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Iran Unveils Underground Arash Drone Arsenal (Videos)

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Iran’s army on October 22 released footage of an underground facility producing Arash one-way attack drones, while state television reported that a new version carries a 100-kilogram warhead.

The footage showed dozens of drones inside the facility during a visit by Army Chief Maj. Gen. Amir Hatami. Iranian media described the release as the army’s first public video showing its advanced, domestically developed drones and their production.

Hatami said Iran had expanded its drone capabilities beyond the weapons themselves to include the infrastructure and personnel needed to manufacture, maintain and deploy them.

“We have reached a significant level of maturity in the field of drones and unmanned systems in general,” Hatami said, adding that more drones would be unveiled in the future.

Hatami noted that the army’s drone development program began in cooperation with the Defense Ministry and has since expanded into an industrial effort involving universities, researchers and technology companies.

He said a substantial portion of the army’s equipment was now intended for what Iran calls asymmetric warfare, which relies on weapons and tactics designed to challenge a conventionally stronger opponent.

“Today, we are particularly active in the production, distribution and maintenance of these weapons,” Hatami said.

Hatami also acknowledged damage to Iranian military equipment and facilities during recent wars, but said the army had prepared for conflicts in which it would rely on more than conventional weapons.

“Some of the equipment and facilities belonging to us were damaged in the recent wars, but the enemy thought that we did not distinguish between conventional and asymmetric warfare,” he said.

The announcement comes as Iran continues to emphasize its ability to sustain domestic weapons production and prepare for future confrontations.

The footage offered a rare look inside Iran’s underground drone program, although the army did not disclose the facility’s location or its production capacity.

The older Arash-2 is a one-way attack drone designed for long-range strikes. It is reported to have a range of up to 2,000 kilometers.

The newly shown model appears to be a separate version of the Arash family. Its reported 100-kilogram warhead would represent a substantial increase over the specifications commonly published for the older model.

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Iran Reports Seven Tankers Struck or Disabled in a Single Day

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Iran said on October 22 that seven oil tankers were damaged in and around the Strait of Hormuz, with four vessels catching fire after being struck and three others disabled after hitting naval mines.

Iranian state television, citing a statement by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Navy, said four vessels were struck simultaneously a day earlier while transferring oil between ships in the northern Persian Gulf. The Corps accused the vessels of following an unauthorized route.

Three other vessels were damaged and immobilized after striking naval mines west of the Strait of Hormuz, according to a separate statement by the Corps.

The IRGC warned that continued United States efforts to facilitate commercial shipping through routes Tehran considers illegal could prompt a wider response targeting American military bases in the region.

The reports come as shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains under severe pressure from attacks and heightened security risks, although oil exports through the waterway have partially recovered.

Preliminary data published by MarineTraffic on October 19 showed that 120 vessels crossed the strait during the week of October 12-18, a 40.9% decline from 203 crossings the previous week. The figures could be revised as additional vessel movements are identified.

At the same time, Kpler data cited by Reuters on October 22 showed that oil flows through the strait averaged 11.7 million barrels per day in October, up from 9.75 million barrels per day in September. The October figure was still about 82% of the average recorded before U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran began on February 28.

The recovery in oil shipments has been supported partly by convoys traveling close to Oman’s coastline under U.S. naval protection, according to the news agency. Around one-third of crossings have continued to use a northern route controlled by Iran, although those movements remain difficult to track.

The increased oil flows have not restored normal operating conditions. Reuters reported that the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations recorded 12 attacks in or around the strait during the previous week, adding that the actual number was likely higher because some shipowners avoid reporting incidents for commercial or security reasons.

The latest attacks were likely a warning by Iran to both the U.S. and Israel, who are reported to be planning another large-scale attack on the Islamic Republic.

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Russian Army Clears More Areas South of Dobropolye

Click to see full-size image. (Russian Ministry of Defense)

In the Dobropolye direction, clearing operations continue in the urban area, with Russian forces holding the southern part of the city and repelling attempts by Ukrainian units to relieve their grouping. In the Slavyansk direction, the 25th Army has regained control of Ozernoye and is developing an advance towards Krasny Liman. In the Zaporozhye direction, Russian troops have taken Yulyevka and Chervony Yar, expanding the zone of control north of Orekhov. In the Sumy region, assault groups of the “North” grouping have advanced near Khoten and Velikaya Rybitsa. In the Kharkiv direction, the clearance of the Reznikovsky cauldron is nearing completion. European Union leaders at an extraordinary summit on 26–27 November will attempt to agree ways of covering Ukraine’s funding shortfall for 2027, estimated at €70 billion, and will also discuss the EU’s multiannual budget for 2028–2034.

Dobropolye direction

Clearing of the urban territory continues in Dobropolye. The southern part of the city is already under stable Russian control, although scattered Ukrainian groups are still encountered there. Ukrainian units launched a counter-attack in an attempt to relieve their grouping and cut off the salient towards Belozerskoye, operating in the areas of Novovodyanoye and Zolotoy Kolodez.

In the Zolotoy Kolodez area, Russian troops are advancing on both flanks of the settlement. On the Dobropolye front, Russian forces are expanding the zone of control around Sergeyevka. Systematic clearing of the city continues in Dobropolye. Fighting is under way on the approaches to Belozerskoye and in the Zolotoy Kolodez area.

Russian troops are increasing pressure on Belozerskoye, bypassing the town on the flanks. Units have reached the outskirts and taken up positions in the southern built-up area and adjacent forest belts. Belozerskoye lies only a few kilometers from Dobropolye. Consolidation here could open a route via Novodonetskoye and Stepanovka towards Aleksandrovka.

Territories south of Dobropolye have been cleared of Ukrainian units. Russian fighters have taken Zolotoy Kolodez in a pincer movement and continue clearance operations. Reports from the ground indicate an improvement in the forward edge and strikes against positions in the areas of Zavidovo-Kudashevo, Krivorozhye, Starorayskoye and other settlements.

Slavyansk direction

Russian units in the north have gone over to counter-attacks and have retaken Ozernoye. This eases the position of the 3rd Army in the Raygorodok area, allowing it to concentrate more strongly on Nikolayevka. Strikes from the Orekhovatka area towards Raygorodok have been repelled. The Volunteer Corps holds Nikanorovka, Malinovka and Vasyutinskoye.

Russian troops near Krasny Liman are attempting to disrupt logistics and are advancing from the areas of Zarechnoye, Torskoye and Yampol. The Ozernoye area has been cleared. If Dibrova can be regained, the southern approaches to Krasny Liman will be cleared, creating the possibility of linking up with units holding positions in the town.

In the Konstantinovka sector, intense positional fighting continues in the areas of Rayskoye and Alekseyevo-Druzhkovka. Russian units are seeking to drive Ukrainian forces out of Klinovoye and Verolyubovka in order to secure the eastern flank for a future envelopment of Druzhkovka.

Zaporozhye direction

The Russian Ministry of Defence has reported that the village of Yulyevka has come under control. Nearby, Chervony Yar has also been taken adjacent to Timoshovka, which was captured the day before. The “East” grouping is expanding the zone of control north of Orekhov.

Fighting continues unabated in Orekhov itself. Judging by the pattern of operations, the Russian command is seeking to envelop the grouping center in Shirokoye, where Ukrainian forces have established a strong defensive line. Fighting continues in the northern part of Ternovatoye. Most of the settlement remains under Russian control. Earlier, Russian units took Zaporozhskoye and are gradually reducing the salient.

In the areas of Lyubitskoye and Novosoloshino, Russian troops have gone over to counter-attacks. Fighting in Vozdvizhevka has largely ended and Ukrainian units have been driven out. Battles have begun for Rozhdestvenskoye. Further south, the advance continues from the captured Chervony Yar. Assault groups are operating on the outskirts of the villages of Mirovka and Obshcheye. Thus, in the Zaporozhye direction, Russian units are systematically expanding bridgeheads, pushing Ukrainian forces out of key strongpoints and disrupting their logistics.

Sumy direction

Heavy positional fighting continues in Sumy direction. Russian aviation, drone teams and artillery are increasing the intensity of strikes against Ukrainian positions. Ukrainian units have concentrated on strengthening their defensive lines.

In the Sumy border area, positional fighting continues on the main lines. Fierce clashes are under way in the Yunakovka area; Ukrainian units are attempting to insert small groups but without success. Russian assault troops have advanced in the areas of Khoten and Velikaya Rybitsa overall progress amounting to up to 300 meters.

In the Sumy district, Russian assault troops have advanced near Khoten and Velikaya Rybitsa. Overall progress amounted to up to 300 meters. In the Shostka district, heavy positional fighting continues near Korenek. In the Krasnopolye district, assault groups of the “Northerners” are advancing near Turya. Russian units continue methodically to press the Ukrainian defenses, exploiting their advantage in artillery and drones.

Kharkiv direction

Assault units of the “North” grouping are developing their success in the area of the former “Volchansk cauldron”. The Ukrainian side has stepped up its information activity and is widely disseminating inaccurate claims about alleged control over lost settlements.

North of Bolshoy Burluk, clearance of the so-called Reznikovsky cauldron continues. According to official data, the main settlements have been cleared. The territory is extensive, almost 400–500 square kilometers. Isolated positions will continue to be cleared for some weeks yet. Ukrainian units, relying on Maly Burluk and Prikolotnoye, are attempting to reach the Plotva River in the area of Vasilyevka, Blagodatnoye, Nefyodovka and Chyornoye.

In the Lipetsk direction, Russian troops have advanced on three sectors south of Novaya Kazachya and Tokarevka. Overall progress amounted to 250 meters. In the Volchansk and Veliky Burluk directions, assault groups of the “Northerners” continue to advance southwards. There have been successes in the areas of Prikolotnoye, Maly Burluk and Kolodeznoye. Over the past day overall progress amounted to up to 500 meters.

Conclusion

In the Dobropolye direction, Russian forces are consolidating in the southern part of the city and enveloping Belozerskoye. In the Slavyansk direction, the 25th Army has gone over to the counter-offensive, recovering lost positions and creating a threat to Ukrainian logistics in the Krasny Liman area. In the Zaporozhye direction, the capture of Yulyevka and Chervony Yar has enabled the expansion of bridgeheads and continued pressure on Orekhov. In Sumy region, positional fighting continues with gradual advances by Russian assault groups. In the Kharkiv direction, the clearance of a large cauldron is nearing completion, freeing forces for further offensive operations. The overall trend remains the use by Russian units of small-group tactics that combine assault actions with strikes by artillery, aviation and drones, allowing them methodically to disrupt Ukrainian logistics and expand the zone of control.

European Union leaders at the extraordinary summit on 26–27 November will attempt to agree ways of covering Ukraine’s funding shortfall for 2027, estimated at €70 billion. The EU has already earmarked €45 billion for Ukraine in 2027, yet Kyiv’s financial needs substantially exceed this amount. Even taking into account the planned European funding, Ukraine’s additional requirement is assessed at approximately €70 billion.

Initially, Brussels had expected Norway, Switzerland, Canada, Japan and the United Kingdom jointly to provide a further €45 billion over 2026–2027. Not all the promised funds have been allocated, however. As a result, EU member states will have to agree to additional financing mechanisms for Kyiv, including the possibility of a new loan. At the same time, European leaders continue to negotiate the Union’s seven-year budget for 2028–2034. Brussels aims to conclude the talks by the end of the current year, since electoral campaigns due in a number of EU states in 2027 could further complicate the achievement of a compromise.

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Japan Faces Massive Energy Issues Due To US Wars, But Still Sends Troops Near Taiwan

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Written by Drago Bosnic, independent geopolitical and military analyst

Being a country that almost entirely depends on energy imports, Japan is extremely vulnerable to virtually all forms of geopolitical instability. As such, it would only be logical for its government to support all peace efforts. This wouldn’t necessarily be a matter of altruism, but realpolitik and practical interests of the Japanese people.

Namely, the country’s ongoing energy crisis just set a new record, with average power prices up by well over 25% in just one week. The massive hike is caused by soaring LNG and higher coal prices. Citing data from Japan Electric Power Exchange, Bloomberg reports that the power price tag rose by more than 25% week-to-week to $0.19 per kWh (kilowatt-hour). Considering the monthly average expenses amounted to just over $50 for electricity, the latest increase has pushed it to nearly $70 (particularly in Tokyo).

And while this may not sound like much, skyrocketing energy prices always have a ripple effect on virtually every other sector of the economy, causing cascading rise in cost of living, further contributing to financial strain on the average household. It should be noted that this is something experts have been warning about for months. Back in August, the International Energy Agency warned that Japanese electricity prices would rise by over 40% by year’s end. This estimate is now considered conservative given the latest surge. Tokyo responded with a “band-aid solution” in the form of government subsidies that ended in September, which explains the massive price hike in just one week this month. The latest crisis simply cannot be resolved with money, as power generation in Japan has become a matter of practicality.

Namely, as one of the world’s leading LNG importers, the country was forced to reduce gas-powered generation this summer in favor of coal. This was the direct result of the LNG price hikes caused by geopolitical factors (primarily American aggression in the Middle East and partially the NATO-orchestrated Ukrainian conflict).

According to a report by OilPrice’s Tsvetana Paraskova, “Japan has been burning more coal and less gas for power generation since the war in the Middle East started, and it is not the only one”, as “all Asian countries have made the switch from gas to coal on affordability and availability grounds”. Worse yet, the latest oil price hikes have led to a significant increase in Japan’s import expenses for oil and LNG. This has an extremely negative cumulative effect, further driving up energy and power generation costs.

Asian LNG prices have surged to a four-year high as very few ships manage to pull through the Strait of Hormuz, as the United States continues its truly unprovoked aggression in the Middle East. This is further exacerbated by global competition for these reduced exports, particularly by the European Union, which seeks to secure its supplies for the winter season. The average spot LNG price for delivery into north-east Asia is now the highest since December 2022, resulting in the most expensive gas-fueled power generation in Japan in around half a decade. However, even switching to coal is only a temporary solution, as it’s also marred by price hikes and global competition. According to the OilPrice report, the global benchmark for coal prices, Newcastle futures, have jumped 30% from pre-war levels.

Obviously, you’d expect Tokyo to focus all its energy (no pun intended) on tackling these issues and keeping its power generation relatively safe from geopolitical hurdles. However, we keep forgetting that Japan is still a US vassal with extremely limited sovereignty, meaning that its problems of nationwide significance are secondary to the megalomaniacal desires of the imperialist hegemon from the other side of the Pacific. Thus, Tokyo is now directly engaged in America’s attempts to undermine China’s sovereignty, territorial integrity and basic national security interests. Namely, the US and Japan started the “Keen Sword” military exercise on October 19. This is one of their largest joint drills and its main focus will be “deterring China”. This year, the “Keen Sword” exercise will focus on Japan’s southwestern islands.

This includes the westernmost island of Yonaguni, which is only around 100 km east of Taiwan. Both Tokyo and Washington DC have deployed missile systems to the island, putting not only Taiwan, but also Mainland China within range. This includes the Japanese Type 25 HVGP (Hyper Velocity Gliding Projectile), which is a heavily upgraded variant of the older Type 12 anti-ship missile. Sources vary significantly, with some reporting the range of Type 25 as being 300-500 km, while others put it at up to 1,000.

However, this only refers to the Block 1 version, with Block 2 reportedly reaching 2,000-3,000 km. Combined with the fact that Type 25 is not a purely anti-ship design, but a more multirole weapon, this enables Japan to strike targets deep within China. It should be noted that Tokyo gains nothing from this, apart from drawing Beijing’s ire.

And who could possibly blame China? Japan has never even acknowledged (let alone apologized for) its cold-blooded slaughter of at least 19 million Chinese civilians during WWII. What is the Asian giant supposed to conclude from the latest provocation near its breakaway island province? Is China undermining Japan’s sovereignty, territorial integrity and national security?

Obviously, it’s a rhetorical question, as we all know who really does. Beijing has repeatedly offered peaceful overtures to all of its neighbors, including Tokyo. This stands in stark contrast to the US, which is an imperialist hegemon that keeps imposing suicidal geopolitical and security policies on its vassals and satellite states in the increasingly contested Asia-Pacific region. Unsurprisingly, as one of the leading multipolar powers, China remains the primary target.


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Why trade is vital to understanding how Ukraine needs western capital to stay afloat and how Russia can pay for its war effort without new debt

Four graphs that tell a bigger story

By Ian PROUD

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I have wanted to write an article for sometime about the differing fates of Russia and Ukraine since the onset of the conflict in 2014. The headline is that Ukraine has never made up the difference in increased trade with Europe having cut its trade with Russia to the bone since 2014. This has inadvertently meant that Europe has had to inject significant sums of capital into Ukraine just to prevent its currency from collapsing as the war has gone on. Russia has diversified its trade away from Europe such that its export model is as strong today as it was in 2014, giving it the liquidity it needs to underwrite the war effort.

Key finding:

  • Ukraine exported 24% less and imported 46% more in 2025 than in 2014. The war has driven up imports while exports never recovered from the signing of the DCFTA and have been hampered by the war effort.
  • The yawning trade deficit Ukraine has built since the war started has placed greater strain on European sponsors to provide the capital Ukraine needs to prevent its currency collapsing, in addition to providing funding to meet its fiscal requirements.
  • This funding challenge for Europe will persist after the war ends until Ukraine can become self-sufficient in boosting exports and/or attracting sufficient foreign investment to offset its trade deficits.
  • Russia’s export strength and consistent surpluses have been unaffected by war. After the Ukraine crisis started, Russia started to diversify its major energy exports away from Europe, allowing it to weather the progressive reduction of exports to Europe. Indeed, Russia gained a huge windfall in 2022 from surging energy prices. There is no evidence that sanctions have impacted Russia’s export model in a significant way.
  • Russia has already started to reaccumulate FX reserves after the oil price collapse of late 2014, until before the war started. Following the immobilisation of $300bn in Russian FX reserves, Russia started to accumulate reserves in monetary gold, to sanction-proof future earnings. Russia now has liquid reserves of over $420bn meaning the immobilisation of its foreign currency reserves is no longer an economically limiting factor.

Detailed analysis

Russia’s export model in which it runs consistently large trade surpluses has ensured it can generate the reserves of foreign currency and gold which have undoubtedly helped to bankroll the war in Ukraine. Ukraine’s trade deficit has yawned since the war started, requiring continual injections of European capital to prevent its currency from collapsing.

This helps to explain by Russia can sustain the war for longer; it doesn’t need to take on significant new debt, its debt remaining low at 20%. Ukraine can only fund the war and keep its national accounts in balance with European money that cannot be guaranteed long-term and which, in any case, has increased Ukrainian debt by an average of 20% of GDP each year since the war started. This is not sustainable.

The Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement of 2014 has disadvantaged Ukraine because it forced a choice away from trading with Russia.

The starting point for this is the signature by Ukraine of a Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement with Europe on 27 June 2014.

Herman van Rompuy, then President of the European Council said that “stronger political and economic ties will bring greater stability and prosperity to the entire European continent.”

President Poroshenko said “over the last months, Ukraine paid the highest possible price to make her European dreams come true.”

Yet, the true price of this agreement has borne by Ukraine which saw its exports collapse and its imports increase, as it make a “sovereign choice” not to maintain trade links with Russia.

That was a catastrophically bad choice. Russia had accounted for around 25% of Ukrainian exports prior to 2014 and that figure fell to less than 5% in 2021 before the war started. Ukraine did not make up that gap by increasing the volume of exports to Europe, which have remained largely unchanged.

Indeed, this same pattern can be seen in Georgia which has also seen no real increase in exports to the EU after it signed the DCFTA. The EU uses a number of trade dispute mechanism and other non-tariff barriers to put blockages in the way of import growth from DCFTA partner countries.

So, by encouraging Ukraine to trade with Europe and not with Russia, Europe has imposed a deadweight economic loss on Ukraine which took a sovereign decision to forgo a previously profitable trade relationship, to pursue a political goal of EU integration.

Moreover, since the war started, imports into Ukraine have surged leading to a progressive ballooning of its trade deficit. This surge in imports has been caused by Ukraine purchasing weapons from the US using borrowed European and domestic funds. So, Ukraine is borrowing money to create a trade deficit that needs to be filled with further inflows of capital.

Dragged into a persistent and growth trade deficit by war, Ukraine needs continued injections of foreign funds to prevent its currency collapsing.

The graph below maps the growth in Ukraine’s trade deficit with the corresponding growth in receipts classified as Secondary Income within its quarterly balance of payments. These inflows of capital as Secondary Income are injections from Europe (principally) that are vital to shore up Ukraine’s FX reserves and so prevent a run on the currency. The key point is that foreign funding to Ukraine is more than just a fiscal event and top it. It is a vital support mechanism in circumstances where Ukraine is unable to attract sufficient inflows of foreign investment during a time of war.

Russia simply hasn’t faced the same challenge, choosing instead to diversify its exports to other countries as Europe progressively shut down trade. Sanctions haven’t dented trade.

The graph below illustrates in an elegant way how Russia’s trade has changed and evolved since. Russia’s exports have gone through peaks and troughs since 2014, although the troughs have often been caused by global events such as the 2014 and 2016 oil price collapses and COVID,

The onset of the war in Ukraine caused a huge windfall in income from exports as oil prices surged. Despite the imposition of thousands of sanctions by western nations after the war commenced, Russia’s exports have remained highly resilient. This is down to Russia’s diversification of its exports towards countries in Asia.

In short, despite many headlines in western mainstream media of sanctions ‘denting Russia’s war economy’ there is no substantive evidence that this has been the case.

Russia’s export model continues to be an engine room that provides the liquidity it needs to fund the war without taking on significant new debt. This gives it a significant advantage over Ukraine and its European backers in the ‘war of attrition’.

Russia has accumulated reserves since the war started to make up for the immobilisation of $300bn in FX by western nations. Russia now invests in monetary gold to sanction-proof its assets.

Finally, I have been commenting for some time that Russia started the process of accumulating Foreign Exchange Reserves in 2017 as it shifted its monetary policy to embrace a weak rouble to maximise rouble income from exports and as it undertook a number of dollar purchases via the Finance Ministry. You can see this reserve accumulation in the graph below.

After the war started, following the large windfall in earning from exports in 2022 and still solid trade figures after that, Russia continued to accumulate reserves. However, following the freezing of its foreign currency assets, it has chosen instead to store its reserves in monetary gold, to sanction proof them.

While Russia would undoubtedly like to see the return of its immobilised assets after the war ends (big question mark) it has nevertheless built up a significant financial buffer to the tune of over $420bn in reserve assets in addition to those assets that remain frozen.

This deep well of reserves undoubtedly helps to underwrite Russia’s war effort without the need for significant borrowing. Russia’s debt today sits at around 20% of GDP.

In 2021 Ukraine’s debt sat at around 49% of GDP. Today it sits at around 110% of GDP.

Original article: thepeacemonger.substack.com

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A framework for peace in Ukraine

This proposed settlement—designed to help end a conflict that has cost hundreds of thousands of lives and carries a continuing risk of confrontation—addresses the causes of the war rather than only its symptoms.

By Jeffrey D. SACHS

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The war in Ukraine can be ended permanently on terms that protect Ukraine’s statehood, meet Russia’s security concerns, and lay the foundation for a durable European security order. As another round of negotiations gears up in Norway, I propose a settlement concluded as a single package, signed by Ukraine and Russia, adopted by a vote of the United Nations Security Council under Chapter VII of the Charter, and guaranteed jointly by the five permanent members of the Council together with other states that choose to join. The proposal rests on the principle of indivisible security set out in the Helsinki Final Act and the Charter of Paris.

The package would have four core commitments.

The first is Ukraine’s permanent neutrality, adopted in a constitutional law on the model of Austria’s law of 1955, which would return Ukraine to the founding choice of its Declaration of State Sovereignty of 1990. Ukraine would join no military alliance and host no foreign bases or forces, whether of NATO, the European Union, their member states, or Russia. Neutrality would not mean disarmament, and Ukraine would retain armed forces for its own defense.

The second is that Ukraine would pursue its candidacy for membership in the European Union as a permanently neutral state, with a neutrality protocol in its accession treaty on the model of Ireland’s, and Russia would affirm that Ukraine’s membership in the EU is consistent with Russia’s security.

The third is an armistice line drawn along the line of contact on the date of signature. Each side would exercise de facto jurisdiction on its side of the line, neither would recognize the other’s territorial claims, and both would renounce force in any future adjustment. This formula is compatible with both countries’ constitutions, which bar or severely restrict the cession of territory.

The fourth is the end of NATO enlargement eastward. At signature the North Atlantic Council would declare that NATO will not admit Ukraine or other new members in Eastern Europe or the South Caucasus, withdrawing the Bucharest pledge of 2008.

The settlement would take effect as a permanent end of hostilities on signature, not as a temporary ceasefire, and its provisions would be implemented in stages under international verification. No element would be negotiated in isolation, and no party would be asked to make a concession in advance of signature.

The territorial arrangements are designed to address the concerns and claims of both sides. Ukrainian forces would withdraw from the part of Donetsk region that Ukraine now controls, which would become a demilitarized special zone. Russian forces would not enter it, the existing local civil administration would continue to function, and its final status would be left to negotiation. Russia would withdraw from the areas it holds in Dnipropetrovsk region and from the Kinburn Spit. A Northern Security Zone would be demilitarized on both sides of the Russian-Ukrainian border, and Russian forces would leave the areas they hold in Kharkiv and Sumy regions as Ukrainian forces withdraw from their side. The Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant would remain under Russian control with IAEA safety oversight and would sell an agreed share of its electricity to Ukraine at cost.

A demilitarized belt would run along both sides of the armistice line, with heavy weapons and long-range strike systems withdrawn to agreed distances, and mutual ceilings on forces would apply in the border regions on both sides. In the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov, commercial navigation would be free for all Ukrainian and Russian ports, and attacks on shipping and ports would be prohibited.

The settlement in Ukraine should also begin the repair of European security as a whole. NATO and Russia would agree on a moratorium on ground-launched intermediate-range missiles in Europe, refrain from deploying nuclear weapons in any additional state, and restore the NATO-Russia Council. Normal diplomatic relations would be restored on both sides. The parties would convene the first summit of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe since 2010 to entrust the OSCE with monitoring the settlement, verifying arms limits, and overseeing the provisions on rights.

Questions of language, education, culture, and religion would be resolved according to European standards, with the Russian language treated on the same basis as Ukraine’s other minority languages, and Russia would accept the same obligations toward Ukrainian speakers and religious communities on its side of the line. All obligations concerning extremism and incitement would be mutual and monitored by the OSCE. Prisoners of war would be exchanged on an all-for-all basis, detained civilians released, and separated children reunited with their families.

Sanctions would be lifted during 2027. Russia’s immobilized sovereign assets would also be released, and private property seized or immobilized on both sides would be restored. An international reconstruction fund administered by the European Investment Bank would finance reconstruction on both sides of the line, with contributions from all parties, Russia included, in a common effort rather than as reparations. Gas transit through Ukraine could resume wherever there are willing buyers, without any commitment by the European Union to purchase Russian gas.

A report of serious violation by an OSCE monitoring mission of unarmed observers from states outside NATO would trigger consultations among the guarantors and referral to the Security Council. Ukraine would lift martial law and hold elections under OSCE observation, and the newly elected Verkhovna Rada would ratify the settlement and adopt the constitutional law on neutrality, while the Russian Federal Assembly would ratify it at the same stage.

This proposed settlement addresses the causes of the war rather than only its symptoms. Europe has been largely absent from the design of the peace. By putting forward such a framework, European governments can take the lead in building Europe’s indivisible security and help end a war that has cost hundreds of thousands of lives and carries a continuing risk of confrontation between nuclear powers.

Original article: commondreams.org

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Russia’s ‘Geran-4 Seeker’ Drones Strike Two Ukrainian NASAMS Systems (Videos)

Three NASAMS launchers of the Dutch military, each can be loaded with six AMRAAM missiles. Source: the Dutch Ministry of Defense.

Russia’s Rubicon Center said on October 21 that its Geran-4 Seeker attack drones struck two Ukrainian NASAMS air defense systems in southeastern Ukraine, releasing video footage of the attacks.

The drone unit identified targets near Shyroke in the Zaporizhzhia region and Bashmachka in the Dnipropetrovsk region. It said both targets were successfully hit.

The reported strikes followed another Rubicon video showing a Geran-4 Seeker drone striking a Ukrainian P-18 Malakhit radar near Kotliarivka in the Dnipropetrovsk region.

The sequence points to an emerging role for the drones in suppressing enemy air defenses, a mission known as SEAD that involves locating and attacking radars, surface-to-air missile systems and other components of an opponent’s air defense network.

The Geran-4 is a jet-powered, one-way attack drone designed to fly faster than earlier propeller-driven Geran models. Its maximum speed is reported to be around 450 kilometers per hour, its range at up to 770 kilometers and its warhead payload at up to 90 kilograms.

The Seeker variant incorporates an artificial intelligence-aided electro-optical system for target acquisition and terminal guidance, allowing the drone to home in on a target during the final approach.

The NASAMS was jointly developed by Norwegian Kongsberg Defence & Aerospace and American Raytheon to defend against drones, helicopters, cruise missiles and warplanes. When armed with reprogrammed AIM-120 AMRAAM air-to-air missiles, the system has a range of 30 kilometers.

Ukraine’s exact NASAMS inventory remains undisclosed. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said last February that the country had more than 10 systems and continued to receive additional equipment, without revealing the precise number.

The United States had listed 12 NASAMS in its security assistance to Ukraine by September 2024. Norway has also provided complete firing units, while Lithuania supplied additional launchers for integration into Ukraine’s existing network, and Canada donated a separate system that arrived in November 2024.

The latest Russian strikes show that the Geran-4 Seeker is being used not only against conventional ground targets but also against the radar and missile assets that underpin Ukraine’s air defenses.

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  •  

Russia Has Brand-New Stealth Cruise Missile

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Russia has a new land-attack cruise missile with a low-observable design, according to Ukraine’s Defense Intelligence agency.

Russia began using the “Filin” against Ukraine in late summer of this year, according to a report published by the intelligence agency on October 22. The report also included an interactive 3D model showing the missile’s components and assembly.

The Filin is allegedly manufactured by Russian company NPO Molniya, part of Tactical Missiles Corporation. It is a ground-launched cruise missile with a reported range of up to 1,200 kilometers and a claimed top speed of 800 kilometers per hour, according to the report.

The missile measures about 3.5 meters long, with a wingspan of roughly 3 meters. Its fuselage is made from carbon- and fiberglass-reinforced composite materials, and some components are produced using 3D-printing technology. It can fly at extremely low altitudes but is also capable of climbing to about 6 kilometers. The report identified versions carrying warheads weighing 50 kilograms or 100 kilograms.

The missile is launched using a solid-propellant booster before its main jet engine takes over. Its navigation system combines an inertial navigation system with a 16-channel Kometa satellite-navigation module, which is highly resistant to jamming.

Notably, the Filin uses an R500 jet engine manufactured by Russian company Reynolds LLC. The same engine has also been identified in Russia’s S-71K Kover and S-71M Monokhrom air-launched cruise missiles.

The Ukrainian intelligence report came just a day after Russia’s state-owned Rostec corporation revealed that it is developing a new generation of attack drones designed to fly farther, faster and more autonomously, building on its Dan-T loitering munition, which the company says has capabilities comparable to cruise missiles.

Recent generations of Russian strike weapons, like the Dan-T, Geran-4 and Geran-5, have blurred the line between an attack drone and a cruise missile, mixing the range, flexibility and low cost of the first with the range and speed of the second. Ukraine’s highly depleted air defense network has been struggling to cope with these weapons. Now, the Filin represents a new threat with higher speed and longer range.

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  •  

U.S. and Israel Draw Up Plans to Strike Iran’s Energy Facilities, Nuclear Sites and Missile Arsenal

Click to see full-size image. (U.S. Air Force)

The United States and Israel have drawn up plans for renewed military strikes on Iran following the American midterm elections next November, The New York Times reported on October 21, citing U.S. officials and others briefed on the matter.

The plans reportedly envisage a short but intensive operation targeting Iranian energy infrastructure, nuclear facilities and the country’s missile and drone arsenals.

The U.S. and Israeli militaries have stepped up joint preparations, including flights over neighboring Iraq to rehearse strike maneuvers.

Officials cited by the newspaper said renewed strikes could severely damage Iran’s economy and force Tehran to make diplomatic concessions. The report noted, however, that U.S. President Donald Trump has not committed to authorizing further military action.

A separate report from NBC News revealed that the U.S. is also quietly reducing its troop presence at bases in Jordan, Qatar and Kuwait while cutting staffing at diplomatic missions across the Middle East amid threats from Iran.

Amid these developments, Trump said there were no negotiations with Tehran and indicated that developments in the conflict could come soon.

“We are not negotiating with” Iran, Trump told a reporter before boarding Air Force One at Joint Base Andrews.

“Something one way or another will happen, fairly soon,” he continued. “Most people seem to think it’s after the election.”

In apparent response to recent escalation, a senior Iranian security official told the semi-official Fars News Agency that Tehran expects another U.S.-Israeli attack and considers Washington’s diplomatic efforts insincere.

The official warned that any renewed large-scale conflict involving the assassination of Iranian officials or the killing of civilians would lead Iran to consider U.S. political targets and the infrastructure of countries participating in the war “legitimate targets.”

Overall, it is clear that the U.S. and Israel will attack Iran again. Recent Hebrew media reports even revealed that dozens of Israeli warplanes have already flown close to the border of the Islamic Republic in the hope of provoking some response. Tehran is keeping its finger on the trigger and is guaranteed to strike back in the case of a new attack. One thing is sure this time, and that is that the U.S. and Israel have lost the element of surprise.

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  •  

Russian Army Clears More Areas South of Dobropolye

Click to see full-size image. (Russian Ministry of Defense)

In the Dobropolye direction, clearing operations continue in the urban area, with Russian forces holding the southern part of the city and repelling attempts by Ukrainian units to relieve their grouping. In the Slavyansk direction, the 25th Army has regained control of Ozernoye and is developing an advance towards Krasny Liman. In the Zaporozhye direction, Russian troops have taken Yulyevka and Chervony Yar, expanding the zone of control north of Orekhov. In the Sumy region, assault groups of the “North” grouping have advanced near Khoten and Velikaya Rybitsa. In the Kharkiv direction, the clearance of the Reznikovsky cauldron is nearing completion. European Union leaders at an extraordinary summit on 26–27 November will attempt to agree ways of covering Ukraine’s funding shortfall for 2027, estimated at €70 billion, and will also discuss the EU’s multiannual budget for 2028–2034.

Dobropolye direction

Clearing of the urban territory continues in Dobropolye. The southern part of the city is already under stable Russian control, although scattered Ukrainian groups are still encountered there. Ukrainian units launched a counter-attack in an attempt to relieve their grouping and cut off the salient towards Belozerskoye, operating in the areas of Novovodyanoye and Zolotoy Kolodez.

In the Zolotoy Kolodez area, Russian troops are advancing on both flanks of the settlement. On the Dobropolye front, Russian forces are expanding the zone of control around Sergeyevka. Systematic clearing of the city continues in Dobropolye. Fighting is under way on the approaches to Belozerskoye and in the Zolotoy Kolodez area.

Russian troops are increasing pressure on Belozerskoye, bypassing the town on the flanks. Units have reached the outskirts and taken up positions in the southern built-up area and adjacent forest belts. Belozerskoye lies only a few kilometers from Dobropolye. Consolidation here could open a route via Novodonetskoye and Stepanovka towards Aleksandrovka.

Territories south of Dobropolye have been cleared of Ukrainian units. Russian fighters have taken Zolotoy Kolodez in a pincer movement and continue clearance operations. Reports from the ground indicate an improvement in the forward edge and strikes against positions in the areas of Zavidovo-Kudashevo, Krivorozhye, Starorayskoye and other settlements.

Slavyansk direction

Russian units in the north have gone over to counter-attacks and have retaken Ozernoye. This eases the position of the 3rd Army in the Raygorodok area, allowing it to concentrate more strongly on Nikolayevka. Strikes from the Orekhovatka area towards Raygorodok have been repelled. The Volunteer Corps holds Nikanorovka, Malinovka and Vasyutinskoye.

Russian troops near Krasny Liman are attempting to disrupt logistics and are advancing from the areas of Zarechnoye, Torskoye and Yampol. The Ozernoye area has been cleared. If Dibrova can be regained, the southern approaches to Krasny Liman will be cleared, creating the possibility of linking up with units holding positions in the town.

In the Konstantinovka sector, intense positional fighting continues in the areas of Rayskoye and Alekseyevo-Druzhkovka. Russian units are seeking to drive Ukrainian forces out of Klinovoye and Verolyubovka in order to secure the eastern flank for a future envelopment of Druzhkovka.

Zaporozhye direction

The Russian Ministry of Defence has reported that the village of Yulyevka has come under control. Nearby, Chervony Yar has also been taken adjacent to Timoshovka, which was captured the day before. The “East” grouping is expanding the zone of control north of Orekhov.

Fighting continues unabated in Orekhov itself. Judging by the pattern of operations, the Russian command is seeking to envelop the grouping center in Shirokoye, where Ukrainian forces have established a strong defensive line. Fighting continues in the northern part of Ternovatoye. Most of the settlement remains under Russian control. Earlier, Russian units took Zaporozhskoye and are gradually reducing the salient.

In the areas of Lyubitskoye and Novosoloshino, Russian troops have gone over to counter-attacks. Fighting in Vozdvizhevka has largely ended and Ukrainian units have been driven out. Battles have begun for Rozhdestvenskoye. Further south, the advance continues from the captured Chervony Yar. Assault groups are operating on the outskirts of the villages of Mirovka and Obshcheye. Thus, in the Zaporozhye direction, Russian units are systematically expanding bridgeheads, pushing Ukrainian forces out of key strongpoints and disrupting their logistics.

Sumy direction

Heavy positional fighting continues in Sumy direction. Russian aviation, drone teams and artillery are increasing the intensity of strikes against Ukrainian positions. Ukrainian units have concentrated on strengthening their defensive lines.

In the Sumy border area, positional fighting continues on the main lines. Fierce clashes are under way in the Yunakovka area; Ukrainian units are attempting to insert small groups but without success. Russian assault troops have advanced in the areas of Khoten and Velikaya Rybitsa overall progress amounting to up to 300 meters.

In the Sumy district, Russian assault troops have advanced near Khoten and Velikaya Rybitsa. Overall progress amounted to up to 300 meters. In the Shostka district, heavy positional fighting continues near Korenek. In the Krasnopolye district, assault groups of the “Northerners” are advancing near Turya. Russian units continue methodically to press the Ukrainian defenses, exploiting their advantage in artillery and drones.

Kharkiv direction

Assault units of the “North” grouping are developing their success in the area of the former “Volchansk cauldron”. The Ukrainian side has stepped up its information activity and is widely disseminating inaccurate claims about alleged control over lost settlements.

North of Bolshoy Burluk, clearance of the so-called Reznikovsky cauldron continues. According to official data, the main settlements have been cleared. The territory is extensive, almost 400–500 square kilometers. Isolated positions will continue to be cleared for some weeks yet. Ukrainian units, relying on Maly Burluk and Prikolotnoye, are attempting to reach the Plotva River in the area of Vasilyevka, Blagodatnoye, Nefyodovka and Chyornoye.

In the Lipetsk direction, Russian troops have advanced on three sectors south of Novaya Kazachya and Tokarevka. Overall progress amounted to 250 meters. In the Volchansk and Veliky Burluk directions, assault groups of the “Northerners” continue to advance southwards. There have been successes in the areas of Prikolotnoye, Maly Burluk and Kolodeznoye. Over the past day overall progress amounted to up to 500 meters.

Conclusion

In the Dobropolye direction, Russian forces are consolidating in the southern part of the city and enveloping Belozerskoye. In the Slavyansk direction, the 25th Army has gone over to the counter-offensive, recovering lost positions and creating a threat to Ukrainian logistics in the Krasny Liman area. In the Zaporozhye direction, the capture of Yulyevka and Chervony Yar has enabled the expansion of bridgeheads and continued pressure on Orekhov. In Sumy region, positional fighting continues with gradual advances by Russian assault groups. In the Kharkiv direction, the clearance of a large cauldron is nearing completion, freeing forces for further offensive operations. The overall trend remains the use by Russian units of small-group tactics that combine assault actions with strikes by artillery, aviation and drones, allowing them methodically to disrupt Ukrainian logistics and expand the zone of control.

European Union leaders at the extraordinary summit on 26–27 November will attempt to agree ways of covering Ukraine’s funding shortfall for 2027, estimated at €70 billion. The EU has already earmarked €45 billion for Ukraine in 2027, yet Kyiv’s financial needs substantially exceed this amount. Even taking into account the planned European funding, Ukraine’s additional requirement is assessed at approximately €70 billion.

Initially, Brussels had expected Norway, Switzerland, Canada, Japan and the United Kingdom jointly to provide a further €45 billion over 2026–2027. Not all the promised funds have been allocated, however. As a result, EU member states will have to agree to additional financing mechanisms for Kyiv, including the possibility of a new loan. At the same time, European leaders continue to negotiate the Union’s seven-year budget for 2028–2034. Brussels aims to conclude the talks by the end of the current year, since electoral campaigns due in a number of EU states in 2027 could further complicate the achievement of a compromise.

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  •  

Russian FPV Drones Destroy Another of Ukraine’s Latest DITA Howitzers (Videos)

File image.

Russian FPV drones have destroyed another Czech-made DITA 155 mm self-propelled howitzer in Ukrainian service, footage released by Russia’s Rubikon drone unit shows.

The video, published on October 20, shows drones striking the artillery system near Novopavlivka in the Donetsk region. Rubikon said the attack took place two days earlier. The footage shows an explosion and smoke rising from the vehicle after the strike.

The attack follows footage released by Rubikon on October 7 showing Russian drones destroying a DITA in the Sumy region. The two incidents have brought fresh attention to the vulnerability of Ukraine’s relatively small fleet of the advanced artillery systems.

Developed by Czech defense company Excalibur Army, the DITA combines a NATO-standard 155 mm gun with an automated loading and fire-control system. Its most distinctive feature is that the entire weapon can be operated by just two crew members, a driver and a commander, without requiring personnel to work directly around the gun.

The howitzer has a manufacturer-advertised range of up to 39 kilometers and carries 40 rounds. It can fire six rounds per minute during its initial firing sequence and sustain five rounds per minute. Its onboard ballistic computer and automated gun-laying system are designed to shorten the time needed to engage targets and leave a firing position, reducing exposure to enemy counterbattery fire.

The 29-tonne system is mounted on an eight-wheel-drive Tatra chassis powered by a 300-kilowatt engine. It can reach speeds of up to 90 kilometers per hour on roads and has a listed cruising range of 600 kilometers.

The combination of mobility, range and automation makes it a modern alternative to older artillery systems, but it does not eliminate the danger posed by drones that can locate and attack vehicles while they are stationary.

The Netherlands financed Ukraine’s initial acquisition of nine DITA howitzers, which were delivered in the summer of 2024. In October that year, the Dutch government ordered six more, bringing the publicly announced procurement to 15 systems, with delivery of the additional guns planned for 2025.

The exact number now in Ukrainian service has not been publicly established. Ukrainian defense publication Defense Express reported in March 2026 that the manufacturer had produced a high double-digit number of DITA systems overall, raising the possibility that Ukraine received more than the 15 publicly announced. However, the company’s production total also includes systems for other customers, and no further Ukrainian orders have been publicly announced.

The latest strike highlights a growing battlefield challenge for modern artillery. Even systems designed to fire quickly and relocate within minutes remain vulnerable when drone operators identify their positions and direct repeated attacks against them.

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  •  

Military Situation In Ukraine And Ukrainian Attacks On Russian Territory On October 21, 2026 (Maps Update)

Click to see full-size map.

  • Russian strikes destroyed targets in Sumy, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, Kherson, Kyiv, Volyn, Vinnytsia, Mykolaiv, Odesa, Chernihiv, Khmelnytskyi, Rivne, Cherkasy, Poltava, Lviv, and Zhytomyr and the DPR;
  • According to the Ukrainian Air Force, Russian forces attacked Ukraine with 186 strike UAVs;
  • Russian forces struck a depot centre in Poltava;
  • Russian forces struck Nivki PS-330 power substatio in Kiev;
  • Russian forces struck a dry cargo ship in the Odessa region;
  • Russian forces struck Epicenter shopping center in Uman;
  • Russian forces struck a logistics center in the Mykolaiv region;
  • Ukrainian losses amounted to approximately 1,185 troops over the past 24 hours.

Click to see full-size map.

  • During the past night, Russian air defenses destroyed 373 Ukrainian drones in the rear regions;
  • Russian air defenses intercepted UAVs in the Novgorod, Tver, Bryansk, Belgorod, Kursk, Smolensk, Kaluga, Oryol, Tula, Ryazan regions, the Moscow region, the Krasnodar region, the Republic of Crimea, and over the Black Sea;
  • A 19-year-old resident of the Bryansk region died as a result of a Ukrainian drone strike;
  • Over the past 24 hours, four people were injured in the Belgorod region;
  • Ukrainian drone strikes damaged cell tower, an energy facility, and several vehicles in the Kursk region.

Click to see full-size map.

  • Russian forces advanced on the western outskirts of Kupyansk;
  • Russian forces took control of Malaya Shapkovka.

Click to see full-size map.

  • Russian forces took control of Chervony Yar.

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  •  

Iran Prepares to Unveil ‘Father of All Bombs’

File image.

Iran is preparing to unveil a new weapon dubbed the “father of all bombs,” a spokesman for the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said on October 21, as Tehran signals a shift toward a more offensive military doctrine.

“We are in the stage of preparing to unveil the ‘father of all bombs.’ This is something new for the enemy,” IRGC spokesman Hossein Mohebi said in remarks carried by Iran’s Young Journalists Club news agency.

His remarks came after United States President Donald Trump hinted last week at the possible use of the GBU-43/B Massive Ordnance Air Blast bomb, known as the “mother of all bombs,” against Iranian nuclear facilities.

Weighing approximately 9,800 kilograms, the GBU-43/B is among the largest non-nuclear conventional bombs in the U.S. arsenal. It was first used in April 2017 during Trump’s first presidential term, when U.S. forces targeted a tunnel complex belonging to the Islamic State group in Afghanistan.

Mohebi also said Iran’s missile stockpile had increased 1.5-fold following the 12-day war between Iran and Israel in June 2025, without disclosing specific figures.

“The quality of the missiles has improved significantly, and their range, destructive power and accuracy in hitting targets have increased,” he added.

The IRGC spokesman said Tehran was moving away from a predominantly defensive military posture toward what he described as permanent and absolute deterrence.

“Previously, Iran’s defense doctrine was purely defensive. We used to say that if a country attacked us, we would respond,” Mohebi said.

“Now, we say that if a country attacks us, we will not only respond but also launch an offensive,” he added.

In addition, the spokesman affirmed that Iran would retaliate against any attack with comparable measures and increasingly rely on asymmetric warfare to impose greater costs on its adversaries.

“Our doctrine will no longer be merely offensive; it will be asymmetric. We will attack the enemy in a way that makes them feel the intensity of our response,” he said.

The remarks came amid reports of expanded Iranian missile exercises. Israeli newspaper Israel Hayom reported on October 15, citing Arab media, that Iran had launched at least 30 ballistic missiles of two types during an IRGC exercise earlier in that week.

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  •  

In Video: Houthi Drones Hunt Down Saudi Soldiers Along Yemen’s Border

File image.

Yemen’s Houthis (Ansar Allah) released footage October 20 showing Rujum drones striking Saudi military positions along the border with the kingdom’s Jizan and Asir provinces.

The video showed the drones targeting troops, barracks and vehicles. The group described the attacks as the first use of Rujum drones on those border fronts. It said surveillance enabled coordinated strikes on multiple locations simultaneously.

The Rujum is a modified version of the Chinese-made YD6-1000S hexacopter bomber drone featuring a 44-minute flight time and a 2 kg payload capacity, adapted to deploy munitions such as 60 mm mortars.

Houthi military media said the strikes destroyed main battle tanks, weapons depots and rear-area supply centers, and breached Saudi defensive barriers.

Reports of Saudi troops killed near the Yemen border or inside Yemen have circulated more frequently in recent weeks. No official overall toll has been published.

The Houthis also have stepped up operations along the border. Earlier this week, the group shot down a Saudi AH-6i light attack helicopter near Najran, killing both crew members. Despite the release of footage confirming the helicopter was hit, the kingdom said the aircraft crashed because of a technical malfunction.

The escalation along the Yemen-Saudi border could be a prelude to a large-scale Houthi incursion into the kingdom in the near term.

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Military Situation In Yemen On October 21, 2026 (Map Update)

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  • The Yemeni army (Ansar Allah) struck the operations room at the Badr military camp near Aden Airport with a ballistic missile;
  • The Yemeni army (Ansar Allah) struck the Saudi military equipment at Riyan airport in Mukalla;
  • Fighting between Ansar Allah and the Saudi-backed forces continue in Jabal Han and the Old Airport west of Taiz.

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Israeli Jets Flew Toward Iran’s Border in Possible Bid to Provoke Tehran

Illustrative image. (Israeli Air Force)

Dozens of Israeli fighter jets and refueling aircraft flew over Syria and Iraq toward Iran’s border earlier this week in a mission that U.S. officials suspect may have been intended to provoke Tehran into firing on them, Hebrew media reported Wednesday.

Israel informed Washington ahead of the flight, describing it as a military exercise and a show of force intended to deter Iran, Channel 12 reported, citing U.S. officials.

The aircraft followed a route resembling an attack on Iran but turned around shortly before reaching Iranian territory and returned to Israel.

Several sources told Channel 12 they suspected some Israeli officials may have hoped Iran would fire on the aircraft, providing Israel with a justification for launching an attack. The report said the flight covered more than 1,000 kilometers toward Iran, putting Israeli aircraft within range of Iranian air defenses.

The report comes amid growing tensions over the possibility of renewed Israeli strikes on Iran. The Financial Times reported that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu sought to launch another offensive earlier this month, but President Donald Trump opposed renewed fighting before the U.S. midterm elections.

Channel 12 also reported that Israeli military Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir warned his American counterpart, Gen. Dan Caine, that a war before Israel’s parliamentary elections next week would likely force a postponement of the vote. Zamir said Tuesday that the military would ensure the elections proceeded “without external interference.”

Israeli security officials have also expressed concern that recent remarks by Netanyahu and Defense Minister Israel Katz could prompt Iran to consider a preemptive strike against Israel, according to Channel 12.

Security officials and opposition figures have urged Zamir to oppose an attack before the election unless there is a pressing military necessity, the network reported.

The latest report didn’t come as a surprise as dozens of Israeli aircraft were spotted over Syria and Iraq in recent days. The stunt demonstrates, however, that Israel is planning to reignite the war, and while Trump has managed to stop Netanyahu for now, he will likely join him in another attack against the Islamic Republic after the midterm elections.

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  •  

Military Situation In Iran On October 21, 2026 (Map Update)

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  • On October 20, an oil tanker was struck by an unidentified projectile about 30 nautical miles southeast of Al Faw, Iraq;
  • On October 21, an unidentified projectile struck a tanker about 11 nautical miles west of Bukha, Oman.

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Wreckage of Loitering Munitions Raises Alarms Over Ankara’s Expanding Role in Yemen (Video)

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Footage released by the Houthis (Ansar Allah) on October 21 appeared to show the wreckage of two Turkish-made STM Kargu loitering munitions in the central Yemeni province of Marib, highlighting Ankara’s growing involvement in the conflict as it prepares to expand military support for Saudi Arabia.

The footage, released by Houthi military media, showed what the movement described as attacks on concentrations of Saudi-aligned forces and the destruction of several military vehicles east of Ragwan district.

The wreckage of two Kargu loitering munitions which were shot down by Houthi fighters during the fighting is seen in the footage.

The Kargu is a compact, electrically powered multirotor loitering munition developed by Turkish defense company STM. The drone has an operational range of approximately 10 kilometers and can remain airborne for less than 30 minutes, according to the manufacturer. Its takeoff weight, including its payload, is about 7.7 kilograms.

Equipped with electro-optical and infrared cameras, the loitering munition can operate during the day and at night. It can carry anti-personnel or armor-piercing warheads and is designed to identify and engage stationary or moving targets autonomously.

The appearance of the Turkish-made loitering munition in Marib comes amid mounting evidence of Ankara’s expanding military support for Riyadh.

Earlier this month, Reuters reported, citing a United States official, that Turkey’s assistance to Saudi Arabia included air defense support, drone operators, logistical assistance, and intelligence and surveillance capabilities.

Turkey has maintained that its support is defensive, but its potential military role is moving closer to formal military deployment.

On October 20, Ankara submitted the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement with Saudi Arabia and Pakistan to parliament for ratification. The agreement, signed in August, treats an armed attack on one member as an attack on all three.

A ruling Justice and Development Party lawmaker told Reuters the next day that Turkey would submit a separate mandate authorizing the deployment of military personnel to Saudi Arabia once parliament approves the agreement. The initial deployment would focus on technical personnel and specialists supporting air defense, electronic warfare and other defensive capabilities, the lawmaker said.

Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan has ruled out using the agreement to send troops abroad to carry out offensive attacks.

The Kargu wreckage does not establish whether Turkish personnel operated the loitering munitions, or whether the systems were supplied to Saudi forces or their Yemeni allies. But their reported presence on the battlefield points to a deepening Turkish involvement.

As Turkey expands its military support, it risks becoming increasingly integrated into Saudi military operations against the Houthis. Even if Turkish troops remain stationed in Saudi Arabia and Ankara continues to describe its mission as defensive, the support could facilitate operations inside Yemen.

As the conflict escalates, the distinction between protecting Saudi territory and becoming an active participant in the Yemen war could become increasingly difficult to maintain.

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Syria is Preparing to Send 10,000 Troops to Yemen

Illustrative image.

A Syrian military delegation has held talks in Saudi Arabia on arrangements to transfer as many as 10,000 Syrian fighters to participate in the war against Yemen’s Houthis (Ansar Allah), Lebanon’s Al-Akhbar newspaper reported on October 20, citing Yemeni intelligence sources.

The reported discussions come despite denials by Syria’s transitional government that Damascus intends to send thousands of fighters to southern Saudi Arabia. The alleged deployment could extend Syria’s involvement in a regional conflict that has intensified in recent weeks.

According to Al-Akhbar, the delegation included Brig. Gen. Khaled Khattab, commander of the 82nd Division in Syria’s new army and a former leader of the al-Qaeda-affiliated Ansar al-Tawhid faction, and Brig. Gen. Haitham al-Ali, also known as Abu Muslim, commander of the army’s 3rd Corps and a former leader of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham.

Yemeni intelligence sources told the newspaper that Khattab spent four days in the southern Saudi provinces of Asir and Najran, accompanied by Saudi officers, visiting sites reportedly being prepared to receive the Syrian fighters.

Al-Ali, meanwhile, held meetings with Saudi officers at the Defense Ministry in Riyadh to discuss transportation costs, financial arrangements, additional benefits and the military missions the contingent would carry out.

The sources said the visiting team had completed preparations for the logistical transfer of the fighters, but the report did not establish when a deployment might take place.

Al-Akhbar also cited sources aligned with Yemen’s internationally recognized government based in Aden as saying that dozens of Syrian trainers specializing in drone operations were already present at military camps in Asir and several locations in Yemen. These reportedly included facilities near Seiyun in Hadramout province, the al-Khasha camp in Hadramout and the al-Anad military base.

The sources said the trainers were instructing members of the Saudi-backed Homeland Shield forces and Giants Brigades. The sources also alleged that Syrian drone operators had established units within Saudi Arabia’s Emergency Forces in Asir and in the al-Wadiah and Sharurah areas.

The report further raised the possibility that foreign fighters could be transferred alongside Syrians. Al-Akhbar cited Syria’s Sham TV as reporting that Khattab was responsible for assembling foreign recruits for deployment to Yemen.

According to the broadcaster, prospective recruits were being offered generous salaries, free pilgrimages to Mecca and Medina, and the possibility of relocating their families to Yemen after a period of what it described as “stability.”

Al-Akhbar cited analysts specializing in political Islam who said fighters from the Syrian army’s 84th Division, which reportedly includes foreign Islamist fighters, could also be transferred. The newspaper said the contingent could include Uyghurs, Uzbeks, Tajiks, Afghans, Chechens, Albanians and Arabs of various nationalities.

The report suggested that relocating foreign fighters could serve Damascus’ interest in reducing the security burden posed by foreign armed groups while consolidating control over the new military establishment. It also cited concerns among observers in Sanaa that transferring such fighters to Yemen could deepen sectarian divisions and prolong the conflict.

A military source in Sanaa told Al-Akhbar that any Syrian involvement in the war against the Houthis Yemen “would not be official.”

“Sending masses of extremists is an intelligence operation that governments do not acknowledge, because it conflicts with international law,” the source said, arguing that the use of foreign armed groups would amount to covert intervention.

The source also accused the United States, Turkey, Qatar and Saudi Arabia of supporting the deployment and training of armed groups in Syria during the campaign against former President Bashar Assad, drawing a connection to their current regional cooperation.

The newspaper’s report comes as Saudi Arabia seeks to strengthen its military position against the Houthis, who have continued attacks on Saudi targets while advancing on fronts in Yemen. However, it remains unclear whether the reported Syrian arrangements will result in an actual deployment or whether the scale of the proposed force could be achieved.

Syria’s fractured and under-equipped military is unlikely to change the course of the war in Yemen. Still, participation could carry profound consequences for Damascus, exposing it to retaliation by Iran and its regional allies, undermining the new government’s promise to keep Syria out of foreign conflicts, and threatening the country’s fragile economic recovery.

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Russia’s Rostec is Developing Faster Attack Drones With Longer Range

Click to see full-size image. (Rostec)

Russia’s state-owned Rostec corporation is developing a new generation of attack drones designed to fly farther, faster and with greater autonomy, building on its Dan-T loitering munition, which the company says has capabilities comparable to cruise missiles.

“As technology advances, the distinction between a drone, a cruise missile, and a loitering munition is disappearing. The Dan-T is already a full-fledged cruise missile in terms of its capabilities. The Rostec State Corporation is working to advance this field, and several other comparable projects are underway. These systems are becoming increasingly intelligent – all of them feature elements of artificial intelligence to one degree or another.

The next models, which we will be able to present as early as next year, will fly farther, faster, and will be considerably more advanced in terms of intelligence,” Rostec said in a video presentation of its latest Dan-T loitering munition on October 21.

The corporation presented the munition at the El Alamein International Airshow 2026 in Egypt, saying further models could be unveiled next year.

The Dan-T has a reported range of up to 450 kilometers and weighs up to 270 kilograms. Powered by a compact turbojet engine, it is designed to operate autonomously after release from its carrier.

The munition is designed to approach targets at speeds of up to 500 kilometers per hour while following the terrain and using a low-observable flight profile intended to reduce the risk of interception by air defense systems.

It can be deployed from Russian-designed warplanes, including the Yak-130 and MiG-29 jets and the Mi-28N and Mi-8 helicopters. Rostec also said the system can be integrated with foreign combat aircraft.

The Dan-T’s effectiveness had been demonstrated in hundreds of successful launches against targets during the Russian special military operation in Ukraine.

Russia plans to produce up to 2,000 Dan-T munitions by the end of 2026 and increase output to as many as 14,000 next, according to recent Ukrainian media reports.

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