Southern Red Sea has been a […]