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How Gaza changed Europe, exposing cracks that grow bigger by the week | Shada Islam

15 October 2026 at 05:00

Solidarity with Palestine’s suffering is punished but MEPs allow a witch-hunt of European Muslims

For three painful years, Israel’s genocidal war in Gaza, in retaliation for the Hamas terror attacks on 7 October 2023, has killed more than 74,000 Palestinians, wounded thousands more and reduced most of the territory to rubble. It has changed views of Israel across the world, increased support for Palestine and raised questions about US power.

Europe’s failure to hold Israel’s government to account has cost it global credibility and influence. But I fear something even more consequential than that: Gaza is changing Europe itself.

Shada Islam is a Brussels-based commentator on EU affairs. She runs New Horizons project, a strategy, analysis and advisory company

Do you have an opinion on the issues raised in this article? If you would like to submit a response of up to 300 words by email to be considered for publication in our letters section, please click here.

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© Photograph: Mouneb Taim/Anadolu/Getty Images

© Photograph: Mouneb Taim/Anadolu/Getty Images

© Photograph: Mouneb Taim/Anadolu/Getty Images

Zelensky e von der Leyen saúdam nova etapa na adesão à UE

14 October 2026 at 00:11
Clusters 2 e 3 — mercado interno e competitividade — foram abertos esta terça-feira. Apenas agricultura e coesão e política ambiental ficam por iniciar.

© OLIVIER MATTHYS/EPA

O início formal destas negociações foi possível devido à mudança de Governo na Hungria

The EU’s latest mad plan to save itself

By: A A
13 October 2026 at 22:16

Ursula von der Leyen has the answer. Borrow even more money. Borrow like there’s no tomorrow.

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Contact us: info@strategic-culture.su

The most remarkable thing about the rapid demise of the U.S. is that when it hits the bottom of the ocean floor economically, it will be in a better state than the EU. The panic among EU leaders, in particular Ursula von der Leyen, is breathtaking. Barely a week passes before she makes another crackpot policy announcement, gives herself a salary increase, or makes a statement about needing to give even more money to Ukraine. But in recent months these announcements have become more radical and existential, and we are seeing a new dawn now in the EU where the only solution to cover up the feral spending and borrowing is to fabricate a war with Russia and then blame Putin for the whole fiasco.

Every now and again we get a sober reminder about the economic situation of the U.S., EU and Russia. The recent news that Putin is going to sell around 2 million tonnes of diesel oil to “global markets” (as U.S. media phrases it), the lion’s share going to the U.S. before, during and just after the midterm elections in a bid to stabilise the price to help Trump. We will have to assume that countries who buy some of their diesel from the U.S. will continue doing so, but it might, in fact, be Russian oil.

There’s a lot of fake news buzzing around originating from Trump, who likes to distract journalists away from the top issues. It’s hard to see how the American public will respond to Trump’s latest decision to buy Russian diesel, but it’s hard to see this being a solution to the global oil crisis, let alone Trump’s record-low ratings. Will Trump really go ahead with a new wave of strikes on Iran after the midterms, as he has said? Or is it that his own intelligence agencies have picked up information that Iran is poised for a massive strike, and so therefore he is obliged to send even more troops, plus a carrier, to the region?

Regardless of how France and Germany get their diesel in the coming weeks, after Trump forced these governments to dip into their own reserves by threatening a U.S. export ban, it’s hard to see how the Achilles heel of most EU economies – crude oil products – can still be controlled by Moscow. While intellectually challenged figures like Mark Rutte make such stupid comments about how Russia could never win a war with NATO based on comparative GDP data, this latest move might be a huge wake-up call for Macron and Merz, the latter facing dismally low poll ratings. How do you continue to fund a war in Ukraine with the ‘frenemy’ relationship pushed to breaking point, such as is the case now with the U.S. having to buy diesel from Russia? EU countries loathe Putin, as the one hope they had to magically breathe new life into EU economies by taking Ukraine under its wing was shattered when Russian forces invaded. Putin is everything they are not. Nobody can deny Putin is a leader – the very thing that is so desperately lacking in EU countries. Leadership.

But the situation now has reached farce. With a global diesel crisis brought about by Trump’s war with Iran, EU countries are expected to buy diesel on the international market, topped up by Russia. In fact, buying oil from your enemy is nothing new. Countries have been doing this for decades. Even in Syria, we saw terror groups in the north-east of the country take over the oil infrastructure and then sell oil back to the Assad regime.

It’s hard to see how EU countries will draw a line in the sand between their geostrategic military objectives and their very realistic need for a stable oil supply. But in the midst of this chaos, Ursula von der Leyen has the answer. Borrow even more money. Borrow like there’s no tomorrow. Her latest proposal is to expand the current seven-year EU budget to 2 trillion euros, and there is only one way this can be achieved, as member states are never going to cough up more for the EU experiment. She will be forced to borrow from international banks to replace a previous loan of 750 billion euros for COVID. This is the solution for failing economies. Where once for so many years EU apparatchiks would defend the EU’s failure to implement its own rule book, in preference for constantly adopting new legislation, now this seems to have been replaced by ‘create a panic about Russia and make the EU a sort of executive of NATO without a single trace of democratic virtue’. Von der Leyen doesn’t stipulate what this massive increase is for, but we can assume some of it will be siphoned off for Ukraine. Madness on steroids. But hidden in the text is a new series of taxes which the EU itself could impose on individuals, and so in the smoke-and-mirrors confusion we see there is a back-door way to start taxing EU citizens, something Brussels never touched before. How long has the whole project got?

Burnham says ‘public will be the boss’ in any future decision about closer relationship with the EU – as it happened

12 October 2026 at 18:34

The prime minister tells MPs the next summit with the EU will be held on 20 November

Burnham to urge MPs to embrace closer ties with EU

Zia Yusuf, Reform UK’s home affairs spokesperson, is speaking now. He started his speech with an account of a 73-year-old woman dying in North Wales after having to wait 23 hours for an ambulance, and he sought to link this to immigration.

He said:

The Royal College of Emergency Medicine estimates that 15,000 people across Britain died last year due to excess wait times for emergency treatment. That’s 300 people a week, 300 lives destroyed, 300 families devastated.

And that number has increased tenfold over the last decade. This is a moral outrage, and it is a direct result of decisions made by Tory and Labour governments.

I don’t think that’s because he wants to have a fight over the European Union. I think that’s because he knows what we’re talking about today impacts hard in what is known as the red wall.

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© Photograph: House of Commons/UK Parliament/PA

© Photograph: House of Commons/UK Parliament/PA

© Photograph: House of Commons/UK Parliament/PA

Bonus energia: perché 14 miliardi finiranno comunque per alzare le bollette della luce

11 October 2026 at 14:32

A fine settembre, nella cornice dello Soteu, Ursula von der Leyen ha messo in evidenza il legame inscindibile tra sicurezza energetica e costi economici. Per un insieme di Paesi privo di materie prime, una crisi geopolitica come quella scatenata dalle tensioni nel Golfo Persico fa emergere con forza questa interdipendenza.

Agli Stati membri si chiede di elettrificare il più possibile per ridurre la dipendenza da gas e combustibili fossili, ma l’assenza di strumenti vincolanti porta il sistema energetico nazionale italiano ad accusare storture peculiari.

Con la Manovra di Bilancio 2027, grazie alla clausola di salvaguardia, l’esecutivo si appresta a mettere in campo circa 14 miliardi di euro in bonus energia e misure di contenimento. Un’imponente dote finanziaria che, tuttavia, non si tradurrà in un reale calo delle bollette per le famiglie e le imprese.

Il quadro europeo

La Commissione ha legato a più riprese la sicurezza energetica ai costi economici delle importazioni, ricordando come gli shock geopolitici siano costati all’Unione oltre 90 miliardi di euro in acquisti di fonti fossili. Per affrancarsi da questa dipendenza, Bruxelles ha fissato l’obiettivo di raddoppiarne la quota nel mix energetico entro il 2040, stimando un risparmio di 260 miliardi di euro all’anno.

Tuttavia, queste ambizioni non sono state accompagnate da alcuna dotazione finanziaria di bilancio né da atti vincolanti a sostegno dei consumatori. A complicare il quadro si aggiunge la recente revisione al ribasso degli obiettivi Net Zero e del calendario sulle emissioni: una mossa politica che concede ossigeno ai produttori di auto a combustione interna, ma che rischia di rallentare ulteriormente gli investimenti sull’elettrico.

In parallelo, il meccanismo europeo di carbon pricing (Ets) fa gravare i costi della CO2 sull’energia elettrica, esentando ancora per gran parte i combustibili tradizionali e rendendo il vettore pulito paradossalmente più caro.

Il caso Italia: la fiscalità che punisce chi elettrifica

Se l’Europa offre un quadro normativo frammentato, la struttura tariffaria italiana accentua la distorsione. Come evidenziato dalle analisi di ECCO, che riportiamo per semplicità in tabella, in Italia l’energia elettrica paga tasse e oneri sproporzionati rispetto al gas e ai carburanti tradizionali.

Ambito d’uso Vettore Elettrico Vettore fossile Impatto dell’imposizione
Utenze domestiche Fino a 0,0873 euro al kWh (fisco e oneri) 0,0231 euro al kWh sul gas naturale L’elettricità paga 3-4 volte più del gas
Pmi e industria Fino a 0,1119 euro al kWh in bassa tensione 0,0057 euro al kWh sul gas naturale L’elettricità paga fino a 20 volte più del gas
Trasporti e ricariche Da 0,141 a 0,398 euro al kWh per ricarica pubblica 0,089 euro al kWh per la benzina L’elettrico paga fino a 4 volte più dei fossili

Questo fenomeno deriva dalla scelta di continuare a scaricare oltre l’80% degli oneri di sistema per il finanziamento delle fonti rinnovabili unicamente sulle bollette elettriche, nonostante l’Ue consigli di andare in direzione opposta. Di conseguenza, tecnologie ad altissima efficienza come le pompe di calore o i veicoli elettrici vedono azzerato gran parte del risparmio economico potenziale a causa del peso fiscale applicato al kilowattora.

A soffrirne maggiormente è il tessuto produttivo nazionale. Come già denunciato dai rappresentanti di Confindustria a giugno in un convegno sugli Ets, la competitività delle industrie che scelgono di rimanere in Italia e di non delocalizzare riesce a mantenere performance accettabili pur sostenendo una doppia tassazione energetica: quella sulla corrente elettrica e quella sulle quote di carbonio necessarie alla produzione.

Deficit sopra il 3% e i limiti dei 14 miliardi in Manovra

Lo stato delle finanze pubbliche italiane rende ancora più difficile la gestione dell’emergenza. Con il rapporto deficit/Pil che ha di nuovo superato la soglia del 3%, l’esecutivo punta a sfruttare l’ipotesi di uno scostamento di bilancio fino allo 0,3% del Pil, facendo perno sui margini di flessibilità concessi dalla clausola di salvaguardia nazionale per la difesa e la sicurezza energetica.

Finanziare in deficit 14 miliardi di euro per tamponare il rialzo delle bollette sarà una misura necessaria per evitare il collasso sociale, ma è inutile negarlo: è un intervento di breve respiro. C’è bisogno di una maggiore trasparenza nella gestione della liquidità derivata dagli Ets, da cui perdiamo quasi 9 miliardi; serve una riforma organica della fiscalità energetica che riequilibri il carico fiscale tra fonti fossili ed elettricità, rendendo l’uso dei fossili davvero svantaggioso.

Impiegare risorse pubbliche per congelare temporaneamente i prezzi rischia solo di appesantire il debito, senza risolvere il nodo della dipendenza dalle materie prime esterne e senza garantire reali ribassi in per cittadini e imprese.

Europe’s major rivers are drying up, threatening energy security and trade

10 October 2026 at 05:00

This past summer has been, for Europe, “the summer of truth,” as Ursula von der Leyen said a couple of weeks ago in her State of the Union debate speech. The president of the European Commission was warning about the consequences of global warming, which has again struck the continent hard. And the Copernicus Climate Change Service quantifies this sweltering summer in its seasonal assessment, published on October 2. The season in Europe was marked by heatwaves that were unusually intense and early (the first arrived in May). Across the continent this was the third-warmest summer on record. But focusing on western Europe, the summer of 2026 was the worst on record. It surpassed 2003, which shocked many EU countries with tens of thousands of deaths linked to extreme heat.

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© Christoph Reichwein (DPA/AP)

A cargo barge on the Rhine as it passed through the German city of Duisburg at the end of July.

Von der Leyen Offers Extra Year on EU Methane Rules as Energy Costs Bite

7 October 2026 at 08:46

The European Commission is preparing to give fossil-fuel exporters another year of flexibility under the EU’s methane regime as Brussels responds to high energy prices, pressure on European refineries and concerns over security of supply.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has announced an additional year of flexibility for energy exporters facing new EU methane requirements, marking the latest adjustment to climate legislation as Brussels attempts to contain rising energy costs.

Addressing the European Parliament in Strasbourg on Tuesday, von der Leyen said Europe remained exposed to high energy prices and volatile international fossil-fuel markets and confirmed that exporters would receive “one more year” to prepare for the methane rules.

She also announced a strategic dialogue with the European refining sector aimed at reducing costs and protecting supplies, according to the Commission’s published remarks.

The announcement affects a regulation that has increasingly become an energy-security issue rather than solely an emissions policy.

The EU’s Methane Regulation, adopted in 2024, introduced progressively stricter requirements for companies supplying oil, natural gas and coal to the European market. Importers have already been required to provide information about the origin of fuel and the systems used to measure and reduce methane emissions.

A more demanding stage was due from January 2027. Importers would have to demonstrate that fuel supplied under contracts concluded or renewed since August 2024 came from producers operating monitoring, reporting and verification systems equivalent to EU standards.

The rules are technically complex because European importers do not always buy directly from producers. Gas and oil may pass through traders, hubs, blending systems and several contractual relationships before reaching Europe.

The Commission’s own guidance for importers acknowledges those difficulties, particularly where companies must trace production information through complicated supply chains.

EU Today highlighted the problem in July, when an International Energy Agency assessment raised concerns that the rules could restrict Europe’s available oil supply. The dispute has since intensified because European fuel markets have become considerably tighter.

That pressure can also be seen in the cost of imported energy. EU Today reported last month that the value of EU petroleum imports had risen by 55.8 per cent in the second quarter of 2026 even though the physical volume purchased increased by only 1.2 per cent.

Von der Leyen’s intervention therefore comes against a different market background from the one in which the methane legislation was originally adopted.

The Commission has not abandoned its objective of reducing methane emissions from fossil-fuel production. Methane remains one of the most powerful greenhouse gases, and the regulation is intended to use the size of the European energy market to influence production standards outside the EU.

Instead, Brussels is attempting to adjust implementation so that regulatory requirements do not further restrict supply at a time of elevated energy prices.

The precise legal form of the additional year of flexibility has not yet been detailed in von der Leyen’s announcement. Existing requirements remain contained in Regulation (EU) 2024/1787, meaning that changes to deadlines or enforcement will have to be translated into the appropriate legal or administrative measures.

The Commission had already moved towards greater flexibility earlier this year. In July it issued recommendations designed to clarify contractual arrangements and advised national authorities on the application of penalties to importers while security-of-supply concerns persisted.

The broader problem is European energy competitiveness.

Von der Leyen told Parliament that Brussels intends to begin a strategic dialogue with refineries. European refining capacity has contracted over the longer term, leaving the continent more dependent on imported diesel and other finished petroleum products when individual plants close or external supply routes are disrupted.

The Commission is also expected to propose measures aimed at increasing electricity’s share of European energy consumption as part of its attempt to reduce dependence on imported fossil fuels.

The latest methane adjustment therefore fits a wider shift in Brussels. Climate targets remain formally intact, but implementation is increasingly being examined alongside energy prices, industrial competitiveness and the security of physical supplies.

The extra year gives exporters additional time. It also gives the Commission another year to resolve a question that has become much more urgent in 2026: how far Europe can tighten conditions on imported energy while remaining heavily dependent on those imports.

Ukraine’s EU Reform Record: Why Progress Slows Where Political Power Is at Stake

4 October 2026 at 09:53

Ukraine’s record on reform during Russia’s war is stronger than much recent criticism suggests. By September, Kyiv had completed 84 of 95 milestones due under the Ukraine Plan. Yet progress on a smaller group of rule-of-law commitments has been strikingly weaker. The difference between the two tells Brussels much about where Ukraine’s European transformation is encountering resistance.

Ukraine’s reform record currently produces two figures that appear difficult to reconcile.

Under the Ukraine Plan, Kyiv had completed 84 of the 95 milestones due by late September — around 88 per cent. The result was strong enough for EU governments to approve another payment of almost €3 billion under the Ukraine Facility.

Three months earlier, however, a coalition of Ukrainian organisations monitoring ten rule-of-law and anti-corruption commitments agreed with Brussels had awarded progress just 15 points out of 100.

Neither figure is wrong. They measure different programmes.

The first covers a broad reform and investment agenda extending from the judiciary and financial markets to energy, agriculture, transport, human capital and the business environment. The second examines a deliberately narrow collection of reforms concerning prosecutors, criminal investigations, anti-corruption agencies and judicial governance.

Put together, they raise a more useful question than whether Ukraine is “reforming” or “not reforming”.

Why has a country capable of delivering most of a demanding EU programme during a major war found this particular group of reforms so much harder to complete?

Russia’s aggression provides part of the answer. Ukraine has been attempting an institutional transformation while mobilising its population, financing its armed forces, repairing infrastructure and keeping a functioning state under repeated Russian missile and drone attacks. No previous EU candidate has operated under comparable conditions.

But the ten reforms where progress has been weakest have something else in common. Most concern institutions that can investigate senior officials, prosecute corruption, scrutinise appointments or otherwise place limits on the exercise of political authority.

That is what makes the comparison important.

A strong overall record

The wider reform record should not be understated.

When the European Commission released €2.9 billion to Ukraine on 2 October, it specifically credited Kyiv with implementing reforms covering the judiciary, financial markets, human capital, the business environment, energy, transport, agriculture and the green transition.

Total EU support provided under the Ukraine Plan has now exceeded €32 billion. More than €17 billion in further budget support remains potentially available during 2026, provided Ukraine fulfils the corresponding conditions.

The money is particularly important because the Ukrainian state is directing such a large share of its own resources towards defence. European financing helps keep the civilian state operating while Ukraine fights Russia.

The Ukraine Facility has therefore become more than an aid mechanism. It gives Brussels a means of measuring reform against specific commitments and releasing money when they are met.

That system has generally worked.

It also makes the areas where progress is weaker much easier to identify.

The 15/100 assessment published in June concerned ten priorities agreed in December 2025 between Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos and then deputy prime minister Taras Kachka. The score came from Ukrainian civil society, not the European Commission, and cannot legitimately be presented as Ukraine’s overall EU reform score.

It had nevertheless risen only six points from an assessment of nine out of 100 in April.

Among the unfinished commitments were changes to criminal procedure affecting high-level corruption cases, stronger guarantees for the independence and effectiveness of NABU and SAPO, reform of the State Bureau of Investigation, new arrangements surrounding the Prosecutor General, competitive recruitment within the prosecution service and further changes to judicial governance.

These are among the most difficult reforms Ukraine has undertaken since 2014 because they concern who has the authority to investigate whom.

The July 2025 episode changed the argument

The events surrounding NABU and SAPO in July 2025 remain central to understanding why Brussels is paying such close attention.

Ukraine had spent years building a specialised anti-corruption system intended to make investigations of senior political figures less vulnerable to interference from the conventional prosecutorial hierarchy.

NABU conducts investigations. SAPO provides specialised prosecution. The High Anti-Corruption Court hears the cases.

The system has never been free from political controversy, nor has its performance been beyond criticism. But its independence became an important part of Ukraine’s relationship with the EU and other international partners.

Then, in July 2025, parliament passed legislation placing NABU and SAPO under substantially greater authority of the politically appointed Prosecutor General. Zelenskyy signed it.

The decision produced an unusually sharp reaction inside Ukraine. Demonstrators took to the streets despite martial law, while European partners made clear that the legislation threatened reforms regarded as fundamental to the country’s European integration.

As EU Today reported during the crisis, the dispute went far beyond the technical division of powers between prosecutors and investigators.

Kyiv reversed course within days. Parliament restored the independence of the two bodies.

The reversal demonstrated that Ukraine’s political system still contained powerful corrective forces. Civil society mobilised, public opposition was visible and international pressure had an effect.

Yet the episode also established that the independence of institutions created specifically to investigate high-level corruption could still become the subject of direct political intervention.

That changed the context in which subsequent reform commitments are being judged.

The European Commission’s 2025 report on Ukraine recorded both sides of the episode. It acknowledged the restoration of NABU and SAPO independence, while warning that undue pressure on anti-corruption agencies remained a concern.

The Commission also identified practical weaknesses. NABU still required better access to timely and impartial forensic examinations, while SAPO needed stronger powers in cases involving members of parliament.

This is why simply retaining NABU and SAPO is no longer sufficient evidence that this part of the reform process is secure. Brussels is looking at whether they can operate when investigations become politically difficult.

Follow the institutions

The same issue appears elsewhere.

Ukraine agreed to review the procedure for appointing and dismissing the Prosecutor General, drawing on European standards and the Venice Commission. It also committed itself to transparent and competitive recruitment for senior positions throughout the prosecution service.

The significance is obvious. The Prosecutor General occupies a pivotal position in the Ukrainian criminal-justice system. The method by which that office is filled — and the circumstances in which its occupant can be removed — affect the credibility of every politically sensitive prosecution beneath it.

Progress has been slow.

There is a similar problem with the State Bureau of Investigation, which handles cases involving senior officials and law-enforcement personnel. Kyiv agreed to an independent assessment of the bureau followed by reform of its legal and institutional framework.

Again, the issue is not administrative tidiness. An agency responsible for investigating state officials has little value as a check on government if its own leadership or investigative decisions are susceptible to political influence.

Criminal procedure provides another example.

Ukraine committed itself to changing provisions under which corruption proceedings can eventually be closed because deadlines for pre-trial investigations have expired, as well as addressing limitation periods for corruption offences.

Draft legislation has appeared. Bills No. 15333 and 15334 were registered in parliament, and NABU and the Ministry of Justice have worked on amendments.

But the process has taken months.

For a simple criminal case, procedural deadlines may appear an obscure legal question. Top-level corruption investigations are different. They can involve offshore structures, large quantities of financial evidence, foreign jurisdictions and prolonged litigation. If the clock eventually disposes of a case that investigators and prosecutors cannot bring to judgment quickly enough, the anti-corruption architecture fails at the point where it is supposed to produce results.

The same pattern is visible in judicial reform and the new Anti-Corruption Strategy for 2026–2030. Work is taking place, legislation is being prepared and institutions are consulting one another. Some changes have been completed.

Others remain somewhere between agreement and implementation.

This is precisely the stage of accession at which that distinction begins to count.

When Ukraine and Moldova moved further into the EU accession process, the significance of the Fundamentals cluster was that progress would increasingly depend on the functioning of institutions rather than declarations of political intent.

Ukraine has no shortage of declarations of European intent. What the Commission needs to establish is whether the machinery beneath them works.

The limits of the wartime argument

Any assessment that ignores Russia’s war would be unserious.

Full-scale aggression has inevitably changed the Ukrainian state. Decisions that might take months in peacetime sometimes have to be taken within days. Military information cannot be handled according to ordinary transparency rules. Elections cannot proceed under normal conditions. The executive carries responsibilities that no Ukrainian government faced before 2022.

Reform is also competing for administrative capacity with mobilisation, defence procurement, reconstruction, energy emergencies and the daily consequences of Russian attacks.

This has to be taken into account when Brussels sets timetables and assesses progress.

It is less convincing when applied indiscriminately.

Competitive recruitment of prosecutors does not interfere with the defence of Ukraine. Neither does an independent procedure for selecting the Prosecutor General. NABU’s ability to investigate senior officials does not prevent the armed forces from conducting operations, while closing procedural loopholes in corruption cases has no obvious adverse effect on wartime decision-making.

There is therefore a boundary between powers required to fight Russia and powers that are simply easier for government to retain during wartime.

Finding that boundary is becoming one of the more difficult questions in Ukraine’s relationship with the EU.

This does not support the sweeping claim that every important Ukrainian institution has been placed under political control. The evidence does not justify it.

It does show why Brussels is concentrating increasingly on institutional independence.

The problem with wartime centralisation is rarely that it begins without justification. Governments fighting wars need authority. The longer an emergency lasts, however, the more important it becomes to distinguish measures required by national security from arrangements that have become politically convenient.

Ukraine has now lived under full-scale war for more than four years. Institutions created for the post-war European state are being shaped while the wartime state still exists.

That makes the current reform period unusually consequential.

Conditionality becomes Brussels’ leverage

The EU has one powerful instrument with which to influence the outcome: money.

The Commission is already using it.

The almost €3 billion approved in September followed the completion of agreed Ukraine Plan milestones. The next payments depend on further commitments being met.

As EU Today reported when the Ukraine Plan was amended, additional financing has come with additional rule-of-law and anti-corruption requirements.

There is a limit to how far Brussels can push this. Ukraine is fighting a Russian war of aggression that also poses a direct security threat to Europe. Destabilising the Ukrainian budget in order to demonstrate the rigour of EU conditionality would make little strategic sense.

Kyiv is well aware of that.

But Brussels cannot simply waive the conditions either. Doing so would weaken reformers inside Ukraine, reduce EU influence over the accession process and make it more difficult to explain enormous long-term transfers to European taxpayers.

The result is already visible: continued financial support accompanied by increasingly detailed scrutiny of how reforms are implemented.

That approach is likely to become tougher as accession advances.

There is another reason for it.

Ukraine will eventually have to manage reconstruction on a scale Europe has not seen for decades. European governments, international financial institutions and private investors will be asked to commit hundreds of billions of euros. Confidence in prosecutors, courts, public procurement and anti-corruption agencies will affect how much money arrives and on what terms.

Strong institutions are therefore not a concession Ukraine makes to Brussels in exchange for membership.

They are part of the infrastructure required for Ukraine’s recovery.

The same applies to the war itself. Corruption in defence procurement, reconstruction or public administration gives Russia opportunities to damage confidence in the Ukrainian state and strain relations between Kyiv and its partners. Moscow has every interest in amplifying genuine scandals alongside fabricated ones.

The most effective answer is not tighter political management of damaging information. It is institutions capable of investigating misconduct credibly.

That is also why the role of Ukrainian civil society deserves attention.

The organisations producing critical assessments of Kyiv’s reforms are operating in a country under attack. Many have supported Ukraine’s European integration for years. Their reports can be disputed and their scoring methodologies examined, but criticism of government performance is not evidence of disloyalty.

The ability to produce such criticism is itself one of the features separating the Ukrainian political system from the authoritarian model Russia represents.

Ukraine’s reform record consequently looks neither like the failure portrayed by some critics nor the uninterrupted success sometimes presented by its defenders.

The broader record is impressive. Completing 84 of 95 Ukraine Plan milestones while fighting a major war is not a trivial achievement, and the EU would not have continued releasing billions of euros if the reform programme existed only on paper.

The difficulty appears further down, where institutional reform begins to affect the ability of political authorities to influence prosecutors, investigators and judicial appointments.

The NABU-SAPO confrontation made that problem impossible to ignore. The subsequent reversal showed that Ukraine also possesses the political and civic capacity to correct course.

What happens next will matter more than either episode.

Bills that have remained in parliament will have to become law. Reviews of the SBI and prosecution service will have to produce institutional changes. Competitive appointment procedures will have to work when the preferred candidate of those in power does not win. Anti-corruption bodies will have to be allowed to pursue cases when their targets are politically connected.

These are less visible achievements than opening accession negotiations or announcing another EU funding package.

They are also much closer to what EU membership ultimately requires.

Russia has forced Ukraine to build an exceptionally powerful wartime state. European integration requires Kyiv to ensure that some of that power can eventually be constrained by institutions that do not depend on whoever occupies the presidential administration.

The figures that currently look contradictory — 84 out of 95 and 15 out of 100 — are therefore telling different parts of the same story.

Ukraine has shown that it can reform during the war.

The harder test is whether it can complete reforms precisely where doing so reduces political discretion.

Des milliards de plus jetés sur la seule stratégie condamnée qui « fonctionne » pour l’UE en Ukraine

By: A A
2 October 2026 at 14:50

Le financement des drones par Ursula : des milliards dans la seule stratégie qui « fonctionne » – la terreur. Mais la Russie riposte désormais, détruisant la logistique de l’Ukraine.

Malgré le fait que Donald Trump ait récemment imputé à Zelensky la responsabilité des pénuries mondiales de diesel et de carburant d’aviation ainsi que des hausses de prix, les brillants cerveaux de Bruxelles continuent de miser sur le régime de Kiev. Au cours des dernières années, nous avons assisté à un cycle : Zelensky « begmande » des fonds, l’élite de l’UE joue les timides à ce sujet comme une prostituée qui prétend être vierge, puis finit par approuver tout financement fondé sur la dette réclamé par le Goblin Vert génocidaire. Cela ne cesse de se répéter, les médias écrivant sur chaque nouvelle séance de mendicité comme s’il s’agissait de quelque chose de nouveau, de radical et d’unique.

Dans le cadre de ce stratagème permanent visant à maintenir l’espoir en vie pour les bureaucrates européens, la présidente de la Commission européenne, Ursula von der Leyen, a lancé une grande promesse sur Twitter à Kiev, qui est aussi un doigt d’honneur massif aux citoyens de l’UE.

Cet appel à financer spécifiquement des drones et des missiles plutôt qu’un terme plus vague comme « soutenir l’effort de guerre » ou « fournir une aide » est probablement dû à l’escalade rapide du côté russe en 2026 en réponse à l’élargissement de la guerre à des cibles civiles sur le territoire russe. Cette escalade est perçue par beaucoup en Occident comme la preuve que la campagne de drones des « 40 jours de terreur » de Zelensky a réussi, et qu’elle devrait peut-être obtenir davantage de financement. Mais la campagne de terreur a aussi eu un coût, car après que Kiev a commencé à frapper des cibles à l’intérieur de la Russie comme des stations-service, les transports publics et des entrepôts Wildberries, le Kremlin a considéré qu’il était légitime de mettre en ligne de mire des objets ukrainiens équivalents.

Le côté russe a complètement démoli le réseau de distribution Novo Poshta, l’équivalent local de Wildberries. Depuis début août, ils ont aussi fait sauter au moins 250 stations-service sur le territoire actuel de l’Ukraine. Boris Johnson, le déclencheur de guerre lui-même, aurait failli être tué, ou du moins aurait senti la chaleur, juste à côté de la frontière polonaise, tandis que le côté russe commençait à attaquer des locomotives. Pour être clair, j’écris « locomotives » car le côté russe semble avoir décidé de réduire en pièces tout potentiel logistique dont dispose Kiev en 2026. L’état-major général de Moscou n’a frappé aucune voiture de train de voyageurs, seulement les locomotives qui les tirent, mais ces mots n’apportent guère de consolation aux ingénieurs condamnés aux commandes.

Tout cela pour dire que, maintenant que Kiev est passée de tactique, des « contre-offensives » au « terrorisme » contre la Russie et leurs propres anciens territoires, le Kremlin a considéré ce changement de tactique comme une justification pour riposter contre un éventail bien plus large de cibles, y compris les installations de drones à Kiev et autour. Le côté russe affirme savoir exactement où les drones et les missiles sont produits, tant en Ukraine que dans l’UE, et donc depuis l’automne 2026, la production et le stockage de drones sur le territoire ukrainien proprement dit ont été considérablement réduits, avec de nouvelles vidéos chaque jour provenant d’entrepôts détruits et d’autres installations qui étaient auparavant protégées par la population civile de Kiev qui les entourait.

Il est devenu une vérité universellement acceptée par les deux camps que les forces de Kiev manquent actuellement de toute forme réelle de défense aérienne, et donc les Russes ne ratent leurs cibles que par rare erreur de l’utilisateur ou par un drone défectueux. Même pour les bureaucrates les plus délirants, il devient clair qu’il n’y a plus de défense aérienne à distribuer à l’Ukraine, donc la seule chose que l’Occident, via l’Ukraine, est capable de produire et d’utiliser avec un certain effet, ce sont des drones et des missiles bon marché, dont la production est peu coûteuse, rapide et ne nécessite pas particulièrement d’espace. Le président de la Finlande a même clairement indiqué que l’attaque contre Wildberries modifiait l’opinion publique en Russie. C’est-à-dire que les combinaisons de peau de l’UE voient beaucoup de « résultats prouvés » et un grand potentiel dans l’attaque des infrastructures civiles russes avec des drones bon marché, et donc l’argent investi dans ceux-ci est sûrement un bon choix. Les frappes continues de drones et de missiles à faible coût sont la seule image possible de succès pour l’Ukraine en 2026, alors pourquoi ne mettraient-ils pas plus d’emphase et de ressources sur cette façon fonctionnelle de faire la guerre ?

Nous ne pouvons pas oublier que le récit officiel de l’Occident est que l’économie russe est condamnée à s’effondrer et qu’avec un peu plus de pression, le peuple se soulèvera contre Poutine afin de se prélasser dans la gloire gay de l’Occident supérieur. Ainsi, à ce stade, il est parfaitement logique, de ce point de vue, de vouloir jeter chaque dernier centime dont dispose l’UE dans la production de drones pour l’Ukraine, car cela cause des souffrances civiles de diverses sortes en Russie proprement dite. Cela donne des résultats et c’est bon marché en plus !

Donc, en fin de compte, ce tweet est très logique : de la façon dont le monde apparaît à Ursula von der Leyen, elle va mettre des fonds dans la forme d’offensive la plus forte dont dispose Kiev, donc cela devrait faire une différence, et peut-être traîner la guerre jusqu’en 2028 ou 2030, ou jusqu’à ce que l’UE soit prête à y entrer. D’un point de vue bureaucratique, c’est une décision sage. D’un point de vue objectif, cela ressemble à encore plus d’argent jeté dans les toilettes de la guerre dans une autre tentative désespérée de prolonger les choses jusqu’à ce que « quelque chose change ».

A rickety Europe tries to stand up to China

1 October 2026 at 04:47

The European Union is embarking on diplomatic hand-to-hand combat with China in an effort to rework its trade with Beijing and show it is not a geopolitical weakling. Using unusually direct terms, the EU has given China a mid-October deadline to provide ways it will reduce its massive trade advantage over Europe. If not, the […]

The post A rickety Europe tries to stand up to China appeared first on Asia Times.

The yield on the US 10-year Treasury reached its highest level in two decades. Why should you care?

The U.S. Treasury bond market is scorching hot and this should worry you because of the consequences for your bottom line. Your mortgage rate, car loan, credit card interest or business loan rates could rise driven by the state of government debt securities.

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© ANGELA WEISS (AFP)

The New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on Wall Street.

Operation Save the Yen: Japan partially turns off the cheap money tap, with a little help from its ‘American friend’ 

27 September 2026 at 05:00

The Bank of Japan had already announced an interest rate hike, in order to close the gap somewhat with the U.S. rate. However, by the time Japan’s monetary authority confirmed the increase on Friday, September 18, the Federal Reserve had already preempted it with another hike that further widened the gap between the two economies.

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The risk of a devalued yen

A devalued yen presents a major concern for the United States: when the currency is too weak, Japan is forced to sell off U.S. Treasuries, in order to access physical American dollars (which, in turn, are used to prop up the yen). Hence, with too big of a difference between the two currencies, the fear of massive sell-off becomes imminent. Additionally, with Tokyo having promised to invest $550 billion in the U.S. through 2029 (in exchange for lower tariffs on Japanese goods), a weak yen makes such a commitment more shaky. By raising interest rates, the Bank of Japan makes returns on Japanese assets more appealing to local and foreign investors, thus making the yen stronger and U.S. dollar investment more feasible.

© Akio Kon (Bloomberg) (EL PAÍS)

The Bank of Japan’s headquarters, in Tokyo. On September 18, 2026, the monetary authority hiked rates to a 31-year high.

Bond vigilantes on a savage hunt as global yields run wild

25 September 2026 at 06:59

TOKYO — The bond vigilantes are back — and now they’re patrolling every major debt market at once. As deficits balloon, spending runs unchecked and oil prices spike, investors are reasserting control over markets that once seemed shielded from shocks and sending yields skyrocketing. The revolt spans the US, Japan, Europe and beyond as a […]

The post Bond vigilantes on a savage hunt as global yields run wild appeared first on Asia Times.

Selenskys erfolglose Reise in die USA

24 September 2026 at 10:12
Die Lage der Ukraine wird zusehends dramatisch. Dem Land geht das Geld aus, aber die EU verweigert zuvor versprochene Zahlungen, solange Selensky nicht die von der EU geforderten Reformen umsetzt, die der EU de facto die totale Kontrolle über das Land geben und Selensky entmachten würden, und die US-Regierung, die wegen ihres fehlgeschlagenen Irankriegs selbst […]

Europe does not want to depend on foreign technology in the new digital order

19 September 2026 at 05:00

For years, Europe grew used to a contradiction that it is only now beginning to see as a risk: being one of the world’s foremost regulatory powers in the digital sphere while remaining dependent on others for much of the technology those rules were designed to govern. Over the past decade, Brussels has assembled an extensive legislative arsenal aimed at curbing the power of big tech, from the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) to the Digital Markets Act, the Digital Services Act and the AI Act. Yet while Europe was writing rules, the United States and China were building companies, data centers, chips, cloud platforms and artificial-intelligence models on a scale that no European firm has managed to match.

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© CN-STR / AFP / Getty Images (EL PAÍS)

A technician works at a semiconductor manufacturing plant in Suqian, Jiangsu province in eastern China.

Von der Leyen’s State of the EU: best of times for businesses, worst of times for working class

17 September 2026 at 19:42

It is rarely a good sign when European politicians open their speeches by quoting Charles Dickens. So alarms should have sounded the moment European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen declared this to be the best and the worst of times at the start of her State of the European Union address on September 16.

Things went downhill from there: the EU leader painted a picture of the region that stands in complete contrast to the general experience of its people, amounting to a summary of the bloc’s worst achievements.

“Von der Leyen has achieved the feat of not mentioning a single measure to help Europeans cope with the soaring cost of living across Europe, at a time when an ever-growing number of people are now forced to choose between housing, food and transport,” said Manon Aubry, Co-President of The Left in the European Parliament.

“Fiscal sustainability” and concern for businesses

In the lengthy address, von der Leyen laid out what she considered the EU’s successes, including raising military spending by almost 80% over the past five years and “reducing dependence” on Russian fossil fuels. However, this interpretation does not correspond to what people are experiencing, as outlined by The Left in a dedicated dossier. Growing military spending benefits only the arms industry. And attempts to replace cheaper Russian gas have essentially boiled down to committing to more expensive and environmentally devastating US LNG imports.

While recognizing growing energy prices, von der Leyen offered no tangible response to this problem plaguing EU households. On the other hand, she demonstrated notable concern for businesses, signaling the continuation of eroding labor and environmental protections along the lines implemented by right and far-right parties at the EU level.

Read more: Peter Mertens: “Don’t be afraid, seize the opportunities of 2026 with both hands”

The likelihood of maintaining the status quo was also noticeable when von der Leyen turned to the deadly wildfires that hit Europe this summer, devastating communities from Belgium and France to Spain and Greece. Trade unions and progressive analysts have warned for years that fire preparedness is severely impaired by a lack of planning and, specifically, shortages of firefighters. Yet there was no commitment in the address to invest more in essential public service workers. Instead, the EC President referred to the ongoing need for overall “fiscal sustainability” – meaning Europeans should expect no relief from austerity programs.

“The best of times is clearly reserved for billionaires, multinational energy companies, and war profiteers,” remarked Member of the European Parliament Marc Botenga from the Workers’ Party of Belgium (PTB-PVDA). “The other side of the coin for workers: austerity and rising prices.”

The EU’s failed foreign affairs policy

Based on the vision tabled by von der Leyen, there is also little to look forward to in Europe’s international and trade policy. “It’s hard to think of an area where the EU has been more inactive and less effective than in foreign affairs,” The Left wrote, referring to the union’s ongoing disregard of international law in relation to the genocide in Gaza and its approach to the Trump administration. 

“The President has praised Saudi Arabia’s war on Yemen, she has stood with Trump as he bombed Tehran and the European Commission has sided with the USA as they brought the global economy to a standstill in the Strait of Hormuz,” the progressive bloc warned.

The EU’s relationship with the US has continued to be one of submission, with elected regional leaders going to great lengths (unsuccessfully) to appease Donald Trump. Even when the region announced it would stand firm against US threats – in Greenland or on tariffs – this did not translate into practice.

In the context of von der Leyen’s speech, this boiled down to announcing Canada would become the “first associate member of the EU” and listing trade agreements signed with India, Mercosur, and Indonesia – met by the people of these countries with understandable concern.

Read more: Indian left opposes free trade agreement with EU, calls it “wholesale surrender” of country’s economic interests

Von der Leyen’s speech showed no sign of breaking with disdain towards nations outside the West. In addition to continuing animosity toward China, it offered a glimpse into plans involving countries rich in critical materials. The EC President announced the launch of a European Corporation on Critical Raw Materials – designed to secure and stockpile supplies for Europe’s industry and defense – with obvious implications for mineral-rich territories like Ukraine, Greenland, and several African countries. For the more skeptical listeners, this also carried weird echoes of the East India Company.

The State of the EU’s vision, it goes without saying, comes with further promises of an even stricter migration framework – on the pretext of situations like the one experienced in Ceuta earlier this year – that allow the erosion of basic human rights like asylum. Von der Leyen’s speech pledged even more finances for Frontex and suggested that outsourcing migration enforcement to third countries will continue, as endorsed by recent EU legislation.

“This policy of externalizing migration control has contributed to grave human rights violations, arbitrary detentions and systematic violence against people on the move,” The Left warned, calling for a union rooted in solidarity rather than violence and militarization.

How EU leaders are reacting to Canada associate membership proposal

17 September 2026 at 16:10
Aside from critical minerals, energy and defence equipment, European Union officials also hailed some of Canada's most popular exports - Celine Dion and TV show Heated Rivalry.

How EU leaders are reacting to Canada associate membership proposal

17 September 2026 at 16:10
Aside from critical minerals, energy and defence equipment, European Union officials also hailed some of Canada's most popular exports - Celine Dion and TV show Heated Rivalry.

‘Europe has chosen to forge its own path’: Von der Leyen sets out agenda for the year ahead

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen at the podium Photographer: Dati Bendo © European Union

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen used her State of the Union address on Wednesday (16 September) to make the case for a more independent Europe, confronting war, economic competition, AI disruption and climate change — while proposing Canada become the EU’s first associate member.

Opening her #SOTEU speech with Charles Dickens’ “best of times, worst of times”, von der Leyen described a Union stronger but also more exposed to external threats.

“The state of our Union is the strongest it has ever been,” she said, while acknowledging it could feel “as precarious as it has ever been”. “Europe has chosen to forge its own path. And a stronger, independent Europe is now emerging.”

Competitiveness and energy

Von der Leyen called kickstarting Europe’s economy her “number one priority”, promising faster permitting, less red tape and further integration of the Single Market.

The Commission will propose a new Banking Package and create a European Corporation on Critical Raw Materials to secure supplies needed for chips, batteries, clean technology and defence.

With high energy costs weighing on European industry, von der Leyen called for faster electrification and investment in grids, renewables and nuclear power to reduce dependence on imported fossil fuels.

Climate after a 'summer of truth'

After a summer of fires, drought and extreme heat, von der Leyen promised a climate resilience framework focused on 100 of Europe’s most vulnerable territories, alongside a Climate Insurance Alliance, European Heatwave Plan and Water Initiative.

She also floated a future European Firefighting Fleet, declaring that Europe “can, must and will stay the course” on its climate targets.

AI: Opportunity and threat

AI was presented as both an economic opportunity and an emerging security threat. Von der Leyen warned that advanced models could enable hacking “on a level we never thought possible” and pledged closer cooperation with Canada, the UK and others on AI security.

At the same time, Europe will expand computing capacity and push AI into health, transport, agriculture, manufacturing, defence and space. “Above all, we want AI with human agency,” she said.

Jobs, housing and social rights

The Commission plans a Quality Jobs Act before the end of the year and a European Care Deal, alongside measures tackling housing pressures.

Von der Leyen said technological change must benefit workers, while strongly defending women’s rights and Europe’s social model.

PHOTO  European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney at the podium Photographer: Dati Bendo © European Union

Canada moves closer

One of the biggest surprises came with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney in the chamber.

Von der Leyen proposed an “Alliance for the Future” spanning technology, defence, energy, critical minerals, AI and the Arctic — before going further.

“I would like to work with you on opening the door for Canada to be the first associate member of the EU,” she told Carney. “We share one ocean, one set of values, one way of seeing the world.”

Security, defence and Ukraine

With drone incursions, cyberattacks and sabotage raising security concerns inside the EU, von der Leyen proposed a new European security strategy and an Emergency Security Protocol for incidents falling below the threshold of armed aggression.

She also wants to establish a European Security Council and strengthen joint European defence capabilities.

Ukraine faces what von der Leyen called the “toughest winter of the war”. She promised humanitarian and energy support, stronger air defences and deeper defence-industrial cooperation with Kyiv.

Borders, democracy and children online

The Commission will propose an Emergency Response Framework for exceptional migration crises and strengthen Frontex, while launching a Mediterranean Youth Skills and Jobs initiative.

Von der Leyen also announced an EU KIDS ACT, including no social media for under-13s and restrictions for children under 15, followed by a broader Digital Fairness Act.

Political groups draw battle lines

EPP leader Manfred Weber backed the focus on AI, defence and competitiveness but pushed against restrictive climate policies. “Climate change is a reality,” he said, arguing Europe needed “innovation and not bans.”

S&D leader Iratxe García Pérez demanded that von der Leyen turn “words into action”, backing climate investment, housing and worker protections while warning that simplification must not become deregulation.

Renew Europe leader Valérie Hayer made a pointed appeal for the Parliament’s pro-European majority, as the EPP has increasingly worked with parties further to the right on some legislation. “There’s only one possible majority. It’s our pro-European majority,” she said. “We need to do more. We need more Europe, and we need it more quickly.”

Greens/EFA co-chair Terry Reintke accused EU leaders of failing to respond urgently enough to extreme heat and wildfires. “We are in the middle of a climate emergency,” she said, demanding stronger Green Deal implementation while insisting: “We are not powerless. Europe is strong, and Europe can be even stronger.”

ECR co-chair Patryk Jaki struck a sharply different note, attacking the Commission over bureaucracy, energy costs and industrial competitiveness. Europe, he argued, was “as weak as it’s ever been.”

Von der Leyen closed on the central theme running through the speech: European sovereignty in an increasingly hostile world.

“The fate of Europe,” she said, “must remain in the hands of Europeans.”

Von der Leyen pays tribute to Greek and Danish pilots killed fighting wildfires in Greece

16 September 2026 at 16:27

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen paid tribute on Wednesday to the Danish and Greek pilots who lost their lives while fighting wildfires in Greece, saying they had died as heroes. The two pilots were killed during a collision of two firefighting helicopters trying to extinguish a big forest fire in western Attica on […]

The post Von der Leyen pays tribute to Greek and Danish pilots killed fighting wildfires in Greece appeared first on Keep Talking Greece.

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