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Esclusiva: l’enigma Pakistan-Arabia Saudita-Yemen-Iran

By: A A
10 October 2026 at 22:56

Il titolo definitivo dell’intera vicenda, tuttavia, è che la Casa dei Saud sta attaccando Ansarallah per proteggere il culto della morte in Asia occidentale

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Cominciamo con alcune informazioni esclusive. Giovedì, Yahya Ali al-Ra’i, presidente della Camera dei Rappresentanti con sede a Sana’a sotto il controllo di Ansarallah, ha consegnato una lettera a Sardar Ayaz Sadiq, presidente dell’Assemblea Nazionale del Pakistan, richiedendo la mediazione pakistana tra Ansarallah e Riyadh.

Ra’i, figura ampiamente rispettata, ricopre la carica di presidente a Sana’a dal 2008. Sadiq ha iniziato il suo attuale mandato come presidente a Islamabad nel marzo 2024. Questo canale parlamentare diretto riveste un’enorme importanza come apertura diplomatica – poiché il Pakistan si trova ad affrontare enormi pressioni, sia a livello interno che in tutto il mondo islamico, riguardo ai suoi reali impegni relativi allo scontro tra Arabia Saudita e Yemen, come stabilito dall’Alleanza per la Difesa della Mecca.

Per quanto l’intera situazione sia in realtà oscura, informazioni dirette provenienti sia da Islamabad che da Teheran, ai massimi livelli, come da me specificatamente richiesto, hanno stabilito quattro punti chiave: Sembra che sia così – per ora.

Islamabad è irremovibile nel sostenere che il Pakistan non attaccherà Ansarallah e non impiegherà truppe a tal fine. L’intesa raggiunta a Riyadh la scorsa settimana escludeva l’ingresso nel territorio yemenita. Le forze pakistane dovrebbero rimanere al di fuori di qualsiasi offensiva terrestre contro Ansarallah.

Il Pakistan stava già mediando tra Riyadh e Sana’a attraverso Teheran. Il feldmaresciallo Asim Munir ha personalmente richiesto al ministro degli Esteri iraniano Araghchi di esercitare l’influenza dell’Iran su Ansarallah, avvalendosi dei contatti di Araghchi sia con Islamabad che con Riyadh. Il Ministero degli Esteri pakistano non ha smentito l’esistenza di questo canale diplomatico.

Il Pakistan sarebbe tenuto a difendere il territorio saudita in virtù dei propri impegni nell’ambito dell’Alleanza per la Difesa della Mecca. I dispiegamenti finalizzati alla protezione dei confini e alla difesa contro droni e missili lanciati dalle Forze Armate yemenite rientrano in questo quadro. Il problema è se alcuni consiglieri pakistani siano già dispiegati in territorio yemenita. Se il Pakistan avesse anche solo pochi «consiglieri» ad Aden e truppe da qualche parte nel nord dello Yemen, al confine con l’Arabia Saudita, ciò costituirebbe già una violazione delle sue promesse.

Le forze pakistane dovrebbero essere in grado di difendersi da sole – è una conseguenza naturale del territorio. Si tratta di una contingenza dichiarata; non di una previsione di ritorsione. Almeno un ufficiale pakistano è stato ucciso in Arabia Saudita senza che il Pakistan reagisse con una ritorsione. Ciò denota moderazione – almeno per ora.

Transito attraverso lo Stretto di Hormuz: utilizzare il CIPS e pagare in rial

Sul più ampio fronte USA-Iran, le mosse diplomatiche confermano quanto abbiamo riportato negli ultimi giorni riguardo al Protocollo di Transizione. Il Pakistan, infatti, è determinato a mantenere i rapporti sia con Riyadh che con Teheran, parallelamente a un coordinamento costante con Pechino. Dopotutto, la Cina sostiene pienamente la mediazione pakistana; e Araghchi continua a dialogare con Munir, come ha fatto in seguito ai colloqui con Wang Yi a Pechino.

Nel frattempo, sul fronte di Washington, le speculazioni sono febbrili su tutta la linea riguardo ai preparativi per una ripresa della guerra da parte dell’amministrazione Trump – compresi potenziali attacchi alle infrastrutture energetiche iraniane e persino, cosa piuttosto preoccupante, a obiettivi nucleari. Non vi è ancora alcuna decisione definitiva da parte dello «psicopatico/sociopatico al comando», tanto meno una data di avvio.

I rischi immediati, in ogni caso, sono sbalorditivi.

La diplomazia – anche nella sua forma surrogata – è impantanata in un vicolo cieco. Teheran rimane – e continuerà a rimanere – ancorata alle proprie condizioni attuali, specificate nel memorandum d’intesa ormai privo di significato, ma ora con l’aggiunta della minaccia di bloccare le rotte di transito lungo la costa dell’Oman che considera illegali. Washington, dal canto suo, è ossessionata dall’ottenere vaste concessioni in materia nucleare. All’inizio di questa settimana, abbiamo confermato che il Consiglio Supremo di Sicurezza Nazionale (SNSC) di Teheran ha preso due decisioni di grande rilevanza.

  1. Teheran ha deciso di riscuotere il pedaggio di transito nello Stretto di Hormuz esclusivamente in valuta iraniana. Niente yuan, niente criptovalute. In realtà, tramite un meccanismo collegato al CIPS, il sistema cinese di pagamento e compensazione, aggirando il dollaro statunitense. Si utilizza il CIPS per acquistare elettronicamente yuan, convertirli in rial e pagare il pedaggio. Le entrate derivanti dal transito nello Stretto di Hormuz, dopotutto, rappresentano una delle poche fonti di valuta forte rimaste a Teheran. Il nuovo meccanismo rafforzerà sicuramente il valore del rial.
  2. Attraverso il Pakistan, Teheran ha comunicato a Witkoff, il «Bismarck» del settore immobiliare di Trump, che l’Iran non si smuoverà di un millimetro dalle proprie condizioni per un accordo negoziato – ed è pienamente preparato a qualsiasi possibile offensiva statunitense. E questo dopo che J.D. Vance ha avanzato un’ulteriore condizione sull’arricchimento nucleare: una riduzione «significativa» e «sostanziale». Ciò blocca il dossier nucleare e rende quasi impossibile una formula di risoluzione rapida.

Il punto fondamentale è che la spirale di escalation potrebbe sfuggire al controllo in un batter d’occhio.

La “Tempesta yemenita in arrivo 1.0” è già in atto

Sul fronte saudita-yemenita, le Forze Armate yemenite si stanno dimostrando assolutamente spietate. La “Tempesta yemenita in arrivo 1.0” è già in atto.

I danni alla raffineria di Jeddah, vicino a Yanbu, sono ingenti. Ansarallah sta colpendo contemporaneamente la costa orientale e quella occidentale dell’Arabia Saudita, oltre all’oleodotto est-ovest che le collega.

A tutti gli effetti, Sana’a sta prendendo di mira l’intera infrastruttura chiave di Riyadh. Il «paracadute» difensivo statunitense è una farsa: le batterie PAC-3 e Patriot rimaste sono inutili contro i missili balistici yemeniti.

Le truppe saudite potrebbero ammontare, nella migliore delle ipotesi, a 75.000 unità, più 125.000 della Guardia Nazionale. Le Forze Armate yemenite dispongono di almeno 350.000 uomini, che possono essere facilmente portati a 800.000. Aspettarsi un «aiuto» dai petrol-sceicchi del CCG non è nemmeno degno di essere definito uno scherzo.

Le Forze Armate yemenite hanno inoltre lanciato due missili balistici e droni esplosivi in direzione dell’aeroporto internazionale di Aden. Ansarallah ha dichiarato che l’obiettivo erano i rifornimenti militari sauditi appena giunti al Campo di Badr, il quartier generale dei mercenari adiacente all’aeroporto. È stato ucciso un numero non specificato di ufficiali e funzionari sauditi di alto rango – forse anche alcuni pakistani.

Da parte sua, anche la Turchia sta per schierare truppe, velivoli e sistemi di difesa aerea sul territorio saudita. Queste forze turche potrebbero, in teoria, proteggere Riyadh, le città sante e l’oleodotto Est-Ovest. Ankara, proprio come Islamabad, insiste nel sostenere di non avere alcuna intenzione di entrare in guerra nello Yemen.

La rapida liberazione da parte delle Forze Armate yemenite della costa occidentale vicino al Mar Rosso ha inoltre reso chiarissimo come la cosiddetta «coalizione» saudita – in realtà una banda di proxy e mercenari – stesse schierando di fatto dei terroristi fin dall’inizio.

Ansarallah ha recuperato una grande quantità di passaporti stranieri – in particolare provenienti dal Kuwait, dal Qatar, dalla Turchia e dalla Siria – appartenenti a sicari dell’ISIS e di Al-Qaeda. Chiamatela pure la Legione della Terror Inc.

È sempre la solita storia. Il Qatar e la Turchia, di comune accordo, hanno strumentalizzato il trasferimento di miliziani dell’ISIS e dei salafiti-jihadisti dalla Siria e dall’Iraq: questi sono stati accolti nello Yemen dal Partito Islah. La Turchia è stata la principale via di transito; almeno 2.100 di questi membri dell’ISIS sono turchi.

AQAP è tornata! Già nel lontano 2020, Ansarallah aveva sequestrato documenti, mappe e video che mostravano jihadisti dell’ISIS/Daesh e di Al-Qaeda, direttamente sostenuti da Riyadh, mentre vagavano per lo Yemen, con i miliziani catturati che confessavano di essere stati pagati, armati e sostenuti logisticamente dai sauditi.Ora è già in atto una nuova incarnazione dell’ex Al-Qaeda nella Penisola Arabica (AQAP) – attraverso almeno 20.000 mercenari terroristi del Daesh/takfiri “importati” dalla Siria. Essi saranno inviati nel governatorato di Aden – in seguito alla richiesta, anzi alla pretesa dello stesso MbS, pienamente approvata dall’amministrazione Trump e dal suo vassallo tagliagole diventato presidente a Damasco, l’ex membro dell’ISIS al-Jolani.

Il titolo definitivo dell’intera vicenda, tuttavia, è che la Casa dei Saud sta attaccando Ansarallah per proteggere il culto della morte in Asia occidentale. Controllando Bab al-Mandab, Ansarallah isola di fatto il porto israeliano di Eilat. Ciò era già accaduto in precedenza durante il genocidio di Gaza. Riyadh era furiosa perché aveva stretto accordi per il progetto NEOM – ora praticamente accantonato – che avrebbe collegato Eilat una volta che gli Accordi di Abramo trumpiani fossero entrati in vigore. Considerando il quadro d’insieme, una singola scintilla potrebbe ancora scatenare l’inferno. Tra le possibilità figurano: un attacco yemenita contro l’Arabia Saudita che causi ingenti perdite; un caos nella riscossione dei pedaggi nello Stretto di Ormuz; un attacco iraniano contro un obiettivo legato ai «petro-sceicchi» del CCG, a seguito di una provocazione americana; un attacco legato all’Iran contro una base statunitense, ancora una volta a seguito di una provocazione americana; e, soprattutto, una (dis)avventura del CENTCOM «via terra, aria e mare» imposta da un sociopatico.

Allacciate le cinture di sicurezza.

Europe’s mounting social chaos… chickens coming home to roost for proxy war against Russia

By: aletho
10 October 2026 at 21:41
Strategic Culture Foundation | October 9, 2026

The European Union is witnessing a full-blown social revolt. Governing political parties and their economic policies are held in open contempt as public protests and strikes escalate across multiple countries.

Protests, mass marches, and industrial strikes are spreading across the EU in France, Belgium, Spain, Italy, Germany, Ireland, Portugal, and other countries. The grievances are various, from students and teachers over woeful education services, to healthcare professionals and transportation workers denouncing crumby wages and pension cuts.

But at the core is a warmongering, dehumanizing system of capitalist inequality.

Unbearable living costs for basic needs, from food to housing, are driving millions onto the streets in desperation and anger at the lack of adequate political response to their concerns. As one French student said: “Too young to be listened to, old enough to be tear-gassed.”

The entire political system is being brought into disrepute for its dysfunction and indifference towards meeting rudimentary human needs. Then, infuriating all the more, are lies from the elite rulers and their propaganda media about “national defense and threat of war from Russia.”

In Spain this week, an 87-year-old frail woman known as Maricarmen died in hospital after she was evicted from her Madrid home because she could not pay the extortionate rent increase. Her plight has come to galvanize a nationwide protest against Spain’s housing crisis, a crisis that is repeated across every European country. Protesters shouted furiously that the pitiful old woman was “murdered by the state and corporations.”

In France, the brutality of police against student protests has shocked the nation and the world. Nearly 7,000 young people have been arrested, as riot police tear gas and shoot at largely peaceful rallies. Students gathering at the Place de la Bastille in Paris and other cities vow that they will not back down. One student had his hand blown off by a police stun grenade while another teenager lost an eye from a rubber bullet fired at close range.

The Place de la Bastille is where the French Revolution manifested in 1798 against a hated aristocracy amid abject misery. Today, the tensions are boiling towards another momentous rebellion, this time inspiring again similar movements across Europe.

These protests and the inhumane suffering that underlie them are channeling uprisings all over the EU.

There is a palpable sense that populations en masse have had enough of decades of inequality and chronic deprivation inflicted by capitalist policies that enrich a few and are enforced by governments slavishly serving the interests of capital over the needs of the citizen majority.

Western media reports talk about “cash-strapped” governments under pressure from bond markets to reduce record debt levels while workers, students and pensioners demand more public investment and relief from economic hardship.

That is a misleading partial portrayal of the problem. Omitted is the crucial backdrop that European governments are directing vast economic resources towards militarism and the proxy war in Ukraine against Russia. That is what is causing the “cash-strapped governments.” In other words, their declared fiscal straits are a policy choice, not some mysterious dilemma.

The social crisis sweeping across Europe is also seen in the United States and other Western-aligned nations. The background is a failed economic system that no longer provides a modicum of acceptable living conditions. The problem has been decades in the making from growing inequality and diminishing political representation. Today it is even questionable if Western states are democracies, controlled as they are by corporate oligarchies.

Nevertheless, the social crisis that is unfolding across Europe has been intensified and amplified by European political rulers operating in a relentless war mode against Russia.

The European Union has pumped hundreds of billions of euros into Ukraine over the past four years to prop up a NeoNazi regime run by a corrupt dictatorship – all for the objective of defeating Russia. The EU leaders – many of them unelected, like Ursula von der Leyen, Kaja Kallas and António Costa – are driven by an obsessive Russophobia. But that is only part of the explanation.

Other elected leaders and parties like France’s Macron and Germany’s Merz are also despised for their elitism and delusions of grandeur. Merz declares that he wants to make Germany the strongest military in Europe, in total tin-ear deafness to his nation’s economic and social problems and the sinister historical connotations of resurrecting Nazi Germany. Meanwhile, as his government suffers electoral defeat after defeat, European elites deprecate German voters as being blind because they dare to choose parties that are opposed to war with Russia.

There are many grounds for the Europe-wide contempt of ruling parties. Inequality, poverty, unemployment, soaring living costs, declining wages, deteriorating public services. Uncontrolled immigration amid the pressure on inadequate public resources is another cause for grievance. Europe’s complicity in the Israeli genocidal war on Palestinians, and Europe’s complicity in Trump’s aggression towards Iran, Yemen, Cuba, and so on, are other factors.

However, the bogus narrative that governments are “cash-strapped” is a cause for immense public disgust. There are plenty of economic resources to meet public needs. It’s a question of those resources not being permitted to create just and humane societies under the prevailing capitalist system with its priority of enriching a tiny elite class.

The conditions of “tight budgets” and “austerity for the masses” are created by deliberate policies of militarism and fuelling a proxy war in Ukraine.

European “leaders” and their NATO lobbyists like Mark Rutte demand hundreds of billions of euros to boost military industries while at the same time calling for draconian cuts in public spending and social welfare in order to pay for this reckless militarism. The EU is “lending” an additional €90 billion over the next two years alone just to prop up the corrupt regime in Kiev so that it can keep fighting a futile war with Russia. The perverse priority is driven by the military-industrial complex and its corporate investors. It is also driven by an ideological, propagandized mindset that demonizes Russia as an enemy. President Putin and other Russian voices have repeatedly stated that they do not want war with Europe. They say the conflict in Ukraine has root causes that can be resolved through diplomatic engagement. Why are European politicians implacably opposed to peace?

A major factor is covering for internal political and economic failure of the European system. The EU’s economies, as with those in the U.S. and other Western states, are bankrupt dystopias in terms of delivering on social and democratic needs. The failure has been compounded by the costs of war in Ukraine.

That failure is criminal and fatal for the politicians and governments who have overseen the policies. Thus, the political class, including the propaganda news media, cannot admit their criminal policies.

In the face of their own internal contradictions, the European political elites are seeking a solution by externalizing Russia as an enemy. This is the same modus operandi that European rulers have used for the past century and more, unleashing two world wars as a result.

These criminal politicians and their dysfunctional economic system are again pushing war as their escape plan for survival at the expense of millions of lives and at the risk of starting a third world war, one that this time around could involve catastrophic nuclear nemesis.

It is damning of virtually every European government, including primarily the British, that there are no calls for diplomacy and political settlement with Russia. They are committed to waging war on Russia to absolve themselves from the social devastation they are responsible for.

One positive thing, though, is that increasing numbers of people can see through the chicanery and lies. A German student placard summed it up: “We won’t fight your wars… Education not bombs!”

A day of reckoning is imminent. Criminal political leaders and their warmongering system are exposed like never before and in a way that demands total revolt as a proper solution. The consequences are not to be externalized this time. Chickens are coming home to roost, as Malcom X once said.

US-Russia Diesel Deal Becomes Massive Defeat for Ukraine

By: aletho
10 October 2026 at 21:11
Sputnik – 10.10.2026

The recent phone conversation between Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump, and the diesel deal they struck, are the most important events in the US-Russia relations since the summit in Anchorage, Dmitry Suslov, deputy director of the Center for European and International Studies at Russia’s Higher School of Economics, tells Sputnik.

The diesel deal marks an important shift in the US’ stance on the Ukrainian conflict. “Until now, the Trump administration maintained that any sanctions removal and any practical cooperation with Russia, including cooperation on energy, is only possible after the Ukrainian conflict is resolved or after a ceasefire is achieved. And now we see that the Trump administration deviated from this stance.”

“The sanctions are waived for a long time, until April 7, and the US will commence mass importing of Russian diesel unrelated to the resolution of the conflict in Ukraine.”

The diesel deal is not related in any way to the energy and port ceasefire that Volodymyr Zelensky and his EU backers desperately seek, which is highlighted by Zelensky’s hysterical reaction to this agreement.

The deal may be the beginning of a broader pressure campaign by the Trump administration on the Ukrainian regime, to ensure that Ukraine agrees to Russia’s conditions for ceasefire.

Given the anonymous US officials warnings that the US may halt intelligence support to Ukraine if the latter continues hitting Russian oil refineries, it appears that the Trump administration is becoming increasingly upset with Zelensky.

“We are witnessing the confirmation of Western media reports about Trump being angry at Zelensky whom he asked six times to halt strikes against Russian refineries, only for Zelensky to refuse him each time. And now Trump makes this diesel deal with Vladimir Putin.”

The Trump administration apparently realized that Zelensky’s long-range strikes campaign against Russia backfired. “It drastically improved Russia’s situation and damaged Ukraine’s resilience due to the scale of Russia’s retaliation”.

Suslov also suggests that Zelensky seems to be banking on US Democrats winning the midterms, thus turning Trump into a ‘lame duck.’

However, even though Zelensky may feel himself safe hurling insults at Trump, it may have serious consequences as the POTUS will still be in charge of matters such as further arms sales to Ukraine.

“So if Zelensky enters into a serious clinch with him, Trump will be making such decisions not in Zelensky’s favo

Ukraine shares its fortification know-how with Estonia’s new defense minister, weeks after 70-million-euro shells scandal felled his predecessor

10 October 2026 at 17:43

Ukrainian Defense Minister Yevhenii Khmara, during a meeting with Estonian Defense Minister Martin Herem in Kyiv, on 10 October 2026. Source: Ukraine's Defense Ministry.

Ukraine is offering Estonia something no ally can buy off the shelf: how to fortify against Russia, learned under fire. Ukraine’s Defense Ministry announced, following a meeting between Defense Minister Yevhenii Khmara and his Estonian counterpart, Martin Herem, that Kyiv and Tallinn plan to develop joint defense projects, share data, and establish joint ventures.

Both sides agreed to strengthen their defense cooperation in a declaration signed in June, according to the President’s Office. The partnership is gaining momentum as German intelligence warns that Russia may be preparing military action against the Baltic states, Welt reported.

At the talks, the two sides went over the battlefield situation, Ukraine’s priority needs, and practical steps to deepen the partnership, the ministry said.

Ukraine’s war experience, packed for export

Ukraine’s experience of modern war was a central theme of the meeting, and it can already help Estonia strengthen its own defense against new threats, the ministry reports. During the visit, the Ukrainian delegation walked the Estonian representatives through its work on modern fortifications, including underground shelters.

“Ukraine is scaling up fortification solutions based on real war experience. We already know how to build defenses and adapt them to new threats. I am sure this expertise will be useful to Estonia,” Khmara said.

A debt of thanks to a steady backer

Khmara thanked Estonia for its consistent help, singling out its decision to give 0.25% of GDP each year to support Ukraine. He also noted Estonia’s leading role in the IT coalition, a group of states that helps build Ukraine’s military communications and cyber capabilities, as well as its active work with other partners.

The meeting was one of Herem’s first with Kyiv as defense minister. A former commander of Estonia’s armed forces, he took the post on 16 September after Hanno Pevkur resigned over a 70-million-euro procurement scandal involving artillery shells meant for Ukraine, Euronews reported.

The minister confirmed Ukraine is ready to deepen practical defense cooperation with Estonia and to work on joint solutions that strengthen the security of both countries.

L’Europe en tant que civilisation multipolaire et la diplomatie des » Logoi » !

By: A A
10 October 2026 at 17:00

Du mythe d’Europe à la double identité du Rimland, de la Méditerranée en tant que « mer-cœur » à la tradition occultée de de Gaulle et de Douguine, le continent doit se souvenir qu’il est né d’une traversée.

L’époque que nous vivons

Les Grecs racontaient l’histoire d’une jeune femme nommée Europe, fille d’un roi de Tyr, sur la côte de l’actuel Liban. Un matin, alors qu’elle jouait au bord de la mer, un taureau blanc émergea des flots. Elle monta sur son dos, et le taureau la transporta à travers les eaux jusqu’en Crète. C’est d’elle, disaient les poètes, qu’un continent tout entier a tiré son nom. [1]

Ce mythe est plus riche qu’il n’y paraît. Le nom « Europe » vient d’Asie et a traversé la Méditerranée sur le dos d’un dieu. Notre continent porte le nom d’une étrangère, d’une voyageuse, d’une jeune fille venue de l’autre rive. L’Europe est née d’une rencontre : avant d’être un territoire, elle fut une traversée.

Les Européens ont oublié cette histoire. Depuis quatre-vingts ans, on leur répète que l’Europe est un ensemble d’institutions, un marché commun, un périmètre de sécurité administré depuis l’autre côté de l’océan ; que l’Europe, c’est tout simplement « l’Occident ». Beaucoup ont fini par le croire.

La thèse défendue ici est différente. L’Europe est une civilisation — ou, plus précisément, plusieurs civilisations réunies sous un même toit. Et dans le monde multipolaire qui émerge, cette demeure n’est ni une province ni une périphérie. Elle se trouve au centre de la carte, et le nouvel ordre ne saurait être complet sans elle.

Une ère a pris fin. L’ordre unipolaire apparu après 1991 — celui que Francis Fukuyama s’était empressé de qualifier de « fin de l’histoire » [2] — se délite sous les yeux de tous. L’histoire n’était pas terminée. Elle patientait.

De nouveaux centres de gravité ont émergé en Eurasie, en Asie, en Afrique et en Amérique latine. Des capitales dont d’autres parlaient depuis des siècles s’expriment désormais en leur nom propre. Même à Washington, le ton a changé : la Stratégie de sécurité nationale des États-Unis pour 2025 évoque ouvertement les intérêts, les charges et les transactions, et considère les anciens engagements multilatéraux comme des coûts à renégocier.[3] Le patron présente la facture.

Pour l’Europe, la question n’est donc plus de savoir si le monde multipolaire adviendra. Il est déjà là. La véritable question est de savoir si l’Europe y entrera en tant que sujet ou en tant qu’objet : si elle écrira l’histoire ou si elle sera le lieu où d’autres écriront la leur.

Dans *La Théorie du monde multipolaire*, Alexandre Douguine fait remarquer que la plupart de ceux qui évoquent la multipolarité n’en ont aucune théorie.[4] Ils imaginent un « noyau » du monde — les États-Unis, l’Europe et le bloc occidental — entouré de concurrents en pleine ascension. Dans ce schéma, l’Europe siège à la table de l’ancien centre en déclin.

Il faut rejeter cette position. L’Europe n’a jamais été véritablement maîtresse du monde unipolaire ; elle en fut le premier protectorat. Dans son manuel de géopolitique, Douguine écrit qu’après 1945, l’Europe occidentale était placée sous contrôle américain tout autant que l’Europe orientale l’était sous contrôle soviétique.[5] Les méthodes de gouvernance différaient, mais non le degré de dépendance. De nombreux Européens, de part et d’autre du rideau de fer, ont vécu cette division comme une tragédie, et certains ont tenté d’y mettre fin. Lorsque la France du général de Gaulle a quitté le commandement militaire intégré de l’OTAN en 1966, elle n’a commis aucun acte hostile à l’encontre de quiconque. Elle a accompli un acte de mémoire : l’Europe se souvenait qu’elle possédait une volonté propre.

Qu’est-ce que l’Europe ?

Si vous posez la question à Bruxelles, la réponse évoquera des compétences, des directives et des procédures. Si vous interrogez un géographe, vous obtiendrez des coordonnées : une péninsule bordée par l’Atlantique, la Méditerranée et les monts Oural. La première réponse relève de la bureaucratie ; la seconde, d’une carte sans légende. Aucune des deux n’explique pourquoi un berger sicilien, un charpentier bavarois et un moine du mont Athos appartiennent, au sens profond, à une même histoire.

Les eurasistes russes — et Piotr Savitski plus que quiconque — aimaient à dire que l’Europe n’est rien d’autre que le « promontoire occidental » de l’Eurasie. [6] De nombreux analystes occidentaux tiennent le même discours, mais avec moins d’affection : un petit cap rattaché à l’Asie.

L’image est recevable. Mais sur les caps, les hommes ont de tout temps érigé des phares. Au cap Sounion, les Athéniens bâtirent le temple de Poséidon, silhouette blanche se détachant sur la mer, pour que les marins sachent où commençait la Grèce. À la pointe de la Galice, les Romains nommèrent un cap *Finis Terrae* : la fin de la terre. Le promontoire est le point où un continent se tourne vers l’extérieur, où la terre dialogue avec la mer et le monde au-delà. La taille modeste de l’Europe sur la carte a toujours été la condition même de sa portée.

Au sein de ce promontoire, il n’existe pas une civilisation unique. On y trouve au moins quatre axes majeurs, dans une tension constante et féconde.

Il y a l’axe méditerranéen : Athènes et Rome, le droit et la philosophie, Byzance et la chrétienté latine, l’humanisme de la Renaissance né de la rencontre entre la théologie chrétienne et la science préservée et développée dans le monde islamique.

Il y a l’axe continental : le monde franc et germanique, le Saint-Empire romain germanique, l’université médiévale, la longue lignée de pensée allant de Kant et Hegel jusqu’à Heidegger, le vieux rêve d’une *Mitteleuropa* s’étendant de l’Atlantique à la steppe.

Il y a l’axe oriental : les peuples slaves, le christianisme orthodoxe, l’héritage de Byzance transmis par Kiev et Moscou — une Europe pleinement européenne, et pourtant distincte de la modernité occidentale. Il y a aussi l’axe du Nord : les mondes scandinave et balte, avec leurs assemblées, leur sens du droit communautaire et leur proximité avec la beauté rude de la nature.

Douguine, dans le sillage de Heidegger, évoque le *Dasein* des peuples — la manière singulière dont chaque peuple existe au monde — et le *Logos* de chaque peuple, ce qui lui insuffle la vie « non seulement sur le plan biologique, mais aussi sur les plans ethnosociologique et métaphysique »[7]. L’Europe ne possède pas un *Logos* unique : elle en compte plusieurs. Elle a toujours été, en elle-même, un monde multipolaire en miniature.

Telle est la première thèse de cet essai. La pluralité qu’appelle aujourd’hui la planète entière, l’Europe la porte déjà en elle. Elle n’a pas besoin d’importer la multipolarité. Elle doit s’en souvenir.

Terre et mer

Pour comprendre pourquoi l’Europe occupe une place centrale, il faut remonter à l’opposition la plus ancienne de la géopolitique. Halford Mackinder l’a perçue, Carl Schmitt y a réfléchi et Douguine l’a systématisée : l’opposition entre la civilisation de la Mer et la civilisation de la Terre, entre thalassocratie et tellurocratie.[8]

La civilisation de la Mer est mobile, mercantile et individualiste ; elle appréhende le monde en termes de routes, de ports et de prix. La civilisation de la Terre est enracinée, communautaire et hiérarchique ; elle le mesure en termes de devoirs, de générations et de sacré. Il ne s’agit pas là de simples catégories militaires. Elles façonnent le droit, la religion, la philosophie et même la manière dont une famille s’attable pour le dîner du dimanche.

Mackinder situait l’origine de cette opposition en Méditerranée, dans les guerres opposant Rome à Carthage.[9] Douguine rappelle qu’à ce moment-là, la civilisation occidentale se trouvait à la croisée des chemins : fallait-il fonder une civilisation suivant la voie maritime — celle de Carthage — ou la voie terrestre — celle de Rome ? Chesterton faisait remarquer que Carthage signifiait littéralement « la Nouvelle Cité ». C’était une colonie fondée par des marchands venus de Tyr et de Sidon ; l’écrivain anglais la comparait — non sans arrière-pensée — à New York et à la Nouvelle-Zélande. Carthage a chuté, écrivait-il, parce qu’elle est restée fidèle à sa propre philosophie jusqu’au bout, et que son dieu a fini par dévorer ses enfants.[10]

Selon l’interprétation de Mackinder, les guerres puniques ne prennent jamais véritablement fin : elles resurgissent à chaque époque sous de nouveaux noms.[11]

Quelle est la position de l’Europe dans cette guerre perpétuelle ? Douguine apporte ici un éclairage que je considère comme décisif. L’Europe appartient à ce que les géopolitologues appellent le *Rimland*, la vaste ceinture côtière de l’Eurasie [12] ; or, le *Rimland* possède une double identité : il peut servir la Mer ou servir la Terre. C’est pourquoi, écrit Douguine, l’histoire européenne ne se résume pas au libre jeu d’États souverains s’entrechoquant comme des atomes, mais constitue « un champ unique traversé par des ondes générées par deux centres géopolitiques opposés ; un champ parcouru par les fils d’or du destin géopolitique ». [13]

Venise et Gênes ont parcouru toutes les mers ; les plaines de Pologne et de Bohême ainsi que les forêts d’Allemagne ont enraciné nos peuples dans le sol. L’Europe a le navire et la charrue dans le sang. C’est précisément pour cette raison que quiconque a cherché à dominer le monde a d’abord dû prendre le contrôle de l’Europe.

Dans un essai sur la Méditerranée, j’ai écrit que Rome est, en un certain sens, occupée par les émissaires de Carthage.[14] Carthage s’est déplacée. Elle ne siège plus sur la rive africaine : elle se trouve de l’autre côté de l’Atlantique et gouverne notre mer intérieure depuis l’extérieur. Je ne dis pas cela par haine envers quiconque. Je le dis parce qu’un peuple qui ignore qui gouverne sa mer ne peut gouverner son propre avenir.

Pourquoi l’Europe est au centre

Il reste à démontrer pourquoi l’Europe n’est pas simplement un pôle parmi d’autres — dont un monde multipolaire pourrait aisément se passer — mais un acteur indispensable. Il y a à cela quatre raisons.

La première est géographique, et les géopoliticiens de la mer l’ont compris avant tout le monde. La célèbre formule de Mackinder énonce : « Qui domine l’Europe orientale commande le Heartland ; qui contrôle le Heartland contrôle l’Île-Monde ; qui contrôle l’Île-Monde contrôle le monde. » Toute la pyramide de la puissance mondiale repose sur un socle européen. Nicholas Spykman, le stratège qui a jeté les bases intellectuelles de l’OTAN, a insisté — comme le note Douguine — sur l’importance du facteur intellectuel pour lier l’Europe occidentale à l’Amérique du Nord. [15] Ils avaient compris que l’Europe se conquiert d’abord dans les esprits avant de l’être sur le terrain ; c’est pourquoi ils ne l’ont jamais lâchée. Un monde multipolaire dans lequel l’Europe resterait captive préserverait l’ancien ordre unipolaire en son cœur même, au point de pivot entre l’Atlantique et l’Eurasie.

La seconde raison est historique. L’Europe a donné au monde la grammaire de l’ordre international moderne. Le système westphalien, né en 1648 à l’issue de la guerre de Trente Ans, ne concernait à l’origine que les puissances européennes ; les colonies, comme le souligne Douguine, étaient traitées comme de simples appendices. C’est de l’Europe qu’ont émergé l’État souverain, l’équilibre des puissances et même la prétention d’une civilisation à l’universalité. Schmitt l’a appelé le *Jus Publicum Europaeum*, ce droit public européen qui, durant trois siècles, a donné au monde entier son *Nomos*, son ordre fondamental.[16]

Ceux qui ont élaboré ce cadre peuvent le réécrire. La critique de l’universalisme occidental ne peut s’arrêter aux frontières de l’Europe, car c’est en Europe que cet universalisme est né. Si l’Europe n’est pas la première à dépasser l’idée que ses propres valeurs constituent l’étalon de toute l’humanité, cette vieille prétention survivra en son lieu d’origine, et toutes les autres civilisations devront continuer à s’en défendre. Seule une Europe ayant redécouvert sa propre pluralité peut dire au monde, avec autorité : nous avons eu tort de croire qu’il n’existait qu’une seule voie, et nous sommes les premiers à renoncer à cette erreur.

Schmitt lui-même a tiré cette conclusion et a signalé aux peuples d’Europe et d’Eurasie ce qu’il appelait l’impératif des grands espaces : le droit des peuples à organiser leurs propres grands espaces face à l’universalisme et à l’impérialisme, quelle que soit leur origine. [17] Douguine observe que l’Union européenne elle-même est, par essence, un « grand espace » dont le statut demeure incertain. L’Union est une ébauche. La question est de savoir qui tient la plume.

La troisième raison est celle par laquelle nous avons commencé : l’Europe est déjà un monde multipolaire en miniature. Durant des siècles, catholiques et orthodoxes, Latins et Slaves, peuples germaniques et méditerranéens ont appris — souvent dans la douleur — à vivre côte à côte sans se confondre les uns avec les autres. L’Europe connaît de l’intérieur le prix et les bienfaits de la coexistence avec la différence. Aucune autre civilisation n’a dû apprendre cette leçon aussi souvent, à travers tant de guerres et tant de réconciliations. C’est précisément l’expérience dont un monde multipolaire a besoin.

La quatrième raison réside dans sa position entre les pôles. L’Europe borde l’Atlantique et le cœur continental eurasien ; par la Méditerranée, elle jouxte l’Afrique et le Moyen-Orient ; et par l’Arctique — qui s’ouvre sous un ciel plus chaud — elle se reliera aux routes septentrionales vers l’Asie. Dans la vision développée par Douguine, l’Europe et la Russie-Eurasie demeurent deux pôles distincts, deux entités liées par un destin commun au sein du vaste espace continental — contiguës sur le plan géographique et culturel, mais indépendantes. Le géopolitologue autrichien Jordis von Lohausen, que Douguine a longuement étudié, allait encore plus loin : il jugeait inconcevable un avenir pour l’Europe sans la Russie, et une Russie sans l’Europe géopolitiquement incomplète.[18]

Je sais tout le poids de ces mots en ces temps de guerre et de méfiance, et je ne prétends pas que les blessures de notre continent soient anodines. Mais précisément parce que les gouvernements ont cessé de s’écouter, les peuples ne doivent pas cesser de se parler.

La tradition occultée

Rien de tout cela n’est une invention. Il s’agit de retrouver un courant de pensée que l’Europe officielle a préféré oublier.

Après la Seconde Guerre mondiale, rappelle Douguine, la pensée géopolitique européenne s’est scindée en différents courants. D’un côté, l’euro-atlantisme pur, qui acceptait la primauté américaine comme l’ordre naturel des choses. De l’autre, ce qu’il appelle l’euro-continentalisme : la conviction que l’Europe doit s’affirmer par elle-même, forte de sa propre culture, de ses intérêts économiques et énergétiques, et de son propre système de sécurité. Charles de Gaulle évoquait une Europe s’étendant de l’Atlantique à l’Oural. Alain de Benoist a résumé le sentiment de toute une génération dans la formule « ni Ouest ni Est, mais l’Europe », ajoutant par la suite qu’il valait mieux s’aligner sur l’Est que sur l’Ouest[19].

On peut être d’accord ou non avec chacun de ces auteurs sur bien des points ; une tradition vivante se nourrit du débat. Pris dans leur ensemble, toutefois, ils expriment clairement une chose : l’Europe de Bruxelles et de l’OTAN n’est pas la seule Europe jamais imaginée. Il en a toujours existé une autre — une Europe continentale et souveraine, ancrée dans sa propre histoire et ouverte à ses voisins. Elle n’a jamais disparu. Elle a été réduite au silence.

La mer-cœur

Revenons à la mer qui a donné son nom à l’Europe.

Dans les documents de l’OTAN, la Méditerranée constitue le « flanc sud ». Un flanc est un élément que l’on protège — la périphérie du corps, et non son cœur. Pourtant, durant trois millénaires, la Méditerranée a été le cœur de l’Ancien Monde, l’espace où Égyptiens et Phéniciens, Grecs et Romains, Arabes, Normands, Vénitiens et Ottomans se sont rencontrés, ont commercé, se sont affrontés et se sont enrichis mutuellement.

Je l’ai qualifiée de « mer-cœur » et j’ai avancé l’idée d’une Méditerranée élargie, s’étendant de l’Europe continentale au Moyen-Orient, à l’Afrique du Nord et subsaharienne, et au-delà, vers l’Extrême-Orient. [20] Sur cette mer, je crois qu’une *Pax Mediterranea* est possible : une harmonie entre les civilisations qui ont toujours peuplé ses rivages, une paix entre l’Afrique du Nord et le Croissant du Moyen-Orient, entre l’Europe du Sud et les peuples des Balkans. Une paix ouverte sur l’océan Atlantique, mais qui ne se laisse pas régir par sa puissance.

Dans l’édition italienne de *La Théorie du monde multipolaire*, Giuseppe Marro écrit que l’Italie, en raison de sa projection naturelle en Méditerranée, fait office de pont entre l’Europe occidentale, l’Asie et l’Afrique. [21] C’est effectivement le cas. L’Italie joue — ou devrait jouer — un rôle stratégique naturel dans le bassin méditerranéen. Non pas pour dominer — une leçon que notre histoire nous a déjà enseignée — mais pour servir de médiateur. Une péninsule qui s’avance dans la mer est une main tendue en signe d’amitié.

La diplomatie des *Logoi*

Qu’est-ce que la diplomatie des peuples ? C’est ce qui se produit lorsque les peuples se rencontrent sans attendre la permission de leurs bureaucraties. Une diplomatie qui vient d’en bas, mais aussi des profondeurs : de la langue, de la mémoire, de la foi, de la manière dont un peuple conçoit la vie et la mort.

Dans la pensée de Douguine, comme l’ont souligné ses interprètes italiens, le dialogue entre les civilisations constitue le grand défi de notre époque. Pour le relever, il faut une nouvelle forme d’élite : des hommes et des femmes formés à l’anthropologie culturelle et à l’étude des sociétés archaïques et traditionnelles, capables de comprendre les codes de civilisations autres que la leur et d’évoluer au sein d’une cartographie commune des significations. Dans cette optique, la diplomatie devrait privilégier la circulation des idées bien plus que la politique ou le commerce. Marro résume cette idée par une formule juste : la diplomatie devrait devenir « une profession sacrée ».

Comme nous nous en sommes éloignés ! Aujourd’hui, la diplomatie se résume trop souvent à la gestion des sanctions, à la rédaction d’ultimatums et à l’arithmétique des armements. Pourtant, l’ambassadeur était autrefois celui qui portait la parole d’un peuple à un autre, et sa personne était inviolable parce que la parole était sacrée.

La diplomatie des peuples, telle que je la conçois, est une diplomatie des *Logoi*. Elle ne demande pas à l’autre de devenir comme nous ; elle lui demande d’être pleinement lui-même, afin qu’un dialogue authentique puisse s’instaurer. Dans *Noomachia*, Douguine décrit l’avenir qu’il envisage en des termes qui pourraient servir de programme : « de nombreuses civilisations, de nombreux pôles, de nombreux centres, de nombreux systèmes de valeurs sur une même planète et au sein d’une même humanité. De nombreux mondes. » [22]

De nombreux mondes. Non pas un monde unique régi par une capitale unique, parlant une langue autorisée unique et croyant en une vérité autorisée unique, mais de nombreux mondes — et parmi eux, un monde européen qui a retrouvé sa propre voix.

Penser, se souvenir, rencontrer

Avant de bâtir de nouvelles institutions et de conclure de nouvelles alliances, une conscience nouvelle doit voir le jour. Ce qu’un peuple ne peut imaginer, il ne peut le réaliser. La première tâche est donc d’ordre intellectuel : rendre une Europe multipolaire concevable — et donc possible.

Cette tâche comporte trois dimensions. La première consiste à penser — c’est-à-dire à élaborer une théorie européenne de la multipolarité qui puise dans toute la profondeur de la pensée géopolitique du continent, de Ratzel et l’école continentale jusqu’à la géopolitique des civilisations de Schmitt et Douguine, tout en restant critique, ouverte à toutes les traditions et consciente des limites de chaque école.

La seconde consiste à se souvenir. Nous devons retrouver les traditions que le consensus atlantique a reléguées en marge : les penseurs continentaux et méditerranéens, les philosophes ayant résisté à l’universalisme libéral, ainsi que les voix d’Europe de l’Est réduites au silence à deux reprises — d’abord par la domination soviétique, puis par l’hégémonie libérale qui lui a succédé.

La troisième consiste à se rencontrer. Il nous faut des espaces où institutions, universitaires, artistes et représentants de différentes civilisations puissent dialoguer d’égal à égal : Européens avec Russes et Chinois, avec Africains et Latino-Américains, avec les peuples du monde islamique, avec l’Inde et avec le Sud global. Non pas ce « dialogue » multiculturel de courtoisie où chacun convient par avance de ne rien dire, mais une véritable rencontre entre différents *Logoi*, dont chacun ressort transformé.

Dans cette entreprise, la Méditerranée occupe une place privilégiée. Notre mer intérieure doit à nouveau être perçue comme un carrefour de civilisations et non comme une zone de gestion extérieure ; la *Pax Mediterranea* constitue un horizon d’action concret : le laboratoire régional du monde multipolaire.

Un tel projet ne prend la forme ni d’un parti politique ni d’un groupe de pression. Il revêt la forme d’un mythe, celui d’une traversée : le voyage d’Europe à travers la mer, réitéré à notre époque, où l’Europe part à la rencontre de l’autre rive et où l’autre rive vient à sa rencontre.

C’est une tâche qui se mesure en décennies, et non en années, et qui s’accomplira pour une génération qui ne la verra pas advenir. Ce n’est pas une raison pour se décourager. Les cathédrales d’Europe ont été bâties par des hommes qui savaient qu’ils ne les verraient jamais achevées. Ils les ont construites tout de même, car ils savaient pour quoi ils bâtissaient.

La traversée

Lorsque le taureau blanc l’emporta à travers la mer, Europe ne savait pas où elle allait. Elle ignorait que son nom serait un jour donné à un continent — à ses empires et à ses cathédrales, à ses crimes et à ses saints, à ses philosophes et à ses poètes.

Aujourd’hui, l’Europe se tient de nouveau au bord de l’eau. Derrière elle s’étend le vieux monde qu’elle a bâti puis perdu — celui où une civilisation unique croyait pouvoir parler au nom de l’humanité tout entière. Ce monde a vécu, et il n’y a aucune raison de le regretter. Devant elle s’ouvre une mer riche d’autres rivages, d’autres peuples, d’autres manières d’être humain.

L’Europe peut rester sur le rivage, le regard tourné vers l’Atlantique, en attendant des instructions. Ou bien elle peut entreprendre à nouveau la traversée. Non pas en conquérante cette fois, ni en missionnaire d’un modèle universel, mais telle qu’elle fut à l’origine : une voyageuse, une « hôte » — au double sens que notre langue prête à ce mot —, une civilisation née d’une rencontre.

Si elle accomplit cette traversée, le monde multipolaire trouvera le centre qui lui manque : cette civilisation qui sait mieux que toute autre ce que signifie vivre avec la différence, car elle le pratique — dans le sang comme dans le génie — depuis trois mille ans.

L’Europe n’est pas le passé du monde. Elle en est l’un des avenirs, et il appartient aux peuples de décider lequel.

Tiré de la tribune de Lorenzo Maria Pacini pour Strategic Culture

[1] Ovide, Les Métamorphoses, II, 833–875 ; voir également Moscos, Europe.
[2] F. Fukuyama, « La fin de l’histoire ? », The National Interest, 16 (1989), p. 3–18 ; puis Id., La Fin de l’histoire et le Dernier Homme, Rizzoli, Milan, 1992.
[3] La Maison-Blanche, Stratégie de sécurité nationale des États-Unis d’Amérique, Washington, D.C., décembre 2025.
[4] A. Douguine, Théorie du monde multipolaire, Evrazijskoe dviženie, Moscou, 2012 ; édition anglaise : The Theory of a Multipolar World, Arktos, Londres, 2020 ; édition italienne : Teoria del mondo multipolare, sous la direction de G. Marro, AGA, Milan, 2019. Pour les titres russes, la translittération scientifique est utilisée ; les noms des auteurs suivent la forme italienne standard.
[5] A. Douguine, Fondements de la géopolitique. L’avenir géopolitique de la Russie, Arktogeja, Moscou, 1997.
[6] Cette image revient dans les écrits réunis dans P. N. Savitski, Le Continent Eurasie, Agraf, Moscou, 1997.
[7] Ibid.
[8] C. Schmitt, Terre et mer. Une considération sur l’histoire du monde, Reclam, Leipzig, 1942 ; traduction italienne : Terra e mare, Adelphi, Milan, 2002. Pour la systématisation de Douguine : Douguine, Fondements de la géopolitique, op. cit.
[9] H. J. Mackinder, Idéaux démocratiques et réalité. Une étude sur la politique de la reconstruction, Constable, Londres, 1919.
[10] G. K. Chesterton, L’Homme éternel, Hodder & Stoughton, Londres, 1925, Partie I, chapitre VII (« La guerre des dieux et des démons ») ; traduction italienne : L’uomo eterno.
[11] Cette interprétation est citée dans Douguine, Fondements de la géopolitique, op. cit. ; le passage correspondant de Mackinder demeure inchangé.
[12] N. J. Spykman, La Géographie de la paix, Harcourt, Brace and Company, New York, 1944.
[13] Douguine, Fondements de la géopolitique, op. cit.
[14] Voir L. M. Pacini, Méditerranée multipolaire.
[15] Mackinder, Idéaux démocratiques et réalité, op. cit. Sur Spykman : N. J. Spykman, La stratégie de l’Amérique dans la politique mondiale. Les États-Unis et l’équilibre des puissances, Harcourt, Brace and Company, New York, 1942 ; et Douguine, Fondements de la géopolitique, op. cit.
[16] C. Schmitt, Le Nomos de la Terre dans le droit international du Jus Publicum Europaeum, Greven, Cologne, 1950 ; traduction italienne : Il nomos della terra nel diritto internazionale dello « jus publicum europaeum », Adelphi, Milan, 1991.
[17] C. Schmitt, Ordre des grands espaces en droit international avec interdiction d’intervention pour les puissances étrangères à l’espace, Deutscher Rechtsverlag, Berlin, 1939. L’expression « impératif des grands espaces » ainsi que l’appel aux peuples d’Europe et d’Eurasie sont cités selon l’interprétation de Douguine.
[18] J. von Lohausen, Le courage du pouvoir. Penser en continents, Vowinckel, Berg am See, 1979.
[19] Concernant la seconde affirmation : A. de Benoist, Europe, Tiers monde, même combat, Robert Laffont, Paris, 1986. Première occurrence de la formule « ni Occident ni Orient, mais l’Europe ».
[20] Pacini, Méditerranée multipolaire, op. cit.
[21] G. Marro, dans Douguine, Théorie du monde multipolaire, édition italienne, op. cit.
[22] A. Douguine, Noomachie. Les guerres de l’esprit, Akademičeskij proekt, Moscou, 2014.

Ucrania esta perdiendo, y Europa se niega a verlo

By: A A
10 October 2026 at 15:15

El exanalista de la CIA especializado en Rusia, George Beebe, ha lanzado una advertencia que las cancillerías europeas pretenden ignorar: Kiev está perdiendo la guerra, y los líderes occidentales, incapaces de admitir el fracaso de su estrategia, podrían convertir la derrota en una catástrofe nuclear.

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George Beebe no es un adversario declarado de Occidente. Exanalista de la CIA especializado en Rusia y actual director de estrategia global del Instituto Quincy, conoce la situación rusa desde dentro. Su análisis, publicado por Greater Eurasia, merece aún más atención porque proviene de una fuente incuestionablemente sesgada a favor de Moscú.

Su diagnóstico es inequívoco: la narrativa oficial de una Rusia «estratégicamente derrotada» se está desmoronando sobre el terreno. El ejército ucraniano se encuentra bajo una presión creciente, especialmente por la campaña aérea rusa. Esta realidad militar crea un doble problema para los gobiernos europeos: no solo su estrategia se está volviendo insostenible, sino que además está generando consecuencias políticas internas cada vez más graves.

George Beebe es categórico: una guerra convencional directa entre Europa y Rusia pondría al descubierto profundas debilidades estructurales. Los países europeos carecen de fuerzas terrestres suficientes y presentan importantes deficiencias en logística, transporte, defensa aérea e inteligencia en el campo de batalla. La mayor parte de la infraestructura militar europea depende de Estados Unidos, especialmente en materia de inteligencia y selección de objetivos.

«Si Estados Unidos se mantuviera al margen de una guerra convencional europea con Rusia, Europa se enfrentaría a importantes desventajas militares. Sin embargo, si Estados Unidos interviniera directamente, el peligro sería fundamentalmente diferente, ya que un conflicto directo entre la OTAN y Rusia podría convertirse rápidamente en nuclear. Un conflicto de este tipo sería extraordinariamente destructivo y no tendría vencedor».

Esta ecuación es ineludible: Europa no puede defenderse sola ni soportar las consecuencias de una intervención estadounidense. Está atrapada por su propia dependencia.

El núcleo del análisis de George Beebe reside en lo que él denomina la «trampa rusa»: un sesgo cognitivo occidental que transforma una espiral de seguridad en una profecía autocumplida.

Occidente considera a Rusia una potencia expansionista que debe ser contenida mediante una creciente presión militar. Pero si el conflicto es en realidad una espiral de escalada donde cada bando interpreta las acciones del otro como una amenaza, entonces una mayor presión produce mecánicamente una mayor escalada. Más armas, más despliegues, una retórica más agresiva conducen a respuestas rusas, que a su vez exigen más medidas occidentales.

«El peligro reside en que una política occidental destinada a disuadir a Rusia en realidad exacerbe el problema de seguridad subyacente».

geopoliticarugiente.com

Hormuz and the Looming Economic Catastrophe

By: aletho
10 October 2026 at 15:06

The Trump administration is missing the bigger picture

By Philip Pilkington | The American Conservative | October 9, 2026

In the classic martial arts film Enter the Dragon, Bruce Lee’s character is instructing a young, aspiring fighter. Irritated at the lack of progress his student is making, he points to the sky. “It’s like a finger pointing away to the moon,” he says as the student tries to focus on what his teacher is saying. “Don’t concentrate on the finger,” Lee says, slapping him on the head, “or you will miss all that heavenly glory.” The quote is derived from an old Buddhist text called the Śūraṅgama Sūtra, and the point is clear: Sometimes if you focus on what is immediately in front of you, you can miss the point entirely.

Something like this is happening in Washington, DC, right now. For almost two weeks, the debate around the progress or lack thereof in the Iran War has been focused on activity in the Strait of Hormuz. A whole host of maritime experts have emerged suddenly to inform us that the Trump administration has succeeded in reopening the crucial waterway to shipping. Maximalists are claiming that this means the United States has effectively won the war in the Middle East. Others are making the more modest claim that this reopening of the Strait will solve the looming energy crisis.

These were the two perspectives that most people who were not deeply involved in the debate heard. There was, however, a small but vocal minority who questioned whether the Strait had been opened at all. If Iran had effective fire control over the Strait in spring and summer, they asked, then why would they suddenly lose it now? Almost immediately after this question was raised, Iran settled the debate by striking an enormous number of ships: 12 and counting in less than a week.

To those of us who were paying attention, the whole exercise felt like looking at Lee’s finger as he points to the moon. As these debates unfolded, the market for U.S. Treasury debt continued an epic sell-off. Bloomberg quoted an investment banker who stated that Treasuries were “trading like a meme stock.” U.S. Treasury bonds have now experienced their worst long-run returns in history.

Treasury bonds are not just any old asset. For one, they are the debt of the U.S. government. If they become uninvestable, the capacity for Washington to live beyond its means through debt issuance is open to question. Treasuries are also the benchmark asset for the entire global dollar system that has allowed the U.S. to run enormous deficits for decades. If this asset starts “trading like a meme stock” and generating awful returns, foreigners will opt for something else. This week, the president of the German central bank stated that “the case for further diversification into gold remains significant.” People are talking.

In mid-September, the speaker of the Iranian parliament, Mohammed Bagher Ghalibaf, posted an equation on X. Unusually for an obscure piece of algebra, the post garnered nearly 7 million views. The equation was a modified version of what economists call the “Taylor Rule,” a method that economists and central bankers use when setting central bank interest rates. In normal times, the equation factors in expected future inflation and how much slack is in the economy. But Ghalibaf’s equation—which he called the “Straits Taylor Rule” —included two new variables: the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb, the two waterways currently under fire from Iran and the Houthis in Yemen, respectively.

The equation is a stripped-down representation of Iran’s strategy. By controlling these waterways, Iran and its allied groups have gained control over the global energy market. By squeezing these chokepoints, Iran can assert de facto control over America’s financial markets by pushing up expected inflation. Central banks like the Federal Reserve realize that this is no mere bluff and have already started raising interest rates. Ghalibaf’s equation explains, to a very large extent, why American government debt is currently trading like a meme stock.

Meanwhile, at the same time as these pressures are felt in American financial markets, the real economy is undergoing a squeeze too. Recent reports from the Energy Information Agency suggest that American heating-oil bills are expected to rise by 21 percent this winter. Diesel markets are entering into a genuine crisis, with President Donald Trump floating the prospect of banning diesel exports to ensure that there are no shortages. Diesel is the lifeblood of the American logistics chain. If there are shortages, trains and trucks will not run and goods will not be delivered to shelves. Trump has walked back the diesel export ban for now, after strong-arming the Europeans to dump their oil and diesel reserves, but there is every chance that this option appears back on the table as the crisis worsens. Food prices are rising too, with sugar prices looking particularly worrisome.

Once again, Ghalibaf outlined how this is part of Iran’s overall strategy. In an X post this week, the speaker published a rudimentary graph—coupled with a haunting image of a ghost—showing rising commodity prices and interest rates on one side, and falling consumer confidence, foreign interest in U.S. Treasuries, hyperscaler investment, and housing affordability on the other. The Iranians are not just trying to squeeze the American financial system—they are aiming to put extreme stress on the entire economy—and it looks increasingly like they intend on making this pressure felt before American voters go to the polls on November 3.

The Trump administration has become fixated on the Strait of Hormuz, seeing it as a decisive battlefield on which the U.S. can win the war. But the Strait is merely a means to an end. For Iran, that end is to slowly demolish the American economy and financial system until the pressure becomes too much and the U.S. backs off. The idea that you can “win” such a battle is delusional.

The Strait is merely the finger in Lee’s analogy. It is Iran’s overall economic strategy—the moon—that we should focus on. And when we do, we come to the worrying conclusion that by the time the Trump administration cries uncle, the damage done to the American economy and financial system will be so severe that it could take many, many years to recover.

Original article:  www.thea

Hormuz and the looming economic catastrophe

By: A A
10 October 2026 at 14:05

By Philip PILKINGTON

Join us on Telegram, X, and VK.

Contact us: info@strategic-culture.su

The Trump administration is missing the bigger picture.

In the classic martial arts film Enter the Dragon, Bruce Lee’s character is instructing a young, aspiring fighter. Irritated at the lack of progress his student is making, he points to the sky. “It’s like a finger pointing away to the moon,” he says as the student tries to focus on what his teacher is saying. “Don’t concentrate on the finger,” Lee says, slapping him on the head, “or you will miss all that heavenly glory.” The quote is derived from an old Buddhist text called the Śūraṅgama Sūtra, and the point is clear: Sometimes if you focus on what is immediately in front of you, you can miss the point entirely.

Something like this is happening in Washington, DC, right now. For almost two weeks, the debate around the progress or lack thereof in the Iran War has been focused on activity in the Strait of Hormuz. A whole host of maritime experts have emerged suddenly to inform us that the Trump administration has succeeded in reopening the crucial waterway to shipping. Maximalists are claiming that this means the United States has effectively won the war in the Middle East. Others are making the more modest claim that this reopening of the Strait will solve the looming energy crisis.

These were the two perspectives that most people who were not deeply involved in the debate heard. There was, however, a small but vocal minority who questioned whether the Strait had been opened at all. If Iran had effective fire control over the Strait in spring and summer, they asked, then why would they suddenly lose it now? Almost immediately after this question was raised, Iran settled the debate by striking an enormous number of ships: 12 and counting in less than a week.

To those of us who were paying attention, the whole exercise felt like looking at Lee’s finger as he points to the moon. As these debates unfolded, the market for U.S. Treasury debt continued an epic sell-off. Bloomberg quoted an investment banker who stated that Treasuries were “trading like a meme stock.” U.S. Treasury bonds have now experienced their worst long-run returns in history.

Treasury bonds are not just any old asset. For one, they are the debt of the U.S. government. If they become uninvestable, the capacity for Washington to live beyond its means through debt issuance is open to question. Treasuries are also the benchmark asset for the entire global dollar system that has allowed the U.S. to run enormous deficits for decades. If this asset starts “trading like a meme stock” and generating awful returns, foreigners will opt for something else. This week, the president of the German central bank stated that “the case for further diversification into gold remains significant.” People are talking.

In mid-September, the speaker of the Iranian parliament, Mohammed Bagher Ghalibaf, posted an equation on X. Unusually for an obscure piece of algebra, the post garnered nearly 7 million views. The equation was a modified version of what economists call the “Taylor Rule,” a method that economists and central bankers use when setting central bank interest rates. In normal times, the equation factors in expected future inflation and how much slack is in the economy. But Ghalibaf’s equation—which he called the “Straits Taylor Rule” —included two new variables: the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb, the two waterways currently under fire from Iran and the Houthis in Yemen, respectively.

The equation is a stripped-down representation of Iran’s strategy. By controlling these waterways, Iran and its allied groups have gained control over the global energy market. By squeezing these chokepoints, Iran can assert de facto control over America’s financial markets by pushing up expected inflation. Central banks like the Federal Reserve realize that this is no mere bluff and have already started raising interest rates. Ghalibaf’s equation explains, to a very large extent, why American government debt is currently trading like a meme stock.

Meanwhile, at the same time as these pressures are felt in American financial markets, the real economy is undergoing a squeeze too. Recent reports from the Energy Information Agency suggest that American heating-oil bills are expected to rise by 21 percent this winter. Diesel markets are entering into a genuine crisis, with President Donald Trump floating the prospect of banning diesel exports to ensure that there are no shortages. Diesel is the lifeblood of the American logistics chain. If there are shortages, trains and trucks will not run and goods will not be delivered to shelves. Trump has walked back the diesel export ban for now, after strong-arming the Europeans to dump their oil and diesel reserves, but there is every chance that this option appears back on the table as the crisis worsens. Food prices are rising too, with sugar prices looking particularly worrisome.

Once again, Ghalibaf outlined how this is part of Iran’s overall strategy. In an X post this week, the speaker published a rudimentary graph—coupled with a haunting image of a ghost—showing rising commodity prices and interest rates on one side, and falling consumer confidence, foreign interest in U.S. Treasuries, hyperscaler investment, and housing affordability on the other. The Iranians are not just trying to squeeze the American financial system—they are aiming to put extreme stress on the entire economy—and it looks increasingly like they intend on making this pressure felt before American voters go to the polls on November 3.

The Trump administration has become fixated on the Strait of Hormuz, seeing it as a decisive battlefield on which the U.S. can win the war. But the Strait is merely a means to an end. For Iran, that end is to slowly demolish the American economy and financial system until the pressure becomes too much and the U.S. backs off. The idea that you can “win” such a battle is delusional.

The Strait is merely the finger in Lee’s analogy. It is Iran’s overall economic strategy—the moon—that we should focus on. And when we do, we come to the worrying conclusion that by the time the Trump administration cries uncle, the damage done to the American economy and financial system will be so severe that it could take many, many years to recover.

Original article:  www.theamericanconservative.com

Putin Conveys to Trump Iran’s Vision on Possible Conflict Resolution – Kremlin

By: aletho
10 October 2026 at 13:17
Sputnik – 10.10.2026

MOSCOW – Russian President Vladimir Putin conveyed to US President Donald Trump, in coordination with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, Iran’s vision on a possible resolution of the conflict, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Saturday.

Putin, during communication on the sidelines of the summit in Turkmenistan, held two meetings with Pezeshkian, at one of which he informed the Iranian president about the upcoming telephone conversation with the US president, the Kremlin spokesman noted.

“And then, in coordination with the Iranian president, Putin conveyed to Trump Iran’s vision on a possible resolution of the conflict,” Peskov said.

During a conversation with Trump, Putin showed understanding regarding some proposals of the US leader aimed at de-escalating the conflict in Ukraine, Peskov said.

At the initiative of Trump, most of the time in the telephone conversation between the leaders, which took place the previous evening, was devoted specifically to the Ukrainian settlement, Peskov added.

When will this White House madness end?

By: A A
10 October 2026 at 13:00

By Philip GIRALDI

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Contact us: info@strategic-culture.su

The United States competes with Israel for the “Most Hated” Distinction

It was another horrific week in Washington with President Donald Trump actually succeeding in coming out with an apparently improvised comment that equaled or maybe even exceeded his ghastly performance at the United Nations where he speculated over whether he should “annihilate” Iran and drive it back into the Stone Age. It would seem that ninety plus million dead Persians would satisfy Donald’s blood lust when it comes to killing innocent civilians, but the latest musing by our beloved leader had him addressing a campaign rally in Nebraska, where he appeared to be declaring that he might well consider wanting to continue the war against Iran even if the price to pay from the Iranians were to be retaliation consisting of eliminating some of our cities. He said “It’s a small price to pay for keeping the world safe, for keeping our country safe, and it’s going to be over with very soon. Let ’em take out Los Angeles, let ’em take out San Diego.”

Trump clearly saw the whole thing as some kind of quid pro quo expecting that even Californians would consider the price to pay worth it if it kept Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon but he failed to make any reasonable connection between the nonexistent weapon and the good to come out of annihilation of millions of Americans. The irony is, of course, that since Iran has no nukes and nor is it even developing that resource, a point generally made by US intelligence, it could not in any event destroy either or both of the West Coast cities. But then again, Trump is not given much to deep thinking and what he tends to say is what is roiling around among the three brain cells that might actually be functioning in his oversize head at any moment.

Interestingly, the video recording the gathering shows the Nebraska crowd of MAGA supporters cheering the exchange, seemingly unaware that the war never needed to be fought, that Iran was not and is not any military threat to the United States, and that the whole bloody thing could be ended by Trump repeating his frequent declaration of “victory” before ordering all the troops home and putting an end to it. That way no one “loses” and no more innocents have to die but somehow that does not appear to be an option circulating in the White House.

In the wake of the comment, both California’s Democratic Governor Gavin Newsom and San Diego Republican Mayor Todd Gloria called out President Trump for his willing to see Americans die in large numbers due to bad policies coming out of Washington. Newsom wrote on social media how “After sending the National Guard to occupy California, Donald Trump is now saying our foreign enemies should ‘take out’ Los Angeles and San Diego. He is deranged and dangerous.” Gloria added “San Diego is not collateral damage. We are not expendable. And we are never a ‘small price to pay.’ Keep our city out of your reckless war talk.”

The White House inevitably pushed back in support of Trump’s comments, with communications director Steven Cheung writing on social media how “The media freakout over President Trump’s comments is not rooted in reality. He was clearly stating US cities would have been threatened if a nuclear Iran hadn’t been stopped. America is safer because of the President. Iran has no nuclear, no navy, no air force, and no money.” Interestingly, Trump’s communications director, who interpreted the comment backwards by claiming falsely that the president had “stopped” an Iranian nuke, was incapable of understanding what Trump actually said and instead invented what he might have been wanting to say. All of which explains why the White House is as dysfunctional as it is.

Beyond that, something at least veering towards a bit of constructive policy did take place on September 30th when the United States completed its troop withdrawal from Iraq, which it has been de facto occupying for the past 23 years. The withdrawal, which took place after multiple requests by the Iraqi government, appears to be due to the desire to move US troops out of the effective range of some of the Iranian short range-missiles and drones which could easily reach Iraq. The soldiers and airmen will be moving to next door Jordan which means they will still be near enough to intervene if the Iraqis become naughty and do anything that is not perceived as being in American “interests.”

Some will recall that back in January 2020, then President Donald Trump ordered the assassination of the Iranian head of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Qasim Soleimani who had just landed in Baghdad Airport to join in peace talks between his country and the Iraqis. Peace talks are not the sort of thing that Trumpists are good at, particularly if they involve actual or potential enemies of Israel, so Soleimani had to be stopped. The Iraqis are certainly aware that the departure of US soldiers does not mean an end to American intervention, which can indeed be at the point of a gun but which might also be through sanctions and other less kinetic means.

All of which is to suggest that the game is not over yet and Trump is quite capable of doing something very stupid in an attempt to salvage whatever remains from his reputation. What is behind a lot of this nonsense is the evil circle involving Trump himself and his good friends in Israel. Make no mistake that Israel is dedicated to becoming “Greater Israel” while also eliminating its potential enemies in Asia and Africa. And, unlike Iran, it is actually nuclear armed thanks to the material and technology that it stole from the United States before killing President John F Kennedy who tried to stop them. And the witless Donald will do everything in his power to help Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu be reelected, be it because he is being blackmailed or because he loves the man so much. Be that as it may, Trump will cooperate fully with Netanyahu or whoever succeeds him, no matter what. So too will there be the usual consensus on doing everything to please the Jewish state coming from the usual crowd of Israel firsters in Congress, in the mainstream media and among the Foundations that have come to rely on the money and “respect” that comes from inhabiting the same space as those who are beloved by Zion.

For those who have not yet aware of just how deeply the Zionist activists have inserted themselves in the body politic, I would greatly recommend an article put out by the highly respectable Quincy Institute that just appeared this past week written by Kelley Vlahos, the Editor in Chief of Responsible Statecraft. It provides the sordid details of how the Israel Lobby backed up by Jewish billionaires has been able to create and then subvert a conservative movement that originally appeared to support American interests to make them instead do Israel’s bidding. She describes how “The annual confab, [NatCon 2026] ostensibly launched for American conservatives in 2019, is in Jerusalem this week, largely focused on shoring up US support for the Jewish state.” If Israel is successful, it will bring about a proposed US-Israeli integration at the Pentagon and take its place as a “partner” of the United States in defense matters as well as in foreign policy. Make no mistake, Israel will bleed us dry and then discard our carcass without even a backward glance. It will be the end of our country. President Donald J Trump and his predecessor Joe Biden have done much to move this process along and it is to them and the cowards in Congress and the media that we the owe the deep hole that we as a once-upon-a-time proud and independent people will soon find ourselves in.

Original article:  www.unz.com

Washington and Moscow Target the ICC: Different Motives, a Common Beneficiary

10 October 2026 at 11:22

Russia’s demands for the extradition of International Criminal Court judges and Washington’s sweeping sanctions against the institution have converged within days. The two governments have different grievances, but the consequences of their actions increasingly overlap, raising questions about the political relationship between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin and the future of international criminal justice.

Russia and the United States have intensified their campaigns against the International Criminal Court (ICC) almost simultaneously, exposing an increasingly consequential convergence between the policies of Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump.

On 8 October, Moscow demanded the extradition of ICC President Tomoko Akane and eight other current and former officials. The following day, Washington announced sanctions against the court as an institution, extending earlier measures against individual judges and prosecutors.

The timing raises an obvious question: are these independent campaigns arising from different disputes with international justice, or do they reflect a broader political understanding between Washington and Moscow?

There is no publicly established evidence of a coordinated operation or an agreement between Trump and Putin to undermine the ICC. Nevertheless, the strategic consequences of their respective actions are remarkably similar. Both weaken an institution pursuing criminal proceedings against political leaders whom the two governments seek to protect.

Different grievances, overlapping interests

Russia’s hostility towards the ICC is directly connected to the arrest warrant issued against Putin in March 2023 over the alleged unlawful deportation and transfer of Ukrainian children from occupied territories.

The court subsequently issued warrants against senior Russian military commanders, including Sergei Shoigu and Valery Gerasimov, over alleged crimes involving attacks on Ukrainian civilian infrastructure.

Moscow’s response has been to pursue ICC personnel through its own criminal justice system. The latest extradition demands follow convictions handed down in absentia by a Russian court in December 2025.

Washington’s confrontation with the ICC has a different immediate origin. The Trump administration objects to the court’s jurisdiction over American nationals and Israeli officials, particularly following the arrest warrants issued against Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and former defence minister Yoav Gallant.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio has presented the American campaign as a defence of US sovereignty. Yet the sanctions announced on 9 October are not confined to the Israeli proceedings or any investigation involving American personnel.

They target the institution itself, potentially disrupting financial transactions and commercial relationships essential to its operation. This distinction matters because a court-wide restriction necessarily affects investigations beyond those cited by Washington. That includes Ukraine.

The Anchorage question

The political context cannot be separated from the relationship between Trump and Putin, including their meeting in Anchorage, Alaska, in August 2025.

The summit formed part of Trump’s efforts to negotiate directly with Moscow over the war in Ukraine. The American president has repeatedly treated relations with Putin as a question of diplomatic bargaining, seeking arrangements that might produce an agreement where conventional Western pressure has failed.

Against this background, suggestions that pressure on the ICC might form part of a wider accommodation with Moscow warrant scrutiny. However, the proposition that Trump specifically offered Putin assistance in neutralising the court during their Anchorage discussions remains unsubstantiated. There is no verified public account establishing such a commitment.

A more defensible conclusion is that Washington’s independently declared campaign against the ICC also advances an important Russian interest. For Putin, the benefit is clear. Measures designed to restrict the court’s financial and administrative capacity could complicate investigations into Russian conduct, irrespective of the American administration’s stated intentions.

The relationship therefore need not involve explicit coordination to produce politically significant results.

Why sanctions against the institution matter

The escalation from targeting individual prosecutors to sanctioning the entire ICC represents a substantial change. Previous American measures imposed personal and financial restrictions on selected officials. The latest approach threatens the broader infrastructure upon which international criminal proceedings depend.

The court requires banking facilities, secure communications, technology services and commercial suppliers. American sanctions can reach beyond US territory because of the international financial system’s dependence on dollar transactions and American service providers.

The ICC had already anticipated this vulnerability. According to details disclosed in September, the institution has pursued alternatives to American software and financial services to reduce its exposure.

Nevertheless, operational continuity and investigative effectiveness are not necessarily the same thing. The court may remain formally functional while facing additional costs, delays and restrictions affecting prosecutors, investigators and international cooperation.

For Ukraine, this is particularly significant. The ICC holds and evaluates evidence connected to alleged Russian war crimes, including the deportation of children and attacks on civilian infrastructure. Its proceedings preserve a judicial process independent of whatever diplomatic settlement Washington and Moscow might eventually negotiate.

Weakening that capacity would not invalidate existing warrants or automatically destroy evidence, but it could make the pursuit of accountability more difficult.

Europe’s response and its limitations

The European Union now faces a dispute with Washington over an institution that European governments have spent decades supporting.

On 9 October, eight governments issued a joint statement, reaffirming their support for the ICC and rejecting the American sanctions. The signatories included Germany, France, Italy, the Netherlands, Britain, Japan and Canada.

The European Commission also indicated that the EU was prepared to take measures necessary to preserve the court’s operations. Such assurances are politically important, but they do not automatically resolve the practical consequences of American restrictions.

European financial institutions and technology suppliers must consider their own exposure to US sanctions. Sustaining the court may require alternative payment arrangements, commercial protections and potentially further European regulatory intervention.

The EU has discussed extending its blocking statute to shield European operators from the effects of American sanctions. Whether that mechanism can provide sufficient protection remains uncertain.

The dispute also extends beyond the ICC’s current investigations. Ukraine and the Council of Europe are developing a separate Special Tribunal for the Crime of Aggression, designed to address jurisdictional limitations preventing the ICC from prosecuting Russia’s leadership for the decision to launch the invasion.

The two institutions have distinct legal mandates, although cooperation between them is envisaged. Undermining the ICC would not automatically prevent the special tribunal from operating, but it would weaken an important part of the wider international accountability framework.

A convergence with consequences for Ukraine

Washington and Moscow have not adopted identical positions towards the ICC. Russia seeks to discredit and punish the officials responsible for pursuing Putin. The Trump administration is attempting to restrict the court’s authority and operational capacity, principally in response to proceedings involving Americans and Israelis.

Yet their actions converge at precisely the point where the ICC’s independence becomes politically inconvenient. The distinction between motive and consequence is essential. It would be premature to describe the American sanctions as evidence of a secret bargain struck in Anchorage. It would be equally mistaken to overlook the assistance these measures could provide to Moscow.

The broader concern is that the United States, traditionally central to Western efforts to hold Russia accountable for its invasion of Ukraine, is now applying pressure to one of the principal institutions carrying out that work.

For European governments, the immediate question is no longer simply whether they support the International Criminal Court. It is whether they are prepared to protect its practical independence when the political and financial pressure comes not only from Russia, but also from Washington.

La “regola aurea” dell’Iran

By: A A
10 October 2026 at 10:30

Il controllo iraniano sui passaggi strategici di Hormuz e Bab el-Mandeb si trasforma in un’arma economica capace di influenzare i prezzi dell’energia, alimentare l’inflazione e condizionare le decisioni della Federal Reserve. Teheran dimostra così che la pressione militare e il controllo delle rotte petrolifere possono mettere in difficoltà Washington ben oltre il campo di battaglia.

Segue nostro Telegram.

Nei giorni scorsi, Kpler ha quantificato in almeno 16,5 milioni di barili al giorno l’ammontare medio raggiunto nel mese di settembre dalle esportazioni di petrolio dalla regione del Golfo, nell’ambito di graduale ritorno dei flussi sui livelli prebellici. Una quota significativa dell’output è transitata attraverso lo Stretto di Hormuz, che la scorsa settimana ha registrato volumi medi di greggio in uscita superiori ai 14 milioni di barili al giorno segando un incremento di oltre il 210% rispetto al minimo di circa 4,5 milioni di barili giornalieri di media toccato nel mese di marzo.

Un risultato strabiliante, ascritto generalmente al danneggiamento e/o distruzione dei radar e dei sistemi di comunicazione iraniani situati nelle zone costiere ad opera delle forze statunitensi. Le operazioni di “bonifica” hanno posto le basi per l’instaurazione di un corridoio di navigazione a doppio senso a ridosso delle coste dell’Oman, di cui i mercantili si sono serviti per entrare nel Golfo Persico, imbarcare petrolio, riattraversare lo Stretto e trasferire il carico su navi in attesa al di fuori del passaggio marittimo, sotto la supervisione della Us Navy.

Di questa “rotta sicura” si è avvalsa anche l’Arabia Saudita, specialmente in seguito al danneggiamento in più punti dell’oleodotto East-West ad opera delle milizie irachene. La conduttura aveva assicurato a Riyadh la possibilità di convogliare parte rilevante (4-5 milioni di barili al giorno) della produzione petrolifera verso il porto di Yanbu, sul Mar Rosso, così da aggirare lo Stretto di Hormuz.

L’Iran, di contro, è stato tagliato fuori dal mercato petrolifero globale dal blocco navale statunitense, che accentua le pressioni economiche sulla Repubblica Islamica esercitate dalle sanzioni annunciate lo scorso agosto dal segretario al Tesoro Bessent.

La Repubblica Islamica, hanno concluso gran parte degli analisti, stava rapidamente perdendo il controllo sullo Stretto di Hormuz.

Lo scenario è cambiato radicalmente a partire dal 28 settembre, quando gli iraniani hanno ripreso le operazioni offensive contro le petroliere che si accingevano ad attraversare lo Stretto di Hormuz senza autorizzazione di Teheran. Kpler ha documentato almeno sette attacchi contro navi mercantili, di cui quattro avevano effettuato due o più viaggi di andata e ritorno attraverso lo Stretto di Hormuz a partire da giugno. Nel novero degli obiettivi figurano due Very Large Crude Carrier (Vlcc) gestite dalla Kuwait Oil Tanker Company, in grado di trasportare fino a due milioni di barili di petrolio.

Il 3 ottobre, la divisione navale dei Pasdaran ha lanciato un chiaro avvertimento alle navi intenzionate a percorrere il corridoio allestito dagli Stati Uniti, minacciando di prenderle di mira e distruggerle. «Non fidatevi della Marina statunitense, non utilizzate assolutamente il corridoio meridionale e non mettete a rischio la vostra vita», recitava il messaggio radio trasmesso dalle Guardie Rivoluzionarie su un canale pubblico comunemente impiegato per la navigazione commerciale. Secondo gli specialisti, gli attacchi iraniani starebbero già producendo un impatto negativo, con i primi segnali di un rallentamento dei flussi petroliferi.

La passività con cui Teheran ha assistito alla ripresa dei flussi petroliferi in uscita dal Golfo Persico era quindi frutto di una preciso calcolo politico. Una strozzatura prolungata dell’offerta petrolifera danneggia non soltanto i nemici della Repubblica Islamica, ma anche un grande importatore di idrocarburi alleato come la Cina e la vasta platea di Paesi neutrali che gli iraniani non hanno alcun interesse a inimicarsi.

La riattivazione del traffico attraverso quel cruciale braccio di mare non è per di più coinciso con un crollo delle quotazioni internazionali di petrolio, gas e derivati, i cui prezzi sono rimasti mediamente del 50% più alti rispetto ai livelli pre-bellici. Costi di trasporto elevati (i broker navali stimano che i produttori di petrolio del Golfo Persico sborsino tra i 30 e i 40 milioni di dollari per un viaggio di andata e ritorno attraverso lo Stretto di Hormuz), rincaro delle polizze assicurative, prolungamento dei tempi di riparazione e/o ricostruzione degli impianti energetici del Golfo Persico danneggiati e/o distrutti nell’ambito del conflitto e insufficiente capacità di raffinazione all’interno del sistema globale hanno mantenuto i valori dell’energia sufficientemente alta da imporre conseguenze molto pesanti all’economia globale nel suo complesso e in particolare agli Stati Uniti. Paese in cui i riscaldamenti domestici, i mezzi agricoli, i treni e i camion che percorrono oltre 400 miliardi di miglia ogni anno per trasportare il 73% circa di tutte le merci sono alimentati a diesel. Nella settimana compresa tra il 21 e il 28 settembre, il prezzo del diesel è salito a 6,53 dollari, a fronte dei 3,76 registrati nei giorni antecedenti all’attacco israelo-statunitense contro l’Iran.

Si tratta di un aumento di circa il 74%, che pesa soprattutto sugli agricoltori, chiamati proprio in questo periodo di raccolto a fare maggiore impiego di trattori e mietitrebbie. Devono anche prepararsi alla stagione della semina, accumulando fertilizzanti che provengono in larga parte proprio dalla regione del Golfo Persico. A partire dall’urea, derivato petrolifero il cui prezzo è aumentato dell’80% soltanto tra marzo e aprile.

Anche le compagnie aeree risentono pesantemente dell’instabilità nel quadrante del Golfo, perché le loro flotte consumano carburante speciale derivato dal petrolio. Dopo lo scoppio della guerra, i prezzi del carburante per aerei sono pressoché raddoppiati.

L’inflazione è conseguentemente aumentata, anche a causa del concomitante, frenetico attivismo di Ansarallah. Nell’arco di pochi giorni, la compagine yemenita alleata di Teheran ha strappato al governo internazionalmente riconosciuto di Sana’a il controllo delle aree costiere che si affacciano sullo Stretto di Bab el-Mandeb, imposto il blocco dei porti sauditi, preso di mira petroliere riconducibili al regno e colpito, di concerto con le milizie sciite irachene, il cruciale oleodotto East-West in più punti rendendolo inutilizzabile per quasi due settimane.

L’azzeramento provvisorio dell’export petrolifero saudita si è istantaneamente riverberato sui prezzi internazionali del greggio.

Segno che, controllando i due cruciali punti di strozzatura di Hormuz e Bab el-Mandeb, l’Iran e i suoi alleati regionali esercitano una notevole capacità di influenza sulla quotazione del petrolio e, a ricasco, sulle politiche monetarie di gran parte dei Paesi del mondo. A partire proprio dagli Stati Uniti.

Lo ha sottolineato di recente il presidente del Parlamento iraniano Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, attraverso un sottilissimo post sul suo profilo X in cui presentava versione opportunamente ritoccata dell’equazione elaborata nel 1993 dall’economista di Stanford John Taylor e affermatasi rapidamente come una delle formule di riferimento per le Banche Centrali in materia di determinazione dei tassi di interesse.

Nello specifico, l’equazione mette in relazione il tasso di interesse sui titoli di Stato a dieci anni con l’andamento dell’inflazione e l’output gap, raccomandando di innalzare i tassi di interesse quando l’inflazione supera l’obiettivo del 2% e/o la produzione economica eccede il suo potenziale.

La logica è elementare: tassi di interesse più alti rendono più costoso indebitarsi. Quando il costo del credito aumenta, privati ​​e aziende riducono la propria propensione all’indebitamento e riducono la spesa, raffreddando così la dinamica dei prezzi. Ghalibaf ha integrato a questi dati già ricompresi nell’equazione di Taylor due nuove variabili, rappresentate dallo Stretto di Hormuz (denominato “SOH”) e da quello di Bab el-Mandeb (denominato “BM”) .

Nella “Stratis Taylor Rule” – i = r* + π* + 1.5(π−π*) + 0.5(y−y*) + α(SOH−SOH*) + β(BEM−BEM*), α,β > 0 – coniata da Ghalibaf, i tassi di interesse statunitensi crescono proporzionalmente alla gravità dell’interruzione dei traffici di idrocarburi in questi due nevralgici punti di strozzatura. Alla formula, il presidente del Parlamento iraniano ha accluso un commento: «vediamo se un rialzo dei tassi contribuirà a riaprire lo Stretto di Hormuz o a produrre una singolo barile di petrolio in più. Non si possono risolvere i problemi di un punto di strozzatura con 25 punti base aggiuntivi».

Tradotto: un innalzamento dei tassi di interesse ad opera della Federal Reserve non garantisce la riapertura dei due stretti, né l’aumento dell’offerta di petrolio. In compenso, chi controlla Hormuz e Bab el-Mandeb influisce indirettamente sulla determinazione dei tassi di interesse negli Stati Uniti in quanto titolare della prerogativa di dettare tempi e modi del traffico marittimo. E, quindi, di aumentare discrezionalmente i prezzi petroliferi. Ovvero di far lievitare l’inflazione.

Le dinamiche belliche che di recente hanno interessato la regione del Golfo Persico avvalorano la tesi di Ghalibaf. Nei dieci giorni antecedenti al 16 settembre, data in cui il direttivo della Federal Reserve si sarebbe pronunciato in materia di tassi, gli iraniani hanno preso di mira alcune petroliere nei pressi dello Stretto di Hormuz, mentre Ansarallah ha bersagliato la raffineria saudita di Jizan e assunto il controllo della costa prospiciente lo stretto di Bab el-Mandeb. Parallelamente, uno sciame di droni lanciato dalle milizie sciite irachene ha colpito l’oleodotto East-West, sospingendo il prezzo del petrolio al di sopra della soglia critica dei 100 dollari per barile. Un copione sostanzialmente analogo era andato in scena poche ore prima della riunione del board della Federal Reserve di fine luglio, quando alcuni missili lanciati da Ansarallah avevano centrato due petroliere saudite facendo anche in quel caso salire il prezzo petrolio sopra i 100 dollari.

Il prossimo vertice del direttivo della Federal Reserve è previsto per il 28 ottobre. Si tratta di una data da tenere d’occhio, visti i precedenti.

New Yorkers demand ‘ICE Out’ after Bronx father shot in front of his five-year-old

10 October 2026 at 05:55

Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents shot seven rounds into the vehicle of a New York father while his five-year-old son was in the car on the afternoon of Thursday, October 8. Oscar Belgal, a Dominican man, who had just picked up his son from school, was hit in the neck but survived the shooting.

He is currently being detained by ICE in the Metropolitan Detention Center in Brooklyn after being discharged from the hospital Thursday night. His lawyers have reported that he still has a bullet lodged in his body more than 24 hours after being shot. 

The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) said that they were conducting a “targeted enforcement operation,” calling Belgal a “criminal illegal alien.”

Local officials describe the incident differently. In a press conference, held by immigrant rights groups and officials a couple hours after the shooting, speakers described that disguised agents approached Belgal’s vehicle with their guns drawn. When Belgal started to move his vehicle forward at least one agent opened fire. Video emerged online of one of the agents carrying a large gun that reports say was a modified AR-15.

“They wore construction vests and masks that concealed their faces,” said New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani to press later that night.

“There was no reasonable way to identify them as ICE agents.”

The mayor claimed that he attempted to negotiate with President Trump directly for the release of Belgal, but “those negotiations were unsuccessful.” He then described ICE as “vicious” and “cruel,” saying that ICE undermines public safety.

“This is an agency that must be abolished.”

New York politicians face calls to act against ICE

New York City Public Advocate Jumaane D. Williams said that federal officials would certainly try to justify the shooting by painting a narrative that makes Bengal seem like “the worst human being you ever heard of.” But he emphasized that what actually happened is that a father picking up his child was shot by a federal agency after school dismissal in a residential area.

Later that night, in a separate press conference with the mayor, New York City Police Department (NYPD) Commissioner Jessica Tisch announced that Oscar Belgal had been arrested in 2023. Hecklers and protesters then began disrupting the mayor and the police commissioner, accusing them of demonizing the victim and justifying ICE violence.

“Tisch and the NYPD are effectively running cover for the Trump administration” over the federal shooting of a Dominican father, said Andre Easton, candidate for New York’s 15th Congressional District, in a statement on Friday, October 9.

Easton called on the mayor to back up his call to abolish ICE with action. “He must fully enforce his own Executive Order 13 and kick every ICE agent out of our city.”

He also slammed Ritchie Torres, the current representative of NY-15, for only demanding an investigation into the shooting. Torres’ demands represent a “betrayal of the Bronx.”

The same politicians that built the deportation machine won’t dismantle it, he argued.

“We need a mass movement powerful enough to dismantle it and win full, equal, and permanent rights for all immigrants.”

Sparks of that very movement may already be breaking out in New York.

Movement for ICE out of NY re-emerges

Hours after the shooting, hundreds of New Yorkers took to the streets and marched to the hospital where Belgal was being treated. They carried banners and placards reading “Abolish ICE” and “Full Rights for All Immigrants” and “Justice for Lorenzo, Joan, and All Victims of ICE Terror.”

The protests were met with force by the New York City Police Department, who attacked protesters with barricades, pushing and shoving several, including congressional candidate Darializa Avila Chevalier, and making a handful of arrests.

However, New Yorkers have continued pushing for ICE to leave the city, organizing protests on Friday and Saturday.

ICE strikes again

The shooting in New York is yet another in a series of ICE shootings across the United States, including the killings of Renee Nicole Good and Alex Pretti in Minneapolis, Lorenzo Salgado Araujo in Houston, and Joan Sebastián Durán Guerrero in Maine. Each of these cases has left families and communities traumatized and provoked eruptions in the movement against ICE violence.

Now in New York, demonstrators are elevating the pressure on their elected officials and making a distinction between mere demands for investigation and concrete action that ends ICE operations and takes steps toward abolition.

The Search for Truth: Charlie Kirk’s Assassination One Year Later

By: aletho
10 October 2026 at 04:01
International Center for 9/11 Justice – October 9, 2026

One year after Charlie Kirk’s assassination, independent journalist James Lee takes the stage to ask a difficult question: Are there still unanswered questions about what happened—and who gets to investigate them?

Speaking at the 9/11: 25 Years Later conference, Lee examines what he considers inconsistencies and unresolved issues in the case, including the handling of potential evidence, the rapid clearing of the crime scene, questions about the investigation, and the media’s portrayal of the events.

Lee also explores Charlie Kirk’s relationship with Turning Point USA, the organization’s reported shift in funding and political messaging, and Kirk’s publicly expressed frustrations over Israel and its influence on American politics. He raises allegations of possible foreign involvement, which remain unproven in this presentation, and calls for further scrutiny rather than unquestioning acceptance of any single narrative.

The speech expands into a broader argument about free speech, the First Amendment, citizen journalism, and the responsibility of independent researchers to scrutinize institutions and challenge powerful interests. Drawing parallels with the JFK assassination and 9/11, Lee urges audiences to keep asking questions and examining evidence.

Watch the full presentation and decide for yourself which questions deserve further investigation. The allegations and interpretations discussed are those of the speaker and should not be taken as independently verified findings.

Subscribe for more talks, investigative journalism, and presentations from the 9/11: 25 Years Later conference.

When Will This White House Madness End?

By: aletho
9 October 2026 at 22:08

The United States competes with Israel for the “Most Hated” Distinction

By Philip Giraldi • Unz Review • October 8, 2026

It was another horrific week in Washington with President Donald Trump actually succeeding in coming out with an apparently improvised comment that equaled or maybe even exceeded his ghastly performance at the United Nations where he speculated over whether he should “annihilate” Iran and drive it back into the Stone Age. It would seem that ninety plus million dead Persians would satisfy Donald’s blood lust when it comes to killing innocent civilians, but the latest musing by our beloved leader had him addressing a campaign rally in Nebraska, where he appeared to be declaring that he might well consider wanting to continue the war against Iran even if the price to pay from the Iranians were to be retaliation consisting of eliminating some of our cities. He said “It’s a small price to pay for keeping the world safe, for keeping our country safe, and it’s going to be over with very soon. Let ’em take out Los Angeles, let ’em take out San Diego.”

Trump clearly saw the whole thing as some kind of quid pro quo expecting that even Californians would consider the price to pay worth it if it kept Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon but he failed to make any reasonable connection between the nonexistent weapon and the good to come out of annihilation of millions of Americans. The irony is, of course, that since Iran has no nukes and nor is it even developing that resource, a point generally made by US intelligence, it could not in any event destroy either or both of the West Coast cities. But then again, Trump is not given much to deep thinking and what he tends to say is what is roiling around among the three brain cells that might actually be functioning in his oversize head at any moment.

Interestingly, the video recording the gathering shows the Nebraska crowd of MAGA supporters cheering the exchange, seemingly unaware that the war never needed to be fought, that Iran was not and is not any military threat to the United States, and that the whole bloody thing could be ended by Trump repeating his frequent declaration of “victory” before ordering all the troops home and putting an end to it. That way no one “loses” and no more innocents have to die but somehow that does not appear to be an option circulating in the White House.

In the wake of the comment, both California’s Democratic Governor Gavin Newsom and San Diego Republican Mayor Todd Gloria called out President Trump for his willingness to see Americans die in large numbers due to bad policies coming out of Washington. Newsom wrote on social media how “After sending the National Guard to occupy California, Donald Trump is now saying our foreign enemies should ‘take out’ Los Angeles and San Diego. He is deranged and dangerous.” Gloria added “San Diego is not collateral damage. We are not expendable. And we are never a ‘small price to pay.’ Keep our city out of your reckless war talk.”

The White House inevitably pushed back in support of Trump’s comments, with communications director Steven Cheung writing on social media how “The media freakout over President Trump’s comments is not rooted in reality. He was clearly stating US cities would have been threatened if a nuclear Iran hadn’t been stopped. America is safer because of the President. Iran has no nuclear, no navy, no air force, and no money.” Interestingly, Trump’s communications director, who interpreted the comment backwards by claiming falsely that the president had “stopped” an Iranian nuke, was incapable of understanding what Trump actually said and instead invented what he might have been wanting to say. All of which explains why the White House is as dysfunctional as it is.

Beyond that, something at least veering towards a bit of constructive policy did take place on September 30th when the United States completed its troop withdrawal from Iraq, which it has been de facto occupying for the past 23 years. The withdrawal, which took place after multiple requests by the Iraqi government, appears to be due to the desire to move US troops out of the effective range of some of the Iranian short range-missiles and drones which could easily reach Iraq. The soldiers and airmen will be moving to next door Jordan which means they will still be near enough to intervene if the Iraqis become naughty and do anything that is not perceived as being in American “interests.”

Some will recall that back in January 2020, then President Donald Trump ordered the assassination of the Iranian head of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Qasim Soleimani who had just landed in Baghdad Airport to join in peace talks between his country and the Iraqis. Peace talks are not the sort of thing that Trumpists are good at, particularly if they involve actual or potential enemies of Israel, so Soleimani had to be stopped. The Iraqis are certainly aware that the departure of US soldiers does not mean an end to American intervention, which can indeed be at the point of a gun but which might also be through sanctions and other less kinetic means.

All of which is to suggest that the game is not over yet and Trump is quite capable of doing something very stupid in an attempt to salvage whatever remains from his reputation. What is behind a lot of this nonsense is the evil circle involving Trump himself and his good friends in Israel. Make no mistake that Israel is dedicated to becoming “Greater Israel” while also eliminating its potential enemies in Asia and Africa. And, unlike Iran, it is actually nuclear armed thanks to the material and technology that it stole from the United States before killing President John F Kennedy who tried to stop them. And the witless Donald will do everything in his power to help Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu be reelected, be it because he is being blackmailed or because he loves the man so much. Be that as it may, Trump will cooperate fully with Netanyahu or whoever succeeds him, no matter what. So too will there be the usual consensus on doing everything to please the Jewish state coming from the usual crowd of Israel firsters in Congress, in the mainstream media and among the Foundations that have come to rely on the money and “respect” that comes from inhabiting the same space as those who are beloved by Zion.

For those who are not yet aware of just how deeply the Zionist activists have inserted themselves in the body politic, I would greatly recommend an article put out by the highly respectable Quincy Institute that just appeared this past week written by Kelley Vlahos, the Editor in Chief of Responsible Statecraft. It provides the sordid details of how the Israel Lobby backed up by Jewish billionaires has been able to create and then subvert a conservative movement that originally appeared to support American interests to make them instead do Israel’s bidding. She describes how “The annual confab, [NatCon 2026] ostensibly launched for American conservatives in 2019, is in Jerusalem this week, largely focused on shoring up US support for the Jewish state.” If Israel is successful, it will bring about a proposed US-Israeli integration at the Pentagon and take its place as a “partner” of the United States in defense matters as well as in foreign policy. Make no mistake, Israel will bleed us dry and then discard our carcass without even a backward glance. It will be the end of our country. President Donald J Trump and his predecessor Joe Biden have done much to move this process along and it is to them and the cowards in Congress and the media that we the owe the deep hole that we as a once-upon-a-time proud and independent people will soon find ourselves in.

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