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Trump Refrains from Endorsing Le Pen for the French 2027 Election

He linked protests in France to immigration policy and reiterates warnings to European leaders.

On Tuesday, U.S. President Donald Trump declined to express his electoral support for Marine Le Pen, the French far-right candidate for the 2027 presidential election.

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France Reports 855 Arrests in Paris After Protests

“Well, I don’t know her. I’ve never met her personally. But I thought they treated her badly,” he responded when asked in the Oval Office about a possible endorsement of the National Rally (RN) candidate.

The U.S. president criticized Le Pen’s conviction for embezzling European public funds, which resulted in an electoral ban that was later reduced following an appeal, allowing her to regain the possibility of running for president.

“I would consider that political weaponization. When they did what they did, I thought that, you know, she was leading. But after this, she’s definitely the conservative voice,” Trump said and credited his electoral endorsements with contributing to the rightward shift in several Latin American countries, including Abelardo de la Espriella’s victory in Colombia.

Marine Le Pen would win any runoff in France’s 2027 presidential race, poll finds pic.twitter.com/bMGRxRDRbo

— NewsWire (@NewsWire_US) October 20, 2026

The Republican leader again linked the protests in France to immigration policy and accused the French government of encouraging immigration. He said he had conveyed his warnings to French President Emmanuel Macron, with whom he said he had a good relationship.

“I said, if you don’t stop the immigration problem, you’re not going to have a country left. And I said it to Germany, and I said it to the United Kingdom,” Trump said.

On Oct. 17, thousands of French people took to the streets to protest inflation, the loss of purchasing power and support for U.S.-promoted wars. The protests led to violent clashes with police and property damage in several cities.

teleSUR/ JF

Source: EFE

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Los partidos de Francia se unen para culpar al izquierdista Mélenchon de la violencia

Francia está asediada por las protestas y el vandalismo desatado tras las manifestaciones de las últimas semanas. Unas 800.000 personas salieron en unas 110 marchas a la calle el sábado. Después llegaron los saqueos y los incendios. Murió una persona, y los ayuntamientos de Limoges, Marsella y Lille sufrieron gravísimos daños. Hay más de 2.000 detenidos, y las grandes ciudades de Francia decretaron toques de queda por las noches. El Ejecutivo ha admitido haber perdido el control de la situación, el ministro del Interior presentó su dimisión, aunque fue rechazada por el presidente de la República, Emmanuel Macron. Pero antes de que se apagaran los primeros incendios, la clase política ya tenía un culpable: Jean-Luc Mélenchon.

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Un mujer observa los coches calcinados en una calle de París, este martes.
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After the violence and chaos in France, there’s only one beneficiary: Marine Le Pen | Paul Taylor

The far-right leader’s promise to restore order will appeal to many ahead of next year’s presidential elections – the stakes are suddenly much higher

There is only one clear winner so far from France’s chaos: Marine Le Pen. The violence and rioting that engulfed towns and cities across the country over the weekend, six months before a pivotal presidential election, is a godsend for the hard-right, Eurosceptical, anti-immigration candidate. As buildings burned, shops were looted and police attacked, the rioting largely drowned out peaceful mass protests over the dilapidated state of schools , fuel prices and the cost of living.

Across France and the rest of Europe, people are in shock at scenes of arson and pillage in city centres, the wrecking of symbols of the republic such as the 19th-century town hall in peaceful provincial Limoges and the bust of Marianne in Marseille’s city hall, and the looting of more than 2,000 shops.

Paul Taylor is a senior visiting fellow at the European Policy Centre

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© Photograph: Firas Abdullah/Anadolu/Getty Images

© Photograph: Firas Abdullah/Anadolu/Getty Images

© Photograph: Firas Abdullah/Anadolu/Getty Images

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Francia: la crisi terminale del macronismo e la battaglia per l’Eliseo

Le mobilitazioni del 17 ottobre e le violenze che ne hanno accompagnato la fase finale mostrano una Francia attraversata da una crisi sociale e politica profonda. Mentre il macronismo entra nel suo ultimo semestre, Marine Le Pen e Jean-Luc Mélenchon incarnano due risposte radicalmente opposte alla domanda di rottura.

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Le immagini degli incendi, delle barricate e degli scontri che hanno attraversato la Francia nelle giornate del 17 e 18 ottobre rischiano di nascondere il dato politicamente più importante: centinaia di migliaia di francesi sono scesi in strada contro il carovita, la crisi dei servizi pubblici e il progressivo deterioramento delle condizioni materiali di vita. Il ministero dell’Interno ha contato circa 550.000 partecipanti alla giornata nazionale del 17 ottobre, mentre gli organizzatori ne hanno rivendicati circa 800.000. Una mobilitazione di dimensioni tali da costituire la più importante esplosione di protesta sociale dai tempi della battaglia contro la riforma delle pensioni del 2023.

Il fenomeno sarebbe tuttavia incomprensibile se venisse ridotto ai disordini che hanno segnato la conclusione di numerosi cortei. Lungi dall’essere nata il 17 ottobre, la protesta rappresenta il risultato di un processo cominciato settimane prima nelle scuole e nelle università, quando studenti e liceali hanno iniziato a denunciare classi sovraffollate, carenza di personale, precarietà e progressivo impoverimento dell’istruzione pubblica. Alle mobilitazioni giovanili si sono poi aggiunti sindacati, lavoratori, pensionati e settori del movimento dei gilets jaunes, mentre il rincaro dei carburanti ha agito da detonatore di un malessere sociale molto più ampio.

Tale convergenza conferisce agli avvenimenti un significato politico ben superiore a quello di un’ennesima fiammata di protesta francese. L’Humanité ha descritto il corteo parigino come l’incontro tra generazioni differenti accomunate dalle rivendicazioni sui salari, sul futuro della gioventù e sulla difesa dei servizi pubblici, ma soprattutto dal rifiuto delle politiche seguite dal 2017. In questo senso appare particolarmente significativa l’immagine proposta dal quotidiano della sinistra francese: il macronismo rischia di terminare così come era cominciato, in mezzo ai lacrimogeni e a un conflitto sociale che il potere politico sembra incapace di ricomporre.

Nel tentativo di distogliere l’opinione pubblica dalle ragioni concrete delle proteste, il primo ministro Sébastien Lecornu ha accusato gruppi dell’ultrasinistra di avere deliberatamente organizzato gli incidenti, arrivando a contrapporre il “campo della Repubblica” a quello dei “casseurs” e indirizzando buona parte delle proprie accuse contro La France Insoumise (LFI), nonostante lo stesso leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon avesse invitato esplicitamente i propri sostenitori a non partecipare a saccheggi e devastazioni. Il Rassemblement National (RN), dal canto suo, ha rapidamente trasformato le immagini dei disordini in materiale di propaganda, cercando di associare la protesta sociale a una crisi dell’autorità e alla necessità di restaurare l’ordine.

È una dinamica che rischia di favorire l’estrema destra, ma che non deve far perdere di vista l’origine della crisi. L’aumento del costo della vita, la stagnazione dei salari, il deterioramento dei servizi pubblici e la nuova impostazione austeritaria del bilancio per il 2027 rappresentano il terreno materiale sul quale la protesta è cresciuta.

La risposta televisiva di Emmanuel Macron del 18 ottobre ha mostrato una volta ancora la difficoltà dell’Eliseo a uscire dalla contraddizione che accompagna ormai l’ultimo periodo della sua presidenza. Il capo dello Stato ha riconosciuto la legittimità delle preoccupazioni espresse dai manifestanti, ma ha a sua volta concentrato una parte importante del proprio intervento sulla condanna delle violenze e sulle questioni di ordine pubblico. Ha annunciato consultazioni con studenti, insegnanti, sindacati, parlamentari e rappresentanti delle imprese, senza però indicare immediatamente una svolta economica capace di rispondere alle cause sociali della protesta.

Messi insieme, tutti questi elementi fanno emergere in modo chiaro la dimensione strutturale della crisi del macronismo. Quando Emmanuel Macron conquistò l’Eliseo nel 2017, promise di superare la tradizionale divisione tra destra e sinistra. La sua formula politica avrebbe dovuto sostituire il conflitto ideologico con una gestione pragmatica, europea e modernizzatrice della società francese. Quasi dieci anni dopo, il risultato appare paradossalmente opposto: la Francia non è meno polarizzata, anzi risulta essere molto più polarizzata di quanto fosse all’inizio della presidenza Macron.

La dissoluzione dell’Assemblée nationale nel 2024 aveva già distrutto l’illusione di una maggioranza presidenziale stabile. Da allora la Francia è entrata in una lunga sequenza di governi minoritari, crisi parlamentari e negoziati sul bilancio. Il governo Lecornu resta privo di una maggioranza autonoma, mentre il progetto finanziario per il 2027 è stato accolto con ostilità dalle opposizioni e con crescente nervosismo dai mercati. All’inizio di ottobre i rendimenti del debito francese avevano raggiunto livelli che non si vedevano dai primi anni Duemila, mentre il debito pubblico ha superato il 119% del prodotto interno lordo e la crescita resta debole.

Ma sarebbe riduttivo interpretare questa situazione come una semplice “crisi del debito”. Il problema fondamentale riguarda piuttosto la distribuzione dei costi della crisi. Il governo continua a presentare l’austerità come una necessità tecnica, mentre la sinistra francese sottolinea come essa rappresenti piuttosto una scelta politica precisa: ridurre la spesa sociale e comprimere i servizi pubblici anziché intervenire sulle grandi fortune, sui profitti e sulle ingenti sovvenzioni concesse alle imprese. Da qui nasce la domanda che attraversa una parte consistente delle piazze francesi: chi deve pagare la crisi?

La risposta del RN è radicalmente diversa. Marine Le Pen tenta di trasformare la crisi del macronismo in una crisi dello Stato, dell’immigrazione e dell’ordine pubblico. Il suo partito cerca di intercettare lo stesso malcontento che alimenta le proteste, ma di orientarlo verso una soluzione nazionalista e securitaria. Sul terreno economico, inoltre, il RN sta tentando di rassicurare i mercati: Le Pen ha recentemente promesso forti riduzioni della spesa pubblica qualora conquistasse l’Eliseo, mentre Jordan Bardella ha difeso un piano volto a tagliare circa 140 miliardi di euro di spesa e a ridurre rapidamente deficit e debito. La pretesa dell’estrema destra di rappresentare una rottura sociale con il macronismo entra quindi in contraddizione con un programma economico che contiene anch’esso una pesante componente austeritaria.

Ad ogni modo, i dati demoscopici mostrano quanto questa contrapposizione stia modificando la politica francese. Le rilevazioni pubblicate nelle ultime settimane indicano Marine Le Pen come candidata nettamente più forte al primo turno, ma contemporaneamente mostrano una crescita di Mélenchon e soprattutto una straordinaria solidità della sua base. Un’indagine Ipsos BVA-Cevipof attribuiva in settembre al candidato di LFI tra il 15,5 e il 17% delle intenzioni di voto, ma con livelli molto più alti tra i giovani: fra i 18 e i 24 anni Mélenchon raggiungeva addirittura il 40%. Un sondaggio successivo, riportato da Reuters, ha delineato perfino scenari nei quali Le Pen e Mélenchon si qualificherebbero insieme per il ballottaggio, estromettendo completamente i candidati dell’area centrista.

Naturalmente manca ancora molto alla primavera del 2027 e ogni previsione resta fragile. Marine Le Pen deve inoltre affrontare ancora l’incognita del proprio contenzioso giudiziario, mentre a sinistra rimangono divisioni profonde tra LFI, socialisti, comunisti ed ecologisti. Ma il dato politico è già evidente: il successore di Macron non sembra destinato a provenire dal blocco che ha governato la Francia nell’ultimo decennio.

La battaglia per l’Eliseo sarà quindi molto più di una competizione tra candidati. Sarà uno scontro attorno all’interpretazione stessa del fallimento macronista. L’estrema destra sostiene che la Francia soffra soprattutto per un deficit di autorità, sovranità e controllo. La sinistra radicale individua invece il problema nella crescente disuguaglianza, nell’austerità, nell’indebolimento dei servizi pubblici e nella subordinazione delle scelte economiche agli interessi del grande capitale. Il campo macronista, nel frattempo, fatica sempre più a convincere che la continuazione delle politiche degli ultimi dieci anni possa rappresentare una risposta alla crisi prodotta proprio durante quel decennio.

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Déficit, polarización política y falta de reformas: ¿Por qué la prima de riesgo de Francia se dispara?

Francia afronta su particular otoño caliente, marcado por una fractura política y social, un elevado déficit y un coste de financiación que se encarece día a día. El país afronta la próxima primavera unas elecciones presidenciales, que según los sondeos ganará en primera vuelta la ultraderechista Marine Le Pen. Para entonces, el actual Ejecutivo de Sébastien Lecornu aspira a tener aprobados unos presupuestos de 2027 que incorporan recortes por 54.000 millones de euros y que acaban de llegar a una Asamblea Nacional más dividida que nunca. Una fractura que ya se ha instalado en las calles de decenas de ciudades, donde a las movilizaciones contra el encarecimiento del coste de la vida y la pérdida de poder adquisitivo se han sumado las protestas estudiantiles.

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© Stephanie Lecocq (REUTERS)

Manifestación en París contra el coste de vida y la subida de los carburantes de este fin de semana.
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The Guardian view on France’s protests: a polarised country is in a perilous political moment | Editorial

The scenes of social unrest and violence at the weekend are an ominous portent, ahead of elections which may deliver a far-right presidency

In Emmanuel Macron’s book Revolution, published ahead of the 2017 presidential election that he went on to win, he promised to restore hope to a country that was losing faith in its future. As Mr Macron’s lame-duck second term enters its last phase against a quasi-insurrectionary backdrop of torched public buildings and looted shops, the failure of that political project appears total.

The worst scenes of urban violence for years overshadowed a weekend of protest that gravely undermined what is left of the French president’s authority. As police lost control of the streets, more than 2,000 shops were ransacked. Far-left groups targeted town halls and local buildings, and engaged in pitched battles with the police, whose disastrously heavy-handed response to last week’s high school protests has succeeded only in escalating tensions.

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© Photograph: Thibault Camus/AP

© Photograph: Thibault Camus/AP

© Photograph: Thibault Camus/AP

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França enfrenta onda de violência e governo prepara toque de recolher em cidades

O governo francês anunciou medidas para conter a onda de violência que atingiu diversas cidades do país após manifestações contra o aumento do custo de vida e a deterioração dos serviços públicos. Nesta segunda-feira (19), o primeiro-ministro Sébastien Lecornu pediu que prefeitos adotem toques de recolher em áreas consideradas críticas, enquanto o presidente Emmanuel Macron determinou uma revisão das estratégias de segurança.

Os protestos reuniram mais de 500 mil pessoas no fim de semana, segundo os dados apresentados no balanço das manifestações. Em diferentes cidades, atos inicialmente pacíficos terminaram em confrontos, incêndios, invasões de prédios públicos e saques a estabelecimentos comerciais. Um manifestante morreu, quase mil agentes de segurança ficaram feridos e cerca de 2.400 pessoas foram detidas.

A dimensão dos distúrbios levou o governo a discutir restrições à circulação noturna e à realização de manifestações. Lecornu afirmou que as medidas serão definidas em conjunto com os representantes locais. Marselha já proibiu aglomerações e manifestações entre meio-dia e 20h, enquanto Denain, próxima à fronteira com a Bélgica, estabeleceu toque de recolher noturno até domingo.

O primeiro-ministro descartou, por enquanto, decretar estado de emergência, medida defendida pelo líder dos Republicanos, Bruno Retailleau. Lecornu, no entanto, não excluiu a possibilidade de recorrer ao mecanismo caso as restrições locais não sejam suficientes para conter a violência.

França enfrenta onda de violência e governo prepara toque de recolher em cidades
França tem onda de protestos, incêndios e 272 prisões em apenas um dia | Foto: Rede social

Macron cobra revisão da segurança

Diante da escalada dos confrontos, Macron reconheceu falhas na condução da resposta policial e determinou uma revisão dos procedimentos adotados pelas forças de segurança. O presidente pediu novas estratégias operacionais para impedir a formação de barricadas, os saques e os ataques a estabelecimentos e edifícios públicos.

O ministro do Interior, Laurent Nuñez, admitiu que as autoridades perderam o controle da situação em algumas cidades. Segundo ele, os aproximadamente 60 mil policiais e agentes mobilizados no sábado não conseguiram conter todos os grupos envolvidos nos episódios violentos.

Macron também recusou o pedido de demissão apresentado por Nuñez e cobrou esclarecimentos sobre as falhas de prevenção e inteligência que permitiram a expansão dos distúrbios. Apesar das restrições anunciadas, o ministro afirmou que as medidas não devem afetar a partida entre Paris Saint-Germain e Barcelona, prevista para terça-feira (20), pela Liga dos Campeões.

Manifestações contra o alto custo de vida e a crise na educação se espalham pela França | Foto: Rede social

Louvre fecha as portas após bloqueio

Em Paris, o Museu do Louvre amanheceu fechado nesta segunda-feira após um bloqueio organizado por estudantes da École du Louvre. A direção da instituição confirmou a interrupção das atividades e informou que o fechamento ocorreu em razão da mobilização estudantil.

O movimento também chegou à Sciences Po, universidade localizada no centro da capital, onde estudantes realizaram concentrações e bloquearam acessos. Os atos fazem parte de uma onda de manifestações iniciada semanas antes, com reivindicações por melhores condições nas escolas.

No fim de semana, a mobilização ganhou escala nacional e foi acompanhada por episódios de violência em Paris, Marselha, Lyon e outras cidades. Prédios públicos foram invadidos, uma prefeitura foi incendiada e estabelecimentos comerciais sofreram depredações e saques. Veículos, bicicletas e patinetes também foram queimados.

O impacto econômico preocupa o setor comercial. Mais de 2 mil lojas foram atingidas em todo o país, com prejuízos estimados em centenas de milhões de euros, segundo Alain Di Crescenzo, presidente da Câmara de Comércio. Somente na capital francesa, aproximadamente 400 estabelecimentos foram depredados.

Protesto fecha Louvre, e governo anuncia toques de recolher para conter onda de violência na França | Foto: Divulgação/Rede social

Crise amplia pressão política sobre Macron

A onda de violência também intensificou a disputa política na França, a poucos meses de uma eleição presidencial que não poderá contar com Macron como candidato à reeleição. Marine Le Pen, líder do partido de ultradireita Reunião Nacional, aparece em posição de destaque nas pesquisas de intenção de voto.

Lecornu acusou setores da ultr esquerda de tentar ampliar a instabilidade no país. Le Pen, por sua vez, responsabilizou o partido de Jean-Luc Mélenchon por, segundo ela, legitimar a violência. À esquerda, críticos do governo afirmam que Macron negligenciou as reivindicações sociais que deram origem aos protestos. Já representantes da direita defendem uma reação mais rigorosa contra os responsáveis pelos ataques.

Em artigo publicado no jornal Libération, os prefeitos de Paris, Marselha e Lyon cobraram explicações do governo sobre a preparação das forças de segurança. Os três gestores, ligados à centro-esquerda, afirmaram que a dimensão dos acontecimentos surpreendeu as administrações locais e expôs falhas na proteção de áreas inteiras das cidades.

A crise coloca o governo diante de um duplo desafio: conter os atos de violência e responder às reivindicações que mobilizaram centenas de milhares de pessoas. Enquanto as autoridades avaliam novas restrições, a capacidade de restabelecer a segurança sem ampliar a tensão política permanece no centro do debate nacional.

The post França enfrenta onda de violência e governo prepara toque de recolher em cidades appeared first on Diário da Manhã - O Jornal do leitor Inteligente.

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France’s Unrest Exposes the Failure of Macron’s Centrist Political Model

What began as a student protest over deteriorating schools has developed into a nationwide revolt against economic hardship, political paralysis and declining public services. With the 2027 presidential election approaching, the violence has exposed problems that neither the government nor its principal opponents have convincing plans to resolve.

France’s latest wave of unrest has developed into one of the most serious domestic crises of Emmanuel Macron’s presidency. More than 550,000 people participated in demonstrations on 17 October, according to official estimates, before violence spread through Paris and other major cities. Shops were looted, police confronted rioters, and the historic town hall in Limoges was largely destroyed by fire.

The scale of the destruction prompted emergency government consultations and a televised presidential address. Macron promised to prosecute those responsible, while stopping short of declaring a state of emergency. Yet the immediate security challenge conceals a more difficult political question: why have protests that began with relatively specific demands over education become a confrontation involving such different sections of French society?

From school protests to a national revolt

The movement originated among secondary-school students demanding better facilities, more teachers and improvements in educational standards. Their complaints subsequently attracted trade unions, workers, farmers and elements of the Gilets Jaunes, the Yellow Vest movement that challenged Macron’s government in 2018.

The resulting coalition has no coherent political programme. Students protesting overcrowded classrooms share demonstrations with workers concerned about purchasing power and motorists angered by fuel prices. Their interests are not necessarily compatible, but they reflect a common dissatisfaction with the government’s ability to deliver functioning public services while containing living costs.

This distinction matters. The presence of masked rioters and organised groups engaged in violence does not establish that the hundreds of thousands who demonstrated peacefully supported their actions. Equally, the destruction of public buildings, attacks on police and widespread looting raise legitimate questions about the state’s capacity to maintain public order.

The economic problem behind the protests

At the centre of the discontent lies a structural problem that successive French governments have struggled to confront: the distribution of public expenditure between an ageing population and the services required by younger generations.

A French government budget assessment published in October revealed that pension obligations accounted for approximately 32 per cent of the education ministry’s budget, including €28.5 billion in pension expenditure. These obligations restrict the resources available for other departmental priorities.

France nevertheless remains a substantial spender on education. According to official figures, expenditure reached €199.2 billion in 2025, equivalent to 6.7 per cent of GDP. However, after inflation, the annual increase was only 0.1 per cent.

The issue is therefore not simply how much France spends, but how efficiently resources are allocated and whether expenditure meets changing educational needs.

The OECD’s 2025 PISA assessment found that French pupils’ performance in mathematics and reading had declined compared with 2022. Results were among the country’s lowest recorded, although broadly comparable with the OECD average.

These figures give the student protests a significance extending beyond the immediate condition of classrooms. They raise questions about France’s longer-term economic competitiveness and its capacity to provide younger generations with opportunities comparable to those enjoyed by their predecessors.

The limits of Macron’s reform programme

Macron entered office in 2017 promising to modernise the French economy and overcome the traditional division between left and right. Nearly a decade later, his administration faces a fragmented parliament, constrained public finances and growing resistance to further structural reforms.

The suspension of his pension reform illustrated the difficulty. Raising the retirement age was intended to reduce pressure on the pension system, but parliamentary opposition forced the government to defer the measure until after the presidential election.

The underlying financial pressures have not disappeared. Nor can they be resolved easily through additional spending when public debt, borrowing costs and budgetary obligations already restrict the government’s room for manoeuvre.

This creates an uncomfortable political reality: the state is expected to provide better services, greater purchasing-power protection and stronger security, while the available resources remain limited.

Can the opposition benefit?

The unrest comes approximately six months before the presidential election, with Marine Le Pen’s National Rally and Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s France Unbowed competing to establish themselves as alternatives to Macron’s political centre.

Le Pen has sought to combine support for economic grievances with demands for tougher policing. That position may attract voters concerned by the violence, but it also exposes tensions within a movement that previously supported the Yellow Vest protests.

Mélenchon faces a different difficulty. Supporting demonstrations against government policy is consistent with his political programme, but the involvement of violent groups risks shifting public attention from social demands towards questions of security.

A recent presidential opinion poll even suggested that Le Pen and Mélenchon could contest the final round, illustrating the weakening position of more conventional political alternatives.

Neither, however, can escape the fiscal constraints that have frustrated Macron’s government. A change of president would not automatically provide the resources required to expand public services, reform pensions and reduce the deficit simultaneously.

A wider problem for France and Europe

President Donald Trump has attributed the French unrest to immigration, although the movement’s documented origins lie principally in education, living costs and dissatisfaction with public services. Without established evidence about those responsible for individual acts of violence, broader claims about the demonstrators’ backgrounds remain speculative.

For the European Union, France’s instability carries consequences beyond its domestic political debate. France is central to European defence, fiscal negotiations and support for Ukraine. Sustained political paralysis would complicate its ability to negotiate and implement decisions requiring substantial public expenditure.

The immediate task for Macron’s government is to restore security without allowing the legitimate grievances of peaceful demonstrators to disappear from political consideration. The more difficult task will fall to whoever enters the Élysée in 2027.

France’s crisis is not simply a repetition of the Yellow Vest movement. It reflects a growing conflict over public resources, expectations of the state and the ability of established political institutions to reconcile competing demands.

The violence may subside, but the economic contradictions that brought such different groups onto the streets will remain. The presidential election will determine who inherits them, rather than whether they exist.

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Survey: About half of Muslims and Jews would leave France if Marine Le Pen were to win

Le Pen leads with 32-36%. France’s minorities are preparing their exit.

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According to an Ifop poll for the newspaper Marianne, nearly half of Muslims and Jews would consider leaving the country if Marine Le Pen were to emerge victorious in the presidential election next year. 20% of them would “certainly” do so.

Which candidate would cause you to leave France? This is one of the questions posed by the Ifop poll for Marianne, released on Thursday, October 15. The study reveals that a significant proportion of Muslims and Jews say they are prepared to leave the country if Marine Le Pen wins the 2027 presidential election.

Some 46% of that number are planning “leaving France to settle in another country,” while 20% say they will “certainly” take the plunge. More broadly, 40% of younger French people say they have made plans to leave. Among voters of La France Insoumise, the figure rises to 43%. Furthermore, 44% of Jewish citizens responded that they would consider leaving the country.

Marine Le Pen’s rise to power could create “significant obstacles” and generate “high levels of fear and insecurity,” Francois Kraus, director of the political division at Ifop, explained to journalists. More than eight out of ten Muslims fear an “increase in attacks and discrimination” against them. This concern is particularly relevant in the context of the National Rally’s plan to ban the wearing of the Islamic veil in public spaces. Confirmed at the end of August by MP Jean-Philippe Tanguy, the new measure would impose stiff fines on offenders and is expected to be included in Marine Le Pen’s platform for the 2027 presidential election. To circumvent the legal hurdles that such a ban might encounter, the presidential candidate is reportedly considering putting it to a referendum.

Meanwhile, only 27% of Muslim respondents would be willing to “conceal [their] religious affiliation on a daily basis,” for example, by ceasing to wear the headdress in public (18%). More broadly, 41% of those surveyed, regardless of their religion, would refuse to “respect laws” they consider “unjust.” This distrust affects three out of four Jean-Luc Melenchon voters and nearly half of civil servants (45%). According to the latest Ifop-Fiducial poll, Marine Le Pen maintains a significant lead in the first round. Depending on the scenario, the National Rally candidate is in first place with between 32% and 36% of the total vote.

While Le pen has remained antagonistic towards Islam in France, she has often cast herself as a protector of the Jewish people in the country.

In 2024, she remarked, “The best shield for French people of the Jewish faith is the National Rally. It is the only movement that has the will, the conviction and the means to fight Islamist fundamentalism, which is the major danger facing them.”

Yet, nearly as many Jews said they would leave the country under a Le Pen presidency as Muslims.

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Europe's far right has a Putin problem

Europe's far-right parties grow increasingly divided on something that once united them — sympathies for Vladimir Putin's Russia.

As nationalists and right-wing populists across Western Europe move closer to power, many are seeking to distance themselves from their past admiration for a country waging Europe'

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‘A direct cultural threat’: your questions on the rise of the right across Europe answered

With support for far right politics well established across Europe, how might upcoming elections shape its future? Europe correspondents Jon Henley and Ashifa Kassam answered Reddit users’ questions about their reporting from the continent

Support for far-right parties has been growing across Europe, with radical right, populist parties in coalition governments in Croatia, Czechia, Italy and Finland, and leading in the polls in Austria, Belgium, France and Germany.

The Guardian reported this year that nearly a quarter of voters in Europe voted for far-right parties in their most recent national elections, a fivefold increase since 1995.

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© Composite: Guardian Design

© Composite: Guardian Design

© Composite: Guardian Design

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Le Pen Threatens EU Funding for Ukraine as France’s Budget Crisis Deepens

Marine Le Pen has warned that a future French government could oppose further European financing for Ukraine and withhold part of France’s EU budget contribution, bringing the cost of supporting Kyiv into the 2027 presidential contest.

Marine Le Pen has threatened to challenge future European Union funding for Ukraine, warning that France cannot continue underwriting large financial commitments while confronting its own deteriorating public finances. The National Rally leader has also proposed withholding half of France’s contribution to the EU budget, a confrontation that could place Paris at the centre of a major dispute over European spending.

In an interview published on 14 October, Le Pen questioned the EU’s €90 billion support loan for Ukraine, describing France’s estimated €18 billion share as an excessive burden. She also expressed opposition to the proposed €100 billion financing instrument for Ukraine under the Union’s next seven-year budget, covering 2028 to 2034.

Her intervention comes as EU leaders meet in Brussels to negotiate competing financial priorities, including defence, industrial competitiveness, agricultural subsidies and continued assistance to Kyiv. France’s presidential election in 2027 gives the dispute particular significance: a change of government in Paris could alter the position of one of the Union’s principal financial contributors.

Two funding programmes under pressure

The distinction between the existing Ukraine loan and the proposed future instrument is important to the financial consequences of Le Pen’s position.

The €90 billion package, approved earlier this year, supports Ukraine during 2026 and 2027. According to the European Parliament’s latest assessment, €60 billion is allocated to defence and €30 billion to budgetary assistance. Almost €15 billion had been disbursed by 18 September.

The loan is financed through EU borrowing backed by the Union’s budget. Le Pen’s description of an €18 billion French share should therefore not be confused with an immediate payment of that amount by the French Treasury. The financing arrangements involve collective European commitments and potential future liabilities.

EU Today has previously examined Brussels’ efforts to accelerate the release of Ukraine’s financial assistance as Kyiv faces growing military expenditure and pressure on public services.

The second programme concerns financing beyond 2027. Under the European Commission’s budget proposal, up to €100 billion would be available for Ukraine between 2028 and 2034, with the eventual allocation depending on its requirements. The mechanism would support reconstruction, economic stability and preparations for eventual EU membership.

Le Pen’s opposition therefore extends beyond the immediate cost of the war. It challenges the assumption that the EU will remain a major source of Ukrainian financing throughout the next budgetary cycle.

France’s contribution becomes an electoral issue

The National Rally’s position is closely connected to its domestic economic programme.

As EU Today reported on 6 October, Le Pen has proposed €140 billion in public spending reductions by 2032, alongside measures intended to reduce France’s deficit and stabilise its national debt.

Her programme includes limiting France’s net contribution to the EU budget to €5 billion. The latest threat to withhold part of the country’s payments moves that argument from budgetary reform towards a potential institutional confrontation.

EU contributions are legal obligations established under the Union’s financial framework and own-resources arrangements. A French president could oppose a new seven-year budget, which requires unanimous approval by member states, but could not simply cancel existing payment obligations without encountering legal consequences.

Timing will also be decisive. EU governments are attempting to secure a political agreement on the next budget before the end of 2026, ahead of France’s presidential election. An agreement concluded before a change of government in Paris would constrain the options available to Le Pen.

Ukraine policy exposes a wider contradiction

Le Pen’s latest statements also reveal the limits of the National Rally’s changing position towards Moscow.

In September, Le Pen and party president Jordan Bardella condemned Russian interference and hostile actions against French interests, presenting resistance to such pressure as a matter of French sovereignty.

However, their willingness to condemn Moscow’s conduct does not translate into support for maintaining the present scale of financial assistance to Ukraine.

The consequences for Kyiv would be substantial. European assistance finances civilian government operations and defence procurement while Ukraine devotes much of its domestic revenue to resisting Russia’s invasion.

European Economic Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis has warned that Ukraine’s financial requirements for 2027 remain considerable, with Brussels seeking additional contributions from international partners.

France’s next president will therefore inherit a dispute involving more than the national contribution to Brussels. The decisions taken in Paris could determine whether the EU retains sufficient financial capacity to support Ukraine while financing its own defence, industrial and economic commitments.

For Le Pen, reducing European expenditure offers a potential response to French public debt and voters’ concerns about national spending. For the EU, the same policy could remove a major source of support from Ukraine’s longer-term financing arrangements at a time when European governments are already struggling to agree on their collective obligations.

Main Image: Kremlin.ru
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Europe’s big election season is about to kick off. It could change everything | Nathalie Tocci

If far right nationalists gain power in four big countries simultaneously, we are in for a dramatic Trumpian tilt

When it comes to Europe’s economy or its peace and security, it is obvious that decision-making has to be done largely at the European level to be meaningful. Yet electoral politics is still conducted mostly at the national level. The silver lining of this mismatch is that from country to country in Europe we have governments with different political priorities and leanings. Unlike in the US, where one presidential election can radically change the entire country’s course, as we have seen so vividly under Donald Trump’s leadership, the same drama has not so far unfolded in Europe. This may be about to change.

Pedro Sánchez rolled the dice in Spain last week, calling a snap election for next month after an unholy alliance of the conservative People’s party (PP), the far-right Vox and Catalan pro-independence party Junts blocked his big housing reform package in parliament. If the socialist prime minister, hailed by progressives globally but demonised by Europe’s right and Trump’s US, loses his election gamble, Spain could fall into the hands of a conservative/far-right coalition, which is currently ahead in the polls.

Nathalie Tocci is a Guardian Europe columnist

Continue reading...

© Photograph: Benoît Tessier/Reuters

© Photograph: Benoît Tessier/Reuters

© Photograph: Benoît Tessier/Reuters

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On foreign policy, Marine Le Pen outclasses France’s mainstream

By Eldar MAMEDOV

Join us on Telegram, X, and VK.

Contact us: info@strategic-culture.su

The right-populist leader deserves scrutiny but offers clarity on Russia–Ukraine and Iran.

The frontrunner in France’s 2027 presidential race—Marine Le Pen from the right-wing National Rally party—has laid out foreign-policy views that American supporters of realism and restraint can approve of, regardless of how they feel about the rest of her program.

While the National Rally has been successfully marginalized and kept out of power in recent decades, one shouldn’t take it for granted that the French political establishment will find a way to thwart Le Pen—meaning her views could certainly become policy. The latest polls show the consolidation of her lead: According to Toluna-Harris Interactive, in a runoff she would take 57 percent against the centrist candidate (and a former prime minister under President Emmanuel Macron) Édouard Philippe and a staggering 69 percent against Jean-Luc Mélenchon, a far-left firebrand.

Of course, the spring of 2027, when the elections are to take place, is still a long way off. Political fortunes can change—as the left-wing outlet Mediapart’s recent investigation into old social media posts written by a teenage Jordan Bardella, now the National Rally president, is meant to demonstrate—but the National Rally’s supporters see such attacks as evidence of the establishment’s ill-fated and cynical effort to derail Le Pen.

Whatever you may think of her, at least her foreign policy views are coherent. On Iran, Le Pen—once labeled a “Trump ally”—offered a far clearer assessment than Macron with his equivocations. “We would still need to know what Trump wanted to do there,” Le Pen said. “Because for now, we still do not know what he wanted to do. He clearly has not achieved his war aims and he is setting the whole planet on fire.” While Macron tends to caveat his criticisms of Trump’s war with accusations that Iran has sought to destabilize the Middle East, Le Pen simply condemns the war on grounds that it’s bad for the French people.

She’s also warned of global inflation “that will have consequences for all peoples” and argued it is “better to convince the U.S. not to go and wage war against a country and an ancient civilization, a complicated country, and probably much more powerful than Donald Trump imagined.”

The events have confirmed Le Pen’s judgement. A civilization of 90 million people with millennia of history cannot be simply bombed away, as Trump (and the Republican Party) are learning to their distress heading into a difficult midterm election season. Le Pen is well aware that the people in France, like elsewhere, are paying the price for this adventure.

On Ukraine, Le Pen has been equally direct while diverging from Macron more dramatically. She warned the conflict has only two possible trajectories: “Either NATO is drawn into this war, and it will be the Third World War, or we will witness a hundred years’ war.” She has called for a major peace conference, made clear she is willing to talk to both President Vladimir Putin of Russia and President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine, and insisted that Germany, Poland, and Turkey be brought into the negotiating process.

She has gone even further, promising to halt French military aid to Ukraine, on the grounds that France cannot afford to sustain the amount of assistance Macron has been authorizing. Here she will have to explain herself in greater detail. A blanket cutoff is not a serious policy if the goal is to bring the war to an end as soon as possible—any settlement would require Kiev’s consent, as well as Moscow’s.

But neither can “support Ukraine for as long as it takes” work without a clearly defined end-game, and France’s fiscal situation dictates it cannot remain the default policy. Negotiations with all parties, including Russia, should not be treated as an appeasement or betrayal. Any serious attempt to settle the war would require Ukraine to make painful compromises on its NATO aspirations and territorial integrity, while Russia would have to compromise too on credible security guarantees for Ukraine or at least a greenlight for Kiev to rebuild and maintain a credible conventional military deterrent. Le Pen has identified the problem and signaled openness to unavoidable parts of the solution, but she still needs to explain the strategy.

Compare that with what the mainstream is offering. Macron is playing up the “Russian threat” and apparent hybrid attacks by Moscow against Europe. Meanwhile, according to the well-informed Le Figaro journalist Georges Malbrunot, French intelligence officers, while acknowledging the threat, believe that Macron overstates it. Macron’s aim, Malbrunot writes, would be to “steer the choices of the French ahead of the presidential election, targeting Le Pen and Melenchon—the two extremes that are lenient toward Russia.”

In a similar vein, Le Pen’s center-right rival, Edouard Philippe, lashed out at her, saying that “weakening Ukraine, as Marine Le Pen wishes, is threatening the security of Europe and France. I will do everything to prevent it.”

Then there is Gabriel Attal, Macron’s protégé and a possible successor. He delivered a grand speech in Reims calling for a “United States of Europe.” Europe’s security, he said, is being attacked by Russia, its economy by China, and its values by the United States. The remedy is a federalist utopia that he promises to build in “a matter of years.”

There might be a compelling case for EU nations to deepen their economic and technological integration. But the grandiloquent federalism talk sounds tone-deaf when what the French voters care most about is purchasing power, immigration, and French security.

This is the state of France’s foreign policy debate. The mainstream candidates are frightening voters with threat narratives, selling unachievable federalist fantasies, and equivocating on the U.S. war with Iran. The one major candidate discussing how to end wars rather than prolong them, and how to engage non-Western great powers rather than simply pick “a good” side over “an evil” one, is described by the establishment as extremist.

This does not mean Le Pen deserves uncritical support. Her historic ties to Russia warrant scrutiny, and her promise to halt aid to Ukraine needs to be coupled with a more detailed policy proposal and a broader strategy to end the war.

She is right on Iran, but her party has also forged close ties with Israel, seemingly based on a common antipathy to Islamism and to fend off accusations of antisemitism. On the Middle East, it remains to be seen whether national interest or ideological anti-Islamism will primarily inform her policies should she be elected president. Also, given her party’s lingering toxicity among the French elites, it’s far from clear that a President Le Pen would be able to attract diplomatic talent from the center-right to translate her instincts into workable policies.

But these are debates worth having. It is no longer credible to simply dismiss Le Pen and offer fearmongering and fantasy as a substitute for a debate. Perhaps the French establishment should ask itself an uncomfortable question: Why is it that voices advocating for diplomacy and sanity come from the camps they call “extreme” (both on the right and on the left)? Instead, the mainstream should make the language of diplomacy and peace its own. If it doesn’t, it should not be surprised when voters turn to those who do.

Original article: www.theamericanconservative.com

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Le Pen Sets Out €140bn Spending-Cut Plan as French Debt Dominates 2027 Race

Marine Le Pen has set out plans to cut French public spending by €140 billion by 2032, reduce the deficit and impose a constitutional constraint on future borrowing, placing France’s deteriorating public finances at the centre of the campaign for the 2027 presidential election.

Marine Le Pen has presented a five-year fiscal programme under which a National Rally administration would seek €140 billion in net savings by 2032, restore France’s primary budget balance within 18 months and bring the headline deficit back below the European Union’s three per cent threshold by 2030.

The proposals, presented on Tuesday as Le Pen outlined the financial trajectory she would pursue during a presidential term, come as France faces rising borrowing costs and a public debt ratio approaching 120 per cent of GDP.

The scale of the problem was underlined on the same day by France’s Directorate-General of the Treasury. Its latest report on public debt projects the debt ratio at 119.3 per cent of GDP this year before rising to 121.7 per cent in 2027. Debt stood at 115.7 per cent at the end of 2025.

EU Today has already reported that French borrowing costs and concerns over the sustainability of the country’s finances have begun to weigh on the euro and widen the gap between French and German government bond yields.

Le Pen’s programme is therefore aimed not only at French voters but at financial markets increasingly focused on whether Paris can prevent debt from continuing to rise.

According to the proposals outlined on Tuesday, spending reductions would be concentrated heavily in the first three years of a Le Pen presidency. She would also seek to introduce what she calls a constitutional “golden rule”, requiring successive governments to reduce the budget deficit each year.

The measure would be put to a referendum and is intended to make deficit reduction binding beyond an individual government’s annual budget decisions.

Le Pen has also proposed reducing France’s public debt to around 112 per cent of GDP by 2032. That would reverse the trajectory currently expected by the French government, although the National Rally’s assumptions would depend on its ability to deliver the proposed savings and on economic growth during the next presidential term.

Among the most politically significant proposals is a plan to restrict France’s net contribution to the EU budget to €5 billion. The party argues that some European spending should instead be financed through harmonised taxes on products such as tobacco and alcohol.

Le Pen also expects substantial savings from tighter immigration controls and the introduction of the National Rally’s proposed “national preference” rules for access to parts of the welfare system. Her programme estimates that measures connected with immigration could eventually produce savings of as much as €29 billion annually.

Other elements include changes to pension policy, reductions in corporate and energy taxation, measures against VAT fraud, the abolition of more than 120 taxes and a reduction in the number of state agencies.

The programme marks an attempt by Le Pen to make fiscal policy a central part of a campaign that has until now been dominated largely by immigration, security and questions surrounding France’s political fragmentation.

The timing is significant. Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu’s government has itself introduced a difficult fiscal consolidation programme. The 2027 budget presented by the Finance Ministry envisages €54 billion in measures to improve the public finances, including €43 billion contained directly in the state and social-security budgets.

The government expects the deficit to fall from 5.4 per cent of GDP in 2026 to five per cent next year. It forecasts growth of only 0.5 per cent this year before a recovery to one per cent in 2027.

The debt burden is becoming increasingly costly. Interest payments are expected to reach €91.2 billion in 2027, up from €79.2 billion this year, according to the Finance Ministry. By 2030, total public-sector interest costs are projected to reach 3.7 per cent of GDP.

That gives the presidential campaign an economic dimension that is difficult to separate from France’s relationship with Brussels. Paris remains subject to EU fiscal rules requiring a gradual reduction in its deficit, while any attempt to reduce the French contribution to the EU budget would require negotiations with the other member states.

Le Pen enters that debate from a strong electoral position. Recent polling examined by EU Today has placed her ahead in first-round scenarios for 2027, although the final field remains unsettled. EU Today reported in September that Le Pen was polling between 33 and 36 per cent depending on her opponents.

Her latest intervention shifts part of the campaign onto terrain traditionally associated with the centre-right: public spending, debt and the credibility of France’s finances.

With the government attempting to secure parliamentary support for its own austerity measures and French borrowing costs under closer scrutiny, the question of how the country pays for the state is now moving towards the centre of the contest to succeed Emmanuel Macron.

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‘Unbearable’ – Le Pen condemns viral video of French policewoman hunted and beaten by multicultural youths during violent student blockades

Right-wing National Rally leader Marine Le Pen on Thursday called footage of a young French police officer being chased, knocked down and kicked during high school protests “unbearable,” and said the attackers deserved exemplary punishment. The video comes at a time when 305 police officers have been injured as of Oct. 2 and 400 schools remain closed.

In a post on X, Le Pen wrote: “The image of this young policewoman, pursued by a pack howling its hatred, thrown to the ground and assaulted, is unbearable. These acts deserve exemplary sentences. Let her know that tonight, millions of French people offer her warm support.”

L’image de cette jeune policière, poursuivie par une meute qui hurle sa haine, projetée à terre et molestée, est insoutenable.

Ces faits méritent des peines exemplaires. Qu’elle sache que ce soir, des millions de Français lui apportent un soutien chaleureux.

— Marine Le Pen (@MLP_officiel) October 1, 2026

The clip, which spread rapidly online, shows a lieutenant trainee with the Paris police prefecture being pursued on foot by several people near Avenue Gambetta in the 20th arrondissement. Voices on the recording shout insults, calling her a “bitch,” and scream: “Kill her!”

One person trips her; others then kick her while she is on the ground, according to accounts from the Paris police prefecture and French media. A follow-up video shows the woman being beaten and kicked on the head while on the ground.

10 ans de prison…. Voilà ce qui leur laisserait le temps de réfléchir à leurs actes. https://t.co/gTKwfkVe7S

— Le Jarl (@le_jarl) October 1, 2026

Authorities said the officer had stopped to retrieve a dropped radio during a tense confrontation involving roughly 100 demonstrators and was then overtaken. She later filed a criminal complaint. The Paris prosecutor’s office opened an investigation Friday into group violence against a person holding public authority.

Interior Minister Laurent Nuñez wrote on X that attacking a representative of law and order in this way was intolerable. He said he supported the officer and the 305 other police officers and gendarmes injured in interventions that day, and that those responsible would be found and prosecuted.

Une jeune lieutenant stagiaire de la préfecture de Police a été poursuivie, projetée au sol et agressée par plusieurs individus dans le 20e arrondissement de Paris cet après-midi.
S’en prendre ainsi à une représentante de l’ordre est intolérable.
J’apporte tout mon soutien à…

— Laurent Nuñez (@NunezLaurent) October 1, 2026

The assault occurred amid a wave of high school blockades and demonstrations that have turned violent in several cities, leading to close to 2,000 arrests. Le Pen, president of the National Rally group in the National Assembly and the frontrunner to win the 2027 presidential election, had earlier posted that the unrest was no longer ordinary student protest but organized rioting involving professionals and lawmakers from the left-wing France Unbowed party.

She called for a new anti-rioter law that would make participation in a riot a clearly defined offense.

🇫🇷🔥 BREAKING: Another major school arson attack at Blaise Pascal High School in the French city of Rouen.

The entire entrance is currently in flames.

School staff can only stand and watch it burn.

Follow: @RMXnews https://t.co/WN8wYfNGZl pic.twitter.com/CZ8h1aDO3U

— Remix News & Views (@RMXnews) October 1, 2026

Regional council president Valérie Pécresse likewise described the scenes as urban rioting rather than student demands and said images of the officer being attacked were frightening.

Yesterday, schools were set on fire, fire trucks and firefighters attacked, and teachers beaten. A school leadership team was even doused in gasoline in Marseille. This morning, more arsons have been reported as well as mass looting. There appear to be no signs the protests are slowing down as the weekend approaches.

🇫🇷🔴 JUST IN: More footage of the arson attack on Roger Verlomme High School in Paris.

After the fire is put out, Black youths begin shooting firework mortars at the school.

Follow: @RMXnews pic.twitter.com/B1klTDYtZW

— Remix News & Views (@RMXnews) October 2, 2026

The post ‘Unbearable’ – Le Pen condemns viral video of French policewoman hunted and beaten by multicultural youths during violent student blockades appeared first on Remix News.

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Poutine, le RN et le dévoilement des contradictions mises sous le tapis depuis trop longtemps

Par Thibault de Varenne

Le 17 septembre, Vladimir Poutine signe un décret plaçant les filiales russes d'Auchan, de Leroy Merlin et de Nestlé sous administration d'une société tierce. Le 19, Marine Le Pen et Jordan Bardella publient sur Moscou le communiqué le plus dur de leur carrière politique. Le 21, le Kremlin leur répond qu'il est en désaccord. Trois dates, et une question que personne ne pose : qu'est-ce qui a changé, au juste ?

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Quatre ans de guerre en Ukraine n'y avaient pas suffi. Il aura fallu un décret sur des hypermarchés.

Le 17 septembre, un décret signé de Vladimir Poutine transfère les actifs russes de trois groupes européens — le distributeur Auchan, l'enseigne de bricolage Leroy Merlin, le suisse Nestlé — à une société d'« administration temporaire » nommée L.E.V. Management. Le Kremlin invoque l'appartenance de ces entreprises à des pays « inamicaux ». En clair : l'État russe prend la main sur des biens français sans les acheter. Roland Lescure dénonce la mesure le lendemain.

Le 19, Marine Le Pen et Jordan Bardella publient un communiqué commun. Le Kremlin, écrivent-ils, ne peut « espérer dicter directement ou indirectement la politique de la France par l'intimidation, la menace, la déstabilisation ou la pression psychologique ». Le même jour, dans l'Oise, Bardella qualifie la démarche russe d'hostile et parle, à propos de l'Ukraine, d'un bain de sang.

Le 21, Dmitri Peskov, porte-parole de la présidence russe, se déclare en désaccord catégorique : la Russie ne menace ni la France ni aucun pays européen.

On a appelé cela une brouille. Le mot est mal choisi, et il faut reprendre l'affaire de plus haut pour voir pourquoi.

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Ce qui lie le Rassemblement national à la Russie, et ce qui ne l'y lie pas

Trois choses distinctes sont continuellement confondues dans ce dossier. Les démêler est la condition pour en juger.

Il y a d'abord une dette. En septembre 2014, le Front national obtient un prêt de neuf millions d'euros auprès de la First Czech Russian Bank, établissement fondé à Prague puis installé à Moscou, réputé proche du pouvoir russe. L'affaire est révélée par Mediapart deux mois plus tard. La banque fait faillite en 2016 ; la créance est cédée à une société russe de location de véhicules, puis à Aviazaptchast, une entreprise russe d'aéronautique. Le parti a donc eu, des années durant, un créancier russe. Entendue par la commission d'enquête parlementaire sur les ingérences étrangères, Marine Le Pen a toujours tenu la même ligne : si cela l'avait engagée à quelque chose, elle n'aurait pas signé.

Il y a ensuite une image. En mars 2017, à quelques semaines du premier tour de l'élection présidentielle, la candidate se rend au Kremlin et y serre la main de Vladimir Poutine. La photographie existe. Elle est ressortie à chaque échéance depuis, et elle ressortira.

Il y a enfin une doctrine, et c'est la seule des trois qui relève du débat politique légitime. Le RN conteste le soutien financier français à l'Ukraine au nom de la priorité donnée aux intérêts français. Le 3 septembre, sur BFMTV, Louis Aliot, vice-président du parti et maire de Perpignan, proposait de « couper le robinet » de l'aide à Kiev : tout le monde est à l'os, disait-il en substance, et l'on trouve encore de l'argent pour financer des armes. La formule a valu au parti une volée de bois vert — Gabriel Attal parlant de soumission à des puissances dictatoriales.

Ces trois choses ne pèsent pas du même poids. Une dette est un fait, une photographie est un symbole, une doctrine est une position que l'on peut soutenir ou combattre. Les additionner produit un procès facile ; les distinguer produit une analyse.

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Pourquoi ce n'est pas une brouille

Une brouille suppose une relation, et un différend qui la rompt. Ici, rien de tel.

Le RN n'a rien révisé de son jugement sur la guerre. Il n'a pas annoncé qu'il soutiendrait l'aide à l'Ukraine, ni désavoué son vice-président, ni changé une ligne de son programme. Il a réagi à un acte précis : la saisie de biens français par un décret étranger. Sa doctrine est demeurée exactement la même — la défense des intérêts français d'abord — et c'est précisément cette doctrine qui, appliquée cette fois, l'a conduit à parler dur.

Il y a là une cohérence qu'on refuse de lui reconnaître et qu'il faut pourtant lui

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