❌

Reading view

↗️

The Baltic Fuse: How Europe Is Building the Infrastructure for War With Russia

✇South Front
By: Anonymous834

Click to see the full-size image

Europe is shortening the time it takes to wage a major war. Military transport approvals are meant to take hours rather than days, intelligence to feed more quickly into strike decisions, and a new generation of missiles to bring targets deep inside Russia within reach. Behind the forward garrisons, Europe is building transport networks, reserves, and ammunition production capacity. Taken together, these measures point beyond deterrence to practical preparations for waging war against Russia, including operations deep inside its territory.

The dates 2027, 2028, and 2030 in European rearmament programs can easily suggest that there is still time. But they mark a schedule for building military capabilities, not a guaranteed period of peace. The central question for the coming months is not whether armies will finish rearming in time, but whether a clash can be avoided before they do.

Estonia: A Narrow Front, a Deep Strike

Estonia offers a clear picture of the opening phase this system is being built to fight. The country’s military budget rose 42% in 2026 to €2.4 billion, or 5.4% of gross domestic product. Arms procurement accounts for €1.27 billion – more than half the total. Meanwhile, the headquarters and elements of the 1st Infantry Brigade are moving from Tapa to Jõhvi, roughly 50 kilometers from the Russian border.

A €20.5 million base is under construction in Narva, with €19 million coming from the European Union. Completion is scheduled for summer 2028. Its permanent garrison will number around 200, but it will accommodate up to 1,000 troops in a crisis. The gap between those figures reveals a base designed for rapid expansion. A small garrison is being equipped to receive reinforcements quickly, right on the border.

Holding that ground requires more than barracks. Procurement programs call for nine American HIMARS and nine South Korean Chunmoo multiple-launch rocket systems, both capable of firing ballistic missiles. The relevant munitions have stated ranges of up to 300 and 290 kilometers, respectively. The new concept combines holding the border with deep strikes from the first day of an invasion.

The scale of the response could far exceed that of the opening clash. A battle for a border town could lead to strikes on targets hundreds of kilometers away. Tallinn wants to deny its opponent the option of fighting a small war by preparing to expand its geographical scope.

This also changes what allied assistance means. Allied planning must account not only for how long a small army can hold out until reinforcements arrive, but also for how far the fighting may spread before they reach the front. A missile can be launched before a major formation completes its deployment. Allies may arrive to find that the conflict has already widened.

In such a situation, Estonia and the other Baltic states could serve not only as defensive positions but also as staging grounds for attacks on Russian territory. For Moscow, the issue is no longer simply the size of Estonian units, but the depth of the strikes they envisage. Tallinn, in turn, faces the question of who will sustain its forward forces if the first battles fail to decide the outcome. Sustaining such a war would require support from beyond Estonia. One national budget and a handful of batteries cannot carry that burden.

Click to see the full-size image

Germany: An Industrial Base Behind the Garrison

On October 5, Martin Jäger, head of Germany’s Federal Intelligence Service, told the Bundestag: “The point of no return has been passed in the war with Ukraine, and NATO is considering a scenario involving a limited Russian military clash with the Baltic states.” He linked the more immediate danger to limited Russian action in the Baltics that could test the allies’ response. He said intelligence had seen no signs of preparations for a major attack on NATO. The discussion therefore concerns not only a major war after rearmament is complete, but a smaller confrontation capable of triggering an allied response.

In the Baltic scenario, Berlin is publicly discussing the risk of a clash while its forward force is still taking shape. The brigade’s readiness date is not the date on which the threat begins.

In Lithuania, Germany is building a permanent heavy brigade as one element of that support. Full readiness is scheduled for the end of 2027, with 4,800 military personnel and 200 civilian employees. Its core consists of the 122nd Panzergrenadier Battalion, the 203rd Tank Battalion, and a multinational battle group. Until the formation is complete, the Germany-based 37th Brigade is to provide support.

The forward formation is thus tied to forces farther inside Europe. Civilian infrastructure underscores the permanence of the deployment. A school for the children of Bundeswehr personnel opened in Vilnius in September 2025. Units are not simply moving in – families are settling down. A political commitment acquires a permanent address, and the safety of German personnel becomes part of any future crisis in the host country.

Münster, October 1, 2026. Rutte describes a headquarters capable of commanding 50,000 troops and responsible for NATO forces in Estonia and Latvia. Behind the talk of forward battalions lies corps-level command capacity

But a permanent garrison needs a steady supply of ammunition. Rheinmetall’s new plant in Unterlüß is scheduled to reach an annual output of 350,000 artillery shells in that same year, 2027. The nearly €500 million facility was built in 15 months. Across its entire production network, including overseas sites, the company is targeting roughly 1.5 million shells a year from 2027.

The brigade answers the question of who will enter the fight. The factories answer how to keep fighting once stockpiles run down. The 2027 target is for strengthening this system, not creating it from scratch. Reaching the factory’s planned capacity determines future supply volumes, but it does not set a date before which a clash is impossible. Initial stocks sustain the opening phase of combat. Regular deliveries determine whether its intensity can be maintained.

Between the factory and the front lies the transport network. Europe’s military mobility proposal calls for cross-border transport permits to be processed within three working days, with an emergency procedure taking no more than six hours. A proposed €17 billion would fund the relevant infrastructure under the 2028–2034 budget. For Germany, a transit country, that means bridges, railways, and the capacity of routes leading east.

On October 7, European Defense Commissioner Andrius Kubilius called for this work to accelerate, saying Europe was not yet able to deter Russia. Unlike an exercise, infrastructure upgrades remain after the columns return to barracks. A stronger bridge and a faster permit procedure create a lasting ability to concentrate forces.

A border battle thus gains industrial and logistical depth. But sustaining one’s own forward forces is only half the military equation. The other half is disrupting opposing forces’ supply and command systems. That requires more than additional railcars loaded with shells. It requires weapons with much greater reach.

Britain: A European Deep-Strike Arsenal

London is driving precisely this part of Europe’s preparations. On July 8, 2026, it announced an initiative bringing together roughly a dozen partners to invest more than $50 billion in long-range strike capabilities over ten years. The stated range bracket runs from 300 to more than 2,000 kilometers. Britain’s own commitment within the initiative is £3 billion by 2030.

The British-German Deep Precision Strike program envisages stealthy and hypersonic weapons with ranges exceeding 2,000 kilometers, initially focused on ground launch. Britain is investing £770 million over four years, with entry into service expected in the 2030s. Another £1.4 billion over four years is earmarked for Stratus, a program with France and Italy covering strikes against high-value targets and ships, as well as the suppression of air defenses.

Britain’s participation in PrSM (Precision Strike Missile), a precision-guided ballistic missile program with a stated range of up to 500 kilometers, adds another layer. The emerging capabilities span several range bands, from around 300 kilometers for the Estonian systems through 500 for PrSM to more than 2,000 for the British-German development. Although the programs are at different stages, they share a clear direction. Weapons for fighting at the border are being supplemented with weapons for striking deep behind it.

The missiles of the next decade show how far these strike capabilities are intended to expand. But the next crisis will unfold with whatever weapons are available when it begins. A 2,000-kilometer range is not a prerequisite for a clash in the Baltics. It changes the potential scale of the war, not the earliest date on which it can break out.

Click to see the full-size image

Turning national purchases into a combined capability requires a common framework for employing them. In July 2025, General Christopher Donahue outlined elements of eastern-flank planning built around compatible launchers, fire control, and data sharing. He cited Kaliningrad as an example of military capabilities that could be neutralized by ground-based means in an exceptionally short time: “We have already planned this. We have already developed this.”

The discussion also included cloud-based data sharing and Palantir’s Maven Smart System, purchased by NATO to analyze information and support command decisions. The aim is to turn disparate reports into a common picture more quickly. When several armies use compatible command systems, their arsenals gain additional value. Range puts the target within reach, while data sharing allows missions to be coordinated.

But the deeper the planned strikes, the harder it becomes to separate support for a border battle from an expansion of the war. To the attacking side, a target may be part of the other side’s military supply system. To the other side, hitting it may signal that the conflict has crossed a new threshold. The use of conventional weapons thus leaves unresolved how to deter a response that would overturn the assumption of a limited clash.

France: The Nuclear Limit of Europe’s Calculations

This is where France’s nuclear deterrent enters the European picture. On October 6, Le Vigilant conducted an acceptance firing of an M51.3 ballistic missile following its refit. The missile carried no nuclear warhead. In service since October 2025, the variant carries new TNO-2 warheads. The French Defense Ministry cites improvements in range, accuracy, and the ability to penetrate missile defenses.

Brittany, October 6, 2026. Le Vigilant launches an M51.3 without a nuclear warhead

Macron stated the political message bluntly: “To be free, you must be feared. And to be feared, you must be strong.” France’s modernization adds a nuclear dimension to Europe’s conventional military buildup.

That European dimension is taking a more concrete form. On March 2, 2026, Macron outlined an “advanced deterrence” framework allowing partners to participate in French nuclear exercises and opening the possibility of temporary deployments of strategic forces on allied territory. Germany, Poland and Sweden were among the countries joining the dialogue. But the authority to use nuclear weapons – and to define the vital interests they protect – remains exclusively French. In the Baltic scenario, closer cooperation does not establish an automatic French nuclear response to a border clash. It leaves the decisive threshold in Paris, deliberately undefined.

After the First Clash

Taken together, these national programs suggest that the West is preparing not merely to deter Russia, but to build the capacity for offensive operations against it. In this reading, forward deployments, industrial expansion and deep-strike weapons are interconnected preparations for a war that could extend into Russian territory. They do not, by themselves, establish a single operational plan or prove a decision to initiate hostilities. Conventional forces are meant to make an opposing military operation prohibitively costly, while nuclear forces are meant to deter the most extreme escalation. The weakness is that neither side gets to decide how much damage the other will tolerate.

That problem is especially acute around Kaliningrad, where plans to suppress military infrastructure sit alongside the question of the region’s links to the rest of Russia. If actions during a crisis are perceived as an attempt to cut the region off by force, the argument will no longer be about intentions announced at a press conference. It will be about consequences the other side believes it must stop immediately.

The danger in the coming months lies in the gap between limited intent and an unrestricted response. Berlin is discussing localized action in the Baltics. Tallinn is preparing for deep strikes from day one, while foreign garrisons tie a border battle to allied involvement. Each side may consider its own move limited. Neither can count on the other side accepting its definition of what is permissible.

European capitals therefore need to define where military action would stop after the first clash, whether at the border or after strikes on depots, airfields or targets in Kaliningrad. The programs examined here spell out how to build military power, but offer no mechanism for ending the fighting. Missile range is not strategic foresight. Confidence that escalation can be controlled could turn a system of deterrence into a mechanism for widening the war well before 2030.

MORE ON THE TOPIC:

The post The Baltic Fuse: How Europe Is Building the Infrastructure for War With Russia appeared first on South Front.

  •  
  • ↗️
↗️

Ukranian Defenses Crack in Zaporozhye

✇South Front
By: Anonymous1199

File image.

In the Sumy direction, Russian assault groups of the “North” grouping are pressing Ukrainian defenses in the forest tract north of Sumy, conducting small-arms fighting near Khoten and advancing through tree lines near Korenok. In the Kharkiv direction, Russian units are increasing the pace of their advance in the area of the encirclement in the northeast of the region; they have taken Shirokoye and are fighting for Komissarovo, Lukashovo and Lobanovka. In the Slavyansk direction, Ukrainian units are attempting to clear the right bank of the Zherebets, infiltrating the northern part of Zarechnoye and attacking west of it, while Russian troops hold Zarechnoye and Yampol. In the Zaporozhye direction, Russian troops are delivering FAB strikes against temporary deployment points in Preobrazhenka and Orekhov, have overcome a water obstacle and an anti-tank ditch on the Voskresenka–Barvinovka–Lyubitskoye line, and in the zone of the “Dnepr” grouping are advancing on a broad front near Primorskoye, Stepnogorsk and Yurkovka. The leader of the party “Debout la France,” Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, called Europe’s rejection of Russian gas economic and social suicide against the background of a 42.4% price rise since the beginning of 2026.

Sumy direction  

Heavy positional fighting is under way on all sectors of the front. Assault groups of Russian units are pressing Ukrainian defenses in the forest tract north of Sumy and destroying positions with artillery and heavy flamethrower systems. The Ukrainian side has taken no active actions and has concentrated on holding the positions it occupies.

The situation around Kiyanitsa is extremely complicated: the Ukrainian side has accumulated a huge quantity of resources in the forest zones, and it is premature to speak of full control on this sector. Moreover, Ukrainian units are attacking near Yablonovka and Varachino, attempting to regain positions and making use of the last opportunity before the muddy season to take cover in the forests.

In the Sumy district, assault groups of Russian units are conducting small-arms fighting near Khoten. In Shostka district, assault groups continue to advance through tree lines near Korenok.  

Kharkiv direction  

Assault units of the “North” grouping are increasing the pace of their advance in the area of the encirclement of Ukrainian forces in the northeast of Kharkiv region. Ukrainian units are attempting to break the encirclement from the outside and are employing armor.

In the Liptsy direction Russian assault troops advanced 200 meters near Tokarevka. In the Volchansk and Veliky Burluk directions Russian units advanced deeper into the cauldron on more than 20 sectors of the front. Overall progress reached approximately 1,000 meters.

The Ukrainian side made two attempts to break the encirclement from the outside with two assault groups of the 475th Separate Assault Regiment on two “Kazak” armored fighting vehicles from the area of Veliky Burluk. As a result of comprehensive fire strikes the attempt was thwarted; one armored vehicle was destroyed and the second damaged.

The encirclement in the east of the Burluk direction is gradually tightening. Ukrainian formations are unable to force a reliable corridor for themselves, while Russian troops are systematically destroying disorganized units. Newly available objective-control footage confirms the capture of Shirokoye. Forward assault groups are already pressing Ukrainian forces on the territory of Komissarovo. Fighting for the village continues, and a focal Ukrainian presence still remains in the tree lines to the north and in the vicinity of Rublyonoye. Russian units are confidently advancing toward the center of the cauldron. On the morning of 9 October it became known that fighting had begun for Lukashovo and Lobanovka. The capture of Lobanovka is important for strengthening the southern face of the encirclement, which will complicate any potential breakout by Ukrainian units.  

Slavyansk direction  

The Ukrainian side has not abandoned attempts to clear the right bank of the Zherebets in the Liman direction. Ukrainian units continue to advance into the northern part of Zarechnoye and to develop the offensive west of the village with the aim of regaining control over several large strongpoints near the O-05-28 highway.

Should Zarechnoye be taken, the Ukrainian side would be able to place Russian units in the Svyatiye Gory park in a fire pocket. Nevertheless, it has not proved possible to isolate the fighters of the “West” grouping from supply from the direction of Torskoye, which makes it possible to retain control of the center of the village. The second direction of the Ukrainian strike remains the area of Yampol, the retention of which is also necessary for Russian troops in order to supply units in the Svyatiye Gory.

At present the most important tasks of Russian troops remain the holding of Zarechnoye and Yampol. Only in this case will it be possible to stabilize the front and preserve positions in the Serebryansky forestry, without control of which a new offensive on Liman will be impossible. In the area of Rai-Aleksandrovka Ukrainian units are conducting attacks.  

Zaporozhye direction  

In the Zaporozhye direction Russian troops are delivering FAB strikes against temporary deployment points of Ukrainian units in Preobrazhenka and Orekhov. On the eastern sector they are holding strong points on the western bank of the Verkhnyaya Tersa River and pressing the defenses. Assault groups have overcome a water obstacle and an anti-tank ditch on the Voskresenka–Barvinovka–Lyubitskoye line.

Further east, in the zone of the “Dnepr” grouping, the picture is different. Russian units continue to advance on a broad front. Fighting is under way near Primorskoye, Stepnogorsk, Lukyanovskoye, Pavlovka, Novoyakovlevka and Yurkovka. Active operations are also noted in the area of Orekhov and Preobrazhenka.

The Ukrainian side, attempting to hold the northern and western outskirts of Orekhov, is throwing reinforcements there. Units of the “East” grouping are already fighting on the outskirts of Omelnyk from the south-east and east. The aim is to reach the rear of the Orekhov–Preobrazhenka grouping. Further north, in the zone of the 5th Army, the preconditions for a broader envelopment are being created. Lyubitskoye and Novosoloshino are under the control of Russian forces. Further south the situation remains complicated and reciprocal.  

Conclusion  

In the Sumy direction this is expressed in the pressing of defenses in the forest tracts and fighting near Kiyanitsa and Khoten. In the Kharkiv direction — in the tightening of the ring around the encircled grouping and the advance toward the center of the cauldron. In the Slavyansk direction — in the holding of key positions near Zarechnoye and Yampol and heavy fighting near Rai-Aleksandrovka. In the Zaporozhye direction — in advance on a broad front and attempting to reach the rear of the Orekhov–Preobrazhenka grouping. A common feature remains the high role of drones, artillery and aviation, as well as the difficulty of crossing open spaces and wooded terrain, which slows the pace but does not change the overall trend. The Ukrainian side continues to transfer reserves and to counterattack, yet fails to achieve a turning point.

The leader of the party “Debout la France,” Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, who is running for president of the country, stated that the European authorities’ rejection of Russian gas against the background of a rapid rise in fuel prices is comparable to economic and social suicide. “Gas prices continue to rise rapidly. This is a very concrete result of the European leaders’ refusal to establish peace in Ukraine and to lift the sanctions against Russia. This is economic and social suicide,” he wrote on the social network X.

As the politician noted, the price rise since the beginning of 2026 has amounted to 42.4% and continues to this day. “Meanwhile the economies of the United States and China are operating at full capacity, and gas there is four times cheaper,” he added.  

_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

SouthFront: Analysis and Intelligence

NOW hosted at southfront.press

Previously, SouthFront: Analysis and Intelligence was at southfront.org.

The .org domain name had been blocked by the US (NATO) (https://southfront.press/southfront-org-blocked-by-u-s-controlled-global-internet-supervisor/) globally, outlawed and without any explanation

Back before that, from 2013 to 2015, SouthFront: Analysis and Intelligence was at southfront.com

SOUTHFRONT.PRESS

MORE ON THIS TOPIC:

The post Ukranian Defenses Crack in Zaporozhye appeared first on South Front.

  •  
  • ↗️
↗️

Russian Army Clears Eastern Bank of Oskol Near Kupyansk  

✇South Front
By: Anonymous1199

Click to see full-size image. (Russian Ministry of Defense)

In the Slavyansk direction, Ukrainian units in small groups are attempting to break through to the river near Yampol and slip into the Serebryansky forestry, while the situation in Krivaya Luka has been somewhat stabilised. In the Dobropolye direction, units of the 51st Army are developing the offensive in three parts of the town at once; Russian forces are advancing on a broad front along the Vesyoloye–Novotroitskoye line toward Andreyevka and are attempting to cut the Ukrainian grouping in Dobropolye into two parts. In the Sumy direction, assault units of the “North” grouping continue to advance deeper into the region with heavy fighting. In the Kharkiv direction, Russian units continue the destruction of the encircled forces in the northeast of the region; an attempt to break the encirclement ring by forces of the 475th Assault Regiment on “Kazak” armored vehicles has been repelled. In the Kupyansk direction, Russian troops have stabilized the situation north of Kupyansk; control over Kupyansk-Uzlovoy is reported to have been established, and clearing of the territory and evacuation of local residents are under way. NATO and the EU are unsuccessfully attempting to persuade Greece and Spain to transfer to Ukraine PAC-2 interceptors with expiring service life.

Slavyansk direction  

Ukrainian units in small groups continue to break through to the river near Yampol; attempts to slip into the Serebryansky forestry are also recorded. The situation in Krivaya Luka has been somewhat stabilized. The eastern part of the village remains under Russian units, while the western part is a grey zone. Ukrainian units have not abandoned attempts to reach this village and from there further toward Kaleniki. However, given the complicated situation above the Seversky Donets River, the threat of a flanking strike against Russian positions remains, and the overall situation on the sector remains difficult.

Positional fighting is under way on the western outskirts of Rai-Aleksandrovka. Inside the village itself the situation is unchanged: new groups of Ukrainian units are being destroyed, yet several groups managed to slip in and dig in within the settlement. Fighting for Piskunovka continues. Approximately half of the village is under Russian units. Ukrainian units are counterattacking near Vasyutinskoye. Russian units thwarted an attempt by groups of Ukrainian units to enter the rear from the direction of Minkovka. They advanced westward, expanding the zone of control from Novomarkovo.

The Slavyansk direction remains tense: Ukrainian units in small groups are attempting to break through to the river near Yampol and slip into the Serebryansky forestry. The situation in Krivaya Luka has been stabilized — the eastern part of the village is under the control of Russian units. In the Krasny Liman direction Russian fighters are holding back the pressure along the Zherebets River.  

Dobropolye direction  

In Dobropolye units of the 51st Army are developing the offensive in three parts of the town at once. Drone operators are working against the territory of the Dobropolskaya mine. At the same time Russian forces continue to advance on a broad front along the Vesyoloye–Novotroitskoye line toward Andreyevka. From the south-east to the borders of Andreyevka approximately one kilometer remains.

In the area of Dobropolye Russian units are conducting a successful assault. The Ukrainian grouping has been taken into encirclement and is being cut into two parts. A fairly large amount of urban territory has already been captured. Ukrainian units are still present in the other half. The advance continues. Russian units have entered the central part of Dobropolye from the north-east and south-west. South of the town fighting is under way near Belitskoye, Svetloye and Krasnopodolye. The zone of control is expanding near Zolotoy Kolodets.

Ukrainian units are desperately attempting to break the encirclement ring through the north, via Novovodyanoye. They are attacking in the direction of Dobropolye. So far they have not succeeded. In Novovodyanoye, despite Ukrainian claims of full control, Russian positions exist. It is a layered situation. Stubborn fighting continues on the Zolotoy Kolodets line. An attack from two sides toward the Dobropolye cauldron is under way — through Novovodyanoye and through Zolotoy Kolodets toward Rubezhnoye.  

Sumy direction  

Assault units of the “North” grouping continue to advance deeper into the Sumy region with heavy fighting, supported by aviation and strike-drone crews. Ukrainian units have taken no active actions and are replenishing mechanized units with new recruits. Recruits trained as artillerymen have arrived from training grounds in the Sumy region. All of them, however, were sent into the infantry because of the catastrophic shortage of personnel on the positions.

In the Sumy direction Russian troops have officially announced the capture of Kiyanitsa. Previous gains here — Mogritsa, Malaya Rybitsa — according to some data were not always confirmed. Troops are nevertheless attempting to advance virtually along the entire line of contact. In Shostka district, assault groups of Russian units have advanced near Korenok.  

Kharkiv direction  

Russian units continue the destruction of the encircled Ukrainian forces in the northeast of Kharkiv region. Ukrainian units have not abandoned attempts to break the encirclement ring from the outside. In the Liptsy direction Russian assault troops continue to advance near Tokarevka.

In the Volchansk and Veliky Burluk directions Ukrainian units made an attempt to break the encirclement from the outside with two assault groups of the 475th Separate Assault Regiment on “Kazak” armored fighting vehicles from the area of Veliky Burluk. They achieved no success and withdrew to their starting positions with losses. In the northern part of Kharkiv region very complicated fighting is under way. Both sides are attempting to attack. Russian troops are trying to finish clearing the cauldron near Varvarovka and Reznikovka. Ukrainian units are attempting to break through there with forces of the 475th Assault Regiment in order to relieve their own forces. There is hope of finishing this cauldron and stabilizing the front. Then, relying on it, to move toward Bolshoy Burluk — already in the late-autumn or winter campaign.  

Kupyansk direction  

In the zone of the “West” grouping the triumphant statements from the Kyiv side have ended. The situation for Ukrainian units is becoming worse. Russian units are gradually arriving — in addition to drone operators, infantry. It will be possible to capture part of the positions that were previously lost, including in Liman, where units continue to fight in the southern and central parts of the city.

In the Kupyansk direction Russian troops have stabilized the situation north of Kupyansk. Near Dvurechnaya Ukrainian units, despite the commitment of reserves, have achieved no success. Russian units are gradually finishing the clearance of Ukrainian positions on the eastern bank of the Oskol south of Kupyansk. Reports are arriving from the Kupyansk front of the establishment of control over Kupyansk-Uzlovoy.

Clearing of the territory and evacuation of local residents are now under way. Fighting continues for positions and communications along the Oskol. On the left bank of Kupyansk clashes persist near Kovsharovka and Kupyansk-Uzlovoy. Positional fighting also continues inside Kupyansk itself. Russian units have advanced up to two kilometers and captured new positions on the southern approaches to the Zarechnaya part of the city.  

Conclusion  

In the Slavyansk direction this is expressed in the stabilization of Krivaya Luka and fighting for Piskunovka while the threat of a flanking strike remains. In the Dobropolye direction — in consolidation in the central part of the town and attempts to cut the encircled grouping. In the Sumy direction — in advance near Kiyanitsa and Korenok. In the Kharkiv direction — in the final clearance of the cauldron near Varvarovka and Reznikovka. In the Kupyansk direction — in the stabilization of the front and the establishment of control over Kupyansk-Uzlovoy. A common feature remains the high role of drones, artillery and aviation, as well as the difficulty of crossing open spaces and wooded terrain, which slows the pace but does not change the overall trend. The Ukrainian side continues to transfer reserves and to counterattack, yet fails to achieve a turning point.

NATO and the EU are unsuccessfully attempting to persuade Greece and Spain to transfer to Ukraine their stocks of PAC-2 interceptors with expiring service life, the Telegraph reported. “NATO and EU officials are trying to persuade Greece and Spain to hand over Patriot PAC-2 interceptors whose service life is expiring to Ukraine,” the publication stated. However, as is clarified, Athens and Madrid are refusing to provide the interceptors. According to the newspaper, Greece has at least 200 PAC-2 missiles with expiring service life. The number of such interceptors held by Spain is unknown, although earlier this year it had promised to transfer missiles to Kyiv.  

_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

SouthFront: Analysis and Intelligence

NOW hosted at southfront.press

Previously, SouthFront: Analysis and Intelligence was at southfront.org.

The .org domain name had been blocked by the US (NATO) (https://southfront.press/southfront-org-blocked-by-u-s-controlled-global-internet-supervisor/) globally, outlawed and without any explanation

Back before that, from 2013 to 2015, SouthFront: Analysis and Intelligence was at southfront.com

SOUTHFRONT.PRESS

MORE ON THIS TOPIC:

The post Russian Army Clears Eastern Bank of Oskol Near Kupyansk   appeared first on South Front.

  •  
  • ↗️
↗️

Ukrainian Troops Flee Dobropolye

✇South Front
By: Anonymous1199

File image.

In the Dobropolye direction, Russian assault groups have consolidated in the southern part of the town, infiltrating from the direction of the village of Dobropolye and Annivka, while Ukrainian units acknowledge fighting within the city limits. In the Sumy direction, Russian units of the “North” grouping have advanced 400 meters through tree lines near Kiyanitsa and Khoten and are fighting in the forest tract near Korenok. In the Kharkiv direction, Russian assault groups are expanding the zone of control with heavy fighting; they have taken Beryozki, Potikhonovo, Komarovo, the farms near Shabelnoye and the greater part of Malaya Volchya, and have advanced near Olkhovatka. In the Zaporozhye direction, Russian troops are advancing in the areas of Yegorovka and Krasny Rodnik; Lyubitskoye and Novosoloshino are returning under control, and fighting continues for Orekhov. U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner will meet Ukrainian officials on Friday to discuss a new proposal for ending the conflict.

Dobropolye direction  

Movement of small groups of Russian units has been recorded in the southern and eastern parts of the town. Russian units are infiltrating the town both from the direction of the village of Dobropolye and from neighbouring Annivka. Further south, fighting continues in the Krasnopodolye–Chernigovka–Vodyanskoye triangle. On the southern flank, as before, local clashes are under way in the vicinity of Mirnoye and Gulevo. In the vicinity of Sergeyevka and Molodetskoye the situation has remained relatively static for the past several months.

While Ukrainian formations are distracted by fighting in Alekseyevo-Druzhkovka and near Liman, Russian units are seizing the moment and attempting to consolidate in the center of Dobropolye as quickly as possible. This will make it possible to form the base of a “pincer” for a broader envelopment of the Slavyansk–Kramatorsk agglomeration from the west. Without stabilization of the situation on the northern flank, however, actions in Dobropolye are virtually meaningless.

Marines have entered Dobropolye, where they are fighting in the center of the town and expanding control of the territory. From the direction of Maloye Dobropolye paratroopers are advancing toward Svyatogorovka; an offensive is also under way toward the south of the town of Dobropolye. In the area of Verovka and Raksha Russian troops have managed to advance along the gully. Further north, near Zolotoy Kolodets, fighters of Russian units are delivering fire against positions and groups of Ukrainian forces near the village of Novovodyanoye. Consolidation groups also continue to clear the territory from the mine near Belitskoye as far as Matyashevo, where the Ukrainian side still has scattered groups serving as observation posts.  

Sumy direction  

Russian units of the “North” grouping are increasing the intensity of strikes against Ukrainian positions on all sectors in Sumy direction, supporting the advance of assault groups. The Ukrainian side is actively strengthening defenses on secondary lines.

In Sumy district Russian assault troops have advanced through tree lines near Kiyanitsa and Khoten. Overall progress reached up to 400 meters. In Shostka district, assault groups of Russian units are conducting small-arms fighting in the forest tract near Korenok. The Russian army is advancing near the border with the Kursk region. The offensive is under way near the Sumy village of Korenok. Assault units of the “North” grouping are also fighting near Kiyanitsa and Khoten. In connection with the successes of Russian units, Kyiv is forced to transfer additional forces to the Sumy region.  

Kharkiv direction  

In the Liptsy direction fierce fighting is under way near Tokarevka. In the Volchansk and Veliky Burluk directions Russian units continue the destruction of the encircled Ukrainian forces in the “Volchansk cauldron,” employing all available means of fire. Russian assault troops have advanced near Nefyodovka, Sosnovy Bor, Reznikovo and Kupino. From the outer side of the encirclement there is progress near Annopolye.

Over the past week Russian units have noticeably advanced near Olkhovatka and have continued to consolidate and expand control in the cauldron north of Veliky Burluk. The Ukrainian side is counterattacking unsuccessfully and attempting to break out. Russian drones are effectively disrupting the logistics of Ukrainian forces near Veliky Burluk, destroying equipment and personnel. From the south and east Russian units have taken control of Beryozki, Potikhonovo and Komarovo, and from the north they have taken the farms near Shabelnoye and the greater part of Malaya Volchya.

In the area of Volchansk the situation remains dynamic. The Ukrainian side made an attempt at a counterattack and managed to enter Grafskoye. Ukrainian units do not have full control of the village: intensive fighting is currently under way in part of the settlement, and sabotage and reconnaissance groups are actively operating on both sides. Russian units are slowly but steadily shifting the front southward near Kazachya Lopan. Having taken Novaya Kazachya, Russian units are clearing the village. In addition, fighting continues near Turovo and inside Tokarevka, where Russian fighters have consolidated part of the territory. 

Zaporozhye direction  

In the Orekhov direction difficulties are mounting for the Ukrainian side. The 35th Army continues to advance near Yegorovka and Krasny Rodnik. The 5th Army is also restoring the situation. Without supply, Vozdvizhevka may soon be fully captured.

Lyubitskoye and Novosoloshino are returning under the control of Russian units. Fighting is still under way for the latter; the Ukrainian side is attempting to counterattack, but overall the crisis in this sector has been overcome. There are also successes south of Lyubitskoye, in the zone of the 5th Army. Fighting for Orekhov itself is proceeding methodically. Ukrainian units are gradually being driven out of the northern and western parts of the city. Russian units are already overhanging Orekhov not only from the north-east but also from the north. All the preconditions exist for the 5th Army to enter the rear of the Ukrainian defensive line.

A little further west, also in the “Dnepr” zone, an offensive is under way on a broad front. Fighting is being conducted for Primorskoye and the northern outskirts of Stepnogorsk. Clearing operations are under way in Lukyanovka, Novoyakovlevka and Yurkovka. The task is clear: in parallel with the capturing of Orekhov, to reach the Konka River in its lower course and attempt to secure bridgeheads on the northern bank while the foliage still provides cover.  

Conclusion  

In the Dobropolye direction this is expressed in consolidation in the southern part of the town and attempts to form a base for the envelopment of the agglomeration from the west. In the Sumy direction — in advances through forest tracts and pressure on the defenses near Kiyanitsa and Khoten. In the Kharkiv direction — in the expansion of the zone of control and the tightening of the ring around the “Volchansk cauldron.” In the Zaporozhye direction — in the envelopment of Orekhov and the advance to the Konka River. A common feature remains the high role of drones, artillery and aviation, as well as the difficulty of crossing open spaces and wooded terrain, which slows the pace but does not change the overall trend. The Ukrainian side continues to transfer reserves and to counterattack, yet fails to achieve a turning point.

U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff and the president’s son-in-law Jared Kushner will meet Ukrainian representatives on Friday to discuss a new proposal for ending the Ukrainian conflict. According to NewsNation journalist Kellie Meyer, the U.S. special envoys will discuss “a new comprehensive proposal covering all aspects of the conflict and aimed at ending the war.” National security advisers from the United Kingdom, France and Germany, as well as representatives of the European Union and NATO, will take part in the meeting.  

_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

SouthFront: Analysis and Intelligence

NOW hosted at southfront.press

Previously, SouthFront: Analysis and Intelligence was at southfront.org.

The .org domain name had been blocked by the US (NATO) (https://southfront.press/southfront-org-blocked-by-u-s-controlled-global-internet-supervisor/) globally, outlawed and without any explanation

Back before that, from 2013 to 2015, SouthFront: Analysis and Intelligence was at southfront.com

SOUTHFRONT.PRESS

MORE ON THIS TOPIC:

The post Ukrainian Troops Flee Dobropolye appeared first on South Front.

  •  
  • ↗️
↗️

Blitzkrieg or Protracted Siege? What Polymarket Says About the Fall of Ukrainian Cities in Autumn 2026

✇South Front
By: Anonymous834

Click to see the full-size image

Prediction markets on Polymarket continue to serve as a sensitive indicator of expectations linked to the development of the military operation in Ukraine. While at the beginning of 2026 investors’ attention was focused on Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad, by autumn the epicentre of bets had shifted to Kostiantynivka, Dobropolye, Orikhiv and the Slavyansk–Kramatorsk agglomeration. Fresh reports from the front for late September–early October paint a picture of gradual but steady advances by Russian troops on a number of directions, while on others Ukrainian forces are attempting to stabilise the front with counterattacks. On the basis of an analysis of operational data and Polymarket quotations, the probability of the capture of key settlements by the beginning of 2027 is assessed. Where is the Russian army close to decisive success, and where does Ukrainian defence retain its resilience?

Kostiantynivka 

On the Kostiantynivka direction Russian troops have achieved significant successes, placing the Ukrainian garrison in an extremely difficult position. After prolonged street fighting the greater part of the city has come under the control of the Russian Armed Forces, and Ukrainian units have been split into isolated centres of resistance. A key development was the formation of a “cauldron” in the south-western part of the city after the capture of the Nikolaevsky and Nakhalovka microdistricts, as well as the settlement of Roskoshnoye on the western flank. Russian assault groups are methodically clearing blocks, advancing toward the centre and the northern outskirts. Ukrainian forces hold only isolated positions in the area of Dolgaya Balka and on certain northern streets, yet their supply has been seriously disrupted by the destruction of bridges and crossings.

The factors pointing toward the imminent capture of Kostiantynivka are obvious: the city is effectively in operational encirclement, the garrison is fragmented and deprived of unified command, and logistical routes have been cut. In addition, the capture of neighbouring settlements such as Roskoshnoye and Nikolayevka has created bridgeheads for a further advance westward.

Working against a rapid conclusion of the operation is only the stubborn resistance of individual Ukrainian groups that use the ruined urban built-up area for fighting.

Click to see the full-size image

Dobropolye 

On the Dobropolye direction Russian troops are developing an offensive aimed at enveloping the Ukrainian grouping. Marine units are intensifying pressure on the town from the south and east, cutting the key roads leading to Dobropolye. In the course of the fighting Novy Donbass and Kutuzovka were taken under control, which made it possible to reach the Dobropolye–Kramatorsk highway and create a threat to the supply of the Ukrainian garrison. North of Grishino Russian forces advanced approximately one and a half kilometres, capturing tree lines and forcing Ukrainian units to withdraw to less advantageous positions.

Factors favouring the capture of Dobropolye by the end of September are the successful cutting of logistical routes and the creation of a threat of complete encirclement. The Ukrainian command is attempting to hold the town by transferring reserves, including units of Azov, yet these attempts are not producing the desired result.

Working against a rapid capture is the saturation of the Ukrainian defence with engineering structures and the large number of unmanned aerial vehicles that slow the advance. Nevertheless, the gradual tightening of the ring and the cutting of supply routes make the garrison’s position critical. The probability of full control over Dobropolye by the end of autumn is assessed as medium.

Click to see the full-size image

Orikhiv 

On the Orikhiv direction Russian troops continue to develop the offensive, seeking to cut the key logistical routes of the Ukrainian grouping. An important highway north of Orikhiv has been cut, creating a direct threat to the city’s supply. Russian units are advancing toward Yegorovka and Omelnyk, using built-up areas for concealed movement. Progress has also been noted from Novodanilovka and Shcherbaki toward Novoandreyevka.

Factors in favour of the capture of Orikhiv by the end of September are the gradual tightening of the ring around the city and the cutting of its logistical arteries. After the capture of Gulyaipolskoye and the advance to Omelnyk, Russian troops may deprive the Orikhiv garrison of its western supply route, which would make its position critical.

Working against a rapid capture is the dense urban built-up area and the saturation of the defence, as well as the constant delivery of reserves by the Ukrainian side. Orikhiv is an important symbol of resistance, and its loss will be a serious blow to the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Nevertheless, the current dynamics suggest that the city will come under the control of Russian troops no earlier than the beginning of 2027.

Click to see the full-size image

Alekseyevo-Druzhkovka 

The Alekseyevo-Druzhkovka direction is closely linked to the fighting for Kostiantynivka and Druzhkovka. Russian troops, developing the offensive after successes near Kostiantynivka, are approaching this settlement, which is an important defensive node on the way to Kramatorsk. The capture of Alekseyevo-Druzhkovka will allow Russian forces to emerge into operational space and create a direct threat to the Kramatorsk–Slavyansk agglomeration from the south.

Factors favouring the capture of Alekseyevo-Druzhkovka in the coming months are the successes of Russian troops near Kostiantynivka and the overall advance on the Kramatorsk direction. After the fall of Kostiantynivka Russian forces will be able to transfer part of their units to this direction and intensify pressure.

Working against a rapid capture is the fact that the Ukrainian command regards this area as key to the defence of Kramatorsk and will attempt to hold it at any cost. Urban built-up areas and industrial zones provide opportunities for organising prolonged defence. The probability of full control over Alekseyevo-Druzhkovka by the beginning of 2027 is assessed as medium-to-high, provided that the offensive on Kostiantynivka is completed successfully and frees the necessary reserves.

Click to see the full-size image

Stepnogorsk 

The situation in the area of Stepnogorsk remains tense. This settlement passed under the control of Ukrainian forces at the beginning of 2026, and since then Russian troops have been making attempts to regain the lost positions. So far, however, they have not achieved success. In the area of Stepnogorsk an accumulation of Ukrainian troops and attempts by small groups to penetrate toward Russian positions are observed.

Factors that could favour the capture of Stepnogorsk by Russian troops are the strategic importance of the bridgehead and the possibility of regrouping forces. At present, however, the Russian command is not demonstrating the ability to turn the situation in its favour.

Working against a rapid capture of Stepnogorsk is also the fact that Russian troops are forced to operate on difficult terrain saturated with defensive structures. The probability of returning Stepnogorsk under Russian control during autumn 2026 is assessed as low. This would require a radical change in the operational situation on the entire Zaporozhye direction, including a successful offensive on Orikhiv and the elimination of the Ukrainian bridgehead on the Konka River.

Click to see the full-size image

Krasny Liman 

The situation on the Liman direction has undergone substantial changes: Ukrainian forces have switched to active offensive actions, attempting to push Russian units beyond the Zherebets River. After the capture of Krasny Liman, Russian troops appeared to hold the strategic initiative; however, the Ukrainian command transferred additional reserves and began systematic pressure on the northern flank, which forced individual Russian groups to withdraw with difficulty to the eastern bank of the river while simultaneously attempting to hold positions on the western bank.

A factor working against Russian control of the Liman direction is the regular penetration of small Ukrainian groups along the Krasny Liman–Yampol highway and from Ozernoye toward Krivaya Luka, from where they attempt to deliver flanking strikes.

Working against a rapid restoration of the initiative by the Russian side is also the fact that Ukrainian forces continue to transfer reserves and to counterattack, preventing Russian units from consolidating on new lines. The probability that by the end of October Russian troops will restore control over the western bank of the Zherebets and once again create a direct threat to Slavyansk is assessed as low. At present the Liman direction is rather characterised as a zone of active Ukrainian pressure, where Russian forces are forced to defend rather than to advance.

Click to see the full-size image

Conclusion 

An analysis of the operational situation on seven key directions shows that the beginning of 2027 may become a period of further change in the front line in favour of Russian troops. Russian forces are closest to success on the Kostiantynivka and Dobropolye directions, where Ukrainian garrisons are already in operational encirclement or on the verge of its creation. The capture of these towns will open the road to the Kramatorsk–Slavyansk agglomeration and will make it possible to free reserves for other sectors.

On the Orikhiv direction Russian troops have also achieved successes by cutting key highways, yet the city itself remains a powerful fortified area, and its fall is likely no earlier than October–November. Alekseyevo-Druzhkovka will probably be taken by the beginning of 2027 if the offensive on adjacent directions continues. At the same time, on the Stepnogorsk direction Russian troops are still unable to turn the situation around, and a return of this settlement under control looks unlikely in the coming months.

Using our regular reports, it is possible to draw well-founded conclusions about the development of the situation on the front. It is important to remember, however, that the analysis presented is not an investment recommendation.

MORE ON THE TOPIC:

The post Blitzkrieg or Protracted Siege? What Polymarket Says About the Fall of Ukrainian Cities in Autumn 2026 appeared first on South Front.

  •  
  • ↗️
↗️

Russian Army Presses Toward Dobropolye From South

✇South Front
By: Anonymous1199

File image.

In the Slavyansk direction, Russian units are holding the line along the Zherebets River, repelling attempts by Ukrainian groups to infiltrate the eastern bank; the most difficult situation remains in Krasny Liman. In the Dobropolye direction, tactical successes by Russian units on the Sergeyevka–Grishino line are confirmed; fighting continues in the vicinity of the village of Dobropolye and near Zolotoy Kolodets. In the Sumy direction, Russian assault groups are advancing through tree lines north of Sumy and near Kiyanitsa. In the Kharkiv direction, Russian units continue to advance deeper into the “Volchansk cauldron,” have taken new positions near Bugayevka and Tokarevka, and have repelled a counterattack near Kurgannoye. Meanwhile, Sweden will deploy a Patriot air-defense system in Poland to strengthen NATO’s eastern flank.

Slavyansk direction  

Russian fighters are holding back the pressure of Ukrainian units along the Zherebets River, preventing any significant forces from breaking across it. Reports of attempts by sabotage and reconnaissance groups to infiltrate the eastern bank continue to appear. The Ukrainian side has not abandoned attempts to enter Yampolovka from the direction of Kolodezi, as well as to cross near Novolyubovka.

Ukrainian units are gradually increasing their presence in the forests west of Zarechnoye, continually bringing in new infantry groups despite high losses from Russian drone and artillery strikes. Fighting continues on the outskirts of Zarechnoye itself. In Krasny Liman the situation remains difficult. Russian fighters still retain the approaches to the city through the forest tract, yet cannot consolidate there. The Ukrainian side holds numerical superiority as well as an advantage in drones, of which there are a great many here.

In the area of Dibrova and Ozernoye Ukrainian units have accumulated considerable reserves. Russian fighters are systematically destroying drone control points west of Ozernoye. With these drones the Ukrainian side is affecting not only the zone of responsibility of the “West” grouping near Yampol, but is also attempting to disrupt the supply of Russian troops from the “South” grouping, which are conducting heavy defensive fighting in the vicinity of Rai-Aleksandrovka and attempting to retain the bridgehead beyond the Seversky Donets–Donbass canal.  

Dobropolye direction  

On the southern flank earlier reports of tactical successes by Russian units on the Sergeyevka–Grishino line are confirmed. The situation here remains tense; further advance is complicated by the abundance of drones on the Ukrainian side.

Clashes also continue in the vicinity of the village of Dobropolye, located south of the town of the same name. Russian fighters are advancing westward along the Vodyanaya River, attempting to reach Novofyodorovka and further toward Krivorozhye in order to expand the potential envelopment of Dobropolye. Strikes by aviation and artillery continue against the town itself. On the southern outskirts Russian assault troops are operating; on the northern outskirts high-explosive aerial bombs with a universal planning and correction module are being employed. Ukrainian units are attempting to build up forces in the vicinity of the town.

In the area of Zolotoy Kolodets the situation remains tense. There the Ukrainian side is conducting local counterattacks. At the same time, on this line several settlements, including Zolotoy Kolodets itself and neighboring ones, were not under stable control of Russian units — only several infiltration groups were operating there. In the north of the Dobropolye direction a fairly extensive “grey zone” remains, in which fighting continues. 

Sumy direction  

The most active combat operations are unfolding near the forest tract north of Sumy. Russian units of the “North” grouping are advancing through the tree lines with artillery support. The Ukrainian side has taken no active actions and is sitting on the defensive.

Russian aviation, artillery and drone crews struck concentrations of personnel and equipment of Ukrainian units in the areas of Kiyanitsa, Gruzskoye, Gnilitsa, Krolevets, Uralovo, Pustogorod, Turya and Volnoye. In the Sumy district, assault groups of Russian units advanced 200 metres near Kiyanitsa. In Shostka district Russian assault troops were clearing tree lines near previously captured settlements.

In the Glukhov direction the Russian army continued to hold positions in Ulanovo while simultaneously attempting to strengthen its presence in Tolstodubovo. Activity is also maintained in the near rear. Ukrainian authorities recorded strikes against the Glukhov community and Shostka district.  

Kharkiv direction  

Assault units of the “North” grouping continue a confident advance deeper into the “Volchansk cauldron,” as well as on other sectors of the front. The Ukrainian side is forced to withdraw to more advantageous defensive lines.

In the Kharkiv sector Russian units have taken new positions in the area of the villages of Bugayevka and Tokarevka and are advancing near Novaya Kazachya. On the eastern sector of the front the cauldron is being cleared. According to operational data, an attempt at a counterattack by Ukrainian units from the direction of the village of Kurgannoye was repelled. Fighting continues near Prikolotnoye and Maly Burluk.

In the Liptsy direction Russian troops advanced near Tokarevka and captured several Ukrainian strongpoints. In the Volchansk and Veliky Burluk directions, assault units of Russian troops advanced near Prikolotnoye, Kotovka, Varvarovka, Reznikovo, Nikolayevka and Annopolye.

The Ukrainian side made another unsuccessful attempt to break the encirclement ring from the area of Kurgannoye with forces of the 475th Separate Assault Regiment. As a result of comprehensive fire strikes more than half of the assault group was destroyed. From the northern side Russian troops established control over the greater part of Malaya Volchya and took the farms near Shabelnoye.  

Conclusion  

In the Slavyansk direction this is expressed in the holding of the line along the Zherebets and heavy fighting in the forest tracts. In the Dobropolye direction — in tactical successes on the southern flank and pressure on the town from several sides. In the Sumy direction — it advances through tree lines north of the regional center. In the Kharkiv direction — in the tightening of the ring around the “Volchansk cauldron” and the occupation of new positions. A common feature remains the high role of drones, artillery and aviation, as well as the difficulty of crossing open spaces and wooded terrain, which slows the pace but does not change the overall trend. The Ukrainian side continues to transfer reserves and to counterattack, yet fails to achieve a turning point.

Sweden will deploy a Patriot air-defense system in Poland to strengthen the protection of NATO’s eastern flank, the kingdom’s armed forces reported. “Sweden will deploy a Patriot air-defense system in Poland to strengthen the protection of NATO’s eastern flank,” the statement says. It is clarified that approximately 100 servicemen will also be sent to Poland. The tasks of the Swedish forces will include the protection of a logistics center used for the delivery of military assistance to Ukraine. Earlier the armed forces reported that Sweden would send Gripen fighters to Poland for two months to participate in the NATO air-policing mission, including for the protection of the logistics center.  

_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

SouthFront: Analysis and Intelligence

NOW hosted at southfront.press

Previously, SouthFront: Analysis and Intelligence was at southfront.org.

The .org domain name had been blocked by the US (NATO) (https://southfront.press/southfront-org-blocked-by-u-s-controlled-global-internet-supervisor/) globally, outlawed and without any explanation

Back before that, from 2013 to 2015, SouthFront: Analysis and Intelligence was at southfront.com

SOUTHFRONT.PRESS

MORE ON THIS TOPIC:

 

The post Russian Army Presses Toward Dobropolye From South appeared first on South Front.

  •  
  • ↗️
↗️

Ukrainian Forces Attempt Infiltrations Into Slavyansk–Kramatorsk Forests

✇South Front
By: Anonymous1199

Click to see full-size image. (Russian Ministry of Defense)

In the Zaporozhye direction, Russian units of the “East” and “Dnepr” groupings are fighting near Novopavlovka, Yalta, Komar and Omelnyk, while the 58th Army is advancing in the central part of Orekhov. In the Slavyansk direction, heavy protracted fighting continues: Ukrainian units are employing infiltration and accumulation tactics, operating in groups from Karpovka, Glushchenkovo and Novy Mir toward Novomikhaylovka, Katerinovka and Ivanovka. In the Sumy direction, assault units of the “North” grouping are pressing the defenses, advancing near Kiyanitsa and Khoten, while Ukrainian units are transferring new drone crews and attacking civilian objects. In the Kharkiv direction, Russian assault groups are enveloping centers of resistance inside the “Volchansk cauldron”, delivering precision strikes against identified concentrations and advancing near Kotovka, Varvarovka, Reznikovo, Kupino and Annopolye. Meanwhile, BSW party leader Sahra Wagenknecht called on German Chancellor Friedrich Merz to resign after his visit to Kyiv and promised to allocate one billion euros to Ukraine.

Zaporozhye direction  

Fierce fighting for the village and its outskirts is under way near Novopavlovka: Ukrainian units are again exerting pressure and attempting to regain lost positions. Near Yalta Ukrainian forces are also continuing attempts to penetrate and consolidate in the village.

Russian units continue to hold Komar and repel attacks. Ukrainian forces are concentrating in Mirnoye and Poddubnoye, attempting to transfer groups to the other bank and consolidate. Fierce fighting continues near Omelnyk, which is one of the key logistics points for Ukrainian units.

On the Orekhov direction units of the 58th Army continue to advance in the central part of Orekhov. Earlier assault groups of the 70th Guards Motor Rifle Regiment advanced into Ukrainian defenses and captured prisoners from a covering group left near underground tunnels. Fighting continues on the approaches to Omelnyk and Preobrazhenka.

On the Stepnogorsk–Shcherbaki line Russian troops retain tactical progress. Paratroopers of the “Dnepr” grouping are developing the offensive toward Pavlovka and Lukyanovskoye. Fighting is shifting toward Stepnogorsk, where Ukrainian units are attempting to organize a defense with the use of FPV drones. A little further west, closer to the Dnieper, offensive fighting has resumed toward the lower reaches of the Konka River. Fighting is under way on the northern outskirts of Stepnogorsk. Russian troops have again entered Primorskoye and are attempting to take the southern part of the settlement. Attempts to consolidate beyond the southern outskirts of Lukyanovskoye continue. Fighting is also under way in Novoyakovlevka.  

Slavyansk direction  

From Karpovka, Glushchenkovo and Novy Mir Ukrainian units are sending groups toward Novomikhaylovka and Katerinovka with the aim of a further breakthrough to Novolyubovka. Groups of Ukrainian forces are attempting to accumulate in Novoye for a dash to Ivanovka. Previous attacks on Ivanovka were unsuccessful. This settlement is partially under the control of Russian units; the approaches to it are also held.

Ukrainian units are actively conducting attacks from the direction of Drobyshevo toward Stavki and Kolodezi. Despite high losses, the Ukrainian side continues to send its assault groups there daily. Serious pressure is being exerted on the fortifications located between Mirnoye and Ivanovka. The intention of Ukrainian units is clear: to finish off Kolodezi and approach Ivanovka both through the fortifications and from two sides.

Russian pilots and artillery are actively working against Ukrainian groups, preventing them from consolidating near Zarechnoye. Russian troops are operating in the forest tract near Krasny Liman, Maslyakovka and Dibrova. The search for and destruction of groups of Ukrainian units inside Krasny Liman itself continues uninterrupted. Strikes continue against Ukrainian logistics in the areas of Mayaki, Raigorodok, Shchurovo and the eastern part of Slavyansk.

The Zarechnoye–Torskoye–Yampol sector, approximately 10 km in length, is key to retaining the bridgehead beyond the Zherebets River. The main attention is focused on the defense of this stretch. Ukrainian units are actively advancing on this sector, including along the railway toward Yampol station. Russian units continue to offer resistance and prevent Ukrainian forces from reaching the river near Yampol and further toward the Serebryansky forestry.  

Sumy direction  

Assault units of the “North” grouping continue to press Ukrainian defenses in the Sumy region. The Ukrainian side is transferring new drone crews to replace those destroyed and is also attacking the civilian population of the border districts.

Russian aviation, artillery and drone crews struck concentrations of personnel and equipment of Ukrainian units in the areas of Sumy, Vakalovshchina, Shevchenkovo and Mironovka. In Sumy district, assault groups of Russian units are advancing near Kiyanitsa and Khoten. In Shostka district there are no significant changes. Drone crews of the “North” grouping intensively worked against the positions of the 104th Separate Territorial Defense Brigade of Ukrainian units.  

Kharkiv direction  

Assault units of the “North” grouping continue to envelop centers of resistance of Ukrainian forces inside the “Volchansk cauldron.” Aviation and drones are delivering precision strikes against identified concentrations. The Ukrainian side has taken no active actions.

A unit of mercenaries from Ecuador has arrived in Kharkiv. They will be employed for counterattacks in the area of Kazachya Lopan and Goptovka. In the Liptsy direction Russian assault troops are conducting small-arms fighting near Alisovka. In the Volchansk and Veliky Burluk directions Russian units have concentrated their main efforts on detecting and destroying Ukrainian drone crews. Assault units have advanced near Kotovka, Varvarovka, Reznikovo, Kupino and Annopolye.  

Conclusion  

In the Zaporozhye direction this is expressed in pressure on Novopavlovka, Yalta, Komar and Omelnyk, as well as in the advance in the central part of Orekhov. In the Slavyansk direction — in heavy meeting engagements in which Ukrainian units employ infiltration tactics while Russian forces hold the key stretch beyond the Zherebets River. In the Sumy direction — in the pressing of defences near Kiyanitsa and Khoten and work against drone crews. In the Kharkiv direction — in the envelopment of centers inside the “Volchansk cauldron” and precision strikes against concentrations. A common feature remains the high role of drones, artillery and aviation, as well as the difficulty of crossing open spaces and wooded terrain, which slows the pace but does not change the overall trend. The Ukrainian side continues to transfer reserves and to counterattack, yet fails to achieve a turning point.

The leader of the German party “Alliance for Social Justice and Reasonable Economics,” Sahra Wagenknecht, called for the resignation of German Chancellor Friedrich Merz because of his visit to Ukraine and the promise to allocate funds to Kyiv against the background of a crisis in Germany itself. Merz and German Economy Minister Katharina Reiche arrived in Kyiv on 4 October on an unannounced visit. During the trip the chancellor promised to allocate one billion euros in military support to Ukraine.

“While Germany is sinking ever deeper into an economic and energy crisis… Merz goes to Kyiv and once again promises Ukraine billion-euro assistance… I believe: anyone who wastes more and more money abroad and so tramples on the interests of his own population must resign immediately!” Wagenknecht wrote on her X social-media page.

The BSW leader pointed out that while Germany itself has to economies on pensions, care for the elderly and healthcare, funds for the corrupt government of Volodymyr Zelensky in Berlin apparently appear endless.

_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

SouthFront: Analysis and Intelligence

NOW hosted at southfront.press

Previously, SouthFront: Analysis and Intelligence was at southfront.org.

The .org domain name had been blocked by the US (NATO) (https://southfront.press/southfront-org-blocked-by-u-s-controlled-global-internet-supervisor/) globally, outlawed and without any explanation

Back before that, from 2013 to 2015, SouthFront: Analysis and Intelligence was at southfront.com

SOUTHFRONT.PRESS

MORE ON THIS TOPIC:

The post Ukrainian Forces Attempt Infiltrations Into Slavyansk–Kramatorsk Forests appeared first on South Front.

  •  
  • ↗️
↗️

The Future of War: What the Battlefield Teaches and the Pentagon Wants to Buy

✇South Front
By: Anonymous834

Click to see the full-size image

Cheap drones, heavy bombs, disrupted shipping, and vulnerable supply routes are challenging the idea that technological superiority guarantees military success. The emerging contest is not simply over who builds the smartest weapon. It is over who can adapt, produce, and keep fighting after the enemy learns how to break it. Washington’s Project Meridian offers one answer. Recent battlefields suggest a much harder test.

The Battlefield Rewrites the Blueprint

The war in Ukraine shows that military innovation does not always mean more sophisticated weapons. Sometimes it means finding a simple way around an enemy’s defenses. Russian forces did that with drones guided through fiber-optic cables instead of radio signals, allowing them to operate despite radio jamming.

During the fighting to push Ukrainian troops out of Russia’s Kursk region, fiber-optic drones threatened the roads supplying Ukrainian positions. Sustained attacks on transport made those positions harder to supply, reinforce, and evacuate. Ground that remained defensible against a direct assault became increasingly difficult to hold as supply routes came under pressure.

Drones did not replace infantry or artillery. Their value came from linking reconnaissance and strikes to a broader effort to disrupt Ukrainian logistics. A relatively small change in drone guidance helped Russian forces put pressure on the supply lines sustaining the defense, rather than just individual vehicles or positions.

A separate example from eastern Ukraine shows how drone attacks can also threaten robotic supply vehicles

Nor did the advantage remain exclusive. Ukrainian units expanded their own fiber-optic capabilities, turning a Russian breakthrough into another round of adaptation. Cable guidance removes the vulnerable radio-control link, but introduces weight, handling, and physical constraints. It does not make the aircraft invisible or indestructible. A solution to one problem creates a different set of tradeoffs.

Russia’s glide bombs demonstrate another route to military innovation. Instead of replacing existing weapons entirely, guidance and wing kits give older bombs greater reach and precision. Their heavy payloads perform tasks that small drones cannot. Their use against Ukrainian positions illustrates why the future battlefield will contain both cheap electronics and large quantities of conventional explosives.

The broader lesson is uncomfortable for anyone selling a universal replacement for the old military. New systems do not arrive on an empty battlefield. They must work with existing aircraft, artillery, engineers, supply units, and command structures. Their value depends on how those parts fit together.

That also limits what strike videos can prove. A successful attack demonstrates an outcome, not the average success rate, the number of failed missions, or the effort required to repeat it. The decisive question is whether an army can turn occasional success into a dependable military capability.

The Cost of Keeping Routes Open

The Red Sea offers a different warning. An attacker does not necessarily have to defeat a navy to impose strategic costs.

Houthi attacks pushed shipping companies toward longer routes around Africa. By late summer 2026, traffic through the Suez Canal was recovering but remained well below pre-crisis levels. Houthi attacks had pushed shipping companies onto longer, more expensive routes, showing how a regional armed group could disrupt global trade without defeating a major navy.

An interception can therefore be a tactical success without restoring normal commercial activity. The defender must protect ships and sustain confidence over time. The attacker may only need to keep the risk credible. Counting destroyed drones does not answer whether the shipping route is functioning.

The familiar comparison between a cheap drone and an expensive interceptor captures only part of this problem. Saving a merchant ship or warship can justify an expensive defensive shot. The deeper question is whether sufficient interceptors, maintenance capacity, crews, and replacement stocks remain available throughout a prolonged campaign.

Ukraine presents a related problem on land. Russian glide bombs combine substantial destructive power with relatively inexpensive conversion kits. Defending against every incoming weapon with a costly missile is not necessarily sustainable. But abandoning high-end air defenses would leave other threats unanswered.

The likely response is a layered force rather than a single miracle weapon. Different threats demand different combinations of detection, electronic warfare, physical protection, and interception. An army also needs to keep operating when some threats get through.

Kursk and the Red Sea are not interchangeable battlefields. One concerns a contested land campaign, the other pressure on maritime commerce. What connects them is the importance of maintaining a function under repeated attack. Delivering supplies and keeping shipping moving matter more than producing an impressive interception tally.

Washington Looks Upward

Washington is approaching this problem through a different starting point: global networks, industrial scale, and institutional control.

On September 30, Pete Hegseth announced Project Meridian alongside a proposed Autonomous Warfare Command and the Fortress America initiative. Meridian would examine future military capabilities, while the new command would organize the expansion of autonomous and robotic systems. Fortress America would address the resilience of bases and supply chains. These are related initiatives, not a single approved war plan.

U.S. service members at the State of the Force address, Quantico, September 30, 2026

Meridian’s advisers include Elon Musk, Palmer Luckey, and Newt Gingrich, under Pentagon technology chief Emil Michael. The study has 120 days to report. Its significance is not that three men can invent the next war. It is that major technology suppliers are being invited to help define the military capabilities Washington should pursue.

The September 30 memorandum commissions a study of future warfare

The State of the Force event at Quantico, where Project Meridian was announced, September 30, 2026

Some of the supporting infrastructure already has funding. On May 26, Space Systems Command awarded SpaceX a $2.29 billion agreement for the Space Data Network Backbone. A fully operational prototype is due by the end of 2027. The intended function is to connect military sensors and weapons through a high-capacity orbital communications network.

That addresses a real military requirement. Information has limited value if it cannot reach the people or systems that need it. But a larger network does not automatically become a more dependable one. The test is whether useful connections survive disruption, and whether units can continue operating when they do not.

Heavy-lift rockets could support the deployment of larger satellite constellations, although these programs do not yet amount to a single publicly defined architecture. Starship Flight 14 reached orbit on September 28 and deployed 26 Starlink V3 satellites. That demonstrated payload delivery, not every capability promised for the rocket. Reaching orbit once and providing dependable, economical military infrastructure are different milestones.

Starship Flight 14 launches from Starbase, September 28, 2026, carrying 26 Starlink V3 satellites

Starship’s final descent, landing burn, and splashdown during Flight 14, September 28, 2026

Golden Dome extends the ambition to missile defense. In May, the Congressional Budget Office estimated that a notional system consistent with the administration’s stated objectives could cost about $1.2 trillion over 20 years. Crucially, this was not a price tag for the Pentagon’s approved design. The final architecture had not been publicly disclosed.

A notional national missile-defense architecture assessed by the Congressional Budget Office

Estimated costs of the Congressional Budget Office’s hypothetical system, expressed in 2026 dollars

The policy risk is not simply excessive ambition. It is defining military problems in ways that favor the products already offered by influential suppliers. That deserves scrutiny without assuming that commercial involvement makes every proposal useless. A contract is evidence of spending. It is not evidence of battlefield superiority.

Elon Musk, named a co-leader of Project Meridian

Machines Still Need Factories

The American approach emphasizes integrating ambitious systems through large institutions. The battlefield experience points toward an equally important requirement: changing ordinary systems quickly.

These approaches are not mutually exclusive. Satellites and inexpensive drones can support the same force. The tension lies in their development cycles. A major space program cannot be redesigned every few weeks. A frontline drone or its communications equipment may lose effectiveness if updates take years.

The industrial base must therefore support both continuity and rapid revision. Ukraine’s drone sector demonstrates the importance of close feedback between operators and developers, but also the vulnerability of assembly dependent on imported components. A domestically assembled aircraft is not necessarily an independently sustainable capability.

Russian developers are also discussing the problem in terms broader than individual weapons. In September, the Ushkuynik center presented a drone assembly line housed in a modified shipping container. The proposal illustrates an effort to distribute production rather than concentrate it in a single factory.

These are developer proposals, not independently demonstrated solutions at national scale. Nevertheless, they identify two important problems: distributing production and closing gaps between separate defensive systems.

A workshop, a repair team, and a reliable component supplier may therefore matter as much as another model advertised as revolutionary. Military adaptation requires people who can identify a failure, explain it to engineers, approve a modification, and return workable equipment to service.

Autonomous Warfare Command: new drones, familiar geometry. All that’s missing is the secret handshake

Autonomy does not remove these obligations. The meaningful question is which task a machine can perform reliably without continuous human input, under what conditions, and with what consequences when it fails. “Autonomous” should describe a tested function, not serve as a substitute for explaining one.

Fortress America recognizes another dependency. Hegseth’s stated aim is for military installations eventually to operate under their own power, alongside stronger protection and domestic supply chains. Yet independence from the civilian grid would not by itself eliminate the need for fuel, spare parts, communications, or skilled maintenance. Resilience must extend beyond the perimeter fence.

The same principle applies at the front. Engineering and logistics deserve attention alongside strike footage. They show how forces sustain movement and support combat units, rather than merely how they destroy a target.

From Remote Control to Robotic Forces

The next stage of warfare is unlikely to resemble an army of humanoid machines replacing soldiers. A more plausible future is a force in which people fight alongside growing numbers of specialized robots, from reconnaissance aircraft to ground vehicles carrying ammunition, evacuating casualties, and supporting assaults.

That transition is already underway. Both Russian and Ukrainian forces are using ground robots for logistics, evacuation, and other battlefield tasks. In September, Ukraine’s Defense Ministry reported that its ground systems had completed more than 25,000 supply and evacuation missions in August alone. The figure is an official claim, not an independently audited total, but it illustrates how far the ambition extends beyond occasional demonstrations.

Over the next five years, the important change may be the organization of these machines into working formations. Aerial drones could scout ahead while ground robots move supplies and support troops. Humans would still set objectives and handle situations the machines cannot reliably interpret. The advantage would come from coordinating those different roles, not simply putting more unmanned vehicles on the battlefield.

Remote control, however, is not autonomy. A vehicle that needs continuous steering from an operator remains dependent on communications and human attention. Greater autonomy could allow machines to navigate, avoid obstacles, or complete limited tasks when a connection fails. None of those functions automatically makes a robot capable of independently identifying legitimate targets or deciding when to fire.

The likely result is a race between robotic capability and countermeasures. More machines may reduce the number of soldiers exposed on supply routes, but those machines will themselves become targets. Communications, batteries, maintenance, and replacement parts will remain constraints. Robotization moves some risks away from people; it does not abolish the costs of war.

Nor will inexpensive robots make heavy weapons obsolete. Small drones, armored vehicles, artillery, and aircraft perform different jobs. The stronger force will be the one that combines them effectively and changes that combination faster than its opponent.

Meridian should be judged against this prospect, not the grandeur of its language. Can Washington build systems that cooperate, survive disruption, and remain affordable enough to replace? Can its procurement machinery adapt as quickly as the battlefield demands?

The next war will not be won by whoever unveils the most impressive robot. It may favor the side that can lose machines without losing momentum, preserve human judgment without slowing every decision, and turn battlefield lessons into production before the enemy does. The real revolution is not a machine that looks like a soldier. It is an army that learns to fight differently because machines are now part of its ranks.

MORE ON THE TOPIC:

The post The Future of War: What the Battlefield Teaches and the Pentagon Wants to Buy appeared first on South Front.

  •  
  • ↗️
↗️

Russian Army Cuts Key Highway North of Orekhov

✇South Front
By: Anonymous1199

Click to see full-size image. (Russian Ministry of Defense)

In the Sumy direction, assault units of the “North” grouping have taken Malaya Rybitsa and continue to advance near Khoten, Ulanovo and Tolstodubovo. In the Kharkiv direction, Russian units are expanding control along the border; Grachyovka and Serdobino have come under control, and an attempt to break the encirclement ring east of Volchansk has been repelled. In the Zaporozhye direction, fighting continues near Orekhov, the highway between Omelnyk and Preobrazhenka has been cut, and an offensive is developing south of the Konka River. In the Slavyansk direction, Russian units are fighting heavy battles for Novopavlovka, Raipol, Sergeyevka and Belozerskoye, while on a number of sectors the front has entered the stage of a meeting engagement. Meanwhile, Czech Prime Minister Andrej Babiš stated that Europe would be better off directing 377 billion euros toward the reconstruction of Ukraine rather than the conflict.

Sumy direction  

Assault units of the “North” grouping continue to advance deeper into the Sumy region with the support of aviation and artillery. Ukrainian units have taken no active actions and have concentrated their efforts on attacks against civilian objects in the border regions.

In Sumy district, assault groups of Russian units have taken Malaya Rybitsa and continue to advance on other sectors. In Shostka district Russian units are consolidating on the captured lines; aviation and heavy flamethrower systems actively worked against Ukrainian positions. In Krasnopolye district there are no significant changes.  

Kharkiv direction  

Fierce fighting continues on all sectors of the front in the Kharkiv region. The most active operations are under way in the area of the encirclement of the Ukrainian grouping east of Volchansk. Ukrainian units have not abandoned attempts to break the encirclement ring from the outside.

In the Liptsy direction Russian assault troops are conducting small-arms fighting near Alisovka. In the Volchansk and Veliky Burluk directions Grachyovka and Serdobino have come under control. Assault groups of Russian units are advancing near Reznikovo, Prikolotnoye, Kupino and Annopolye. Overall progress reached up to 700 metres.

The Ukrainian side made an attempt to break the encirclement ring from the outside. For this purpose two combat groups of up to platoon strength on two “Kazak” armoured fighting vehicles were employed. One armoured vehicle struck a mine, the second was destroyed by drone strikes. The surviving personnel scattered on foot into the tree lines and were subsequently destroyed by comprehensive fire strikes.

On the Volchansk sector Russian units continue offensive actions, breaking through Ukrainian defensive lines. In Olkhovatka Russian units have consolidated; dense fire is being delivered against identified centres of resistance. In Rublene and Nesterne assault groups have overcome the main defensive lines of Ukrainian units.  

Zaporozhye direction  

The southern sector of the front, the Orekhov direction, remains one of the most dynamic. Fighting is under way on the northern and western outskirts of Orekhov. Russian units are preparing assault actions to finish off the Ukrainian side in this area. At the same time the envelopment of the Orekhov grouping continues. Fighting is under way in Omelnyk; the highway between Omelnyk and Preobrazhenka has been cut.

The “Dnepr” grouping continues to exploit the problems of the Ukrainian side on this line and is advancing north toward Zaporizhzhia. South of the Konka River, between the Dnieper and the Konka, an offensive operation has begun. This concerns Lukyanovskoye, Pavlovka, Novoyakovlevka, Zapadnoye and Magdalinovka. There are successes in Primorskoye — fighting is under way in the southern part of the settlement. Russian forces are attempting to take Lukyanovka and consolidate in Novoyakovlevka. All of this is occurring against the background of ongoing fighting to envelop Orekhov.

On the northern sector Russian assault troops are increasing pressure west of Zorevka, in the areas of Malinovka, Velikomikhaylovka, Ternovka and Tersyanka. Northwest of Zarnitsa they are driving deeper into Ukrainian defenses, capturing new strongpoints.

West of Lesnoye Russian units are methodically dismantling the fortified Ukrainian defense and advancing westward. West of Rovnoye and Kopani they have concentrated efforts on disrupting the drone control system of Ukrainian units. Russian assault units continue to tear through Ukrainian defenses, developing the advance in a westerly direction.  

Slavyansk direction  

In the zone of responsibility of the “Center” grouping heavy fighting continues for Novopavlovka. Russian forces are attempting to finish off the Ukrainian side in the area of Raipol. The outcome of these battles will largely determine the possibility of entering Novopavlovka for a third time and consolidating there in order to move further.

There are grounds to believe that Sergeyevka can still be taken in October. This is a large settlement whose importance for further advance toward Mezhevaya, as well as for the battles for Dobropolye and Belozerskoye, is difficult to overestimate. The grouping of Ukrainian units in the area of Dobropolye is already encircled. Units of the 51st Army have reached the southern and south-eastern outskirts of Belozerskoye.

Fighting is also under way near Raiskoye and Verolyubovka. In Verolyubovka Russian units have positions, although control is not yet complete. Relying on Novodmitrovka, attempts are being made to consolidate in Belokuzminovka. On the outskirts of Aleksandrovka the Ukrainian side cannot gain a foothold — its small groups are being destroyed. In the area of Krivaya Luka it also has no successes. The 3rd Army is conducting both defensive and offensive fighting here, including in the direction of Nikolayevka.

Over the past two weeks the Ukrainian side has had no significant results here. It is mainly engaged in mopping up previously captured territory — Shandrigolovo, Zelenaya Dolina, Redkodub, Novoye. The situation is turning into a meeting engagement. As reserves arrive, Russian units are beginning active offensive actions. The 20th Army, relying on the lines near Zarechnoye and Yampol, is attempting to return to Liman and create problems that will force the Ukrainian side to abandon the offensive.  

Conclusion  

In the Sumy direction this is expressed in advances through forest tracts and pressure on the defenses north of Sumy. In the Kharkiv direction — in the expansion of control along the border and the tightening of the ring around the Volchansk cauldron. In the Zaporozhye direction — in the envelopment of Orekhov and the cutting of supply routes. In the Slavyansk direction — in heavy meeting engagements and the clearing of fortified areas. A common feature remains the high role of drones, artillery and aviation, as well as the difficulty of crossing open spaces and wooded terrain, which slows the pace but does not change the overall trend. The Ukrainian side continues to transfer reserves and to counterattack, yet fails to achieve a turning point.

Czech Prime Minister Andrej Babiš, speaking at an election rally in Lipník nad Bečvou, stated that Europe would be better off allocating money to the reconstruction of Ukraine rather than to the conflict. “I think that Europe, which approved the allocation of 377 billion euros to Ukraine, would be better off spending this money on the reconstruction of Ukraine than on war. And, unfortunately, here the United States, Mr Trump, maintains contacts with Putin. Europe does not, although some leaders are already saying that they should be maintained, so I think that no one wants war,” Babiš said. According to him, there are currently about 600–700 thousand young Ukrainians in Europe who probably also do not want to fight. “Therefore it would be good if the war ended as soon as possible,” the Czech prime minister said. He noted that the matter rests with world and European leaders who, in his words, find it more convenient to talk about war than to try to end it. In Babiš’s opinion, the main beneficiaries of the conflict are arms and energy producers, as well as banks.  

_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

SouthFront: Analysis and Intelligence

NOW hosted at southfront.press

Previously, SouthFront: Analysis and Intelligence was at southfront.org.

The .org domain name had been blocked by the US (NATO) (https://southfront.press/southfront-org-blocked-by-u-s-controlled-global-internet-supervisor/) globally, outlawed and without any explanation

Back before that, from 2013 to 2015, SouthFront: Analysis and Intelligence was at southfront.com

SOUTHFRONT.PRESS

MORE ON THIS TOPIC:

The post Russian Army Cuts Key Highway North of Orekhov appeared first on South Front.

  •  
  • ↗️
↗️

Russian Army Cuts Key Highway North of Orekhov

✇South Front
By: Anonymous1199

Click to see full-size image. (Russian Ministry of Defense)

In the Sumy direction, assault units of the “North” grouping have taken Malaya Rybitsa and continue to advance near Khoten, Ulanovo and Tolstodubovo. In the Kharkiv direction, Russian units are expanding control along the border; Grachyovka and Serdobino have come under control, and an attempt to break the encirclement ring east of Volchansk has been repelled. In the Zaporozhye direction, fighting continues near Orekhov, the highway between Omelnyk and Preobrazhenka has been cut, and an offensive is developing south of the Konka River. In the Slavyansk direction, Russian units are fighting heavy battles for Novopavlovka, Raipol, Sergeyevka and Belozerskoye, while on a number of sectors the front has entered the stage of a meeting engagement. Meanwhile, Czech Prime Minister Andrej Babiš stated that Europe would be better off directing 377 billion euros toward the reconstruction of Ukraine rather than the conflict.

Sumy direction  

Assault units of the “North” grouping continue to advance deeper into the Sumy region with the support of aviation and artillery. Ukrainian units have taken no active actions and have concentrated their efforts on attacks against civilian objects in the border regions.

In Sumy district, assault groups of Russian units have taken Malaya Rybitsa and continue to advance on other sectors. In Shostka district Russian units are consolidating on the captured lines; aviation and heavy flamethrower systems actively worked against Ukrainian positions. In Krasnopolye district there are no significant changes.  

Kharkiv direction  

Fierce fighting continues on all sectors of the front in the Kharkiv region. The most active operations are under way in the area of the encirclement of the Ukrainian grouping east of Volchansk. Ukrainian units have not abandoned attempts to break the encirclement ring from the outside.

In the Liptsy direction Russian assault troops are conducting small-arms fighting near Alisovka. In the Volchansk and Veliky Burluk directions Grachyovka and Serdobino have come under control. Assault groups of Russian units are advancing near Reznikovo, Prikolotnoye, Kupino and Annopolye. Overall progress reached up to 700 metres.

The Ukrainian side made an attempt to break the encirclement ring from the outside. For this purpose two combat groups of up to platoon strength on two “Kazak” armoured fighting vehicles were employed. One armoured vehicle struck a mine, the second was destroyed by drone strikes. The surviving personnel scattered on foot into the tree lines and were subsequently destroyed by comprehensive fire strikes.

On the Volchansk sector Russian units continue offensive actions, breaking through Ukrainian defensive lines. In Olkhovatka Russian units have consolidated; dense fire is being delivered against identified centres of resistance. In Rublene and Nesterne assault groups have overcome the main defensive lines of Ukrainian units.  

Zaporozhye direction  

The southern sector of the front, the Orekhov direction, remains one of the most dynamic. Fighting is under way on the northern and western outskirts of Orekhov. Russian units are preparing assault actions to finish off the Ukrainian side in this area. At the same time the envelopment of the Orekhov grouping continues. Fighting is under way in Omelnyk; the highway between Omelnyk and Preobrazhenka has been cut.

The “Dnepr” grouping continues to exploit the problems of the Ukrainian side on this line and is advancing north toward Zaporizhzhia. South of the Konka River, between the Dnieper and the Konka, an offensive operation has begun. This concerns Lukyanovskoye, Pavlovka, Novoyakovlevka, Zapadnoye and Magdalinovka. There are successes in Primorskoye — fighting is under way in the southern part of the settlement. Russian forces are attempting to take Lukyanovka and consolidate in Novoyakovlevka. All of this is occurring against the background of ongoing fighting to envelop Orekhov.

On the northern sector Russian assault troops are increasing pressure west of Zorevka, in the areas of Malinovka, Velikomikhaylovka, Ternovka and Tersyanka. Northwest of Zarnitsa they are driving deeper into Ukrainian defenses, capturing new strongpoints.

West of Lesnoye Russian units are methodically dismantling the fortified Ukrainian defense and advancing westward. West of Rovnoye and Kopani they have concentrated efforts on disrupting the drone control system of Ukrainian units. Russian assault units continue to tear through Ukrainian defenses, developing the advance in a westerly direction.  

Slavyansk direction  

In the zone of responsibility of the “Center” grouping heavy fighting continues for Novopavlovka. Russian forces are attempting to finish off the Ukrainian side in the area of Raipol. The outcome of these battles will largely determine the possibility of entering Novopavlovka for a third time and consolidating there in order to move further.

There are grounds to believe that Sergeyevka can still be taken in October. This is a large settlement whose importance for further advance toward Mezhevaya, as well as for the battles for Dobropolye and Belozerskoye, is difficult to overestimate. The grouping of Ukrainian units in the area of Dobropolye is already encircled. Units of the 51st Army have reached the southern and south-eastern outskirts of Belozerskoye.

Fighting is also under way near Raiskoye and Verolyubovka. In Verolyubovka Russian units have positions, although control is not yet complete. Relying on Novodmitrovka, attempts are being made to consolidate in Belokuzminovka. On the outskirts of Aleksandrovka the Ukrainian side cannot gain a foothold — its small groups are being destroyed. In the area of Krivaya Luka it also has no successes. The 3rd Army is conducting both defensive and offensive fighting here, including in the direction of Nikolayevka.

Over the past two weeks the Ukrainian side has had no significant results here. It is mainly engaged in mopping up previously captured territory — Shandrigolovo, Zelenaya Dolina, Redkodub, Novoye. The situation is turning into a meeting engagement. As reserves arrive, Russian units are beginning active offensive actions. The 20th Army, relying on the lines near Zarechnoye and Yampol, is attempting to return to Liman and create problems that will force the Ukrainian side to abandon the offensive.  

Conclusion  

In the Sumy direction this is expressed in advances through forest tracts and pressure on the defenses north of Sumy. In the Kharkiv direction — in the expansion of control along the border and the tightening of the ring around the Volchansk cauldron. In the Zaporozhye direction — in the envelopment of Orekhov and the cutting of supply routes. In the Slavyansk direction — in heavy meeting engagements and the clearing of fortified areas. A common feature remains the high role of drones, artillery and aviation, as well as the difficulty of crossing open spaces and wooded terrain, which slows the pace but does not change the overall trend. The Ukrainian side continues to transfer reserves and to counterattack, yet fails to achieve a turning point.

Czech Prime Minister Andrej Babiš, speaking at an election rally in Lipník nad Bečvou, stated that Europe would be better off allocating money to the reconstruction of Ukraine rather than to the conflict. “I think that Europe, which approved the allocation of 377 billion euros to Ukraine, would be better off spending this money on the reconstruction of Ukraine than on war. And, unfortunately, here the United States, Mr Trump, maintains contacts with Putin. Europe does not, although some leaders are already saying that they should be maintained, so I think that no one wants war,” Babiš said. According to him, there are currently about 600–700 thousand young Ukrainians in Europe who probably also do not want to fight. “Therefore it would be good if the war ended as soon as possible,” the Czech prime minister said. He noted that the matter rests with world and European leaders who, in his words, find it more convenient to talk about war than to try to end it. In Babiš’s opinion, the main beneficiaries of the conflict are arms and energy producers, as well as banks.  

_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

SouthFront: Analysis and Intelligence

NOW hosted at southfront.press

Previously, SouthFront: Analysis and Intelligence was at southfront.org.

The .org domain name had been blocked by the US (NATO) (https://southfront.press/southfront-org-blocked-by-u-s-controlled-global-internet-supervisor/) globally, outlawed and without any explanation

Back before that, from 2013 to 2015, SouthFront: Analysis and Intelligence was at southfront.com

SOUTHFRONT.PRESS

MORE ON THIS TOPIC:

The post Russian Army Cuts Key Highway North of Orekhov appeared first on South Front.

  •  
  • ↗️
↗️

Ukrainian Forces Launch Non-Stop Attacks in Slavyansk Direction  

✇South Front
By: Anonymous1199

Click to see full-size image. (Russian Ministry of Defense)

In the Sumy direction, Russian assault units of the “North” grouping continue to advance deeper into the region with heavy fighting, having taken Malaya Rybitsa and expanding positions near Tolstodubovo and Ulanovo. In the Kharkiv direction, Russian troops are expanding control along the border on the Liptsy sector, have taken Vysokaya Yaruga and are tightening the ring around the Volchansk cauldron, where Rublene, Nesterne and Shabelnoye have come under control. In the Kupyansk direction, Russian motor-rifle units are advancing inside the city and attacking Kupyansk-Uzlovoy; fighting continues for Kovsharovka and Novoosinovo. In the Slavyansk direction, fierce fighting is under way in the residential areas of Nikolayevka; Russian assault groups are clearing the industrial zone of Rai-Aleksandrovka and expanding the zone of control between Markovo and Fyodorovka. In the concluding part, EU Commissioner for Enlargement Marta Kos stated that Ukraine will not be able to join the EU on 1 January 2027, as there are no discounts or privileges in the process.

Sumy direction  

On all sectors of the front assault units of the “North” grouping continue to advance deeper into the Sumy region with heavy fighting. The Ukrainian side has taken no active actions and is strengthening the defenses of Sumy. Assault units of the 15th Tank Regiment drove Ukrainian servicemen of the 119th Separate Territorial Defense Brigade and the 21st Separate Mechanized Brigade out of Malaya Rybitsa.

North of the regional centre, positional fighting is under way in the areas of Mogritsa, Kiyanitsa, Pisarevka and Khoten. On the sector near Udanovo and Tolstodubovo Russian units are expanding their positions. Earlier Tolstodubovo in the Glukhov direction and Ulanovo were taken. Russian troops are gradually pushing Ukrainian units off the salient that had deeply penetrated Bryansk and Kursk regions.

In Sumy district, assault groups of Russian units continue to advance near Khoten. In Shostka district Russian assault troops are clearing tree lines near Tolstodubovo. In Krasnopolye district TOS-1A “Solntsepyok” systems of the “North” grouping actively worked against Ukrainian positions.  

Kharkiv direction  

Russian troops continue to expand the line of control westward along the border on the Liptsy sector. In the course of a successful advance fighters of the “North” grouping drove Ukrainian units out of Vysokaya Yaruga, after which Russian troops advanced, crossing the highway into the area of Bugayevka.

In the area of the Volchansk cauldron Russian troops continue to tighten the ring; Rublene, Nesterne and Shabelnoye have been taken. Fighting is under way for Lukashovo, Reznikovo, Serdobino, Kupino and Grachyovka. In the Liptsy direction Russian assault troops took Vysokaya Yaruga and are advancing near Alisovka. In the Volchansk and Veliky Burluk directions Russian troops took Rublene and Nesterne and continued to tighten the encirclement ring. There is progress near Varvarovka, Lobanovka and Prikolotnoye. Overall advance reached up to 1,000 meters.

Some time ago reports arrived of Russian units entering Vysokaya Yaruga. Later this was confirmed by footage showing fighters of the “North” grouping raising state flags in various parts of the village. Russian units are now developing attacks toward neighboring Alisovka. Its capture will make it possible to take the large forest tracts located on this sector and push Ukrainian units back into the fields on the approaches to Bolshiye Prokhody.  

Kupyansk direction  

On the Kupyansk sector motor-rifle units of Russian troops are advancing inside the city in a southerly and south-westerly direction. On the Kupyansk-Uzlovoy sector fighters of Russian units continue to attack from the north and from the east.

Further south fighting continues for Kovsharovka: the village is half under the control of Russian units, yet scattered groups of the Ukrainian side remain present in the area of multi-story buildings. Fighting is under way for Novoosinovo, where clashes continue for the center of the settlement. East of Glushkovka Russian troops continue to defend the pocket and strongpoints located north-east of the village; the positions of the Ukrainian side and of Russian units here are intermingled.

Fighting continues for the bridgehead near Oskol and in the area of the Kupyansk agglomeration. Clashes persist near Novoosinovo and on the approaches to Glushkovka. The Ukrainian side is undertaking counter-attacking actions on the sector between Zapadnoye and Kondrashovka. North of Kupyansk Ukrainian units are attempting to disrupt the supply of Russian groups operating on the right bank of the Oskol.  

Slavyansk direction  

Fierce fighting continues in the residential areas near Nikolayevka. From here and from Starodubovka the Ukrainian side constantly attempts to send reserves for attacks toward Krivaya Luka and Rai-Aleksandrovka and conducts sorties into the nearest tree lines. There is data on the work of Russian assault groups inside Nikolayevka itself.

Fighting is under way for Piskunovka. Part of the territory is under the control of Russian units. The Ukrainian side has not abandoned attempts to penetrate Krivaya Luka, including from the river. Meeting engagements are under way near Rai-Aleksandrovka. Ukrainian units have not abandoned attempts to infiltrate this settlement. On the southern side of Rai-Aleksandrovka, in the industrial zone, work is under way to clear the territory.

Clearing of the territory near Lipovka also continues. Here the Ukrainian side is actively moving along the perimeter from point to point, which complicates rapid elimination. In the area of Orekhovatka Ukrainian units have increased pressure on Russian positions with the aim of breaking through toward Rai-Aleksandrovka. The Ukrainian side regularly conducts counterattacks toward Vasilyevskaya Pustosh, Vasyutinskoye and Pershomaryevka. Russian units have expanded the zone of control in the north between Markovo and Fyodorovka.

On the Seversk direction meeting engagements are under way near Malinovka and Vasilyevskaya Pustosh. Ukrainian units are attempting to enter Rai-Aleksandrovka from the west; Ukrainian sabotage and reconnaissance groups are also recorded further south near Lipovka, yet they fail to consolidate. Further north the Ukrainian side is counterattacking from the direction of Starodubovka; fighting is under way in Piskunovka. In Krivaya Luka Russian fighters are destroying Ukrainian sabotage and reconnaissance groups.

In the Krasny Liman direction units are in deep defense along the Zherebets River, in Zarechnoye and Yampol, grinding down elite Ukrainian infantry units. 

Conclusion  

In the Sumy direction this is expressed in advances through forest tracts and pressure on the defences north of Sumy. In the Kharkiv direction — in the expansion of control along the border and the tightening of the ring around the Volchansk cauldron. In the Kupyansk direction — in the advance through urban areas and fighting for key nodes. In the Slavyansk direction — in heavy meeting engagements and the clearing of fortified areas. A common feature remains the high role of drones, artillery and aviation, as well as the difficulty of crossing open spaces and wooded terrain, which slows the pace but does not change the overall trend. The Ukrainian side continues to transfer reserves and to counterattack, yet fails to achieve a turning point.

EU Commissioner for Enlargement Marta Kos stated that Ukraine will not be able to join the European Union on 1 January 2027, as there are no discounts or privileges in the process. “The date of 1 January 2027 was set by President Volodymyr Zelensky. Accession is based on the principle of merit: it is obvious that this date is impossible,” Kos said in an interview with the newspaper Corriere della Sera. According to her, in Kyiv and other countries Ukraine’s accession to the EU is viewed as a security guarantee. She noted that the conflict in Ukraine has changed geopolitics in Europe. “And one of the consequences is that enlargement has once again become a priority — not only for Ukraine, but also for other countries,” the commissioner stated. Kos emphasized that there will be no privileges or discounts for Ukraine in the accession process; however, according to her, the EU must take into account the situation in which the country finds itself. “In the accession process there are neither privileges nor discounts, but we must take into account that Ukraine is waging a war for survival, and therefore it is also our duty to help it,” she said, expressing the hope that as many negotiation chapters as possible with Ukraine will be opened by the end of the year.  

_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

SouthFront: Analysis and Intelligence

NOW hosted at southfront.press

Previously, SouthFront: Analysis and Intelligence was at southfront.org.

The .org domain name had been blocked by the US (NATO) (https://southfront.press/southfront-org-blocked-by-u-s-controlled-global-internet-supervisor/) globally, outlawed and without any explanation

Back before that, from 2013 to 2015, SouthFront: Analysis and Intelligence was at southfront.com

SOUTHFRONT.PRESS

MORE ON THIS TOPIC:

The post Ukrainian Forces Launch Non-Stop Attacks in Slavyansk Direction   appeared first on South Front.

  •  
  • ↗️
❌